IMO we need to factor in a team's strength of schedule when comparing or judging QBs.
I'm calling bulldoodie if anyone believes that Henne's stats & performance wouldn't have looked significantly better while facing the 22nd ranked Strength of Schedule (Matt Ryan), 25th (Josh Freeman), or 32nd (Sam Bradford) rather than Chad's 3rd toughest (and 2nd toughest in 2009), especially if he had a healthy offense, competent OC, and no injured knee. Heck, two of the QBs that fans speak of acquiring, Hasselbeck & Orton, faced the 30th & 21st ranked schedules according to Football Outsiders.
Josh Freeman
2010 vs 25th SoS: 95.9 QBR, 61.4% 7.3 avg, 25 TDs, 6 INTs.
2009 vs 1st SoS: 59.8 QBR, 54.0%, 6.4 avg, 10 TDs, 18 INTs.
*I watched some of Freeman's 2009 games and he did NOT look like his stats suggested when playing quality teams.
Matt Ryan
2010 vs 22nd SoS: 91.0 QBR, 62.5%, 6.5 avg, 28 TDs, 9 INTs.
2008 vs 20th SoS: 87.7 QBR, 61.1%, 7.9 avg, 16 TDs, 11 INTs.
2009 vs 6th SoS: 80.9 QBR, 58.3%, 6.5 avg, 22 TDs, 14 INTs.
Chad Pennington
2008 vs 29th SoS: 97.4 QBR, 67.4%, 7.7 avg, 19 TDs, 7 INTs.
2009 vs 2nd SoS: 76.0 QBR, 68.9%, 5.6 avg, 1 TD, 2 INTs.
Peyton Manning
2001 vs 4th SoS: 84.1 QBR, 62.7%, 7.6 avg, 26 TDs, 23 INTs. (Manning's worst non-rookie season; ALSO only season vs a top 5 SoS)
Ben Roethlisberger (Ben's worst season came against his only top 5 SoS. Ben's best 2 seasons came vs his easiest 2 SoS's)
2009 vs 26th SoS: 100.5 QBR, 66.6%, 8.6 avg, 26 TDs, 12 INTs.
2007 vs 22nd SoS: 104.1 QBR, 65.3%, 7.8 avg, 32 TDs, 11 INTs.
2008 vs 4th SoS: 80.1 QBR, 59.9%, 7.0 avg, 17 TDs, 15 INTs.
Matt Cassel
2010 vs 28th SoS: 93.0 QBR, 58.2%, 6.9 avg, 27 TDs, 7 INTs.
2008 vs 28th SoS: 89.4 QBR, 63.4%, 7.2 avg, 21 TDs, 11 INTs.
2009 vs 10th SoS: 69.9 QBR, 55.0%, 5.9 avg, 16 TDs, 16 INTs.
Drew Brees (his 1st two season's starting were vs top 7 SoS's)
2002 vs 5th SoS: 76.9 QBR, 60.8%, 6.2 avg, 17 TDs, 16 INTs.
2003 vs 7th SoS: 67.5 QBR, 57.6%, 5.9 avg, 11 TDs, 15 INTs.
Philip Rivers (his worst season came during the only time he did NOT face a 21st or easier SoS)
2007: 82.4 QBR, 60.2%, 6.9 avg, 21 TDs, 15 INTs.
Chad Henne (possibly THE TOUGHEST SoS of any QB in his first 2 years starting)
2010 vs #3 SoS: 75.4 QBR, 61.4%, 6.7 avg, 15 TDs, 18 INTs.
2009 vs #2 SoS: 75.2 QBR, 60.8%, 6.4 avg, 12 TDs, 14 INTs.
Sam Bradford (1st year starting)
2010 vs 32nd SoS: 76.5 QBR, 60%, 6.0 avg, 18 TDs, 15 INTs.
Is there much difference between Henne's first year starting compared to Bradford's besides their Strength of Schedule being polar opposites and Sam not being taken out for WC plays? What kind of 2nd year jump would you expect Bradford to make if he faces the 3rd toughest SoS rather than the 32nd he was used to now that teams have more film on him? It's no surprise to me that Sanchez had a disappointing 2nd season after facing the 5th toughest SoS.
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Exactly TP, this yr, we are primed to do much better then in 09 and 10, the schedule is not as strong as it was those yrs, the Defense is young and up and coming and ST's are rarely poor in back to back seasons, that can happen but it is quite rare as most coaches will simply throw a couple of resources at the unit so they do not look like idiots the following season.
For example the ST was 27th in 08, 9th, in 09, 29th in 10, this should be a bounce back yr for that unit.
Those factors, SOS, D having 3rd yr starters on it, and ST improving is however one of the reasons why I advocate a Vet Qb be brought in to hopefully unseat Chad Henne, this is the yr to make hay and it HAS to be made and Henne has to many ? marks for my tastes.
The only caution I'd bring up is Dallas and SD are also primed for bounce back yrs, they may have drafted Top 15 or whatever, but there is still loads of talent on both teams that skews the SOS imho.ToddsPhins and xphinfanx like this. -
The true SOS won't be known until the season is finished in my opinion. The SOS's that I used came after the season was played.
I think we can have a solid year, so I definitely want someone in here capable of challenging Henne or at least giving us a chance to make a playoff run if Henne is injured.HeyBaldy and Ohio Fanatic like this. -
Division Points allowed
AFC North #1 1229 PA
NFC North #2 1243 PA
NFC South #3 1321 PA
AFC East #4 1375 PA
AFC West #5 1490 PA
NFC West #6 1515 PA
NFC East #7 1537 PA
AFC South #8 1573 PA
With those stats Phins played
4 Games against the #1 D (Pitt,Rav,Brown,Cinci)
4 games against the #2 D (Bears,Viks,GB,Lions)
6 games in division #4 D
1 game against #6 D (oak)
1 game against #8 D (Tenn)
That alone shows how brutal the schedule last season really was now that its over.
If it wasn't for Buffalo giving up 455 points our div would have been ranked much higher.Ohio Fanatic, djphinfan, padre31 and 1 other person like this. -
That is a mystery to me.ToddsPhins, Disnardo and xphinfanx like this. -
If one wants some real cause for optimism, the Raiders and KC had epic turnaround seasons, which as we learned from 2009 means a return to the mean the following yr, as in 3 to 4 more losses at least, both are on the schedule. -
I disagree. I think SOS isn't an accurate showing of a QB's difficulty at all. A more accurate assessment would be the passing defenses he played against. That's like putting rushing stats up for MJD. They're heavily skewed using your method because the Colts are always one of the winningest teams, but the run defense is pathetic.
I'm sure there are better examples involving good teams with poor or middle of the road passing defenses, but the Colts and their run defense is the first thing that came to mind.miamiron likes this. -
Does it have to do with the same reason we threw fades to Hartline instead of Marshall?HeyBaldy likes this. -
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Are you forgetting that opposing offenses do things like score points?
It's not only about the caliber of defense you play; it's also about the team in general.
If a QB is playing a team whose offense can score points, that can impact a QB's play as much a good defense.
By your theory, a QB should be successful against Indy & Manning if the Colt's defense is mediocre; I don't see it that way. Manning can put a lot of pressure on an opposing offense. Any strong overall team can put extra pressure on an QB to succeed. Great teams can put opposing QBs in a hole.HeyBaldy likes this. -
Running back stats and QB stats aren't entirely related....... and using a full 16 game strength of schedule is completely different than looking at just one isolated game like you're referring to.
Would you like to be the person responsible for breaking down an entire season's worth of film, snap by snap, to figure out each team's weighted defensive strength of schedule in order to see its affect on QB performance? (because I'm not sure that stat even exists). It's much more complicated than saying "Team X ranked 6th in pts/game allowed so they're the 6th best defense.
Side note: Do you know how many times Indy ranked much higher defensively than their performance would indicate? How about the Saints' defense behind their high powered offense? Hence your basis for analysis would be skewed, which is why IMO it's more accurate to use strength of schedule than simple, non-weighted defensive stats.HeyBaldy likes this. -
I don't disagree that an opposing offense can't put some added pressure on a QB, an offense, or an offensive coordinator's game plan. But, if you're using a criteria to assess Chad Henne's play against top notch competition, I think it's a much fairer argument to take the statistics of teams and the quality of their passing defense or total defense in comparison to their record. I don't think it's indicative of the difficult he faced last year at all. That is my opinion.
BTW, he faced some difficult competition relative to the defenses, particularly passing defenses last year. -
So again, poor/mediocre analogy aside, a much fairer assessment would be to analyze the defenses in which Henne played against. That is the direct contributor to poor stats, not the teams he played against, IMO. That's more of a direct correlation to why we as a team finished at 7-9. -
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I'm really thinking we're going to see a good year out of Henne.
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What is Henne's effect on the strength of schedule???
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Say what you will about scoring and wins, because I'm understanding that because the Patriots scored a ton and got ahead they played basic pass coverages at times. However, that doesn't take away the fact. If they're doing that, it makes them an easy pass defense to throw on. -
To be fair, great teams will typically have good to great defenses, just as weak teams will typically have poor to average defenses. Therefore, IMO using "strength of schedule" as a parameter is more encompassing than using "defense" alone b/c good-great teams should have either a quality defense OR outstanding offense (and/or special teams) capable of putting pressure on an opposing QB...... or have both..... or all 3.
The Strength of schedule stat is also weighted and created from extensive analysis, making it more precise & reliable than simply looking at the defensive rankings based on yards or points allowed.
Don't forget, fans aren't just measuring Henne's stats vs other young QBs; they're also looking at wins and losses. We both know it's easier to be successful and post a winning season against an easier strength of schedule.HeyBaldy likes this. -
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All I suggested is that a more relevant stat would be to look at the defenses he played against. That is the most telling and direct thing judging Chad Henne's degree of difficulty IMO.
What is this extensive analysis done to judge SOS? It's a formula used by computing an entire team's W/L record.
It's difficult for me to say Chad Henne had a harder time passing against the New England Patriots than he did the Buffalo Bills because the Patriots were a better team. In fact, the opposite is true as he struggled mightily against Buffalo and rightfully so, they were a flat out better passing defense shown by the statistics.
I agree with the basis of your argument. Chad Henne had a difficult schedule. It would be difficult for any QB to show off great statistics against the gauntlet of pass defenses he ran up against. I just don't agree with the relevancy of SOS. Is it relevant? Yes. Is there more correlation than pass defense statistics? I don't agree there. -
I think there will be instances that contradict the numbers (like your Buffalo example); however, in the grand scheme of things, IMO a 16 game season is enough of a sample size to allow SOS to carry some weight.HeyBaldy likes this. -
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It would take me a year to compare Henne to the QBs I listed in the OP b/c defensive stats of a similarly complex nature don't exist that I'm aware of. I'd essentially have to create every team's "weighted opposing defense's strength of schedule" over the past 12 years before I could even compare a QBs.HeyBaldy likes this. -
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Would be nice if ST could also generate field position out past the 30 as well. -
As for SOS and Henne, keep in mind 4 games vs the Pats and Jest, 25% of the schedule, that leads to tougher sledding in itself.
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I'd love to see Henne be lights out, but more importantly, I don't want anymore implosions in December. I want him to get better as the season wears on, as the game wears on. I want him to experience the playoffs. All things this team and he are very capable of.
I mean for all the flack I receive as being regarded as "anti-Henne", my expectations aren't crazy high. I just want a leader who finds ways to lead his team to wins.ToddsPhins likes this.