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Statistical Notes 25% of the way through the 2016 season

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Unlucky 13, Sep 30, 2016.

  1. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    >Here are Ryan Tannehill's numbers through four games in each of his five NFL seasons:

    2012: 80/143, 55.94%, 1046 yards, 2TD, 6INT, 7.31 YPA, 66.4 rating
    2013: 93/142, 65.49%, 1076 yards, 5TD, 5INT, 7.58 YPA, 85.3 rating
    2014: 93/155, 60.00%, 902 yards, 6TD, 3INT, 5.82 YPA, 81.2 rating
    2015: 97/171, 56.73%, 1080 yards, 7TD, 5INT, 6.32 YPA, 77.1 rating
    2016: 88/138, 63.77%, 1081 yards, 6 TD, 5INT, 7.83 YPA, 87.3 rating

    As the numbers show, Tannehill has thrown the fewest passes through four games this year of any of his five seasons. However, he's thrown for the most yards (though obviously very close), the second highest completion percentage, highest yards per attempt, and best rating. Despite what was mostly an ugly game vs the Bengals, and regardless of team record, 2016 has been about as good a start to a season as Tannehill has had in many ways.

    >For whatever reason, he has generally been worse at throwing interceptions early in the year, and then gotten better as the season has progressed.

    2012: 6 in first four games (4.20%), 7 in final 12 (2.05%)
    2013: 5 in first four games (3.52%), 12 in final 12 (2.69%)
    2014: 3 in first four games (1.94%), 9 in final 12 (2.17%)
    2015: 5 in first four games (2.92%), 7 in final 12 (1.69%)
    2016: 5 in first four games (3.62%), ?????

    > Through 4 games played, Dan Marino and Tannehill are the only Miami quarterbacks to ever throw for 1000+ yards. Tannehill now holds the #6 & #7 marks on that list with his last two seasons.

    > Marino and Tannehill are the only Miami QBs to throw for 6+ touchdowns in the first four games twice or more. RT has now done it three times.

    > Through four games of his fifth NFL season, Tannehill now has the 9th most passing yards through five years of any NFL player.

    > If he were to start the final 12 games of the season, he would join only Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco to have started his first 80 games at QB in the NFL.

    ___________________________________________________________________________

    >Jarvis Landry now holds the top two spots in Miami history for most receptions through four games played in a season.

    2015: 28 rec, 270 yards, 9.64 YPC, 0 TD
    2016: 31 rec, 375 yards, 12.10 YPC, 1 TD

    > This season, his 375 yards are good for the 6th most in Dolphins history through four games.

    > Through four games of his third NFL season, he already ranks #8 all time in most receptions through three NFL seasons, with 225.

    The current record for three full seasons is held by AJ Green, with 260. Landry is currently one catch behind Randy Moss and Brandon Marshall, and five behind Larry Fitzgerald.

    > He currently ranks #70 for most rec yards through three seasons, with 2290. 24 players in league history have totaled 3000+ rec yards in their first three seasons.

    > He currently ranks #14 all time among Miami Dolphins in catches. Next up ahead of him are Oronde Gadsden with 227 and Jim Jensen with 229.

    > He is currently #18 in Dolphin history in rec yards. Next up is Bruce Hardy with 2455.

    > He became the 31st Dolphin to ever catch 10+ TD passes.

    ________________________________________________________________________________________

    > Adam Gase has started 1-3 as head coach of the team, and 0-3 on the road.

    Joe Philbin also started 1-3 overall, and 1-2 in his first three road games, before finishing 2-6 on the road in his first season.

    Tony Sparano started 2-2 overall, and 1-2 in his first three road games, before finishing 6-2 on the road his first season.

    Cam Cameron started 0-4 overall, and 0-3 on the road. He did not win a road game.

    Nick Saban started 2-2 overall, and 0-3 on the road, before finishing 4-4 on the road in his first season.

    Dave Wannstedt started 3-1 overall, and 1-2 on the road, before finishing 6-2 on the road his first season.

    Jimmy Johnson started 3-1 overall, and 2-1 on the road, before finishing 4-4 on the road his first season.

    Don Shula started 3-1 overall, and 2-1 on the road, before finishing 4-3 on the road his first season.

    George Wilson started 0-4 overall, and 0-3 on the road, before finishing 1-6 on the road his first season.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Here's something interesting. Tannehill's distribution of completed passes in 2015 (entire season) vs. 2016:
    http://i52i.imgup.net/Passdistri3830.png

    Two things that graph shows:

    1) The difference in Gase's passing offense this year vs. what we had last year is most pronounced by the massive increase in 5 yard completions and the relative decrease in 8-11 yard completions this year.

    2) The reason Tannehill's Y/A is larger this year is primarily due to better efficiency in 25+ yard passes (and.. because the sample size for 25+ yard completions is small there's a question as to whether the improvement is real or not). It turns out the average yards per completion in the 1-25 yard range is identical in 2015 and 2016: around 9.7 Y/C.

    Note that the smaller sample size for the 2016 data means the graph is less "smooth" than for the full 2015 season data so don't compare that aspect of the two graphs.
     
  3. jeremy2020

    jeremy2020 Active Member

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    What's the percent of fans that work very hard to defend a bad qb?
     
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  4. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    No one defended anything.
     
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  5. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I dont blame them, everyone wants a franchise quarterback and some grasp at straws at any talent. They all defended Henne too with the same passion they do for Tannehill.

    We need to wake up faster. There are examples slapping us in the face every sunday from other teams of what a true franchise quarterback looks like.
     
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  6. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    There's nothing to blame anyone for or not.....

    No one, in this thread defended Thill, Gase, Mother Teresa, Obama, the Pillsbury Dough Boy......

    This could be a turning point with how people realize they don't actually pay attention to what they read and decide to do better in the future so the board stops suffering. Take this opportunity.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It is surprising, because the stats don't really seem to jive with what I think I've seen watching games.
     
  8. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Stats have a way of doing that. Take the Seattle game for example...people were all over him for not having stats when he was a dropped pass away from having a statistically solid game. I thought he played much better than those "numbers" told you.

    Then fast forward to Thu night. Stills catches the ball and his 1st half stats? 3-8 81 yards 1TD. Guess what his rating was? 108. When I saw that on the jumbotron I couldn't help but laugh.
     
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  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    What's been killing him, and the team, is how outright awful he's been during the second quarter this season. He and the offense get into a funk while the opposition keeps scoring, we get down on the scoreboard, and then the rest of the game is catchup.

    1st quarter: 106.0 rating, 61.1%, 9.4 YPA
    2nd quarter: 48.2 rating, 52.38%, 5.4 YPA
    3rd quarter: 136.5 rating, 86.21%, 12.6 YPA
    4th quarter: 79.0 rating, 62.22%, 6.9 YPA
    OT: 95.8 rating, 50.0%, 12.50 YPA

    Overall, he has a 65.6 rating, 55% comp, 6.6 YPA in the first half, and a 104.4 rating, 71.62% comp, and 8.6 YPA in the second. The second quarter is just throwing the whole thing into the ditch. And look at that 3rd Q completion percentage. 86.21 through four games! Gase is making the halftime adjustments. RT's two second half interceptions were the final play into the end zone vs New England, and the one with 5 minutes left vs Cin when they were in desperation mode and the game was essentially over. The two second quarter picks have been the killers.
     
  10. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Ryan has been very poor on 3rd downs throughout his career.

    Also coming in to that game we were averaging a whopping 5.5 points per game in the 1st half. This team has a plethora of issues.
     
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  11. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's so easy to get enamored with stats because they are so easily collected but in reality, football is a chaotic game where predicting team success is nearly impossible from the perspective a single individual's play. The complexity means that the casual fan's eye is probably just as good as the deepest statistical analysis when it comes to evaluating who's a star and who isn't when given more than a couple years worth of games. In fact, we're seeing the same topics debated today that were being discussed 3-4 years ago. That shows that stats alone often do not settle even the simplest of debates.

    So much of football really is about scouting players. After all, statistics are meant to measure long-term performance. Passer rating as one example is meant to be applied to seasons and careers, not individual games. And even then, it's a very basic and simple collection of easily found numbers that include completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. We use and abuse small sample sizes far too often and we point to the simplest of numbers when in reality they are not subtle enough to capture what we're really after.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The proper way to measure how good different stats are relative to a human observer is to see which is better at predicting the outcome of future games.

    Thing is, neither side really cares about doing that test. The way stats in sports are often used is mostly post-hoc in the sense that they summarize things after the fact. So you hear about what the passer rating of a QB was AFTER the game is over! Really, one needs to take the passer ratings of the two starting QB's for the previous X number of games they played and use it to make a prediction for the outcome of that game. Quantify the predictive power of statistics from previous games by correlation to win%.

    Same thing with human observers. Who here writes down all their predictions and takes note of how often they are correct? So what really should be done is a side-by-side comparison of human predictive power using no stats, stats alone, and humans using stats to see how well they can predict the outcome of games that haven't yet been played. The result of that kind of study will tell you precisely how good statistical analysis is relative to the eyeball test.
     
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  13. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You are absolutely correct and I'd go a step further in making the link with said stats and football itself. We talk a lot about passer rating and YPA because, as you point out, they correlate well with winning games.

    So the second question is a football question. Namely, what is passer rating measuring in terms of what the QB is doing? We can probably agree that it's too broad a stat to speak to anything in particular. It doesn't even speak to QBs anyhow. It's speaks to offensive production. But what about YPA? That does speak (we think) a bit more to the QB himself. So what exactly does YPA measure? I suspect that it speaks to how many intermediate and deep passes the QB can attempt/complete. So is that a measure of the offense or the QBs risk tolerance or what? And does YPA speak to something which is innately static or can it be improved with a QBs evolution?

    I've always wondered...if you're an OC...and you recognize the value of winning the YPA war...how exactly do you improve it? I think we're seeing a conscious effort to do that but it's creating a weird kind of football where it's beginning to get a little harder to determine who the best teams are. We're seeing teams do everything they can to put their young QBs in a position to succeed...almost at all costs. Maybe I've been in this forum too long but I feel that the game itself is becoming entirely about QBs and QB stat-tracking.

    With the way this season is going I'm getting really interested in see some analysis that dives into the complementary side of football. If a defense is struggling, how well can their offense come to the rescue. Same thing with a defense bailing out an offense.

    In golf, they have a meaningful stat which measures "bounce-back." Namely, what do you average on the hole that follows a bogey or worse? Do you bounce back with a birdie/eagle or do you stay in a rut?

    Based on the eye test, Miami is really good at getting stuck in a rut where as a team like NE appears to be very good at playing complementary football. When they struggle on one side of the ball they seem to make up for it on the other.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    One reason Y/A is a good measure over time (other than its high correlation with win%) is that it seems like it's very difficult to rig the game to improve it. Historically, Y/A has remained very stable. From 1966-2016 it's been bouncing around between 6.5 and 7.3, with it being right smack in the middle today at 6.9 league-wide.

    Passer rating however just keeps increasing, from the average being 64 in 1966 to an average of close to 90 today. Only two things that go into passer rating have steadily changed over time: completion percentage and INT%. Completion percentage is almost a proxy for passer rating because it's the most highly weighted component and its increase directly tracks the increase in passer rating. In 1966 comp% was 51% and today it's 63%. INT% has also gradually decreased from 1.5% in 1966 to 0.9% today, but it's the least weighted component in passer rating.

    Now.. as an OC you have a good deal of control over comp%, and increasing comp% will naturally decrease INT%. So I think the answer to your question is that OC's have recognized that increasing completion percentage is better for the offense given whatever new rules and interpretations of the rules (and better talent at QB) you have in the game today.
     
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  15. bran

    bran Senior Member

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    this whole team is a mess. we can't run the ball, we can't convert third downs on offense, the defense is ****. i have been a tannehill supporter but i have come to the point where if you think gase is the guy, then you need to let him choose who he wants running the offense. if he says at the end of the year he wants a different qb for his offense, you have to do it.
     
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  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Notes after game six:

    The 332 plays run on offense is 27th, and the fewest of any team who's played six games. 97 first downs gained is tied for next to last, ahead of only Minnesota, who's played five games. The team scores on only 23.3% of their posessions, which is dead last, and turns the ball over on 18.3%, which is third from the bottom.

    The team has attempted 188 passes, which is 25th most, and 127 rushes, which is 30th. However, at 6.0 yards per play, the team is tied for 4th in the league. The 1409 passing yards is good for 20th, and the 584 rushing yards is good for 18th. The 4.6 yards per rush is good for 7th in the league.

    The team (in this case, all Tannehill), completes 66% of passes, which is 13th. 8.1 yards per pass attempt is good for being tied for 5th, and 12.3 yards per completion is good for 4th. The 17 sacks allowed is tied for 4th most, and the team has allowed a sack on 8.3% of drop backs, which is second worst.
     
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  17. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    When I was younger I used to be a complete freak about stats and would tout a lot of surface level, volume-based stuff.

    These days I'm more interested in the ones related to critical junctures of a football game. That's when the real cream rises to the top.
     
  18. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Despite allowing teams to run the second most plays vs our defense (419), and gain the sixth most yards from scrimmage (2302), the team has allowed just the 16th most points (134) and is the closest team to the league average. They're also basically league average in yards allowed per play (5.5), Passing yards allowed (1420), passing touchdowns allowed (9), first downs allowed via pass (73), penalty yards (470), and scoring percentage against (37.7).

    The team has had the second most rushing attempts vs their defense (196, which is 32.7 per game), second most rushing yards against (882, which is 147 per game), 8th highest yards per yards per rush vs (4.5), T-3rd most 1st downs allowed via rush (43), and third worst forced turnover percentage (6.6%). The average opposing drive length of 3:00 is next to last.

    The team is currently on pace to allow 2352 rushing yards on the season. Last year's run defense, which was very bad, allowed 2019 rushing yards. The 1-15 2007 club allowed 1813. As best I can tell (as this stat isn't easily sortable), the worst rush defense in Dolphins history was in 1988, when they allowed 2506 yards. The team defense is currently ranked 26th in yards allowed. No Dolphins team has ever finished worse than that ranking.
     
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  19. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    I'd throw these stats away and lobotomize our fanbase if I could.

    The offensive line is much better and the players seem much more comfortable with the playbook.

    Lot less confusion and hesitation. Our defense is playing well with less time on the field. They're still wrecking QB's.

    I'm feeling really good about this team going forward.
     
  20. OkiePhin

    OkiePhin Well-Known Member

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    Stats are pretty fun to look at but I go by what I see during a game. Im no football guru by any means but by watching I think Tannehill is a "pretty good" QB who is very tough and "better" than usual when he gets moving in a game. He has been in some crappy situations due to droped passes, lack of a run game as well as stalling on some 3rd (and 4th) and short plays. Not having time to throw has been devistating and I think he makes mistakes because he trusts everyone to do their job even if they are a backup. Ive seen some dropped passes (Stills vs Seattlle is first to come to mind) and penalties that really bogged down the offense. Missed and blocked FG's also contribute to the pain (Seattle again). The team should have won the first two games (shoulda, coulda, woulda) but thats football. Think of our conversation if we were 4-2 with wins over Seattle, Pats and Steelers!! Aghhhh! We all knew this season could be difficult though so I'm not judging either way (yet).

    The stats on thier own are pretty impressive for our QB though. Nice job!
     
  21. miamiron

    miamiron There's always next year

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    30th in offensive time of possession

    23rd in yards after the catch allowed

    30th in "3 and out drives" with 21
    Washington is #1 with only 6

    32nd in the least amount of offensive plays

    31st in1st down Differential
    our offense has produced 97 first downs
    and allowed 128 first downs for a terrible -31differential
    Arizona leads the NFL with a +33 differential

    32nd in
    Run Efficiency Ratio, This ratio gives you the number of rushing yards a team generates for each rushing yard they give up.


    32nd in ten play or more drives
     
  22. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Jarvis Landry has the most receptions (46), through seven weeks in Miami history. He is 10 ahead of his pace from last season, when he set the single season team record.

    Landry's 572 receiving yards are the 6th most in Miami history through seven weeks. The players ahead of him on that list are Duper (twice), Clayton, Warfield and Fryar. So, no flukes this far into the season.

    Two weeks ago, Ajayi had the distinction of having the fewest rushing yards for a Miami leader through five weeks in team history, with 117. Today, he has the 9th most rushing yards through seven weeks in team history.

    Tannehill has been sacked fewer times this season through seven games (18), than he was in 2013 (32) or 2015 (21). He was sacked 17 times through seven in 2014.

    Tannehill has thrown the ball 50 fewer times this season than he had in 2015 at this point, for exactly 200 fewer yards.

    His completion percentage is 65.26 this season, compared to 62.74 at this point last year. Its the first time that he's had a comp % higher than 63 through seven games in his career.

    Ryan's 7 TD passes are the second lowest through seven games of his career, better only than the 4 he had in his rookie year at this point. Last year, he had 13 through seven games. However, his 7 interceptions are only one higher than his career best of 6, which he had in 2012 and 2014.

    Tannehill's passer rating of 87.5 is his best through seven games, slightly higher than the 87.1 that he had last season. His 8.11 YPA is also easily his career best at this point. Last year's number of 7.33 was previously his best.

    Ndamukong Suh's 3.5 sacks are the fewest for a Miami team leader through seven weeks since 2004, when Jason Taylor had 3.0.

    Assisted tackles are a fairly new, and impercise stat, but the 27 that Kiko Alonso has this season are the most that a Miami player has ever been credited with through seven weeks, as are his 61 total tackles.

    Adam Gase is the first Dolphins head coach to have a winning record in his first four home games (3-1) with the team since Wanny went 4-0 in 2000. Philbin, Sparano and Saban were all 2-2 in their first four, and Cameron was of course 0-4. Jimmy also went 2-2, while Shula went 3-1.
     
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  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Ajayi is the NFL's 7th leading rusher with 535 yards.

    He has 58 fewer carries than the man in front of him on the list, L. Blount, but just 31 fewer yards.

    Ajayi has more rushing yards than 13 players who have more carries than he does.

    His 5 rushing TDs are tied for sixth.

    His 6.3 YPC leads all running backs, regardless of the number of carries.

    Jarvis Landry is tied for third in the league with 46 receptions.

    He is ninth with 572 receiving yards.

    Through seven games for each player, Landy's statline is almost identical in many ways to Antonio Brown of Pittsburgh:

    Landry - 46, 572, 12.4 YPC, 1 TD
    Brown - 48, 592, 12.1 YPC, 5 TD

    Kenny Stills 19.8 YPC is fourth best in the league among players with at least 300 receiving yards.
     
  24. btfu149

    btfu149 Well-Known Member

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    Pretty shocking that Landry is averaging more YPC than Antonio Brown. Glad to see that is YPC has gone up every year.
     
  25. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    His average was actually up over 13 for a while, too. And who'd have guessed that almost halfway through the season, Landry would have a YPC about 1.5 more than DeAndre Hopkins?
     
  26. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I just want to say i'm really enjoying these stat posts you've been making lately. Thank you for them.
     
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  27. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    I enjoy making them. Its the kind of information I like to read, and I figured that a few other people would find it interesting as well.

    I was really, really disappointed that the team (and seemingly all the NFL teams) didn't create online media guides this season. There are always bits in those that I just can't gather and compile myself. There are also limits on how ProFootballReference.com works as well. Some stats start at 1991, others 1999. But I still enjoy it, and like to find out what I can.

    Making these lists last night was also therapudic for me, as I watched my Cubs lose 6-0 in game 1 of the World Series.
     
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  28. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    The last year and a half (24 games), the Dolphins have kicked off to start the game 13 times, and received the kick 11.

    On those kickoffs, they allowed the opposition to score a TD three touchdowns, and three field goals. Miami did not force a tunover on any of those drives, though the Jets turned it over on downs once.

    On the returns, they scored one TD (vs Tenn in 2015), two FGs, punted six times, threw one interception, and fumbled the ball away once.

    Pending the result of today's game vs the Jets, the team is 3-9 in games where they kick off in the first half, and 6-5 in games where they return the opening kickoff.
     
  29. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Jay Ajayi after Eight Games

    Jay Ajayi's 646 yards make him the fifth leading rusher in the NFL.

    Ajayi's 92.3 yards per game played are second best in the league, behind Elliot's 111.4.

    Seven of the other eight players that have 600+ rushing yards also have at least 150 carries. Ajayi has just 109.

    Ajayi's 5.9 YPC is the best of any RB with at least 50 carries. The next best is from LeSean McCoy, who's 5.3 YPC is more than a half yard less than Ajayi.

    Ajayi's 6 rushing TDs are tied for 8th most in the NFL.

    Going by team games played, Ajayi is on pace to rush for 1292 yards. That would be the third most in team history, behind Ricky Willams' 2002 & 2003 seasons. Per individual games played, he's on pace for 1385 yards. (15 games).

    Ajayi would need to rush for 44.25 Yards per game to reach 1000 yards. He would need to average 69.25 to get to 1200.

    His 646 rushing yards are the 7th most in Dolphins history after 8 games. Among Dolphins players with at least 60 carries through eight games, only Mercury Morris has ever had a high rushing average than Ajayi's 5.9.

    His 109 carries are only the 31st most by a Miami player after eight games.

    His 6 rushing TDs are tied for the sixth most by a Dolphin after eight games. Don Nottingham had nine in 1975.

    His current streak of four consecutive games with a rushing TD is tied with many players for the second longest streak in Miami history. Karim Abdul-Jabbar had five straight games in 1997, and is the most recent Dolphin to achieve that. No Dolphin has ever had a rushing TD in six straight. Mark Clayton and Paul Warfield hold the total TD record, which is six straight games.

    Ajayi averages 6.8 YPC on first down, and 6.1 YPC on second down.

    He averages 7.2 YPC on 1st & 10, and 11.0 YPC on 2nd & 7-9 to go.

    He averages 7.57 YPC on all rushes outside of the opponent's Red Zone.

    By Quarter:

    1st: 19 - 108 - 5.7 avg - 0 TD
    2nd: 22- 125 - 5.7 avg - 1 TD
    3rd: 25 - 125 - 5.0 avg - 2 TD
    4th: 16 - 165 - 10.3 avg - 1 TD
    OT: 2 -12 - 6.0 avg - 1 TD
     
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  30. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Jarvis Landry through Eight Games

    His 49 catches are tied for 8th most in the NFL. Four of the players ahead of him have played in nine games.

    The 49 catches are three behind his pace from last season, and also 3rd most in Dolphin history after eight games.

    Landry's 605 rec yards are 12th most in the league, and are the most he's had after eight games. They are the 10th most in Miami history after eight.

    He is on pace to have 1210 yards receiving on the season, which would pass his 2015 mark to become the 6th most in Miami history. No Dolphin player has ever had 1100+ receiving yards in consecutive seasons.

    This is the 4th time a Miami player has had over 600 receiving after eight games since 1999. Hartline (662 in 2012) and Marshall (644 in 2011 & 618 in 2010) are the others.

    Landry's 12.35 YPC is much better than the 10.25 he averaged through eight games last season.

    Landry now has 243 receptions on his career, which is good for the 3rd most ever though a player's first three seasons. He is now 17 catches shy of tying AJ Green for the record in that category.
     

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