Some non emotional based thoughts on WR and our 2012 draft/FA (including Jon Martin)

hell yes he wants to..... or in the very least add some major upgrades. He doesn't frustratingly offer up that "fours, fives, and sixes when we need threes, twos, and ones" comment if he doesn't want fix it. Sh**, he's tried all year to get guys in here after the top WR free agents disappeared early in FA. Ireland knows as much as we do that the current WR lineup sucks, or else he wouldn't keep throwing new guys into it.



Give Martin some time, LB. After getting beaten badly early verse Aldon Smith he settled in and played admirably for what-should-be a college senior going against the NFL's premier sack man. He's gonna be fine. There are times to worry about a player, but I don't think this is one of them. Kid's made consistent strides since the first preseason game.

Hartline can stay. Nothing wrong with him per se. What's wrong is when he's a primary guy. If we sign a quality FA and use a 2nd or 3rd rounder on a kid with greater talent, we'll still need someone to help ease the rookie's transition b/c no matter how good the rook is he'll likely not be consistent enough or reliable enough in year 1 to be a guy we want starting. Gotta remember- Hartline can play all 3 WR positions, which is a valuable asset to have..... and if you have other playmakers at WR/TE to serve as the playmakers, then you can use Hartline in roles that pair well with his ability, which is- surprisingly good acceleration off the line paired with the smarts, lateral ability, and route running prowess to gain short-intermediate separation, especially when matched against LBs, safeties, and nickel corners. You don't want him starting on the outside as a primary target or in the redzone, but he CAN play on the outside if it means allowing 2 other solid targets to move around to create matchup advantages like GB has done with Jennings & Nelson. If you dont have a receiver like Hartline who can play all 3 spots (X,Y,Z) then Jennings & Nelson can't be moved around to create favorable matchups, so that should be kept in mind. In this regard Hartline actually has some value; plus he can help move the chains b/c he's tough to cover over the first 10 yards. B/c of all this, if we have to lose either Bess or Hartline, I'd be keeping Hartline. And if we have guys who can score then we won't have to worry about Hartline's inability to do so, right.

 

Jones has a combined 40 TDs & 1st Downs in 74 targets. 54%
Hartline has 42 in 110. 38%


Considering Jordy Nelson & Randall Cobb are in that offense, I'd say Jones's team leading 524 snaps is quite remarkable.
Hartline & Bess would be lucky to have 200.

 

.... and this 1 handed TD in week 6... against HOUSTON?

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-...Can-t-Miss-Play-Houston-Jones-is-your-problem


So you don't think some extra TDs due to a receiver making a play would make a difference in our win-loss totals?

 

How do you get a 4% 1st down difference from:

Hartline--- 37.6%
Jones----- 47.7%
That's a 10% difference.

You can't penalize Jones' first down percentage b/c 9 of his attempts go for TDs.
If you choose to ignore his TD production then you need to remove those 9 TD targets or else you're intentionally skewing the stats.


Jones: 74 targets minus 9 TDs = 65 targets that 1st downs could be had on. Of those, he has 31 first downs.

Hartline: 110 targets minus 1 TD = 109 targets that 1st downs could be converted on. Of those, he converted, 41.

 

So? So are Hartline and Bess. Nobody is arguing that Jones would fill our hole as the team's best receiver for the next 5 years. At his salary he's no more expensive than Bess, and at a 3rd-4th round cost he's likely better than anyone we could've gotten in the draft, and more ready to contribute, too.

Are you arguing that we're just fine this year with only 2 receivers contributing?

Jones would've given the offense better flexibility & scoring opportunities this year, period, and he can make plays after the catch. There would've been absolutely nothing negative about adding him unless you think it's an ideal situation to have the slow, diminutive Bess on the outside, Moore as the #3, and half a dozen FAs scattered throughout the season trying to contribute. You talk like Jones is a liability, which is entirely false. Hartline & Bess would be on the bench in GB, and that's all that needs mentioning.

 

Just what do you think Hartline & Bess would look like if Cobb were here stealing snaps and targets? Actually, Bess would be on the bench.

 

These guys either draw a bunch of coverage in the redzone which opens opportunities for everyone else or they have playmakers around them to rightfully take TDs away, and not just from inside the redzone. Hartline & Bess are neither.

For instance:

• Reggie Wayne. TY Hilton, Donnie Avery, and LaVon Brazill have TDs of 42, 40, 46, 43, 37, 42, and 69 yards which inherently reduces Wayne's scoring potential. That's 7 drives where Wayne didn't get a redzone opportunity b/c the WR POSITION ended a drive early with a 35+ yard TD. No one is "taking away" scores from Hartline & Bess.
• Jason Witten. Dez, Austin, and Ogletree have 11 TD scores of 30, 28, 85, 23, 27, 34, 22, 26, 27, 40, 21.... so of course a TE averaging less than 10 yards/catch will have less scores when 48% of his team's passing TDs occur outside the redzone.
• Steve Smith? Why would you use him as an example? The Panthers offense ranks 23rd.
• Roddy White. Why would Atlanta need to focus on Roddy inside the redzone when they have an elite redzone HOF TE and a beastly redzone threat in Julio Jones to distribute passing scores to? Plus, Roddy on the field doesn't bring down Atlanta's RZ efficiency. He has 7 catches on 15 targets for 4 TDs. Meanwhile Hartline & Bess have 2 catches on 14 attempts for 1 TD, which DOES bring down or RZ efficiency.

Hartline & Bess should be the ones TAKING touchdown opportunities away from everyone else in this offense, if they were any good that is, but that doesn't happen when they have 1 combined TD outside the RZ and then proceed to convert 1 of 14 attempts inside the RZ.

The flaw in your thinking is that just b/c our redzone efficiency is decent you seem to think it wouldn't be improved with a better pair of starting receivers. I mean, honestly, do you think we intentionally tried NOT to convert 13 of 14 attempts to Bess & Hartline inside the RZ? That's a disgusting 7%. No matter how you slice it, 7% is terrible, and even worse than terrible is when it comes from your primary 2 receivers.

 

It's a 10% greater 1st down catch percentage, not 4%. That's not insignificant.

 

you'd spend the pick b/c a) he contributes 1 year before the pick is available.... b) because he's not a 1 year bandaid like Burress.... and c) because there wasn't a better long term contributor available at the time. Why spend a draft pick on anyone then? Why not just give 'em all away and go with nothing but FAs? All a pick is is a commodity used to secure a player of desire.

... and TDs are also clearly dependent upon the player's own ability. Plenty of receivers around the league would've scored on that early pass to Hartline. That non-TD wasn't dependent upon any other factor than Hartline himself. Inside the redzone Hartline has 0 TDs on 10 attempts. Part of that is dependent upon Hartline's lack of natural redzone ability.

Witten has 1 TD b/c Dallas has the opportunity to spread the ball around to true scoring threats, plus nearly 50% of their TD receptions occur outside the RZ.

Hartline & Bess have 2 TDs b/c they suck and force us to find other means to make up for their lack of production & ability.
2 entirely different situations. One involves flexibility & opportunity. The other involves restrictions.

 

I'd say there is.
With only Brandon Marshall to compete with on the outside and zero depth behind him, Hartline could only muster up an average 39 catches, 582 yards, and 1 TD in 2 years.

With the talented Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Donald Driver to compete with and 2nd rounder Cobb grabbing deserved playing time, James Jones still averaged 44 catches, 657 yards, and 6 TDs. Not only did Jones do more, but he did more despite greater overall competition around him... and more competition.

Bess? Cmon. He wouldn't stand a snowball's chance in hell in putting one of the NFL's most dynamic slot players, Cobb, on the bench. The ONLY player in football possibly capable of that feat is Percy Harvin. Bess would've flat out been cut in GB, as they wouldn't keep a backup slot receiver who is a liability on the perimeter and restricts the playbook's potential. Hartline's lack of playmaking ability would put him on GB's bench all by itself.

 

I disagree. Cobb would mostly man the inside, and when Bess's split end spot is upgraded in FA or the draft (as it should be), it would firmly put Bess on the bench in this scenario. There isn't a scenario where Hart or Bess would eat into Cobb's production, but there are numerous scenarios where Cobb eats into one or both of theirs.

 

It's sad really. I can't imagine how much of Philbin's playbook is in a closet somewhere gathering dust.

 

Philbin's first self-imposed chore on the job was to undo his binder and remove a pound of pages to make his walk to and from the parking lot easier.

 

.....moths are getting more use from half the playbook than our starting receivers.