With Ted Ginn's recent struggles on offense, and lack of presence on special teams, I thought now might be an appropriate time to review his standing as a first-round wide receiver. I am hoping that this research will help to shed light on Ginn's recent performance woes, as well as offer encouragement for the future. For the purposes of this evaluation, I'm solely gauging Ginn's performance thus far as a wide Receiver, as it is becoming increasingly clear that is what his role is on this team (much to my chagrin, but that's another topic for another day.) Wide Receivers Drafted in the First Round (Since 1998) First, we need to determine who we compare Ginn to and the only real way to do that is to review recent history. For the purposes of this exercise, I have chosen all First Round Wide Receivers taken since 1998. I'll be particularly interested in comparing those taken in the Top 10, as Ginn was a #9 pick. 1998 - Kevin Dyson (#16), Randy Moss (#21), Marcus Nash (#30) 1999 - Torry Holt (#6), David Boston (#8), Troy Edwards (#13) 2000 - Peter Warrick (#4), Plaxico Burress (#8), Travis Taylor (#10), Sylvester Morris (#21), Jay Soward (#29) 2001 - David Terrell (#8), Koren Robinson (#9), Rod Garner (#15), Santana Moss (#16), Freddie Mitchell (#25), Reggie Wayne (#30) 2002 - Donte Stallworth (#13), Ashley Lelie (#19), Javon Walker (#20) 2003 - Charles Rogers (#2), Andre Johnson (#3), Bryant Johnson (#17) 2004 - Larry Fitzgerald (#3), Roy Williams #7), Reggie Williams (#9), Lee Evans (#13), Michael Clayton (#15), Michael Jenkins (#29), Rashaun Woods (#31) 2005 - Braylon Edwards (#3), Troy Williamson (#7), Mike Williams (#10), Matt Jones (#21), Mark Clayton (#22), Roddy White (#27) 2006 - Santonio Holmes (#25) 2007 - Calvin Johnson (#2), Ted Ginn Jr. (#9), Dwayne Bowe (#23), Robert Meachem (#27), Craig Davis (#30) Overall there have been a total of 42 Wide Receivers taken in Round 1 since 1998, and of these 42, 17 have been taken in the Top 10, including our very own Ted Ginn Jr. I didn't recall that many being drafted, but the numbers don't lie. First Year Wide Receivers In order to gain perspective, it's important to note that Wide Receiver development is a tricky thing. Some guys come in, set the league on fire, and quickly flame out. Other players take a little bit longer to develop, but they reward the teams that display patience. The draft is not an exact science. Gauging potential from a handful of games is not, either. Future Pro Bowlers are listed in italics. Code: [b][u]Player[/u] [u]Catches[/u] [u]Yards[/u] [u]TDs[/u] [u]YPC[/u][/b] [i]Randy Moss[/i] 69 1313 17 19.03 Michael Clayton 80 1193 7 14.91 Dwayne Bowe 70 995 5 14.21 [i]Andre Johnson[/i] 66 976 4 14.79 Lee Evans 48 843 9 17.56 Santonio Holmes 49 824 2 16.82 [i]Roy Williams[/i] 54 817 8 15.13 [i]Torry Holt[/i] 52 788 6 15.15 [i]Larry Fitzgerald[/i] 58 780 8 13.45 Calvin Johnson 48 756 4 15.75 Rod Garner 46 741 4 16.11 Troy Edwards 61 714 5 11.70 Sylvester Morris 48 678 3 14.13 Donte Stallworth 42 594 8 14.14 Peter Warrick 51 592 4 11.61 [i]Koren Robinson[/i] 39 536 1 13.74 Ashley Lelie 35 525 2 15.00 [i]Braylon Edwards[/i] 32 512 3 16.00 [i]David Boston[/i] 40 473 2 11.83 Mark Clayton 44 471 2 10.70 Roddy White 29 446 3 15.38 Bryant Johnson 35 438 1 12.51 Matt Jones 36 432 5 12.00 [b]Ted Ginn Jr. 34 420 2 12.35 [/b] David Terrell 34 415 4 12.21 Troy Williamson 24 372 2 15.50 [i]Reggie Wayne[/i] 27 345 0 12.78 [i]Javon Walker[/i] 23 319 1 13.87 Freddie Mitchell 21 283 1 13.48 Travis Taylor 28 276 3 9.86 Plaxico Burress 22 273 0 12.41 Reggie Williams 27 268 1 9.93 Kevin Dyson 21 263 2 12.52 Charles Rogers 22 243 3 11.05 Craig Davis 20 188 1 9.40 Rashaun Woods 7 160 1 22.86 Jay Soward 14 154 1 11.00 Michael Jenkins 7 119 0 17.00 Marcus Nash 4 76 0 19.00 [i]Santana Moss[/i] 2 40 0 20.00 Mike Williams 4 29 1 7.25 Robert Meachem 0 0 0 0.00 There are several pieces of data that stand out when looking at this information. It's encouraging to see where Ginn ranks when compared to other first rounders. His Performance was 23rd out of 41, which just under middle-of the road. I'm most excited to see that Ginn's performanace closely matches that of Reggie Wayne, who has a similar height (6'0) and build (198 lbs) to Ginn. Wayne has developed into one of the most consistent and solid wide receivers in the NFL. Conversely, I'm least excited to see that Ginn's performance closely maches that of Troy Williamson, who also has a similar height (6'1) and build (203 lbs). Williamson is now trying to ressurect his career in Jacksonville. Randy Moss came from another planet. There are a ton of failed wide receivers who had "better" years than Ted Ginn. No where is this more clear than when looking at Michael Clayton, who has just disappeared after a monster rookie year. A number of players failed to make any kind of impact in the NFL and are now gone. Ginn has already exceeded the careers of Charles Rogers, Rashaun Woods, Jay Soward, Marcus Nash, and Mike Williams. I'd pick him over a lot of the other flameouts. First year success usually translates into long term success. Of the receivers that went over 750 yards their rookie season (all 8 of them), the only one that went on to flame out was the aforementioned Clayton, whose career can only be termed "bizarre." I don't consider the Pro Bowl to be a be-all, end-all measuring stick. Most would argue that David Boston wasted his career, and Koren Robinson made the roster as a special teamer in 2005. Javon Walker has been lost since he left Green Bay. Of the WRs taken in the Top 10, Ginn exceeded the first year performances of David Terrell, Troy Williamson, Travis Taylor, Plaxico Burress, Reggie Willaims, Charles Rogers, and Mike Williams. He was exceeded by Top 10 picks Andre Johnson, Roy Williams, Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Peter Warrick, Koren Robinson, Braylon Edwards, and David Boston. What does all this mean? While it's fun to look at the numbers, it's not immediately clear what we have in Ginn. He's not looking like an insta-bust, in the Mike Williams or Marcus Nash mold, but he's clearly not the instant impact player, like Lee Evans or Larry Fitgerald. All this probably means we have a player somewhere in between. That's not a bad thing. I'll take a middle-of-the road wide receiver who may develop into something special, over someone who's only a one-hit wonder, any day of the week. Second Year Wide Receivers For our next study, I want to look at the performance of Wide Receivers in their second year in the league. I'm going to pare the original list of 41 down, concentrating solely on Pro-Bowl Players and What I consider potential Pro-Bowl players. I've excluded Ashley Lelie and Donte Stallworth from this list because they've been successful players, but I believe most would consider them #2 wide receivers. I specifically wanted to compare Ginn to first round talent that is among the best in the league. Code: [b][u]Player[/u] [u]Catches[/u] [u]Yards[/u] [u]TDs[/u] [u]YPC[/u][/b] Torry Holt 82 [b]1635[/b] 6 19.94 Randy Moss 80 1413 [b]11[/b] 17.66 Larry Fitzgerald [b]103[/b] 1409 10 13.68 Koren Robinson 78 1240 5 15.90 David Boston 71 1156 7 16.28 Andre Johnson 79 1142 6 14.46 Santonio Holmes 52 942 8 18.12 Braylon Edwards 61 884 6 14.49 Lee Evans 48 743 7 15.48 Reggie Wayne 49 716 4 14.61 Javon Walker 41 716 9 17.46 Roy Williams 45 687 8 15.27 Santana Moss 30 433 4 14.43 Once agan, this data is very telling. For Ginn to match the average second year of these players, he needs a total of 63 catches, 1009 yards, and 7 TDs. That's a pretty tall order for such a young player. Per game, that works out to 4 catches and 63 yards per game. Those numbers would exceed the numbers of Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Lee Evans, Reggie Wayne, Javon Walker, and Santana Moss. Many of the top echelon players benefitted from having an experienced WR lining up opposite of them. Moss had Carter in Minny. Holt had Bruce. Fitz had Boldin. Wayne had Harrison. We don't have that in Miami. Holt, Robinson, Holmes, Edwards, Wayne, and Walker all have benefitted from a solid Quarterback delivering them the ball. Because of the state of our team, and the fact that we have another regime in charge, I think it's unreasonable to ask Ginn to produce All-World numbers this season. If I were to ask the casual fan if they'd be satisfied with 90% of the average production above, I think most would answer a resounding "yes." Again, Ginn compares favorably to similar (i.e. speed) receivers. Holmes avered 942 yards, Evans 743 yards, and Wayne 716 yards. Conclusions The potential for disastrous WR picks is high in Round 1. We've seen a number of high-profile flameouts in the last 10 years. We’ve seen colossal disappointments, ranging from guys like Peter Warrick to Charles Rogers. The good news is that it doesn't appear Ted Ginn is one of those players - at least not yet. We've also seen a few wide receivers that have come in and made an instant impact, bucking the typical slow development curve seen in wide receivers. After separating the wheat from the chaff in year 2, the good wide receivers usually find a way to build on their performance from the previous year. Most of the really good Wide Receivers have benefitted from another player opposite of them or a seasoned QB throwing them the ball. I don't think we will see Ginn break 1000 yards receiving (particularly in this offense), but I do think it's reasonable to see him attain 90% of the average of this second year group. For the record, that works out to 57 catches, 908 yards and 6 TDs, or roughly 3.5 catches and 56.75 yards per game. It's my belief those numbers are reachable and easily obtainable, even with the slow start he's had in 2008. I think that most of us, as fans would be pleased with that. Now it’s up to Teddy to go out and produce.
I know it's a lot of data, but in light of the "Ginn sucks" threads, I thought a comprehensive look at first round wide receiver talent was in order. For what it's worth, it's only one game (and not enough data, really), but if we were to take yesterday's performance and extrapolate it for the remaining 13 games of the season he would end up with 73 catches for 712 yards, which would put him slightly behind Santonio Holmes, slightly ahead of Santana Moss, and right in line with what Reggie Wayne did in year 2.
Even if he doesn't reach the "average" or even the median, it's also good to see great names on that 2nd year list who gained 400-700 yards. It's the third year that is really really key to his career. Good info.
Great work. You may want to include Calvin Johnson in the 2007 Draft. Excellent analysis though, great read
Great work Odin!! The one thing I would love to look at that is not quantifiable is how the receivers that did succeed adapted to the NFL game. Did they bulk up? Did they alter the way they ran routes? Were they more physical at the line of scrimmage? Did they go from being guys afraid to catch the ball in the middle of the field to guys that took big hits and held on to the ball? All of those things also play a huge role in how they develop, and why some succeed vs why others fail.
Well not often a WR goes 1 overall, and well that year happened to be the year we took ginn, who you were trying to analyze, easy to overlook it.
I agree, there's a number of factors that play into WR development. If I were to list them, I'd include (in no particular order) - Practice Habits - Type of player they are - Quarterback play - Franchise stability - Players around them It's hard to quantify how good or not good Ted Ginn is in each of these categories.
My gut tells me Ginn is never going to live up to #9. Perhaps as a PR/KR but not as a receiver.. The trend is big strong guys that can catch the ball and take a hit.. And I don't think Ginn can develop in to that type of dominating WR... The best I'm hoping for is Santana Moss like production, which would be a godsend.
I added Charles. Interesting (to me, anyway) that he slots right underneath Larry Fitzgerald. I'd say they are similar type receivers, it's interesting their stats are so close to one another. He's already ahead of Santana Moss in terms of first year production. What's clear to me is that the slighter receivers (Santana, Reggie Wayne, Lee Evans), take longer to develop than the big receivers (Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, David Boston). The exception to this is Torry Holt, who benefitted from the Greatest Show on Turf. My assumption is the reason for the disparity is because smaller receivers depend on their speed and route running to get open, while bigger receivers rely on their physical gifts and ability to overpower the cornerback. This translates into a longer learning curve for most of them. Factor in that Ginn was more raw than most of these guys as a wide receiver coming out, and it's easy to see why he's had some struggles.
Reggie Bush has 26 receptions for 250 yards and 2 TDs already this season. If he can do that in 3 games, then Ginn better be able to double that in 16.
So if I understand Gish, you're looking for about 52 catches, 500 yards, and 4 TDs from Ginn this year? If so, I think that's beyond reasonable, and I'm in complete agreement with you.
Great work once again. I compared him to Santana Moss coming out. While Moss hasn't been great, he has produced an average of 50 catches and 785 yards a season. If Ginn can match those statistics as a second receiver (I expect us to get a number one in a short while), I'd be happy with him regardless of his draft position..
those wouldnt be bad numbers. just a minimum benchmark. considering how we are using our TEs and RBs, i'd consider 50+ catches from any WR to be a good thing. The ball has been getting spread out to everyone. That is a good thing. I still think there is no reason for concern with Ginn. Even comparing him to every other first round WR isn't telling the whole story. Ginn is himself, and no one else. He is in his own situation. He has his own set of skills, his own set of teammates, and his own set of coaches. On top of that, he has his own learning curve. He grew up with a learning disability. But that hasn't stopped him. His dad worked with him, and he found a way to work past his issues and grow acedemically and athletically. This kid has a lot of perceverance in him. It's really not fair to him to be criticizing him this early. None of us were made to believe that he was a polished route runner who was going to take the NFL by storm. He is still absorbing a lot of stuff. When he gets to the level where he plays solely off instincts. Thats when it's gonna get nasty. It's not time yet to question whether he will reach that point though.
Great job VO! You always have good write ups. I enjoy them. As far as him being drafted in the #9 slot, that doesn't boother me. At this point, I just want players who contribute. I'm tired of seeing our draft picks being out of the NFL after 3 years.
Boards are kind of slow, there has been some Ted Ginn talk in the Survivor thread and this was a great post so bump. Discuss the expectations of Ted Ginn Jr. here!
Ginn's production was very close to what V.O. found to be the average for a 2nd year player taken in the first round. I'd like to see more posts like against Buffalo, where Ginn can get a one on one race with the safety to the endzone. With more of those plays, Ginn should be able to score 10 TDs this year.
I'd say 5-6TDs is more reasonable for Ginn with a high of 8 (if he does returns too). 10 TDs is not common for many WRs, especially ones in an offense that spreads the wealth.
You guys are killin' me ... I was just getting ready to bump this with Year 2 and Year 3 compared. EDIT: Here's a look, moving from Year 2 to Year 3. http://forums.thephins.com/showthread.php?t=31840
Its really not that easy to judge Ginn's production thus far. Last year was his first year with a decent quarterback. Even last year Pennington couldn't really take advantage of Ginn's speed and talents. I wonder what Ginn would have done with Dan Marino or Payton Manning or Drew Brees. With Marino's accuracy and strong arm Ginn could have run full speed and Marino could have put the ball out in front of him.
