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Ted Ginn & Year 3

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Vengeful Odin, May 12, 2009.

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  1. Vengeful Odin

    Vengeful Odin Norse Mod

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    Perhaps no player on the current Dolphins roster divides the fan base more than Ted Ginn. Not since the days of John Beck can I recall a player who polarized fans more than #9. Some folks love him, and think he's destined for greatness. Others hate him and say he shies away from contact and is afraid of getting hit.

    Rather than try to explain or evaluate things like intangibles, a while back, I started a thread on my expectations for Ted Ginn's 2008 season production. Background: Heading into the 2008 season, I wanted to come up with a way to benchmark and quantify his performance throughout the season. In other words, I wanted to find a way statistically to model reasonable expectations for Ginn, throwing out anything that couldn't be measured.

    A quick recap: I started this process by taking the production of all first round draft picks for the last 10 years or so. For year two I then narrowed the field down to Pro Bowl or #1 receivers, and in the process I paired the list down from 41 draft picks to 13 players. As a reminder, here was my original pool of Year 2 players:

    [TABLE]Player Catches Yards TDs YPC
    Torry Holt 82 1635 6 19.94
    Randy Moss 80 1413 11 17.66
    Larry Fitzgerald 103 1409 10 13.68
    Koren Robinson 78 1240 5 15.90
    David Boston 71 1156 7 16.28
    Andre Johnson 79 1142 6 14.46
    Santonio Holmes 52 942 8 18.12
    Braylon Edwards 61 884 6 14.49
    Lee Evans 48 743 7 15.48
    Reggie Wayne 49 716 4 14.61
    Javon Walker 41 716 9 17.46
    Roy Williams 45 687 8 15.27
    Santana Moss 30 433 4 14.43[/TABLE]

    By aggregating those players together and then taking 90% of their production (first applying a constant that accounted for the variable of playing with Pennington, which all would concede handicaps him somewhat), I came up with a personal prediction (and, by extension, expectation) of Ginn to snag 57 catches for 908 yards and 6 TDs.

    Interestingly enough, prediction was almost spot on, with Ginn actually catching 56 balls for 790 yards and 2 TDs. In other words, my guesstimate of 90% production was spot on with catches, and slightly under in terms of yards. I consider TD production a toss-up, mainly because with all of the Wildcat madness there's really no way to adequately forecast it. In reality Ginn ended up with 89% compared to the sample in catches, 78% in yards, and 28% in TDs.

    I thought that it would be interesting, then, to take that same pool of players and see how they actually fared in Year 3 - the year our own Ted Ginn finds himself entering into. The results are ... interesting.

    [TABLE]Player Catches Yards TDs YPC
    Torry Holt 81 1363 7 16.83
    Randy Moss 77 1437 15 18.66
    Larry Fitzgerald 69 946 6 13.71
    Koren Robinson 65 896 4 13.78
    David Boston 98 1598 8 16.31
    Andre Johnson 63 688 2 10.92
    Santonio Holmes 55 821 5 14.93
    Braylon Edwards 801289 16 16.11
    Lee Evans 82 1292 8 15.76
    Reggie Wayne 68 838 7 12.32
    Javon Walker 89 1382 12 15.53
    Roy Williams 82 1310 7 15.98
    Santana Moss 74 1105 10 14.93[/TABLE]

    Here are some things from the data that stand out to me:
    • Holt and Moss pretty much maintained their ridiculous pace.
    • Oddly enough, current star receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson both regressed to under 1000 yards, as did Koren Robinson.
    • Santonio Holmes, Super Bowl Hero, really didn't change much, nor did the Colt's Reggie Wayne. At this stage in their career neither had broken 100 yards (Wayne has since exploded).
    • With the exception of Holmes and Wayne, all other receivers who did not go for 1000 yards in Year 2 broke out for 1000 Yards in Year 3.
    • Year 3 was the breakout year for since-faded players like Javon Walker and David Boston.
    What does this mean for Ted Ginn? Well one would reasonably expect him to somewhere in the middle of this pack. Statistically speaking, this equates to the mean average of the sample group - or in terms of raw goals, 76 catches, 1151 yards, and 8 TDs.

    That said, we already know he's fallen below the mean in Year 2 - more importantly we have that data already. So, we can then apply his growth curve as compared to our sample group of these star receivers and come up with more reasonable expectations. Based on his 2008 performance, Ginn's 2009 baseline should be:

    67 catches, 901 yards, and 2 TDs.

    These numbers are generated by comparing his stack ranking in Year 2 to our control group and extrapolating it to the Year 3 performance of the same control group. I think that they're more than fair goals, even factoring in the fact that Pennington doesn't have strength downfield, uncertainty with Camarillo, his rawness as a player, etc. If anything, I think it's a bit on the low side. That's why I termed it a baseline - if he doesn't meet/exceed these targets I'll be a bit disappointed.

    I like Ginn, and if he can find the consistency he's been lacking, I think he still can become a great NFL player. I think he's got the talent, but he's just got to put it all together. If he does, then I suspect I've set the bar low for him. It's up to him though. I'll be watching to see if he can actually go out and put up numbers like these this fall.
     
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  2. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Nice VO, but doesn't 909 and 6 td's make Ted Ginn more of a #2 Wr?
     
  3. Vengeful Odin

    Vengeful Odin Norse Mod

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    Yep. I would agree with that. That's the baseline - if he really wants to get into #1 territory he needs to grab about 75 catches for 1150 yards. TD production is all over the board for these guys - Holt and Fitz both had 5 and 6, while Braylon skewed the whole sample with 15.

    Reasonably speaking though, anything about those baselines (67 catches for 901 yards) would mean that Ginn has actually exceeded this projection. Or in layman's terms, displayed true growth as a player.
     
  4. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    He would have more yards if Penning10 was accurate on long passes. although Penning10 plays smart methodical football, Ginn's stats suffer b/c of the way Penning10 plays.
     
  5. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    I think we could see numbers like Santana Moss's 3rd year.
     
  6. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Chad Pennington is accurate on long passes and in my opinion, can throw them downfield. He's just a different Quarterback than others, as he doesn't take chances, which IMO is a smart thing. If Brett Favre, for example, was our QB last year, there's no way we go 11-5. JMO.
     
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  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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  8. Vengeful Odin

    Vengeful Odin Norse Mod

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    If you look at Glenn's season 3, you'll see he only played for 10 games. If we extrapolate that out over the course of a 16 game season, it works out to 80 catches for 1267 yards and 5 TDs, nearly spot on with what I've got projected as the average for my group of players. :lol:
     
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  9. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    i don't agree with Penning10 being accurate on long passes. he might have a few long passes when it comes to stats, but that's from the YAC. i don't like throwing out percentages if they're not factual but i would have to say a very high percentage of Penning10's INT's came from long pass attempts. When he throws out of his comfort zone, i get nervous. I'm fine with him throwing short passes, b/c it works for us, i'm just saying that it's not fair to Ginn. Penning10 is good for the team, but bad for Ginn. if that makes sense.

    I totally agree with you about favre. We all want a QB with a strong accurate arm, but the next best thing is a QB with an accurate short passing game. I'm eagerly awaiting to see if Henne's strong arm will be accurate in the NFL. If not, the Tuna and Company will kick him to the curb.
     
  10. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I'm not looking at statistics, just strictly his play on the field. I think he is accurate down field and has been a couple years now from the plays I've seen. The reason many feel that he's inaccurate is because he rarely throws the ball down field when his receiver is covered and his target did not come up with the ball. However, from what I've noticed, if you look at his throws down field, they usually occur when his target is wide open and is ahead of the defender.
     
  11. Vengeful Odin

    Vengeful Odin Norse Mod

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    I disagree with the general assumption that Penny isn't accurate down the field.

    The issue isn't about Pennington's accuracy down the field. It never has been. It's simply the fact that he lacks the arm strength to get it there.

    We all know Chad has average arm strength, at best. He can't zip the ball down field. This means that Chad has to loft the ball to get it down field. In other words, he lacks velocity on the pass, giving defenders more of a chance to close on the ball.

    This leads to more batted passes. It's doubly frustrating when players - like Ted Ginn - don't look the ball in and drop passes when they're open.

    This is also why you'll see him struggle in the red zone. Because the windows tighten, Chad doesn't have the arm to rifle a pass into a guy who's partially covered. That's part of the reason we kicked so many field goals last year.
     
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  12. Onehondo

    Onehondo Senior Member Club Member

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    Just curious about one thing. Seems like the same principle should apply to Ginn that was attributed to Brown's production, and that is that Brown can't be a 1000 yard runner if he doesn't get enough carries. Doesn't the same apply to Ginn? If Ginn doesn't have enough passes thrown to him to get the catches and yards to qualify as a ""1 receiver" does that make him a #2 receiver?
    I am not defending Ginn, I am more concerned with the receiving core as a whole rather than one receiver but I think Ginn should get a fair evaluation of his production. Of course you have to take into consideration how many passes are thrown to him in comparison to how many he catches.
     
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  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Enter Patrick Turner and Hartline.
     
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  14. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    is it just me or did you just say that you don't agree with the assumption that Penning10 isn't accurate down the field, but then followed that with reasons why he isn't accurate down the field? LOL

    if he has to loft the ball downfield (which gives the DB's a chance to intercept the ball) than he's not accurate. If Ginn has to stop in his tracks to catch a long pass, then he's not accurate. maybe he can make a long accurate loft down field if his target is the only one on the field, but in my mind, if you give a DB a chance to bat the ball or intercept it; you're not an accurate long passer!
     
  15. Vengeful Odin

    Vengeful Odin Norse Mod

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    I think we're saying the same thing. :lol:

    I just don't place arm strength in the same category as accuracy ... I think that they're mutually exclusive terms.

    There's a difference between a guy like Penny, who can get the ball there accurately, and a guy like say Akili Smith, who can throw the ball a mile but can't hit the broad side of a barn.
     
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  16. Vengeful Odin

    Vengeful Odin Norse Mod

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    Great point. How many FGs did we settle for with Wilford inactive on the sidelines?
     
  17. NJFINSFAN1

    NJFINSFAN1 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Pennington is fine and not the problem. Its plan and simple, Ginn needs to take a big step forward this year.
     
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  18. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    If someone on this team doesn't get 1000 yards and 9 touchdowns Im really going to be pissed we passed up on Boldin.
     
  19. msarances

    msarances New Member

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    Hey everyone, I am new here and this will be my first posting.

    I think the definition of the wide receiver along with his elevation of production is open to an incredible amount of variance. You can't analyze the receiver without taking into account the quarterback, the offensive system, and the circumstances in the games.

    For instance, which of the aforementioned receivers could you without question state would have had great years in teddy's rookie season considering how bad the dolphins quarterback play was? Think of how differently Ted would have grown into the position if he would have been drafted to be the second receiver to marvin harrison a few years ago the way Reggie Wayne was. Couldn't you see a much shorter learning curve?

    Also, although the dolphins lost an incredible number of games that rookie season, we didn't really get blown out in very many of them. There weren't many chances for "cheap statistics" because we were throwing the ball all over the field. We were still a grind out sort of team.

    We need Ted to continue to provide a threat vertically to a defense as well as increase is ability to get in and out of breaks over the middle and accelerate after the catch a la bruce/holt.

    If he provides that he can be a working #1 receiver on a team that we are all aware is going to continue to use the ground game and the misdirection of the WildPat to make plays.

    Have faith my friends, Teddy is making progress.
     
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  20. Xeticus

    Xeticus Junior Member

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    Even looking at your prediction I'm still unimpressed. If after 3 years he still doesn't break 1000 yards I'd be ready to give up on the Ginn experiment. I think he'll be decent receiver. He still doesn't seem like a first round receiver to me. Much less a top 10 one. I'd be to seem him go at this point just to have this debate end.
     
  21. Phinz420

    Phinz420 New Member

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    Yet Coach Sparano says that Ginn has made "tremendous progress", and hopes he continues on the path he is currently on.

    "Pennington s fine", but he is holding Ginn back due to his arm - or the lack of one.
     
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  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    nice first post brother.. welcome

    your first paragraph is spot on imo..adding to that is the fact that he had no mentor {chambers being traded}, with Mr. lemon and samkon gado as a dynamic combination that struck fear into defenses..

    I like how i have seen his game evolve, it hasnt been what i thought it would be when we drafted him, but the variables must be taken into account when assesing his game. The kid has not had an easy start like some of the players you mentioned. especially when marty booker was on the other side tankin it.
     
  23. arsenal

    arsenal Sunglasses and advil

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    depends on what kind of offense your in... if your in one that passes for 3000 yards, then no thats a number 1

    if your an in offense that passes for 4000 yards, thats probably a number 2's production...

    being a number 1 or a number 2 isn't about the total yards you put up, its about your role in an offense... and one like ours that is dedicated to spreading the ball around to utilize pennington's strengths with the short passing attack and spreading the field horizontally to overcome his limitations, its probably the production of a number 1 receiver...
     
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  24. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    Name - Yards - Percent of team passing yardage gained
    Steve Smith - 1,421 yards (43.2%)
    Andre Johnson - 1,575 yards (35.2%)
    Greg Jennings - 1,292 yards (32.0%)
    Hines Ward - 1,043 yards (31.6%)
    Wes Welker - 1,165 yards (31.5%)
    Larry Fitzgerald - 1,431 yards (31.2%)
    Terrell Owens - 1,052 yards (30.5%)
    Reggie Wayne - 1,145 yards (28.6%)
    Brandon Marshall - 1,265 yards (27.9%)
    Vincent Jackson - 1,098 yards (27.4%)
    Randy Moss - 1,008 yards (27.3%)
    Donald Driver - 1,012 yards (25.1%)
    DeSean Jackson - 912 yards (23.3%)
    Anquan Boldin - 1,038 yards (22.6%) *out for 4 games*
    Eddie Royal - 980 yards (21.6%)
    *data used from 2008 regular NFL season

    Ted Ginn in 2008 - 790 yards (21.6%)

    Ted Ginn in 2007 - 420 yards (12.7%)

    Judging by this data, I would say that:
    • An elite #1 WR should catch 30% or higher (there are exceptions, ie Randy Moss) of the teams' passing yardage.
    • A good #1 WR should catch between 25%-30% of the teams' passing yardage.
    • A borderline #1 WR/good #2 WR should catch between 20-25% of the teams' passing yardage.
    • A borderline #2 WR should catch between 15-20% of the teams' passing yardage.
    • Any WR that catches less than 15% of the teams' passing yardage is simply not of starting caliber.

    If Ted Ginn can have another 8.9% increase, it'd put him at 30.5%. This would put him in the Reggie Wayne/Terrell Owens area. This is rather unlikely, I'd expect less than half of that, so around a 3.0% - 4.0% increase. I expect Ted Ginn's number in 2009 to be between 25% - 26%... So if he can reach that goal, he'd be what I consider, statistically, a good #1 WR, but not elite.
     
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  25. arsenal

    arsenal Sunglasses and advil

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    nice... only issue is the nature of our offense last year was in spreading the ball around so its tough, i dont think we have a traditional offense... not to mention Ginn being used as a threat vertically often to open things up underneath....

    so its a tough issue, i dont understand the extreme fascination with number 1 WR vs number 2 WR and all of that... each team its different, its not about numbers its not about any of that, its about who is the number 1 option in the offense, who is the number 2... a number 2 can put up more yards than a number 1... doesn't mean hes now the number 1... Welker is not the number 1 in NE and no one would say he would, but he had more yards than Moss last year...

    so being a Number 1 or 2 or 3 isn't about how many yards you put up, its more how you contribute to the offense and who the defense really has to pay attention to mroe... we all know Welker would not have as many yards as he did without Moss, so even though Welker had more yards, Moss is the bigger threat in the offense making him the number 1 WR...
     
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  26. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    What would Ted's stats change to if Chad Henne was the quarterback?
     
  27. arsenal

    arsenal Sunglasses and advil

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    who knows, could be better or worse depending on how Henne pans out... the potential is there for a more explosive passing attack, which would lead to more passing yards which would lead to more yards for Ginn and any other WR out there as well...

    i think Ginn's deep speed and Henne's deep ball would help him in his yards and TDs factor... i can count of the top off my head 3 instances where Ginn had a step deep and if the pass would have led him, he would have scored TDs where instead he had to stop or come back to the ball and it cost a probable TD and many more yards... even if you just add those lost yards its probably about 100 more yards to his total and say 2 more TDs... and thast just what i can get from memory, and thats just the passes that were attempted, who knows how many werent because of the length of the pass necessary to hit him
     
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  28. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    I think Henne takes more chances than Pennington so they would be a little bit higher. I haven't seen enough film to say that statement with confidence though.
     
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  29. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    I would predict a similar amount of catches, in the 60's, with between 1,000 and 1,200 yards and at least double the TD's, 4. More big plays downfield, certainly.
     
  30. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    Wes is the perfect example of a teams use of a WR determining the stats of said WR. Remember while here (3 years) Wes only had 1 TD yet we all knew he was a good WR.

    I agree with msarances (Hi, and glad to have you on board :up:) if Teddy can become our field stretcher, think Paul Warfrield here, then he will have been a great pick IMHO.
     
  31. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    I thought trading Welker was of good value, but we were put in a position where we could not say no.

    If we say "No thanks" to New England's offer, they simply pull the Minnesota Viking tactic of throwing in the contract stipulation "If player plays more than 4 games in Miami, then X amount becomes guaranteed."

    It's a shame that the 2nd round pick we got from Wes turned out to be a waste.
     
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  32. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    So did I, still do, we got a second rounder for an undrafted FA off a PS.:wink2:
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The simple fact is, Ginn doesn't get thrown at as many times as other teams #1's. How is he then supposed to have as many catches/yards/td's? It's no secret, Penny doesn't have a strong arm, and that certainly hurts Ginn's production. Why people are so quick to write off an explosive player like Ginn, simply because we don't have a QB who can properly utilize his strengths, is beyond me.
     
  34. steveincolorado

    steveincolorado Spook, Storme & Pebbles

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    I think Ginn has not lived up to a #9 pick, but I hope he proves to be a threat this year. I'm not a huge fan of him, but again, I hope he proves to be a good player for us.:up:
     
  35. like2god

    like2god Typical white person Luxury Box

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    I think people need to take into account a few things. It's easy to look at stats alone and say "AH HA! Ginn's output isn't like that of Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson, so he isn't a #1 WR", but it's a little more involved than that.

    What style of offense do we run compared to other teams? How many passes are being thrown Ginn's way as opposed to the number of passes that Fitz, Johnson and others are seeing? What type of QB do those other WR's play with (arm strength)? Are those players their team's go to guy, the focus of the offense? Or do they have players like Ronnie Brown who are the teams best player? All of those things can conspire to make good players look less than their abilities would indicate.

    Asking Ginn to put up 1,000 yards in an offense that may not favor those players or with a QB who isn't comfortable throwing the ball downfield, is like asking a good RB to rush for 1,000 yards behind an average OL that is better at pass blocking than it is run blocking. If a top WR is getting twice as many catches as Ginn, of course he's going to have more yards and TD's. If a top WR plays in a pass happy offense, of course he is going to have better numbers. If a top WR has a QB that has a strong arm and who is willing to throw the ball downfield, he has something that Ginn doesn't and yes his numbers are going to be better.

    Not all players are playing in the same offensive system, so it's unfair to judge them all equally. You have to take other factors into consideration. I think Ginn has done very well considering the fact that he has had to change his game to fit this offense and QB. Ginn's game is speed and separation, he's a downfield threat and he was drafted for that purpose, but we don't have the ability to utilize those skills, so it's hardly his fault for not putting up Top 5 WR numbers up to this point.

    I don't think we will be able to fully judge Ginn until we have a QB that can make the throws downfield with consistency. As has been pointed out earlier in this thread and many times before, Chad just doesn't have a strong arm, he doesn't have the strength to gun it deep and he doesn't have the zip to make certain throws within his "zone". Chad is a very good game manager, he knows what he can and can't do and he doesn't force throws that he knows he can't complete. Because of that, part of our offense is going to suffer.

    I remember games 2 years ago where Ginn was open but Green didn't have the arm strength to get it to him, Lemon wasn't even looking his way or Beck was on the ground because the OL wasn't giving him time for the play to develop. Last year there were times Chad wasn't even looking in Ginn's direction because he knew he couldn't make the throw, other times Ginn was asked to make the adjustment to fit into this offense.

    Does that sound like what Fitzgerald is going through in Zona? Or Johnson is Texas? Or Boldin? Or Moss? Again, not every offense is the same, not every WR is going to have the same opportunities as others. We need to look at what Ginn is doing when given the opportunity, and thus far I'm quite pleased.
     
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  36. finsfan23

    finsfan23 New Member

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    teg ginn needs to do something already
     
  37. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    That's not a fair statement.......Ginn's numbers are his fault, if he isn't open Chad isn't gonna throw it to him. Or maybe it's the coaches fault for having him run the wrong routes :wink2: Everybody's fault but his. I can't believe we can even muster 1 win with Noodle Arm Pennington :no::shifty::wink2:

    What really counts is the TD production and only getting 4 on a team with receivers like we got in 2 years is weak at best.
     
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What, do you want us to have all our receivers running shallow routes? Seriously, you've got to have someone going long to suck the defense back a bit, so that Cam and Bess can have some room to work underneath. Ginn was open a good number of times, but Pennington knew he didn't have the arm strength to get it downfield to him, without a defender knocking it down, or picking it. I really don't understand why people in here insist on blaming Ginn for the lack of throws that came his way...especially last season. If you really believe that Ginn was never open deep, then you must not have watched many games last year. This year, if our o-line can open some holes for Ronnie, you might, MIGHT, see DB's cheating into the box, and thereby opening it up a little more for Ginn to get separation early enough that Pennington feels comfortable throwing it. I think that Ginn's gonna do the best when White is in, cause he can throw it deep.
     
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  39. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    i couldn't have said it better myself. 2socks and I have argued about this for quite some time in another forum. I've always said the same thing you're saying in this post.
     

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