So...what's our draft positioning situation?

Well, we were #16 overall, however there are only a few terrible teams this season, so we could move back to 12-14..again.

Win next week (yeah right!) and we're around 20ish ... lose next week (more likely) then we are probably 15ish ... thing that is killing us is our SOS ... we pretty much lose the tie breaker with all the teams around us

I think I have the order correct but I did it based on last week's SOS percentages. There shouldn't be a whole lot of difference though.

What it looks like to me is:

1. Even if all the 6-9 teams win next week, I don't think their SOS will change a lot. The chances of our SOS changing much is slim & none which means we lose ties breakers vs. all of them.

2. Of the 7-8 teams, St Louis is still in the playoff hunt & have a solid shot at beating Seattle. Raiders are at KC and have a good shot at a loss. If that scenario holds up, the Pats would pick in front of our 16th pick. :pity: Best we can hope for is they both win, we lose & we end up at 15.

3. If the Vikes win out and tie us at 7-9 with us losing to the Pats ... the SOS is to close to call right now. Can't see them beating Philly though so its probably a moot point.

1) Carolina Panthers (2-13) .571
2) Denver Broncos (4-11) .518
3) Buffalo Bills (4-11) .580
4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-11) .585
5) Arizona Cardinals (5 -10) .460
6) San Francisco 49ers (5-10) .487
7) Dallas Cowboys (5-10) .518
8) Houston Texans (5-10) .536
9) Minnesota Vikings (5-9) .536 Game moved to Tuesday
10) Detroit Lions (5-10) .545
11) Cleveland Browns (5-10) .571
12) Seattle Seahawks (6-9) .482
13) Tennessee Titans (6-9) .513
14) Washington Redskins (6-9) .518
15) St Louis Rams (7-8) .438
16) Oakland Raiders (7-8) .469
17) Miami Dolphins (7-8) .536
18) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) .460

"Gunner wrote:

I think I have the order correct but I did it based on last week's SOS percentages. There shouldn't be a whole lot of difference though.

What it looks like to me is:

1. Even if all the 6-9 teams win next week, I don't think their SOS will change a lot. The chances of our SOS changing much is slim & none which means we lose ties breakers vs. all of them.

2. Of the 7-8 teams, St Louis is still in the playoff hunt & have a solid shot at beating Seattle. Raiders are at KC and have a good shot at a loss. If that scenario holds up, the Pats would pick in front of our 16th pick. :pity: Best we can hope for is they both win, we lose & we end up at 15.

3. If the Vikes win out and tie us at 7-9 with us losing to the Pats ... the SOS is to close to call right now. Can't see them beating Philly though so its probably a moot point.

1) Carolina Panthers (2-13) .571
2) Denver Broncos (4-11) .518
3) Buffalo Bills (4-11) .580
4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-11) .585
5) Arizona Cardinals (5 -10) .460
6) San Francisco 49ers (5-10) .487
7) Dallas Cowboys (5-10) .518
8) Houston Texans (5-10) .536
9) Minnesota Vikings (5-9) .536 Game moved to Tuesday
10) Detroit Lions (5-10) .545
11) Cleveland Browns (5-10) .571
12) Seattle Seahawks (6-9) .482
13) Tennessee Titans (6-9) .513
14) Washington Redskins (6-9) .518
15) St Louis Rams (7-8) .438
16) Oakland Raiders (7-8) .469
17) Miami Dolphins (7-8) .536
18) Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) .460

More or less, though if the Rams win the NFCW we will move ahead of them, our draft order is the same as our season, mediocre and disappointing...

"padre31 wrote:

More or less, though if the Rams win the NFCW we will move ahead of them, our draft order is the same as our season, mediocre and disappointing...

Good call, I forgot about that tie breaker with them making the playoffs

So pretty much, the most we can hope for is the Rams to win the division and the Raiders to beat the Chiefs next week?

"sports24/7 wrote:

So pretty much, the most we can hope for is the Rams to win the division and the Raiders to beat the Chiefs next week?

That is about it unless there are some drastic swings in the SOS of the teams at 6-9 right now ... and with 15 games played, I don't see much chance for that happening ... we might get lucky and fall .015 & a couple of the 6-9 teams win and bump their SOS up about the same amount ... then your talking the difference being (+/-) .005ish

Gunner, you rule.

And what an insult to injury would it be for the Pats to pick one slot in front of us with that Oakland pick!

You want as many teams tied with same number of wins (if you cant have them have more wins then you).....it may not matter in 1st round based on SoS....but you would rotate to the top in later rounds.

So if we have 7 wins, then you want every team with 6 wins to win next week, and you want ever team with 7 wins to win again, but if not, you will be tied and rotate thru the rounds. (In this case, seems like at least the 12th pick in given round if best case scenario (Maybe 11th if MIN wins both)

"BigDogsHunt wrote:

You want as many teams tied with same number of wins (if you cant have them have more wins then you).....it may not matter in 1st round based on SoS....but you would rotate to the top in later rounds.

So if we have 7 wins, then you want every team with 6 wins to win next week, and you want ever team with 7 wins to win again, but if not, you will be tied and rotate thru the rounds. (In this case, seems like at least the 12th pick in given round if best case scenario (Maybe 11th if MIN wins both)

Wow. That's a really good point. Counter-intuitive, but makes sense to me. Those later rounds are crucial!

It looks to me that pretty much regardless of what happens next week, we're likely picking #16.

"GARDENHEAD wrote:

Wow. That's a really good point. Counter-intuitive, but makes sense to me. Those later rounds are crucial!

Yup, 1st round is what is focused on, but later round rotation can help too.

"ckparrothead wrote:

It looks to me that pretty much regardless of what happens next week, we're likely picking #16.

#15 if Oak wins, STL wins, and we dont beat NE. right? (and #14 if MINN wins both its games) possibly depending on SoS.

"ckparrothead wrote:

It looks to me that pretty much regardless of what happens next week, we're likely picking #16.

If memory serves me, that's the slot where we took Jason Allen!

"GARDENHEAD wrote:

If memory serves me, that's the slot where we took Jason Allen!

Shushhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

"GARDENHEAD wrote:

If memory serves me, that's the slot where we took Jason Allen!

Eh, Saban was a moron.

As long as we land an impact offensive player, or even something like "the best Right Tackle/Center/Tight End available" I'll be happy.

"BigDogsHunt wrote:

#15 if Oak wins, STL wins, and we dont beat NE. right? (and #14 if MINN wins both its games) possibly depending on SoS.

Yes. But also lower if Jacksonville and/or San Diego lose and we win. My money is on #16.

BTW, this year present an extraordinary opportunity to poach off of roster players on the teams that are undergoing coaching changes, with shifting allegatiances some guys who can play will find themselves on the outs, or on practice squads.

James Starks would be a solid PS signing off of Green Bay's Practice Squad...

Yeah 16 is the more likely scenario ... another point to look at ... is say there are two other 7-9 teams besides us ... and lets say for example, we come in 2nd of the three teams & have the 16th pick ... that means when it would have been our turn to rotate up and pick at #15 in the 2nd round ... we lose out on it because we already traded it off to Denver. :tantrum:

"Gunner wrote:

Yeah 16 is the more likely scenario ... another point to look at ... is say there are two other 7-9 teams besides us ... and lets say for example, we come in 2nd of the three teams & have the 16th pick ... that means when it would have been our turn to rotate up and pick at #15 in the 2nd round ... we lose out on it because we already traded it off to Denver. :tantrum:

Bro, bares repeating, tell Ireland to find some guys to compete, he will find them, be it Street FA's, Practice Squad Poaches, CFLers, UFLers.

I can think of 3 running backs right now who would be simple additions who could compete to be a starter or fill a role better than what we have currently.

What the Dolphins need, this year more so since the Wanny Era passed on Drew Brees and AQ Boldin, is to PROPERLY EVALUATE what we need..they have botched that for the last two seasons.

Middle of the pack... yay.

"padre31 wrote:

Bro, bares repeating, tell Ireland to find some guys to compete, he will find them, be it Street FA's, Practice Squad Poaches, CFLers, UFLers.

I can think of 3 running backs right now who would be simple additions who could compete to be a starter or fill a role better than what we have currently.

What the Dolphins need, this year more so since the Wanny Era passed on Drew Brees and AQ Boldin, is to PROPERLY EVALUATE what we need..they have botched that for the last two seasons.

If he still has a job. Not sure how I would feel if he is let go ... but I got a feeling Ross is gonna clean house.

"GARDENHEAD wrote:

Gunner, you rule.

And what an insult to injury would it be for the Pats to pick one slot in front of us with that Oakland pick!

How crappy would that be if Mark Ingram is already gone and Julio Jones is sitting there and NE takes him? Or ditto on Ingram if Jones is gone. Grrrrr.

"Gunner wrote:

If he still has a job. Not sure how I would feel if he is let go ... but I got a feeling Ross is gonna clean house.

Well, the things I am hearing, Ross is cash poor, to turnover and rehire would cost a mint, and then both would have to be paid for not working, that is not something I can see happening..but I have been wrong before..constantly.

Current order with updated SOS:

1 Carolina 2-13 .575
2 Denver 4-11 .508
3Cincinnati 4-11 .579
4 Buffalo 4-11 .583
5 Arizona 5-10 .458
6 San Francisco 5-10 .492
7 Dallas 5-10 .521
8 Houston 5-10 .525
9 Detroit 5-10 .550
10Cleveland 5-10 .575
11 Seattle 6-9 .488
12 Tennessee 6-9 .504
13 Washington 6-9 .513
14 Minnesota 6-9 .542
15 New England (from Oakland) 7-8 .471
16 Miami 7-8 .538