We were eliminated from the playoffs last week, and this week we lost to the Lions...at home...against their 3rd string QB. Ugh. Maybe I can take solace in a top 10 draft pick when we go 7-9? Someone smarter than me, please tell me who I need to root for in week 17 for us to have a better draft position. Thankyoumuch.
Well, we were #16 overall, however there are only a few terrible teams this season, so we could move back to 12-14..again.
Win next week (yeah right!) and we're around 20ish ... lose next week (more likely) then we are probably 15ish ... thing that is killing us is our SOS ... we pretty much lose the tie breaker with all the teams around us
I think I have the order correct but I did it based on last week's SOS percentages. There shouldn't be a whole lot of difference though. What it looks like to me is: 1. Even if all the 6-9 teams win next week, I don't think their SOS will change a lot. The chances of our SOS changing much is slim & none which means we lose ties breakers vs. all of them. 2. Of the 7-8 teams, St Louis is still in the playoff hunt & have a solid shot at beating Seattle. Raiders are at KC and have a good shot at a loss. If that scenario holds up, the Pats would pick in front of our 16th pick. Best we can hope for is they both win, we lose & we end up at 15. 3. If the Vikes win out and tie us at 7-9 with us losing to the Pats ... the SOS is to close to call right now. Can't see them beating Philly though so its probably a moot point. 1) Carolina Panthers (2-13) .571 2) Denver Broncos (4-11) .518 3) Buffalo Bills (4-11) .580 4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-11) .585 5) Arizona Cardinals (5 -10) .460 6) San Francisco 49ers (5-10) .487 7) Dallas Cowboys (5-10) .518 8) Houston Texans (5-10) .536 9) Minnesota Vikings (5-9) .536 Game moved to Tuesday 10) Detroit Lions (5-10) .545 11) Cleveland Browns (5-10) .571 12) Seattle Seahawks (6-9) .482 13) Tennessee Titans (6-9) .513 14) Washington Redskins (6-9) .518 15) St Louis Rams (7-8) .438 16) Oakland Raiders (7-8) .469 17) Miami Dolphins (7-8) .536 18) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) .460
More or less, though if the Rams win the NFCW we will move ahead of them, our draft order is the same as our season, mediocre and disappointing...
So pretty much, the most we can hope for is the Rams to win the division and the Raiders to beat the Chiefs next week?
That is about it unless there are some drastic swings in the SOS of the teams at 6-9 right now ... and with 15 games played, I don't see much chance for that happening ... we might get lucky and fall .015 & a couple of the 6-9 teams win and bump their SOS up about the same amount ... then your talking the difference being (+/-) .005ish
Gunner, you rule. And what an insult to injury would it be for the Pats to pick one slot in front of us with that Oakland pick!
You want as many teams tied with same number of wins (if you cant have them have more wins then you).....it may not matter in 1st round based on SoS....but you would rotate to the top in later rounds. So if we have 7 wins, then you want every team with 6 wins to win next week, and you want ever team with 7 wins to win again, but if not, you will be tied and rotate thru the rounds. (In this case, seems like at least the 12th pick in given round if best case scenario (Maybe 11th if MIN wins both)
Wow. That's a really good point. Counter-intuitive, but makes sense to me. Those later rounds are crucial!
Yup, 1st round is what is focused on, but later round rotation can help too. #15 if Oak wins, STL wins, and we dont beat NE. right? (and #14 if MINN wins both its games) possibly depending on SoS.
Eh, Saban was a moron. As long as we land an impact offensive player, or even something like "the best Right Tackle/Center/Tight End available" I'll be happy.
BTW, this year present an extraordinary opportunity to poach off of roster players on the teams that are undergoing coaching changes, with shifting allegatiances some guys who can play will find themselves on the outs, or on practice squads. James Starks would be a solid PS signing off of Green Bay's Practice Squad...
Yeah 16 is the more likely scenario ... another point to look at ... is say there are two other 7-9 teams besides us ... and lets say for example, we come in 2nd of the three teams & have the 16th pick ... that means when it would have been our turn to rotate up and pick at #15 in the 2nd round ... we lose out on it because we already traded it off to Denver.
Bro, bares repeating, tell Ireland to find some guys to compete, he will find them, be it Street FA's, Practice Squad Poaches, CFLers, UFLers. I can think of 3 running backs right now who would be simple additions who could compete to be a starter or fill a role better than what we have currently. What the Dolphins need, this year more so since the Wanny Era passed on Drew Brees and AQ Boldin, is to PROPERLY EVALUATE what we need..they have botched that for the last two seasons.
If he still has a job. Not sure how I would feel if he is let go ... but I got a feeling Ross is gonna clean house.
How crappy would that be if Mark Ingram is already gone and Julio Jones is sitting there and NE takes him? Or ditto on Ingram if Jones is gone. Grrrrr.
Well, the things I am hearing, Ross is cash poor, to turnover and rehire would cost a mint, and then both would have to be paid for not working, that is not something I can see happening..but I have been wrong before..constantly.
Current order with updated SOS: 1 Carolina 2-13 .575 2 Denver 4-11 .508 3Cincinnati 4-11 .579 4 Buffalo 4-11 .583 5 Arizona 5-10 .458 6 San Francisco 5-10 .492 7 Dallas 5-10 .521 8 Houston 5-10 .525 9 Detroit 5-10 .550 10Cleveland 5-10 .575 11 Seattle 6-9 .488 12 Tennessee 6-9 .504 13 Washington 6-9 .513 14 Minnesota 6-9 .542 15 New England (from Oakland) 7-8 .471 16 Miami 7-8 .538
After the early games, it looks like Oakland did us a favor by winning. Detroit beat Minnesota, so that sucks. Go Tennessee and Washington!
Yep, we moved ahead of Oak/NE ... Tenn is tied & Wash is down by 3 ... looks like we'll be picking 15th still though because their SOS will only go down if they win their games.
Wow. Terrible year to be #15 and in need of a QB. There are, what, at least four teams ahead of us who need a QB?
Well, let's see: 1 Carolina - They really need a QB, despite having drafted Clasussen 2 Denver 4-11 - Will they stick with Tebow? 3Cincinnati 4-11 - Will they stick with Carson Palmer? If not, do they draft a QB? 4 Buffalo 4-11 Really need a QB bad. 5 Arizona 5-10 Really need a QB bad 6 San Francisco Really need a QB bad 7 Dallas 5-10 Happy with Romo 8 Houston 5-10 Happy with Schaub 9 Detroit 5-10 Happy with Stafford 10Cleveland Happy with McCoy? 11 Seattle 6-9 Might draft a QB. Hasselbeck is old 12 Tennessee 6-9 Sticking with McNair 13 Washington 6-9 Really need a QB bad 14 Minnesota 6-9 Really need a QB bad 15 New England (from Oakland) 7-8 .471 8-8 16 Miami 7-8 .538 7-9 So, by my estimation, at least 6 teams ahead of us really need a QB bad and another 2 or 3 might go QB as well. That sucks!
I seriously doubt Gabbert will be there at 15, and he's the only 1st round guy I'd want outside of Luck. Newton won't be there and we won't trade up for him. Locker isn't worth a crap, and IMO 15 will be too high to take Mallett. I don't think a QB this year is in our cards. My only hope is the Rams win tonight so that they're not drafting ahead of us where they can snag Blackmon or Julio.
I guess if seattle wins and we end up tied with the Rams we would alternate with them through the later rounds. so would have the 14th pick in the 4th and 6th rounds instead of the 15th in each of those rounds...