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Tannehill = dead last in Total Quarterback Rating?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by normaldude, Nov 10, 2015.

  1. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    As I said, no system is perfect, and no system tells the whole story. Your eyes tend to be a better test. My opinion though is that in the end, passer rating tends to match up most of the time to my eyes.

    In my head right now, without looking up the numbers, I'd say there are around 16 quarterbacks playing better. Tannehill is 18th in passer rating. It matches up.

    But then again, Cam Newton is one of those 16, and he's 26th in passer rating (mainly because his completion percentage is awful) right now. So, it definitely doesn't tell the whole story. It's just a tool.
     
  2. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    This is exactly what I'm talking about. How does this make any sense? ESPN's QBR has to be the worst numbers system of all time.
     
  3. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    I think its pretty rare for a QB to get anywhere near 100 passer rating just from garbage time stats.

    When the formula was created 100+ was supposed to be the cream of the crop and (I believe) 80 was supposed to be an average game (maybe 70?). Obviously 80 is not average anymore, 90 or even higher is average in todays NFL.
     
  4. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    If you look at passer rating over the years it has been pretty accurate for ranking QBs, it's not perfect, but nothing is, but there are not many horrible rankings that make you say, "no friggin way!", it has been pretty darn accurate, you might want to change QBs within a few spots, but it's very rare to see a QB 10 or more spots away from where he aught to be.
     
  5. normaldude

    normaldude Active Member

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    Does anyone know where Tannehill ranks in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades for QBs?
     
  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No, the QBR looks at what quarterbacks actually do instead of just giving them credit for what the receiver does.

    In other words, when Tannehill throws a three foot pass to Landry and he runs 14 yards, the standard QB rating says that Tannehill threw a 12 yard pass. QBR says he threw a completely safe pass behind the line of scrimmage and Landry gained 14 yards. Big difference there since QBR takes into account what actually happened.

    Another example, let's say Tannehill throws a 35 yard pass to Stills. If the pass is short and Stills has to slow down to catch it, then QBR gives Tannehill credit for a 35 yard pass....regardless of whether Stills breaks a tackle and gains additional yards or not. But let's say that same pass is perfect, hits Stills in stride and he runs an additional 40 yards for a TD.....then QBR gives Tannehill credit for a 75 yard TD pass since his actions directly led to the outcome.

    So saying QBR is faulty because Tannehill comes in dead last is ridiculous- he throws primarily one yard passes and lets his receivers do the heavy lifting. That's our offensive system though because that's all he is trusted to do consistently.
     
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  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Cuz...FOOTBALL!

    It's the lamest attempt at being relevant by that assclown organization. Like I said earlier, Landry throws a horrible pass that gets caught and the receiver does the work and gets a first down, and he gets a 95 QBR (almost perfect). Small sample size doesn't matter, you can sum it up on that one play. That Landry isn't a QB never enters the equation...that the pass was horribly thrown behind and to the wrong side doesn't matter...it resulted in a first down. Plenty here would be blasting RT for that throw, yet ESPN has it as near perfect. THAT'S a good example of why their system is a steaming pile of dog****.

    And as far as the "devil we know," yes, passer rating correlates to winning fairly well...but it ALSO correlates to what the whole offensive TEAM is doing, including the QB and everybody else, in the passing game (OC included). The media and knuckledraggers like to prop it up as a definitive measurement of a QB's individual play...but it isn't. Maybe close at times, far at times, dead on at times, but it DOES NOT singularly, effectively reflect the QB's performance. Nothing does that I know of...doesn't mean it's acceptable in that role just because there's "nothing better."
     
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  8. normaldude

    normaldude Active Member

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    I don't think that's true.

    For 2015 "Air Yards per Pass Attempt", Tannehill is currently ranked #17 out of 32 ranked QBs. Pretty average in that category.

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2015/
     
  9. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Two things: That just ranks cumulative. I'd look at percentage as more accurate. That said, he's also middle of the road. The Houston game is an outlier with 90% of his yardage being YAC. But in general, he's actually middle of the road.

    Second, that only tracks completions, even though it says attempts. Air yards per attempt (including incompletions) is a good barometer of how far down the field the passing offense is.
     
  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah, of the choices available, I prefer Y/A because it removes more of the rest of the team's influence than the others. Of course, as with all stats, tons of context is lost but that's another story.


    There is a different type of discussion one could have about how good passer rating is as a stat, a debate from a purely mathematical point of view. Consider these stats:
    http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

    They show you the correlation with wins of passer rating, as well as for every component of passer rating, from 1990-2011. It says passer ratings has a 0.51 correlation with wins over that time. The other components? Y/A = 0.43, TD/A = 0.44, Comp % = 0.32 and INT/A = -0.31.

    Point is, you get so much mileage out of each of the components (0.51 and 0.44 are not that far apart) that one could argue the formula for passer rating isn't that good a formula from a purely mathematical point of view because it doesn't look like it's combining the individual components that well, especially considering they're not so obviously related (e.g. why would Y/A and TD/A necessarily be related?). That's just "eyeballing" a stat (ha!) but I bet a more fancy analysis would demonstrate that to be true (also means if people ever got serious about applying stats to football, there's some low-hanging fruit.. problem is stuff takes time to do).
     
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  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    personnaly I think PFF stats are the better ones than these two..

    does anyone have where ryan is ranked in those?
     
  12. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    he's not in top 10..

    Brady..Palmer tied..Berger..Dalton..Carr..Ryan..Brees...Rogers...Rivers..and Tyrod Taylor..{love that kid}

    cant get the rest.
     
  13. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Right...correlates well to winning...not the QB's individual play...it should be called offense rating or passing rating...not PASSER rating, implying the QB only.
     
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here are Tannehill's first ten passes "in the air" last week- 1 yard, 0 yards, 1 yard, 3 yards, 2 yards, 7 yards, 0 yards, 3 yards, 1 yard, 2 yards.

    That's a 2 yard average....and it's only that high because of the one he threw for 7. Now, that's not to say that he's that low in every game, but when he chooses not to run the ball and most of his throws are screens, he's doing very little to win or lose the game. Because let's face it; name any QB in the league that can't throw for 20 "in the air" yards on 10 attempts....high school QB's have more impressive numbers. But that's where the YAC lies and makes Tannehill appear a lot more special than he really is.
     
  15. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    according to football outsiders miami ranks 13th in offensive efficiency while playing behind the 24th rated oline. it seems to me the dink and dunk offense you hate so much is the best one suited for our poor oline. we cant get enough pass protection to try the long distance game so let's try to get the ball to our playmakers in space and have them pick it up on their own. i cant fathom any coach trying for a deep passing game with such a poor oline. this is how you compensate for a poor oline. dink and dunk. thats not on tannehill thats on the lazor and given the talent level it may be the correct formula. at the end of the day you cant run an offense the way you wish. it has to be tailored to the talent

    if you want more long passes, and i do too, you have to improve the oline first to allow for it
     
  16. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Couldn't find it but found this:

    https://twitter.com/PFF_Ben/status/661997822703706112

     
  17. MAFishFan

    MAFishFan Team Tannehill

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    I guess no one will be happy until Marino Part 2 arrives. So, yeah, good luck
     
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  18. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  19. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Seattle has the 15th ranked offense with the 32nd ranked o-line. They don't dink and dunk.
     
  20. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    seattle's is the 25th ranked oline. basically the same as miami. slightly worse pass protection slightly better run blocking. seattle is 15th in offensive efficiency. so basically these offenses are the same in terms of output. what's the difference in terms of won/loss...the defense obviously. seahawks have the 7th ranked defense and miami 27th. the seahawks defense cuts down the points necessary to stay competitive and keeps them in the game longer. it also makes every score more impactful. if you need 28 points to win and you get a TD you are only 1/4 of the way to your goal. if you need 14 and score a TD you are 1/2 way to your goal

    as to dink and dunk we scored 171 points. they have scored 167. we're #8 in passing yds. they are 27th in passing yds. they are #3 in rushing yds. we are #19. they move the ball on the ground. we do it through the air with pretty much the same effectivenss. the only difference is one team has a 7th ranked defense and the other 27th. and that difference equates to a one game difference in record at this stage of the season
     
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  21. normaldude

    normaldude Active Member

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    [​IMG]

    So if you look at QBs with 300+ snaps, PFF ranks Tannehill at #19 out of 31 QBs.

    So basically:

    - Miami's Team Passer Rating: #17 out of 32 teams.

    - Tannehill's Pro Football Focus QB Rating: #19 out of 31 ranked QBs.

    - Tannehill's ESPN "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR): #32 out of 32 ranked QBs.
     
    Unlucky 13 likes this.
  22. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    lol. eli manning 53rd qb, joe flacco 49th but brandon weeden 39th. yeah these stats are keepers lol
     
  23. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Where do you see their o-line is ranked 25th on Football Outsiders? I see 32nd.

    And you said our offense is ranked 13th which proves the dink and dunk is good to masks our poor o-line. Their offense is ranked 15th with an even worse o-line and if you watched their games you would know they don't dink and dunk. So you can have a decent offense despite a poor o-line while throwing it down the field.
     
  24. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    it is not a worse oline. It's the same. You are only using pass blocking. I'm combining run and pass since the line has to do both
    and if you can run it slows down the pass rush
    And they are not a throw it down the field team.they are not a passing team. They are a running team. The comparison is running vs DINK and dunk. Not throwing deep vs DINK and dunk
     
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  25. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    PFF has ruined football.
     
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  26. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    No, just football message boards and football "journalism".
     
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  27. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    OK so for Seattle you combined the two but how did you calculate our line is ranked 24th?

    How about last year? If you combine the 2 our line would have been ranked 14th, which last I checked, is above average. Its at least the average line that everybody clamors is all we need to accurately judge Tannehill.
     
  28. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Really, stats can be cherry picked to make the case for pretty much any argument.

    The only stats that are worth anything is when you pair them with play by play.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  29. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Just combine both rankings for each team and list them from top to bottom with the least points at the top. Going off my memory I think the bengals were best with a combined score of 8 and san Fran was worst with around 60 lol. We were around 44 or 42

    Have to check last yr
     
  30. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Does a good job of summing up Tannehill in a nutshell. Rosenthal could replace the word "season" with the word "career."

    "Tannehill's game against Buffalo typified his season. There was nothing terribly wrong with it, but he couldn't finish drives and he lacked difference-making throws in crucial moments of the game."

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000578287/article/qb-index-ranking-the-starters-from-1-to-32

    Outside of die-hard fans of Tannehill it seems to be pretty much universally agreed that Tannehill falls somewhere between 20th-25th in QB rankings.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

    http://www.fftoday.com/rankings/playerwkrank.php

    http://www.harrisfootball.com/ranks/
     
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  31. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I agree. Why would anyone look at any kind of stats to determine the rating of a player? All you have to do is look at the teams record and the lack of scoring in the games the Dolphins have lost to know that Tannehill has not continued to grow as a QB this year.
     
  32. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill is an average QB. But in a league where average QBs are valuable, he's a keeper. He looks like he can be pretty good with a good/great team around him. Nothing about him tells me he will be great, but that's okay. It'd be nice, but it is what it is.
     
  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    That's not all actually, because that is precisely what PFF does.

    The eyes need to be good.
     
  34. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Ill posit this in this thread:

    If just about any QB can be really good behind a great offensive line...

    Then does it make sense to try and find a great QB, or to build a great offensive line?

    I would think its easier to build a great line, then it is to find a great QB, isnt it?


    Ive seen some say Andy Dalton is a great QB. But hes only ever played behind a great O Line...so how do you know if hes really a great QB, or if hes just one of the QBs who can look great behind a great offensive line?
     
  35. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    I'll go with the 20/25% gms that had him as a tier 2 qb. Even the other 75/80 % had him as tier 3 which is better than the 20th you're going with. I'll stick with the pros you stay with the amateurs
     
  36. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    On what universe is it almost universally agreed he is a 20 to 25th range QB. I dont think Ive ever seen anyone outside the lynch mob in here who thinks that.
     
  37. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That GM survey was just 4 tiers total. So he was one tier above the bottom. Here there are 5 tiers and he's one above. It's all how you define the tiers.

    This is what was said about tier 3 in that survey

    That was before the season though. That may have changed by now.
     
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  38. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Of course you would. No one has a bigger crush on Tannehill than you.

    The "pros" only had him as the "17th" ranked QB in that poll and that poll was done in July of this year or at least published at that time. So to go with the pros you have to ignore the first half of this season. Most reports were that Tannehill had taken another step up in his game and leadership. He was trending up big-time before the season started. Obviously those reports were flat-out wrong!

    Some of the QBs behind Tannehill in that poll were: Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, Josh McCown, Brian Hoyer and Fitzgerald wasn't ranked (Geno was) or Taylor (Cassel was).

    And do you seriously think any one of those pros wouldn't have moved at least 5 or more ahead of Tannehill based on this half season of play if it was done today? Never mind answering that. I'm sure you think none of the pros would have moved anyone past Tannehill and by now the "pros' would have Tannehill in their top 10, knocking on the door of the top 5...lol

    Can you reference even "ONE" pro say that Tannehill has taken his game and/or leadership to another level this year? I challenge you to provide "ONE" legit source from a pro outside of the Dolphins organization that claims Tannehill has improved as a passer and/or leader this year and moved up the QB ranking...just ONE.
     
  39. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Before the season, according to the GM survey, he was 17. That's not far from 20.

    Hmm, a professional in the NFL using his losing record as a QB stat. Hmmmm

    I'm going with these pros too.
     
  40. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Hmm..havent read that before. Obviously if someone who knows how to evaluate QBs professionally states this, you have to take their information seriously, I have no problem with that.
     

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