only one pinball offense left...the patriots. defenses have caught up to the rule changes. this is the year where defense once again regained its throne atop whats important to win a sb
i expand on it. the 49ers and ravens have two of the best defenses in the league and the Giants are playing off the hook on defense the last month. the years of pinball offenses and mediocre defenses winning SBs are over with. long reign the defense again!
Lots of scoring this weekend. Ravens were the lowest at 20 and IMO the least likely to advance. The other three winners all scored 30 or more.
Come on, Eli is not a top tier QB like Rodgers, Brees, Brady, or his brother Peyton when he was still healthy. He's good but not at that level.
Only if you buy the New England hype machine. You obviously think Flacco is a complete bum but he'll make plays against that garbage New England defense.
My takeaway from the playoffs is not that "defense beats offense" or the other way around, or "you need a Franchise Qb!" It's that the best TEAMS are advancing, the teams that can create big plays, are winning. Any weakness the other team has is being exposed, and ST are playing a larger role then they usually do, for example if the Texans kicker hits that FG, different gm in the 4th Qtr, I do think the Elite Qb's are not enough to advance, they need help from the rest of the team. NOLA pretty much lost b/c their returner muffed kicks, ditto the Texans, and that is not to say ST were the key to the wins, more that the teams have been so closely matched that mistakes even in that area have been enough to swing some of the games, which as much as I love ST's, is relatively rare, typically 1 gm per playoff cycle is won or lost on ST, this time around seems like 3 gms were won or lost when that unit failed under pressure.
I think Flacco is a guy who hasn't made the jump to elite. I actually thought he had a better chance than Ryan to make that jump (although Ryan was less of a bust risk), but it's not guaranteed. If he never makes that jump then Baltimore probably won't either. It's just very difficult to win a SB without an elite QB. It can happen but you need an almost flukey level of luck.
Really? 5000 yards and a record 15 4th quarter TDs in a season not good enough? Leading the 8th ranked scoring offense (24.6 PPG) despite the worst rushing attack in the league (in YPG and YPA) not good enough? Playoff resume? More 4th quarter comebacks for his career then Tom Brady? Statistically Eli is there now and his resume is growing by the week.
If Flacco even makes the jump to consistently good Baltimore would be holding the trophy this year imo. But with Flacco you never know which Flacco you get. Will he be the Flacco that lit up Pitt in week one and Cincinatti in their first meeting? Or will he be the Flacco that lead the 19th ranked passing attack and who lead Baltimore to an embarrassing 12-7 loss on national tv vs Jacksonville? Will he be the Flacco who throws a nice deep ball or will he be the Flacco who needs a strong running game to do anything offensively? His footwork gets sloppy when he gets pressured and he throws a very inaccurate ball when that happens. You never know. Raven fans know it. Hes one of the biggest wild cards on a week to week basis.
My take from the playoffs is that key positions matter and that you need to be able to pass and stop the pass. The most important key position is obviously QB. If you're getting elite play there (defined as making plays when things break down) then you need less from the rest of your team. If you're not then you better hope the other team doesn't have an elite QB or that the rest of your team is getting turnovers to make up for your QB's deficiency. The other key positions are receivers at TE, WR or RB and pass rushers and ball hawking S. It also helps to have a good enough OL to stop those pass rushers (or an elite QB that can make plays even when pressured).
Baltimore is a very good team, but Flacco only makes plays when things go right. He throws some beautiful timing passes. But if you pressure him, he usually can't deliver. QBs like that get you to the playoffs but generally can't make it through the gauntlet of better teams you face in the playoffs and SB. Those better teams tend to cause things to go wrong more often. That's what Eli Manning is great at and why I find it humorous that anybody is going to pretend he's not elite. Manning didn't really develop the timing offense side until this year. That side is what produces the stats that convinced so many he's now elite. But he's always been at least decent at producing when things break down. Maybe not quite elite but but better than most. That's the part that gets you wins in the playoffs. Until Flacco develops that (and he may never develop it), his team will be at a disadvantage against the teams with elite QBs and be no more than outside threat to win a SB.
Sts has always had the potential to win or lose you games. It's just that that potential is much smaller than the offense or the defenses's potential. So no matter how many STs plays you want to point to and claim they won the game, I can point to about three times as many examples on offense or defense and say they won the game.
The only thing I would disagree with you on was that Eli was elite dating back to his finish in 2009. Last year he threw 26 INTs but an NFL record 18 were off deflections by his own WR's. The Giants had no business being as good as they were last year if you watched them play. As for Flacco we are in complete agreement.
Then wouldn't it make sense to then make sure your ST does not cost you the game, but can win you the game?
Sure and you can do that by having a good STs coach and by not churning the roster too much. You don't need to take away roster spots from the phases of the game that have a greater potential to cost you the game.
Maybe, I say that because when a player receives chances, there always exists the possiibility that they can get over their proefessional hurdle, most tend to forget that Eli the elite Qb is a relatively new thing, you point to 09, but he'd been in the league for what 5 yrs? 6? at that point? Sometimes it happens slowly for some Qb's, maybe Flacco comes of age vs the patriots
Even good ST coaches have their own players on their units, ones that may not have much value elsewhere. And the point of having a good ST unit with those roster slots is precisely because you do not know when they will make the difference in an outcome, which is the point of insurance btw.
Youre right and im not writing Flacco off. Its just that by the time it does happen, the window for that great D may have closed and along with it, their championship aspirations.
Eli is elite. Doesn't matter if his team has a 5 game losing streak. Marino's had one as well. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/1988.htm
Flacco doesn't have to be elite to beat the Patriots. Just good. Just as he didn't need to be elite to beat them in 2009 and Mark Sanchez and the Jets didn't need to be elite to beat them last season.
There is balance in everything. I just feel that you over emphasize a part of the game that is clearly far less important. Then you de-emphasize the most important position in the game. You seem to relish focusing on some aspects that you consider thinking "outside the box", but too often that just means you ignore what should be obvious priorities to focus on the far less impactful parts and players.
I agree with that one hundred percent. I'm merely saying it is a good possibility that he will be better given New England's poor defense. Even with a good defensive performance [relatively speaking] New England will probably still score in the 28 or so range. Ray Rice is a big time player that can score from anywhere on the field. I don't think New England is capable of doing to him what Houston did yesterday.
Hmm, that seems a bit of a false premise though Rafi, why is it a given that a player can be good in one or the other? ST or Offense or Defense? And, ST does swing games every yr, during the season and during the playoffs, justifying the roster slots even for players who are avg or below on O or D, this yr's ST All Pro Matthew Slater was a decent Wr for the Patriots.
Where did I say anything that made you think a player can't be good on offense or defense and STs? All I'm saying is that offense and defense are more impactful than STs so a reasonable priority is to focus on those to phases first. Unless they are one of the few great ones like a Hester that has an out-sized impact then I want players who first and foremost are good at offense or defense and secondarily good at STs. Except for that Hester-type exception I'm not bringing in guys who are good at STs if they're not good at their primary jobs. I'm not setting aside roster spots for guys who are just STs players. B/c while STs win games every year, offense and defense win games every week.
I would birng such palyers in as they make a disparate impact on games, if you can have a outstanding STer, who is avg in packages, or a package guy who stinks at ST, go with the STer as his contribution on ST will outweigh the guy who is only good on some substitutional packages. Do notice that Ravens Abendayo has been to multiple pro bowls as a STer, his team is still playing, Slater went to his frist this yr, and his pats team is still playing, in fact Dave Toub mentioned that the loss of Abendayo is the singlest largest reason why Devin Hester has scored fewer Td's on returns since he left. And Abendayo is a medicore at best Linebacker in sub packages.
They don't though. That's where you're obviously wrong. A STs only player has what, half a dozen snaps per game where he might make an impact? Approximately half of all kickoffs were touchbacks this year so those are not potential impact plays. On average you're looking at maybe two or three kick returns per game per team. With punts out of bounds and fair catches you have about the same for punt returns. There were 35 blocks of FGs or PAT in the 256 games so that's maybe twice a year that a player might make an impact. A TD or turnover matters just as much on offense or defense as it does on STs. The only difference is opportunities. So if your choice is between sub scrub who might only get 6 plays per game then you can pick any of the phases., but if you have a 4th DE or a 4th RB he's probably going to get more opportunities to provide impact on offense or defense than he will on STs. And if you factor in injuries, it's not even close. The total STs snaps aren't going to move up due to injury to a player ahead of him, but the change in the number of snaps if the offensive or defensive depth chart is altered can be huge.
And yet, it does, the playoffs have demonstrated that such players are worth their roister slots for their ST play alone.
Only b/c you can't seem to acknowledge the impact the players are having in the other phases even more often.
Any who get more than a half dozen snaps per game. If a guy like Hilliard makes a few blocks then he has as much or more of an impact. If a 3rd or 4th LB or DL or CB plays more than a half dozen snaps he has more impact.
