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Take Away His 'X' Best Carries and He's Average

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DevilFin13, Apr 3, 2015.

  1. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Interesting post at Football Perspective on running backs and yards per carry.

    Just thought it was interesting. And it made me wonder about Miller's future with the team if he has another season like this. Given our likely cap constraints I'm not sure we could afford to pay a lot for a RB, even a really good one.
     
  2. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Lamar Miller is one of the best players on the team from a production-to-salary ratio perspective.
     
  3. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Miller had a really underrated year last year. He was consistent and high quality, I think the question is actually what level of workload he can take and continue producing like that.
     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    its pretty amazing how this dude got 1100 yards and an over 5 ypc average...makes me question everything, even my own evaluation...either lazor is a genius in the run game or miller is deceptively way better than we think.

    I know this, Miller hasn't reached his ceiling and we can do better as far as putting an oline out there.

    this is great news...heres why imo, i believe its taken these past two years for lamar to adjust to the pro game, i see it in his balance, as in its been off at times for no reason, miller has very good feet in traffic, can weave and bob in small areas at full speed, once his equilibrium catches up to his feet and he's running on pure instinct i believe you will notice it more..this year he could break out.

    whats strange is when watching him last year i don't recall ever saying that guy is a great back..the numbers say differently.
     
  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Miller was like the opposite of the defense. Everyone talked about how we had an "elite" defense, when they really weren't, and everyone moaned about Lamar Miller, despite the fact that he was putting up pretty good numbers the entire year. I was continuously *****ing to my buddy about Lamar's Madden rating, since he was putting up such good numbers, and was consistently undervalued in Madden (I know that Madden really has no relation to actual football, but it kind of shows the lack of respect that Lamar got on a national level).
     
  6. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If miller had the so called " best success rate" in football can someone explain how we're supposed to interpret that stat?
     
  7. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So per play, he produced more than what you would expect based on average production across the league.
     
  8. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2004/introducing-running-back-success-rate

    In that respect Miller was the "anti-Reggie Bush" in 2014. Whereas Bush would mix runs of a longer distance with a bunch of stuffs behind the line, Miller avoids runs for losses while also producing the longer runs Bush did.
     
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  9. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    All year people talked about how Tannehill was a changed man. Well, the stats were better but I thought Tannehill was just playing a more efficiently scripted kind of game. I passed on Tannehill being a "different guy" but pointed out all year how Lamar Miller was.

    I remember saying all throughout last season that Lamar Miller was displaying a kind of toughness and physicality that I hadn't seen from him before. Maybe it came from hanging out with Frank Gore in the off-season or seeing Knowshon Moreno come in that lit a fire under him, but there's little doubt that Lamar Miller was a different guy last year.

    I honestly thought he'd wind up getting banged up and injured mid-way through the season. That never happened and he wound up with nearly 1,100 yards. He could very well end up being a slightly different Lesean McCoy honestly. Both backs are similar in size but yet seem to be able to carry a full workload without getting injured.
     
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  10. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Jarvis Landry also had a great great yr, almost 2k apy as a rook.

    That is rare for a full time Wr/Returner, he was a solid pick up that I was not wild about but he has proven me wrong.

    Landry quietly was 4th in the league in APY
     
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  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  12. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    That's a part of it, but the "success rate" statistic is a little more elaborate, in that it defines "success" as being more than just a positive run. The run has to achieve a certain percentage of what's needed for a first down, based on the current down and distance.

    Miller was the best in the league at that, whereas Bush in my opinion, when he played for the Dolphins, was absolutely terrible. He seemingly displayed little or no understanding of what was needed from a run, based on the down and distance and the game situation. He was going to try his best to be "Barry Sanders," regardless of the game situation. It was a very "selfish" way of playing in my opinion. Very non-team-oriented.
     
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  13. Larry Little

    Larry Little Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's Chip Kelly's Zone-Read system, mostly.

    "In 2011, LaMichael James ran for a school-record 1,805 yards on just 247 carries and scored 18 rushing touchdowns with a 7.3 yards-per-carry average. In 2012, Kenjon Barner replaced James with a season just as great -- 1,767 rushing yards on 278 carries and 18 rushing touchdowns with a 6.4 yards-per-carry mark.

    And then, there was LeSean McCoy, who in 2013 became the first Eagles player to win an NFL rushing title since Steve Van Buren did it in 1949. McCoy rushed for 1,607 yards on 314 carries and nine rushing touchdowns. He also led the league in yards from scrimmage by adding 539 receiving yards on 52 catches."

    http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/07/17/chip-kelly-philadelphia-eagles-running-backs-lesean-mccoy
     
  14. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Give some credit to the OL, the run blocking was pretty damn good. It's not like Miller was out there bulldozing people or juking them outta their cleats.

    The problem is what DPate said, Miller can handle so much, about 12-15 carries IMO, another good back is needed.
     
  15. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He did get hurt, vs Buffalo or in the week leading to Detroit. He has only 5 carries and clearly wasn't himself, it probably cost us the game. Overall I agree though, he was more decisive and physical than ever last year.

    If he stays in the 12-15 carry range he can run for 1000+ for the next 5-6 years. If it goes the other way and he's stuck carrying the load primarily on his own I fear for his longevity.
     
  16. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Though, as the original post points out, Miller performed better on a yards per carry basis than DeMarco Murray, who was thought to be running behind perhaps the best line in the league, even when the longest runs of the year are removed from the calculation for both players.
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's certainly an interesting perspective, to say that Tannehill played to much better stats, and was more efficient, but that somehow equates to him not being a different QB. I think it's safe to say that both players showed marked improvement last year.
     
  18. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agreed. Tannehill showed well, I'd still like to see better production vs the stingier defenses tho. Things seemed to grind to a halt when the run game wasn't a factor, that's when you want your QB to be able to step up and carry the O, at least on occasion.
     
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  19. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ypc yes, but in the run game quantity can be a quality in its own right and Murray was clearly superior in that regard.
     
  20. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    How is it an interesting perspective? It's very basic. Tannehill is still not good enough to put the team on his back. He still isn't very elusive in the pocket and thus he takes a lot of sacks. He tends to have trouble with ball placement on deeper throws and will throw it into trouble if you give him the chance.

    Look...I'm not complaining, just saying he is what he has always been. Of course he's matured the same way all young QBs do--but that doesn't mean he's changed his stripes. He's the same guy we drafted--just a more groomed and polished version of his 2012 self. He is what he is. Bill Lazor didn't change any of that. What Bill Lazor did was minimize his weaknesses by turning him into a low YPA QB with a high completion percentage and get him moving around a little bit on designed runs.

    Great. Who's complaining? Just stating things as they happened.
     
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  21. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think Tannehill has improved as much as any QB drafted in the last 3-5 years.
     
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  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Who said anything about complaining? I said that I think it's an interesting perspective. I mean, you say he's the same as he was in 2012, when he's clearly not. If he was, he'd have a similar stat line. For the 2/3 of the season last year, Tannehill was playing at a top 10 QB level, including 7+ypa. If he's more groomed and polished, it means he's gotten better. That's the point of grooming and polishing. I am expecting more improvement from him next season. I'm not going to get into the whole "carry the team on his back" debate again, but it's simply not true.

    Hopefully Miller shows improvement next year, like how Tannehill has improved each year. Would be nice to have both of them playing at a high level.
     
  23. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Right, but what I'm getting at is how much to attribute Miller's play to him versus his offensive line. If Miller is averaging more yards per carry than the guy thought to be running behind the league's best line, who also has loads of talent himself (Murray), that would suggest Miller has some pretty good talent in his own right.
     
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  24. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I've always thought Miller was a stud. I've liked him since he has been on the team. Even before last year when he would run out of the spread he would do damage. The year before the OL was horrible opening holes for any back.
     
  25. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Miller's consistency was really good. I was impressed last year how he rarely broke a big one but still had a great YPC
     
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  26. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Imagine what he could do behind a solid line for the whole season!
     
  27. Larry Little

    Larry Little Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'd love the opportunity to see a Melvin Gordon or a Todd Gurley in this system... and then, see what you guys had to say about Miller in hindsight. It would be interesting.

    I don't think Miller is anything special. But, that's just my opinion.
     
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  28. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Miami isn't running nearly that much zone read to make Miller that much more effective above and beyond what he actually is.
     
  29. Larry Little

    Larry Little Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We run a Zone-Read system. The Inside and Outside Zone read are our two base running plays. We run them the majority of the time.
     
  30. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Agreed. I was responding to a post that credited everyone except the OL, I didn't mean to imply that Miller doesn't deserve his props. Dallas' OL is considered one of if not the best, yet our OL is considered a weak link. It doesn't add up for me. Either our OL is better than advertised or we don't need a good OL in order to run effectively. Either way I'm salivating over the thought of Miller and another good back combining to give us 25-30+ carries per game, creating that 1-2 punch is vitally important for the success of the offense IMO.
     
  31. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There wasn't a ton of zone read but inside/outside zone from the shotgun was a major component of the run game, perhaps too big a component. Running more with the QB under center should be a goal for this season.
     
  32. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yeah I guess finally I may not have to argue against prominet posters on this very site that have told me time and time again that its a gimmick or it won't last..they know who they are..

    its also why tannehill needs to get his average rushes a game up tot 5 per game.
     
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  33. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Or, guys like Satele and Colledge were better at run blocking than most suspected.
     
  34. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic 30 years and counting Club Member

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    I've always hated this type of argument for someone like Murray. goes back to Barry Sanders, people would comment that if you took away his home run carries then he'd be left with the -2 to 2 yard gains. not valid. he was a HOF running back and you can't ignore the big plays.
     
  35. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would be shocked if the majority of run plays league-wide in any given year aren't inside and outside zone plays.

    The "read" component isn't really there with any meaningful frequency. Miller didn't gain a bunch of yards operating with a numbers advantage. It's something they pulled out from time to time when they thought they could catch a defense with it.
     
  36. Larry Little

    Larry Little Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Zone Read isn't a gimmick. I think it's going to establish itself much like the West Coast offense did because it has a sound philosophy behind it. The offense will evolve just like all other offenses evolve, but, I think it will remain in some form for quite a while, because it works.

    Seattle has been running Inside Zone read plays for at least two seasons. The Patriots run them. Several other teams have their own version of it. I've seen Buffalo and the Jets run it against us. I haven't seen one person on this site mention that, and I've specifically been watching for it. Now, I don't know if any other team runs it as much as the Eagles and Phins do, but, the Zone Read... especially the Inside Zone read (the staple play of the offense)... is becoming a staple in the NFL.

    People do not pay attention.
     
  37. Larry Little

    Larry Little Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pulling the play out 'from time to time', #1, is just plain wrong. They run the the Inside play quite often. #2, it goes against the entire philosophy of the offense. The offense does not work if you don't do a number of different things out of the Inside Zone read formation. This includes the RB inside, the pitch to the opposite side, the power dive to the opposite side, the QB keeper, the play-action pass, the WR screen... it has a ton of different options. If you don't understand that, then you don't understand our offense.

    But, whatever... keep on talking. You are welcome to be as wrong as you like.
     
  38. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Bush's last year here he was top 10 in success rate. Your memory of Bush is faulty.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb2012

    Far right is the success rate ranking.

    EDIT: Their success rate is defined as:
    Pretty reasonable.

    Bush wasn't great in 2011, yeah. But his 2012 was just fine.
     
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  39. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree with the argument that the biggest reason for our improved run stats last year was Lazor's system. I thought the run spacing was excellent last year. Now I thought Miller did a better job of hitting the right hole than he had previously. I think that helped up his consistency. But I don't feel he often got anymore than what was blocked for. I don't recall him ever carrying the team on his shoulders or taking over a game. The only time our run game did that all year was when Moreno did it in week 1.

    I disagree with the notion that Tannehill didn't ever carry the team just b/c he wasn't as elusive as we'd like in the pocket or that he just played an efficient game and that's it. I thought there were several games where his passing was all that was carrying us. I don't believe that he can make up for a crappy D, buy himself more than half of the time, but I do think he's good enough to give you a chance most weeks. Most QBs can't make up for a poor D. Even Marino was an 8-8 to 9-7 QB many of those years when our defense was poor. I think that RT should use his run ability more. There were points where his run ability did dictate games. And there were flashes where he showed his elusiveness (just inconsistently). I think part of that is the OL. QB's can generally show their escapability when there are singular OL breakdowns rather than pressures from both inside and outside. Once Albert went down, too often he faced pressure from OL breakdowns at both G and T. Almost all QBs struggle when facing that. If we can get our interior OL to just be average then I think you'd see a more elusive Tannehill. If we can get a dominant run game going like we had in that first game, then I think you'd see Tannehill put up a top 5 in the league statistical season. And if our D got back to playing like it did before Delmas got hurt then we'd be a very good team.
     
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  40. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Most seem to forget that inconvenient truth.
     

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