Kinda hard to argue that....but..Im sure someone will take a stab at it.

Love to see the odds if you throw in the other two blatantly wrong calls.

 

I was told there would be no math!

 

:lol:

 

I don't see that it's hard to argue against that at all.

The entire analysis is predicated on the time left in the ball game.

Let's say you're losing a game 27-21 with 1 minute left. You've gotten to a 3rd & Goal on the opposition's 1-yard line. The percentages probably say you have something like a 70 percent chance of winning (just guessing).

You run the football. You lose a yard because your tailback tripped.

Now your percentages say you only have a 30 to 40 percent chance of winning (again, just guessing).

So your chances of victory went down from 70 percent to 30 to 40 percent based on the one play, the one shoelace trip, the one yard you lost instead of gained.

Did that play lose you the football game?

Or did the 140 other plays in the game where you could have done something better that would have resulted in a better outcome lose you the football game?

Let's say the EXACT SAME THING happened to you earlier in the game, in the first quarter. You're 3rd & Goal from the 1-yard line. You lose a yard. Simply because it was the first quarter and not the fourth quarter, the change in your win probability model was likely negligible.

Yet in reality, the screwup likely cost you a touchdown all the same.

That's the major fallacy in this style of analysis.

 

Will that ref be fired? He deserves to work for McDonalds.

 

Is anyone, CK included, arguing that the fumble wasn't a big play?

I think everyone agrees it was a big play. The argument is whether it was a conspiracy type call or not. Based on the rule as written, it was probably the right call. That doesn't make the rule or the penalty associated with it any less horrible, but there isn't anything we can do about it

 

Not only big but the wrong call too Section....Sad part about it is watching it we were saying "The bailout is coming at some point in this game"...

It is Foxboro, it always does come...

 

How quickly people forget that a week ago the Patriots lost a game in overtime based on a penalty that had quite literally never been called in the NFL before that final long field goal the Jets attempted (and missed) in overtime.

Guess someone forgot to request a bailout for that game.

 

You cant prove definitively that OV wasnt trying to possess that ball....

Ask yourself.....I did....

"Was he trying to tap that ball backwards?" And I answered "yeah I can see that"

then ask.....

"Was he trying to possess the football?" And I answered "yeah I can see that"

 

It was made up to them yesterday.....

 

Forget about it? I think most people look at that and now see why they got the calls that they did yesterday.

 

I have a pretty strong feeling that if the call had gone against the Patriots right now there would be an entire wagon load of people defending it as the Patriots player clearly trying to bat the football away from a Dolphins offensive player who was trying to recover it.

 

The end result of what you're saying is that no play matters.

 

He also had someone on top of him pushing him down and stopping his momentum going forward which easily explains why his grab for the ball came up short and resulted in the ball being unintentionally advanced

 

Or just gaining enough yards to kick a long field goal, which means Miami would have to punch the ball into the end zone to win the game. That would the same offense that in the previous two games found themselves at midfield needing 15 to 20 yards just to give their kicker a chance at winning the game with a FIELD GOAL, now needing a go-ahead touchdown in order to not lose the game.

Suffice it to say, I think there are several things the math model doesn't necessarily take account of.

 

I wouldn't, I call it as I see it.....I would without a doubt be happy Miami got over as I am sure the Pats fans are...but I would say it was the right or wrong call....

 

Seeing as there was nothing clear about the play I have a feeling that most people will call bull**** on that.

 

Or that no single play matters on it's own. It's the culmination of it.

I think the worst call was the one upstairs. To abandon the run in the 2nd half.

 

I'm not sure where these win probabilities are coming from. With 9 min left, NE had 92% chance of winning:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201310270nwe.htm

 

I agree with you, which is exactly why the call should be reviewable and the penalty structure for a violation of the rule should be changed. but given what the Ref saw in real time I can understand the call, even if I don't agree with it

 

I believe Olivier Vernon committed a costly penalty. That is true. It was dumb, on his part.

Your models overstate the costliness of the result of plays because they're predicated on the time left in the game. Blown plays early in a game can impact the game just as much as blown plays late. Sometimes, even more so.

The Dolphins did not lose the game based on a penalty. The offense failed to score a single point in the second half of the game. There's no mention of that in all this complaining about the officiating. There's no mention of the fact that the Patriots gained 72 non-penalty yards on that 82 yard touchdown drive. There's no mention any number of things that could easily have won Miami the game. Everything is just focued on the officiating.

And I think that's pretty weak.

 

It wasn't the entire game, but it was a huge call, and the third bad call of the game.

If the call stands, they get 3, or even no points instead of 7.

 

Except that isn't true.

One play can be the only TD in a 7-0 game. This is an absurd argument. The game plays out the way the game plays out. No team plays a game perfectly or completely ineptly. Teams rarely blow out other teams and most games are close and are decided by by a handful of plays. That's the norm and its all well and good. The Buffalo game was lost by our players. There were a few plays that can easily be pointed to (like the Tannehill fumble in the end) that changed the probable outcome of the game.

Again, this all well and valid. The problem comes when the refs are the reason for those plays and they were numerous times yesterday. To say otherwise is either false bravado or agenda driven rhetoric.

 

Sure you can, if you completely ignore the actual rule and use your imagination to blame OV.

 

The fact this statement above is even up for debate is arguably worse than the call itself

 

The only argument that is absurd is yours.

So the previous and subsequent 40-50 offensive plays that led to 3 and outs, punts and turnovers don't matter? See how that works. Lose 7-0 and you want to focus on that one touchdown, and not the offensive futility of the losing team for 60 minutes. Some plays are more significant than others. But it's never one play.

 

I think it even took them out of FG range no?

 

Your ridiculous argument only exists in a world where perfect play is the norm...and its not the norm.

It is impossible for one team to be perfect on every play. That's the end result you're arguing for. Every offensive play must go for a TD or you can't blame any given play or plays on why you lost. That is the very definition of absurd.

Since its not possible, your argument is not valid.

 

It mattered. The turnovers that led up to it also matter.

Also, it's dicey to compare a 100-possession sport to a 12-possession sport. In a 100-possession sport, early mistakes don't matter as much. You're going to get 80 more possessions to rectify the mistake. In a 12-possession sport, early mistakes matter. Late mistakes matter. All mistakes matter. The mistakes that happen toward the end matter, probably a little bit more than the ones that happened early, but not a whole lot more. Not like in basketball.

 

I have a bad habit of deleting games after a loss. Where was the ball recovered?

 

You are miles away from the original argument. But that's par for your course.

Nobody has even talked about being perfect. We're talking about plays that matter. And last I checked, you gotta play all 6o minutes.