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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, May 7, 2020.
Might have to take a drive up to Jacksonville to take my dad to that game!
I honestly see 8 -10 wins for a productive Dolphins team there (IF we're a productive team)....lots of weaker franchises. We may well start 0-2 though, we'll have to see how fast NE gets back up to speed with an overhauled roster. I'd love to get that week 1 win on the road in NE since that would be back to back defeats up there (which hasn't happened in well over a decade!).
Realistically, maybe 6 or 7 wins? Hard to predict the Jets games but I'm guessing we'll sweep those. Jax and Arizona are winnable, then we have both LA teams at home. We should beat the Bengals and the Raiders as well. Our Vegas over/under opening line is 6.5 and I think that's almost dead-on....I'd have to take the over though.
I'm THRILLED that they're not planning on delaying and it looks like we have a full season....hopefully training camp can start soon!
I see us splitting with New England...we'll win the December home game. History is on our side for that game.
I see us sweeping the Jets.
I see us getting swept by Buffalo however, especially the January game. FRIGID in buffalo in January.
Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Las Vegas, LA Chargers...we should win those games.
LA Rams...maybe...maybe not
Seattle, Kansas City and San Francisco...I don't think so, for obvious reasons. They're all just too good.
Arizona and Denver...sadly I think we'll lose those as well based on Miami's poor history going west.
8-8 or 7-9 at worst.
At San Francisco is probably the second least winnable game on the schedule.
That's true, I wasn't thinking about Jimmy G being back....they're a different team without him. That likely is a loss.
Bold prediction ... the schedule doesn't play out like this at all. Ok, maybe not that bold.
But based on that schedule, those west coast trips are always rough. I really dislike having to go way out west to face LV and then having to come back to play Buff in Buff. SF is a loss, and the Cardinals aren't a joke, Murray and Hopkins will be dynamite.
Some big if's, but I can see us being 4-0 to be frank. NE with essentially a rookie QB after the losses they suffered defensively? Good matchup for week 1. Buff at home week 2 is winnable, especially if Allen and Diggs aren't on the same page yet. Jags are Losing for Lawrence. Seattle will be a good team, but those west to east coast trips are no joke.
Assuming a normal schedule with some fans in attendance, I can see us anywhere between 10 wins all the way down to 5 depending on breaks. Realistically ... probably 7-8 win range.
I see 16-0.
I'll be surprised if the NFL doesn't have to go back to the drawing board and change the schedule due to CORVID-19 concerns. It's not a bad schedule for Miami though. A winnable game to start, and the back half should have a lot of winnable games. The week 11 bye is a bit later than I'd prefer, but it usually comes too early, so this is still better.
With all the roster changes, it's critical that the Phins have a full training camp -but I doubt that too. The teams with the least amount of change will have a slight advantage this season. I expect to see a much improved team over the second half of the schedule though, as the OL gels and maybe we can get Tua in to start some games after the bye?
1. @ NE - W
2. vs. BUF - W
3. @ JAC - W
4. vs. SEA - L
5. @ SF - L
6. @ DEN - W
7. vs. LAC - W
8. vs. LAR - L
9. @ ARI - L
10. vs. NYJ - W
12. @ NYJ - W
13. vs. CIN - W
14. vs. KC - L
15. vs. NE - W
16. @ LV - L
17. @ BUF - L
Can't shake the gut feeling that Miami--either on the back of a healthy Tua or a surging Fitz--sneaks into the playoffs as the seventh seed. This defense is going to give a lot of teams problems.
I reckon we start slow. Almost 50% turnover on the 53 man squad is going to mean it's going to take a while to gel. However, I will go for us finishing strongly, something like 5-1 or 4-2 including a surprise win in a freezing cold Buffalo which results in the expectations starting to grow for next season.
Edit: Looking at the schedule, where do people see the opportunity for Tua to take the start job if he does?
Not going to say which I think we will win or lose, but I came away with 8 wins as a baseline for this team.
More than that would be a fantastic season. Less than that wouldnt be terrible because there were a few toss ups, but less than 6 would be disappointing.
I am with you on this. I see a slow start for every team, but for teams like ours who have to learn a new offensive system, I think it may take even longer for us to gel. A west coast division is tough, not going to lie. A lot of those teams are ahead of us and established, but as long as we are competitive and fight to win every game, I will be ok.
The interesting thing, to me, and perhaps more important than how we play those teams in the AFC West will be how we do in our own division? I think it all starts with that. As much as I would like to say with Brady gone, we are the top team, but I would be underestimating the Jets and Bills. They both had good drafts (especially the Jets), and their QBs have a year or so under their belt. They are up and coming teams and we are in year 1 of a rebuild. We have work to do, and our new OL (and QB) hasn't even played a game yet. Taking the division isn't going to be a cakewalk. We are going to need to battle for it, so it will be exciting to see how we do there. Those are the games I will be keeping my eye on. IMO, that will tell us a lot about Flores as our coach and if our team is heading in the right direction.
Week 13...I'm surprised nobody's focused in on that one yet.
Potential Tua vs Burrow...at The Rock! Marquee match-up for their rookie years, if Tua is starting by then, more-so if they're both doing "well." Would LOVE to see it!!
Flukey thing is (like EVERY year), some teams we think will be great, won't, and some teams we think will suck, won't. Did we catch the right ones on the schedule?
When Fitzpatrick fails to keep the team in playoff contention, and we are officially eliminated..
We might be able to win 9 games with this schedule.
I think that a lot of you guys are being overly optimistic.
The team was improving a ton week to week last season, but I think the idea of picking up where we left off is naive. Essentially, at this point, we are an expansion team. Just looking at our roster, I am thinking that we will have more new starters than returning starters probably by a pretty hefty margin. I really think that Madden has really hurt people's perception of football. You can't just say, that we got player X who is an an 87 overall, so we are good at position y. It doesn't work that way.
I think our offensive line is the most quintessential example of this. It is conceivable that we return zero starters. We will probably have three rookies on the line at some point in the season. If I were an opposing coach, I would try and confuse these guys with savvy, veteran players using exotic blitzes. It is gonna take some time for this group to come together.
Another thing we need to consider is that we are still unsure of what our strengths and weaknesses as a team are. Yes, we have some ideas, but we really do not know yet. Every year there are FA busts and draft busts that appeared like fantastic pick ups at the time. We have brought in so many FAs and draft picks, I am POSITIVE that some are just not gonna pan out. We may go into the first few weeks thinking position X is a position of strength only to find out we are getting exploited. On the other hand, we may find out that we are stronger in position y than we had anticipated. It is gonna take time for the coaches to figure this out and game plan accordingly. A lot of our successes last year was playing to our strengths and trying to cover up our warts - expect more this to come.
Another thought that I had on the schedule is that I think the NFL gave us a gift with a NE away opener. I think we can steal that game. No NE cold weather game - check. Stidham's first start - check. Most of what I just typed out about the Dolphins holds true to the Patriots except I think that we have more in terms of talent. I cannot wait to see how many times Flores blitzes Stidham. I think having Fitzmagic in a shortened offseason over Stidham is a huge advantage. I also think that the Patriots traditionally start slowly as they like to experiment early on in the season. For whatever reason, the Pats have struggled coming to Miami even in some of our most dismal of seasons. I really think we could "shock" a lot of people and sweep the Pats.
I think Tua watch will begin around week 9. Once we are past the Bosa brothers, Denver's scary front seven, and Donald, it seems like we are taking a lot of risk off the table. Additionally, I think that would give the line ample time to come together and the coaching staff to get a good feel for what they are looking at.
Don’t play tUa this year my lord that’s a rough schedule for us. I’m not sure we’re going to have 6 wins...
I dont think you are going to see many complex defenses early on if there isnt a legitimate offseason/preseason program for the players. The risk of busted coverages is going to be through the roof.
I wasnt going to list them but here are the games I think we have a shot to take on paper, even if we arent favorites.
We have a chance in both NE games and both Jets games IMO. I think we will sweep one of the two and split with the other while being swept by Buffalo. So that would put us at 3-3 in the division.
Aside from that I believe we have a shot in the following games:
Denver, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Arizona, San Diego, Las Vegas.
That is how I came to a potential of 8 wins, with a more realistic hope for 6. Though that is 9 potential wins I just docked one from the total because I feel like 9 would be expecting us to be perfect in those games.
I totally agree on your Jets and Pats theory. I think the Patriots' cupboard is more empty than people realize. I feel like I was the captain of the "Fire Gase Brigade" on this site. I honestly do not see him as an NFL head coach.
I think Denver and LV are gonna be better than you expect.
I think Jacksonville is tanking and Cincy is bad.
Zona and the Chargers could go either way - I see them as mystery teams.
As much as I dislike them, I do think the Bills are putting together a really strong team that is well built.
I think some are being overly optimistic and I think some are being overly pessimistic. Bottom line is Miami HAS to win all of the games it SHOULD win. Those games include...
They HAVE to win those but as I stated earlier, due to Miami’s poor history of going west, there’s some we probably won’t...but there’s no reason why we can’t
Additionally, there a couple of games we NEED to win. At least 1 against New England, 1 against Buffalo and one against either Seattle, San Francisco or Kansas City.
It’s not realistic but there’s really no reason why we can’t actually win 11.
Sadly though I know we’re going to fall short. Anything less than a .500 seaside going to be a disappointment for me
The thing is, we're probably a 3-win team TODAY. Our corners will steal a few wins but otherwise, we have a huge group of youngsters who have never played together before. The line is almost 100% new, so Fitz will have to adjust on the fly as they get their game together. Our receivers and linebackers are the only two groups that are returning largely unchanged, so anything past the Jets games and maybe Jacksonville is going to be an uphill battle. It really all comes down to training camp and how quickly everyone can come together.
These are all guesses at this point based on the schedule and we're lucky it's favorable this season, but we will lose several "can't lose" games as the team rebuilds. For me, the baseline would be 7 wins....two better than last season and 1/2 game better than Vegas predicts. If we win 7, I'm content with the direction our team is headed. I could absolutely see more if everything falls into place, but I could also see a 3-4 win season if the line struggles on both sides of the ball.
*Anxiously waits for the August prediction thread where some people say Miami can win 12 games and make a Super Bowl run*
You mention Fitzpatrick and he is going to be key, not so much his “play” but his experience. It’s going to be crucial for this veteran to step way up and be the leader and mentor on the field that these youngsters are going to need.
Just because he’s a mediocre quarterback doesn’t mean he can’t provide that leadership on the field and that’s what these guys are going to need
I personally think Fitzpatrick is a superstar in terms of leadership and he was probably the perfect guy to bring in for this situation. We could have a better QB in someone like Cam Newton but it's just not the same type of fit to help our rookies grow. I am a mega-fan of Fitzpatrick after last season since he put in hundreds of extra hours training our young guys and just being a great professional. That NE win was simply the icing on the cake for me to put the guy in legendary status.
Every win is squarely on his shoulders this coming season and he honestly loves it- he said several times last season it was the first time in decades that football didn't feel like work since he was having so much fun being a mentor and a leader. I just love the heck out of the guy and wish him nothing but good fortune once he hangs up the cleats in a year or two.
I'm really, really hoping he's around to get a ring with us...maybe that's forward thinking but I don't think we're too far off.
Fitzmagic is worth 4-5 wins a season by itself. I said that before last year, and even with that expansion team roster we got 5 wins. With a better roster around him, I think 6-7 wins is the floor. With the right breaks and and the OL coming together quickly, 9-10 wins is possible and a good shot at the last wild card spot.
They kinda blew that myth out of the water in 2016 when they had back-to-back games at SD and Rams, and won both.
Then again in 2017 at the Chargers and won again.
3-0 on west coast games since 2016...not bad.
I think a lot of our fate is dependent upon our defense. I would assume that getting Noah I. was at least partially due to his ability to play man-to-man coverage. I think that having our defense play a ton of man coverage will be beneficial especially in a virtual/condensed training camp. This will help the coaching staff because much more of their focus for the defensive backs will be technique as opposed to scheme. This really helps because you can essentially learn on the fly, and players are always looking to improve on technique anyway. So if you combine Noah and B. Jones, you are not really asking them to do anything that is overly complicated.
If you look at our front seven, it is actually a pretty nice mixture of veterans and younger players. I really do not foresee any of our defensive free agents being "lost," and if they are, we have enough hold overs from last year to assume starting roles if need be; although, I find this to be highly unlikely. My only concern is that I am not totally convinced that we have a true pass rusher on our team. I know Lawson is really supposed to be the guy, but I am not sold quite yet. You could argue that he is an ascending player or you could argue that he did well in a contract year - beware! I do think we are rich with options at the edge position, and I hope that someone emerges, but this is by no means a foregone conclusion.
Our offensive line really does scare me. With all of the potential rookies starting, I do not think it is at all out of the question that this group could be lost. I'm not gonna lie, I would go try and sign Larry Warford. I literally do not even care that we drafted all of these prospects on the line. If it involves Tua staying healthy, it is a good investment. The younger guys can wait.
IMO we've improved every level of the defense as well as the OL and run game. And that's just with vets before counting on any rookies to contribute. And several of those vets will already be familiar with our systems. I think that alone will keep us in a vast majority of games. So I don't know what "overly optimistic" means. I personally think we're looking at 7-9 wins. I see that as realistic.
No. The best thing for the safety of Tua going into 2021 is to have a young OL that has learned to work together and gotten the rookie mistakes of 2020 out of the way. We don't have to play Tua this season. We have Fitzmagic and then Rosen if necessary to take lumps behind a rookie OL.
Warford would be a good signing for a team ready to win now and needing another piece or two. We'll have a good and cheap OL for several years if the plan works, so don't bail on it now by signing an expensive vet.
6-10 at the worst, 8-8 at the best if Fitz starts every game. If Tua starts...don't know.
I'd say between 5-8 wins is a very realistic expectation, especially with their schedule.
If Tua is 100% it should make no difference to his health whether he takes hits or not. If hes that fragile he will break eventually regardless of when he plays.
I want him to sit, but it has nothing to do with health. He cant heal beyond 100% and will be hit at some point regardless.
I went a run last night, and I was kinda thinking about this very issue. I think that the general attitude of any new player that we sign is that the player is good or will eventually be good probably because we want this to be true. But look no further than our last two first round defensive ends - Dion Jordan and Charles Harris. I swear that to this day, someone will show a GIF of Dion Jordan covering Gronk for one play and claim that he is a solid player, and we should give him a 75th chance. But here is a little dose of reality, these guys were never good once they entered the league. Two first round picks amounted to 6.5 sacks - absolutely dreadful. In both of these cases, it is clear that we held on for too long. What eventually happens is that people fall in love with a draft position and convince themselves, despite overwhelming facts to the contrary, that if x,y, or z would happen, this player would break out.
I would argue that the mentality of this board should actually be the opposite. Assume that none of these rookies are good. Only start to believe that they are good once they start showing consistent, strong performances in games or practices. Keep it in the back of your mind that although you drafted or acquired a young player, it does not mean that the position has been properly addressed. Putting him out there and hoping for a miracle is not what winning teams do. I thought we should have gotten rid of Harris last year. I saw Harris get physically dominated so many times that I was positive that he was not going to be the answer, but he was starting games. I promise you that he was a 5th round draft pick, he would have been gone years ago.
Let's take a look at what we have done at offensive line this offseason-
Flowers - A first round bust who reinvented his career as a guard for the final half of a season
Karras - A guy who was not good enough to get a big deal and wound up signing a prove it deal
Jackson - First round pick
Hunt - Second Round pick
Kindley - Fourth round pick
That is five linemen that are essentially expect to start or start fairly soon. Honest question. How many of these guys do you think will not pan out? I have been a Phins fan for years. I cannot remember a year when it felt like all of our draft picks/free agents hit. Historically, our drafts have been a mixed bag, and free agency has not really worked for us. I think the best case scenario is that we hit on 4/5 of these guys and the worst case scenario is that 2/5 emerge as starters.
In my mind, I am not convinced that any of these guys are good. That being said, I am convinced that Warford is great. $7 mil per season does not seem crazy to me either. I am not falling in love with guys that have never played a down in the NFL or that have had limited success.
@ NE WIN 1 (sweep)
Vs BUF - Loss 1
@ JAC - WIN 2
vs SEA - Loss 2
@ SF - Loss 3
@ DEN - WIN 3
vs LAC - WIN 4
vs LAR - Loss 4
@ ARI - WIN 5
vs NYJ - WIN 6 (sweep)
@NYJ - WIN 7 (sweep)
Vs CIN - WIN 8
vs KC - Loss 5
vs NE - WIN 9 (sweep)
@LV - Loss 6
@ BUF - Loss 7
9-7 is what I'm going with.
I think we're underrated with all our new FA talent as well as well as Draft picks and trades. It's mostly up to what the O-Line does.