1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

So...what's our draft positioning situation?

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by GARDENHEAD, Dec 26, 2010.

  1. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    We were eliminated from the playoffs last week, and this week we lost to the Lions...at home...against their 3rd string QB. Ugh. Maybe I can take solace in a top 10 draft pick when we go 7-9?

    Someone smarter than me, please tell me who I need to root for in week 17 for us to have a better draft position. Thankyoumuch.
     
  2. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Well, we were #16 overall, however there are only a few terrible teams this season, so we could move back to 12-14..again.
     
  3. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

    4,250
    1,262
    0
    Jan 5, 2008
    Mobile, AL
    Win next week (yeah right!) and we're around 20ish ... lose next week (more likely) then we are probably 15ish ... thing that is killing us is our SOS ... we pretty much lose the tie breaker with all the teams around us
     
  4. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

    4,250
    1,262
    0
    Jan 5, 2008
    Mobile, AL
    I think I have the order correct but I did it based on last week's SOS percentages. There shouldn't be a whole lot of difference though.

    What it looks like to me is:

    1. Even if all the 6-9 teams win next week, I don't think their SOS will change a lot. The chances of our SOS changing much is slim & none which means we lose ties breakers vs. all of them.

    2. Of the 7-8 teams, St Louis is still in the playoff hunt & have a solid shot at beating Seattle. Raiders are at KC and have a good shot at a loss. If that scenario holds up, the Pats would pick in front of our 16th pick. :pity: Best we can hope for is they both win, we lose & we end up at 15.

    3. If the Vikes win out and tie us at 7-9 with us losing to the Pats ... the SOS is to close to call right now. Can't see them beating Philly though so its probably a moot point.

    1) Carolina Panthers (2-13) .571
    2) Denver Broncos (4-11) .518
    3) Buffalo Bills (4-11) .580
    4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-11) .585
    5) Arizona Cardinals (5 -10) .460
    6) San Francisco 49ers (5-10) .487
    7) Dallas Cowboys (5-10) .518
    8) Houston Texans (5-10) .536
    9) Minnesota Vikings (5-9) .536 Game moved to Tuesday
    10) Detroit Lions (5-10) .545
    11) Cleveland Browns (5-10) .571
    12) Seattle Seahawks (6-9) .482
    13) Tennessee Titans (6-9) .513
    14) Washington Redskins (6-9) .518
    15) St Louis Rams (7-8) .438
    16) Oakland Raiders (7-8) .469
    17) Miami Dolphins (7-8) .536
    18) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) .460
     
    GARDENHEAD likes this.
  5. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    More or less, though if the Rams win the NFCW we will move ahead of them, our draft order is the same as our season, mediocre and disappointing...
     
    GARDENHEAD and Gunner like this.
  6. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

    4,250
    1,262
    0
    Jan 5, 2008
    Mobile, AL
    Good call, I forgot about that tie breaker with them making the playoffs
     
  7. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    32,925
    41,462
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    So pretty much, the most we can hope for is the Rams to win the division and the Raiders to beat the Chiefs next week?
     
  8. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

    4,250
    1,262
    0
    Jan 5, 2008
    Mobile, AL
    That is about it unless there are some drastic swings in the SOS of the teams at 6-9 right now ... and with 15 games played, I don't see much chance for that happening ... we might get lucky and fall .015 & a couple of the 6-9 teams win and bump their SOS up about the same amount ... then your talking the difference being (+/-) .005ish
     
    sports24/7 likes this.
  9. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    Gunner, you rule.

    And what an insult to injury would it be for the Pats to pick one slot in front of us with that Oakland pick!
     
    ToddsPhins likes this.
  10. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

    22,422
    9,819
    0
    Nov 27, 2007
    DC Metro Area
    You want as many teams tied with same number of wins (if you cant have them have more wins then you).....it may not matter in 1st round based on SoS....but you would rotate to the top in later rounds.

    So if we have 7 wins, then you want every team with 6 wins to win next week, and you want ever team with 7 wins to win again, but if not, you will be tied and rotate thru the rounds. (In this case, seems like at least the 12th pick in given round if best case scenario (Maybe 11th if MIN wins both)
     
  11. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    Wow. That's a really good point. Counter-intuitive, but makes sense to me. Those later rounds are crucial!
     
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    It looks to me that pretty much regardless of what happens next week, we're likely picking #16.
     
  13. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

    22,422
    9,819
    0
    Nov 27, 2007
    DC Metro Area
    Yup, 1st round is what is focused on, but later round rotation can help too.

    #15 if Oak wins, STL wins, and we dont beat NE. right? (and #14 if MINN wins both its games) possibly depending on SoS.
     
  14. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    If memory serves me, that's the slot where we took Jason Allen!
     
  15. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Shushhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
     
    GARDENHEAD likes this.
  16. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Eh, Saban was a moron.

    As long as we land an impact offensive player, or even something like "the best Right Tackle/Center/Tight End available" I'll be happy.
     
  17. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Yes. But also lower if Jacksonville and/or San Diego lose and we win. My money is on #16.
     
  18. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    BTW, this year present an extraordinary opportunity to poach off of roster players on the teams that are undergoing coaching changes, with shifting allegatiances some guys who can play will find themselves on the outs, or on practice squads.

    James Starks would be a solid PS signing off of Green Bay's Practice Squad...
     
  19. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

    4,250
    1,262
    0
    Jan 5, 2008
    Mobile, AL
    Yeah 16 is the more likely scenario ... another point to look at ... is say there are two other 7-9 teams besides us ... and lets say for example, we come in 2nd of the three teams & have the 16th pick ... that means when it would have been our turn to rotate up and pick at #15 in the 2nd round ... we lose out on it because we already traded it off to Denver. :tantrum:
     
  20. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Bro, bares repeating, tell Ireland to find some guys to compete, he will find them, be it Street FA's, Practice Squad Poaches, CFLers, UFLers.

    I can think of 3 running backs right now who would be simple additions who could compete to be a starter or fill a role better than what we have currently.

    What the Dolphins need, this year more so since the Wanny Era passed on Drew Brees and AQ Boldin, is to PROPERLY EVALUATE what we need..they have botched that for the last two seasons.
     
  21. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    Middle of the pack... yay.
     
  22. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

    4,250
    1,262
    0
    Jan 5, 2008
    Mobile, AL
    If he still has a job. Not sure how I would feel if he is let go ... but I got a feeling Ross is gonna clean house.
     
  23. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    How crappy would that be if Mark Ingram is already gone and Julio Jones is sitting there and NE takes him? Or ditto on Ingram if Jones is gone. Grrrrr.
     
  24. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

    99,377
    37,301
    0
    Nov 22, 2007
    inching to 100k posts
    Well, the things I am hearing, Ross is cash poor, to turnover and rehire would cost a mint, and then both would have to be paid for not working, that is not something I can see happening..but I have been wrong before..constantly.
     
  25. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

    4,250
    1,262
    0
    Jan 5, 2008
    Mobile, AL
    Current order with updated SOS:

    1 Carolina 2-13 .575
    2 Denver 4-11 .508
    3Cincinnati 4-11 .579
    4 Buffalo 4-11 .583
    5 Arizona 5-10 .458
    6 San Francisco 5-10 .492
    7 Dallas 5-10 .521
    8 Houston 5-10 .525
    9 Detroit 5-10 .550
    10Cleveland 5-10 .575
    11 Seattle 6-9 .488
    12 Tennessee 6-9 .504
    13 Washington 6-9 .513
    14 Minnesota 6-9 .542
    15 New England (from Oakland) 7-8 .471
    16 Miami 7-8 .538
     
    alen1 likes this.
  26. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    After the early games, it looks like Oakland did us a favor by winning. Detroit beat Minnesota, so that sucks. Go Tennessee and Washington!
     
  27. Gunner

    Gunner Rock Hunter

    4,250
    1,262
    0
    Jan 5, 2008
    Mobile, AL
    Yep, we moved ahead of Oak/NE ... Tenn is tied & Wash is down by 3 ... looks like we'll be picking 15th still though because their SOS will only go down if they win their games.
     
  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    So we're #15.
     
  29. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    Tennessee is giving Indy a real fight.
     
  30. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

    38,949
    20,033
    113
    Nov 28, 2007
    Pembroke Pines, FL
    Wow. Terrible year to be #15 and in need of a QB. There are, what, at least four teams ahead of us who need a QB?
     
  31. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    Well, let's see:

    1 Carolina - They really need a QB, despite having drafted Clasussen
    2 Denver 4-11 - Will they stick with Tebow?
    3Cincinnati 4-11 - Will they stick with Carson Palmer? If not, do they draft a QB?
    4 Buffalo 4-11 Really need a QB bad.
    5 Arizona 5-10 Really need a QB bad
    6 San Francisco Really need a QB bad
    7 Dallas 5-10 Happy with Romo
    8 Houston 5-10 Happy with Schaub
    9 Detroit 5-10 Happy with Stafford
    10Cleveland Happy with McCoy?
    11 Seattle 6-9 Might draft a QB. Hasselbeck is old
    12 Tennessee 6-9 Sticking with McNair
    13 Washington 6-9 Really need a QB bad
    14 Minnesota 6-9 Really need a QB bad
    15 New England (from Oakland) 7-8 .471 8-8
    16 Miami 7-8 .538 7-9

    So, by my estimation, at least 6 teams ahead of us really need a QB bad and another 2 or 3 might go QB as well. That sucks!
     
  32. alen1

    alen1 New Member

    52,811
    20,365
    0
    Dec 16, 2007
    I see maybe five.
     
  33. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    Five is still a lot!
     
  34. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

    21,755
    3,475
    113
    Jan 5, 2008
    Oviedo FL
    I think Buffalo sticks with Fitzpatrick.
     
  35. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

    29,125
    7,721
    0
    Mar 15, 2009
    I seriously doubt Gabbert will be there at 15, and he's the only 1st round guy I'd want outside of Luck. Newton won't be there and we won't trade up for him. Locker isn't worth a crap, and IMO 15 will be too high to take Mallett. I don't think a QB this year is in our cards.

    My only hope is the Rams win tonight so that they're not drafting ahead of us where they can snag Blackmon or Julio.
     
  36. mroz

    mroz Fix the OL Club Member

    25,867
    24,359
    113
    Oct 26, 2008
    SF Bay Area
    and to keep things going for the Fins we are going to be the on 7-9 (unless the rams lose)... lol
     
  37. mroz

    mroz Fix the OL Club Member

    25,867
    24,359
    113
    Oct 26, 2008
    SF Bay Area
    I guess if seattle wins and we end up tied with the Rams we would alternate with them through the later rounds. so would have the 14th pick in the 4th and 6th rounds instead of the 15th in each of those rounds... :)
     
  38. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

    21,755
    3,475
    113
    Jan 5, 2008
    Oviedo FL
    We are now in full draft mode.
     
  39. mroz

    mroz Fix the OL Club Member

    25,867
    24,359
    113
    Oct 26, 2008
    SF Bay Area

    huh?
     
    GARDENHEAD likes this.
  40. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    Oops! Wrong black guy!!! I meant Vince Young!
     
    ToddsPhins likes this.

Share This Page