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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Fame, Oct 1, 2018.

  1. mbsinmisc

    mbsinmisc Season Ticket Holder

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    Sorry my Phin fan brother, I bought that ticket earlier this afternoon. The good news is I will buy a suite at Hard Rock and you have a standing invitation.
     
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  2. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Don't waste your breath, the eternal optimists won't listen. They are however starting to realize that once again, they were wrong about this season. After we lose next week, they will get a little more salty. Its obvious that they are getting tired of being wrong every year about this team
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If you do, can I borrow $20? And just so you know, I'm never going to pay you back. =)
     
  4. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    $20?

    After tonight I will be booking out 30 tickets at the 50yd line for my TP brothers, best way to ensure your selection? Pics of your sister nude will do (must be between the age of 21 and 55)

    Thanks in advance
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The problem with Tannehill's game Sunday is that it was so subpar that it gave the team little chance of winning, in and of itself. His passer rating was 49. Teams with passer ratings between 46 and 52 (inclusive) have won 58 of 309 games in which there was a won or loss (excluding ties) since 2004. That means he gave the team about a 19% chance of winning Sunday.

    So it's not that people should expect an exceptionally good game under those conditions. But even a below average game (a passer rating of let's say 75 or so) would've given the team a much better chance of winning.

    I think conceivably one could expect such a below average game (passer rating of 75 or so) given the situation and the absence of the other components of the team you mentioned, but such an exceptionally poor game (passer rating of 49) has to be blamed on not only on the situation and those components of the team, but also Tannehill himself.
     
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  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I've tried to remain as neutral as possible on the Tannehill conversation over the years. Honestly, it's not what he did last week that hurt us as much as what he didn't do. I know he missed a few shots at the end zone that could have changed the game quickly, and I'll rarely knock a QB for taking those chances (even if they're picked off at times). But the five yard passes on 3rd and 9, the sitting in the pocket when nobody is open...stuff like that drives me bonkers. It's like he has little situational awareness and the gusto to take over the offense RIGHT NOW. It's like he's always content to "get em next time". I just don't see the fire on the most important downs.

    My big question- is it because it's been coached into him so hard to stick exactly to the script that he doesn't take any chances? Does he just struggle processing a "plan B" on the fly? Are the huge moments just too big for him? I don't know the answer to any of those questions and I'm wondering if we ever will.

    I'm still a Ryan Tannehill fan and I still think he's a top-tier quarterback...but that's definitely not what we saw this past Sunday. And when we get right down to it, I think you have to win the biggest games to fall into that elite category. At this point I don't know if he will ever get there on a consistent basis. He has all the talent in the world but that's not enough by itself to win championships.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Some things change with more experience, with different coaches and with different surrounding casts. And when they change because of that you have evidence it was more the environment than the person. But after 5+ seasons there are simply some things you don't see from Tannehill and that includes natural improv ability. It also includes the ability to put the team on his shoulders and win when the rest of the team isn't playing well. That's Tannehill dude.. not the environment.

    The only question left is whether the environment he's in, which should be ideal with a coach that believes in him and with a surrounding cast that's decent, is sufficient to make us a playoff team. 12 more games max and we'll know.
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    btw.. here's one way to summarize our woes since 2016. I'm plotting point differential on the x-axis and probability of seeing that point differential or lower on the y-axis, for all games in the NFL since 1970 vs. all Dolphins games since Gase was coach.

    [​IMG]

    Anything to the right of that purple line (NFL average) means you're above average. For example, you see the Dolphins curve at around +15 point differential higher than the NFL curve. That means a higher percentage of games were +15 or worse point differential for the Dolphins, meaning we're worse than average.

    Basically goes to show we have some serious issues in terms of how offense and defense work together to win games. However, we ARE slightly better than average for very close games as you can see with that aqua curve being slightly to the right of purple at around zero.
     
  9. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    We need to roll RT out a hell of a lot more barring an amazing turn around from this garbage line.
     
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  10. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Interesting. What would that graph look like if it had just the Dolphin games Tannehill played in? That’s what we all are banking on, isn’t it? I’d be curious to see if the Gase/ Tannehill led team shifts the Dolphin curve to the right of average and if the team as a whole plays better with Tannehill at the helm.
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2018
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Good point. I should've added that initially. Tannehill shifts the Gase curve to the right. With Tannehill we're far more above average in close games, more or less average when we lose big (except when we get totally blown out), but way below average in terms of how often we blow teams out, which jibes with what we see. But this does show the effect of having a starting QB over a backup (shift to the right) AND it shows the effect of the coach (general pattern in upper part is still the same).

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Fame

    Fame Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I'm guessing Smokin' Jay Cutler didn't help us out too much there.
     
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  13. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    If you base QB talent on one game you're never going to actually know who the better QB is. Besides, Trubisky had a 154 passer rating and RT had a 155 this season. So claiming that RT "never had a game like Trubisky" is provably false. Could Trubisky end up having a better career than RT? Sure. Has he of yet....no. To be fair he's only started 16 games to RT's 81 so it's actually absurd to compare either one for career stats.
     
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  14. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    The entire league is 106-19 vs the Pats at Gillette since 2001. lol...The entire league, sans maybe the Broncos, must have an inferiority complex.


    This post is worthless...
     
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  15. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I'm surprised that you haven't been around before the Dolphins lost a game.

    /sarcasm

    Trolls will trolls...
     
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  16. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Unless you're the Pats. Then you have nearly a 30% chance of winning when your QB has a passer rating between 40-60. :)
     
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  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    From the way you write it Sounds like your going to fit right in here:)
     
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  18. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I know it doesn’t matter because RT is actually pretty good, but I am all about the energy. RT is a nice guy, and earlier this year when he ran for those first downs it was huge. However, for my taste, we don’t see that kind of urgency enough. I can see why people like Trubuski. He probably doesn’t want to win more than Ryan, he just looks like he does with the energy he has.
     
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  19. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    This post I read on another site sums up what I think you're saying:

    "I'm reminded of an old adage...something along the lines of, "when you believe you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail". The guys who go out and put up those kinds of numbers see nails everywhere.

    Ryan Tannehill isn't a hammer. Never was. He doesn't believe he's a great quarterback, and that's the most significant factor in why he's so average."
     
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  20. Fame

    Fame Well-Known Member

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    So now we're saying we know what Ryan Tannehill thinks and believes? Holy ****. Can this fan base get over itself for five minutes?

    Dude suffered two devestating injuries, worked his tail off during rehab to get back on the field, and spent the same (reportedly more) time at the facility each day to be a leader and mentor to the team all while studying to be better for when he did come back.

    Sounds a lot to me like a guy who thinks of himself as a great quarterback. Not to mention that in his last 12 games, he basically HAS been a great quarterback.
     
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  21. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Hmm....I've been around all season, just like the part several seasons since I joined this forum. So telling the truth makes someone a troll? What does ALWAYS saying that "the dolphins will be better this year" or "THIS is the year" or no matter how ****ty the dolphins look, always thinking that it was some aberration and that we're actually a good team, make someone? The one i really love is "Gase must be calling simple plays and he'll open up the playbook soon". As much as you think I'm a troll for being negative towards a team that ALWAYS disappoints its fans, you eternal optimists that have glitter and rainbows shooting out of your asses, are so aggravating. Its ok to say your team sucks, if they suck. I hope one day I can say the Dolphins are super bowl champions but until then, I'm gonna call a spade a spade
     
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  22. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

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    uh...yeah. No.
     
  23. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    Haha, Thill never threw 5 TDS in one game, Trubitsky already has in his short career
     
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  24. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    So on one hand you tell me nobody knows his mindset - then on the other hand you tell me what his mindset is. Got it.
     
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  25. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Thank you for doing that! This is a really big help to me. I have always felt that with the injury to RT the Gase/Tannehill offense really couldn't get out of 2nd gear. For some reason I had in my head that bigger and better things were coming. This helps me realize that my thinking was flawed and that my expectations were a little high and unreasonable. Generally speaking, I think we might see a slight improvement as everyone gets more comfortable, but what we see now is probably what we are going to get, which is a lot of close games where we eek out a victory.
     
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  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right now the team is surrendering the second-best opposing passer rating in the league, 72.2. If that continues, and Tannehill has his customary passer rating in the low- to mid-90s, the team could do very well this season. If that opposing passer rating rises to the league average of about 89, the team stands little chance of being much better than about 8-8.

    The difficulty last season was not only that Tannehill's replacement played poorly, but also that the team surrendered the fifth-worst opposing passer rating in the league, 94.8.
     
  27. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    It will be interesting to see if we have the ability to overcome the injury bug we are currently suffering from. IMO, that is what usually does a team in.
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This graph shows the relation between passer rating differential and win% over an entire season. Technically, these aren't raw differentials but differentials between adjusted passer ratings (to adjust a passer rating P in year X to a reference year Y, calculate P/(league average rating in year X)*(league average rating in year Y)). Each data point is also the passer rating at the end of a season for the entire team, so this isn't game-by-game and it includes the backup QB, but that's what we want because we're interested in how the team performs.

    [​IMG]

    You can play around with hypotheticals using that equation. If as you suggested Tannehill has say a 95 rating and we keep our 72.2 passer rating allowed, that's a differential of about 23, and if you plug 23 into that equation you get 0.1551*23 + 8 = 11.5 expected wins! And it's even more if you use his current 106.1.

    Is that realistic? Well.. yes IF that's indicative of how we perform over a full 16 game season. But as I've shown in other posts you really need to wait for a minimum of 150+ passing attempts before sample size for passer rating gets to be large enough that you can reliably start to distinguish among QB's, so the current differential is really meaningless from a statistical point of view. Do this after game 7 and you'll get a better idea.. of course, remember these stats are only really valid after a full season.

    But where we stand right now on this particular stat is pretty good for sure.
     
  29. jerry graham

    jerry graham New Member

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    We had two decent guys in the middle they are gone now. Larson is bad and well swanson isn't a peach either. You have to draft a guard and a center im sorry. No qb is good enough to overcome a crappy oline in the middle.
     
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  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Well, we were BY FAR the best up until that NE game, and there's three things to think about regarding Gillette. #1, Jones didn't play the past two weeks. #2, Howard was held/pushed on two NE TD's...I think we clearly get the flags in any other stadium in America. #3, we were flagged more in the NE game than our first three games combined...mostly on defense. Each of NE's scoring drives in the first half had a drive-extending penalty at some point.

    My point is that you clean up the penalties and get Jones back on the field, and you have a different defense entirely.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2018
  31. jerry graham

    jerry graham New Member

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    Id like to see better pass rush that helps everything.
     
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  32. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    So? Cherry picking stats will also never lead a person to the correct grade of a player.
     
  33. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

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    lol...or just taking their last game.

    Calm down, DM. we'll know soon enough if RT is the answer.
     
  34. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    As we will with Trubisky.

    In all honesty, I think I've come to my conclusion about RT. He can be a 100 passer rating QB when everything is working around him. Blocking, run game, defense...etc etc. And frankly unless something clicks for him big time I hope we draft a QB 1st round next season.

    I'm afraid that RT's problems, at this point, are mental. He's not reading the defenses fast enough. A smarter QB would be able to get the ball out and to the right WR/back/TE faster and more accurately when pressured. Take this last game for example...yes, he was getting pressured, and the run blocking was crap, but a lot of QB's are able to play much better under those circumstances. RT has all the skill in the world...great arm, accurate arm, good mobility...but if his mind isn't able to process the data fast enough his skills won't matter. What they do, instead, is keep that carrot out in front making us all believe that we can get it. Maybe he will "get it", but right now I'm doubting him more and more.
     
  35. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Saying that...he'll probably come out and put up another 150 passer rating this Sunday. Which I'd be fine with.
     
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  36. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately, I agree with you here. He's digressed since '16. While rust was to be expected from him coming off the extensive time off due to injury, I also expected to get up to par much faster than what he and the offense is currently showing. It's only a 1/4 into the season but the offensive issues are prevalent and glaring.
     
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  37. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Ryan Fitzpatrick had a 5 TD game this year I think we should trade Tannehill for him. Maybe we can sign Matt Flynn off the scrap heap he once threw 6 TD's in a game! OMG!
     
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  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Vision and anticipation..not able to read the entire field quickly enough, slow to read the rush and react.

    These two traits the very good to great ones have..
     
  39. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

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    I agree. He might be able to get it together for a game or two, but hes not the long term answer. I like Ryan Finley of NCST. And then DEs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Then Olinemen.
     
  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I just can't fathom punting oline to the bottom of the list of needs again.
     
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