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The Objective Case for Jeff Ireland

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Fineas, Sep 3, 2012.

  1. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Jeff Ireland has been among the most polarizing in a long list of polarizing figures for the Dolphins over the years – Wannstedt, Cameron, Saban, Henne, Ginn, Fiedler, etc. He is quite literally hated by many Dolphin fans and their contempt for him may make it impossible for those people to consider the job he has done in an objective way. But I love a challenge, so I will tilt at that windmill in a quixotic attempt to show that, objectively speaking, Jeff Ireland has done a pretty good job. The problem has been that finding objective measures of GM performance is not easy and, even more importantly, the critics seem wholly unwilling to even try to compare his performance with other GMs. It is like baseball fans who would complain that Ted Williams was a lousy hitter because he got out almost two-thirds of the time and then use individual at bats or strikeouts to point out how bad he was. Now, I am not suggesting that Jeff Ireland is anywhere near as good a GM as Ted Williams was a hitter, just that both Ireland and Williams work(ed) in a field in which failure is the norm and where one can only be considered a failure if one fails more than ones peers.

    I started this in another thread but have finished the basic research in an attempt to objectively evaluate the job Jeff Ireland has done since he has been in Miami. While he has not had final say his entire time here and there are varying reports as to which picks were his or Parcells, I’m not sure which or how much of those reports I believe. For purposes of this evaluation, I am looking at the Dolphins’ draft history from 2008 through 2011. Because the 2012 draftees have not yet played a down, there is no objective or empirical data for them, so the 2012 draft is not really a part of this.

    Pro-football-reference.com has a summary stat called Approximate Value, which they show on their site as CarAV (Career Approximate Value). The stat is described in excruciating detail here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?page_id=518. This stat attempts to put a value on every player, regardless of position. While one can argue the merits of the methodology, it is at least objective in the sense that in no way can it be argued that PFR has tweaked this stat in order to either paint Ireland in a positive light or a more negative one.

    Since Ireland has been here (2008 to the present), his drafts have produced players with a total CarAV of 198. Here is how Ireland's drafts stack up against the other 31 teams over that same time period:

    1. Falcons -- 243
    2. Eagles -- 227
    3. Packers – 226
    4. KC – 224
    5. Denver – 222
    6. Detroit – 219
    7. Titans -- 217
    8. Patriots -- 205
    9. Dolphins/Ireland -- 198
    10. Ravens – 198
    11. Houston -- 188
    12. Carolina -- 185
    13. Arizona – 184
    14. Seattle – 181
    15. Cincy – 179
    16. Indy – 178
    17. Oakland -- 171
    18. Rams – 165
    19. TB -- 164
    20. Bills – 160
    21. Chicago – 155
    22. Jax -- 153
    23. Dallas – 151
    24. SF – 151
    25. NO – 224
    26. Giants -- 140
    27. Steelers – 138
    28. Vikings – 134
    29. Washington -- 129
    30. Cleveland -- 126
    31. NYJ – 119
    32. SD -- 102


    As indicated, the Dolphins under Ireland have the 9th highest total CarAV (tied with Baltimore) since 2008, which puts them in the top third of the league. These figures are only for drafted players so undrafted acquisitions like Cameron Wake (CarAV of 22) and Davone Bess (CarAV of 22) are not included, nor are players acquired via trade.

    Not every team has the same amount of draft “currency” to deal with. It is easier to hit on players if you have more picks or higher picks. So I wanted to compare draft results by taking into account how much draft currency the teams had to work with. For this, I used the draft trade value charts to give an indication of the value of each pick in terms of this currency. There are different versions of the trade value chart around and for this exercise I used this one: http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php. The usefulness or accuracy of this chart is questionable in my opinion, as it tends to overvalue the very top picks, but it has nonetheless become a pretty well accepted tool for valuing draft picks.

    Due to time limitations and some degree of laziness, I only did the draft currency analysis for the top 10 teams on the list above, plus the Giants and Steelers, two teams that did not do that well in the CarAV analysis but which are often discussed as among the top personnel departments in the NFL. Mostly, I just wanted to see if Ireland’s pretty solid showing in the CarAV analysis was due to having much more draft currency than the other teams.

    Adding up the draft trade chart value for all of the Dolphins picks from 2008-2011 gives a total of 8319.5 units/points. Since I am referring to it as currency, I will use the $ as the symbol and to make the math easier, I will look at CarAV per 1000 units of draft currency, or CarAV/$1000 to see which teams got the highest return on their draft currency investment. $1000 is equivalent to the 16th pick in the first round.

    1. Eagles – 36.48 CarAV per $1000 (227 CarAV/$6222.6)
    2. Packers – 36.3 CarAV per $1000 (226 CarAV/$6226.9)
    3. Ravens – 34.8 CarAV per $1000 (198 CarAV/$5675.6)
    4. Titans – 33.38 CarAV per $1000 (217 CarAV/6499.7)
    5. Falcons – 28.19 CarAV per $1000 (243 CarAV/$8623.4)
    6. Steelers – 26.40 CarAV per $1000 (138 CarAV/$5226.4)
    7. Dolphins/Ireland – 23.79 CarAV per $1000 (198 CarAV/$8319.5)
    8. Patriots – 23.51 CarAV per $1000 (205 CarAv/$8719)
    9. Giants – 22.63 CarAV per $1000 (140 CarAV/$6186.4)
    10. Chiefs – 19.67 CarAV per $1000 (224 CarAV/$11386.5)
    11. Broncos – 19.05 CarAV per $1000 (222 CarAV/$11654.9)
    12. Lions – 17.59 CarAV per $1000 (219 CarAV/$12446.4)

    Accounting for the amount of draft currency used does have a significant impact on the analysis for some teams, but not so much for Ireland. The $8319.50 in draft currency (as defined herein) is about average. Some teams that had a hgiher CarAV over the 2008-2011 time period did so because they had a lot more draft currency to work with, e.g., Chiefs, Broncos and Lions. Others that had less CarAv than Ireland overtook him when their relatively low amounts of draft currency are taken into account. Nonetheless, Ireland’s draft performance remains in the top tier among NFL teams. The teams that come out ahead in the CarAV per $1000 of draft currency pretty well match the teams considered to have top front offices – Eagles, Packers, Ravens, Falcons and Steelers. The Titans may be a surprise to some, but their high CarAV is boosted significantly by Chris Johnson. Of course, several of these teams’ draft performance is boosted significantly by one or two picks over this 4 year period, e.g., Rice and Flacco for the Ravens, Ryan for the Falcons, McCoy and Jackson for the Eagles, etc.

    The results of this “macro-economic” analysis are borne out by a closer examination of the top teams’ draft performance. Every team has its busts, including first and second round busts. For example:

    Packers

    Derek Sherrod (OT, 2011) -- 1st round pick who didn't start a game and played in only 5.
    Randall Cobb (WR, 2011) -- 2nd round pick who didn't start a game and caught only 25 passes.
    Alex Green (RB, 2011) -- 3rd round pick who rushed for 11 yards on a team looking for a running game.
    Mike Neal (DE, 2010) -- 2nd round pick with 5 tackles and 1 sack in 2 seasons.
    Brian Brohm (QB, 2008) -- 2nd round pick cut in camp.


    Steelers

    Cameron Heyward (DE, 2011) -- 1st round pick who didn't start a game as a rookie. 11 total tackles.
    Curtis Brown (DB, 2011) -- 3rd round pick with no starts and virtually no contribution.
    Jason Worilds (LB, 2010) -- 2nd round pick with 27 tackles and 5 sacks in 2 seasons.
    Kraig Urbik (OT, 2009) -- 3rd round pick who was inactive as a rookie and waived in camp the next season.
    Limas Sweed (WR, 2008) -- 2nd round pick with 7 career receptions. Out of football for a few years already.


    Ravens

    Sergio Kindle (DE/LB, 2010) -- 2nd round pick who has generally been inactive, with no stats in 2 seasons.
    Paul Kruger (DE, 2009) -- 2nd round pick with 19 tackles in 3 seasons.


    Giants

    Prince Amukamara (CB, 2011) -- 1st round pick who played just 144 stats and gave up a 122.8 passer rating when thrown at.
    Marvin Austin (DT, 2011) -- 2nd round pick who spent 2011 on IR and appears to be hurt again this year.
    Jerrel Jernigan (WR, 2011) -- 3rd round pick with no catches as a rookie.
    Chad Jones (DB, 2010) -- 3rd round pick with no NFL stats. No longer on team.
    Clint Sintim (LB, 2009) -- 2nd round pick with 11 tackles and 1 sack in 3 seasons.


    Falcons

    Akeem Dent (LB, 2011) – 3rd round pick who had 1 solo tackle as a rookie.
    Mike Johnson (G, 2010) – 3rd round pick who hasn’t started a game in 2 seasons.
    Peria Jerry (DT, 2009) – 1st round pick who has just 6 starts and 20 tackles in 3 seasons.
    Christopher Owens (DB, 2009) – 3rd round pick with just 10 starts and 10 passes defensed in 3 seasons.
    Chevis Jackson (DB, 2008) – 3rd round pick with just 3 starts and 7 passes defensed in 4 seasons.

    People often seem to fail to put Ireland’s busts into perspective as compared to other GMs, including the most highly-reputed ones. Henne wasn't a huge success, but he was waayyyy better than Brian Brohm who GB took a pick before Henne and he was much better then Kevin O'Connell, who the Pats took a round later.

    Pat White didn't do anything for us, but Clint Sintim and Paul Kruger, who the Giants and Ravens took in the 2nd that year, haven't done much more.

    Patrick Turner was a bust, but not really any moreso than Rameses Barden (who the Giants took 2 picks earlier) or Brandon Tate (who the Pats took 4 picks earlier) or Derrick Williams (who the Lions took 5 picks earlier). And Limas Sweed, Malcolm Kelly and James Hardy were picked a round earlier the year before and were no better.

    Shawn Murphy was a bust but not really any more of one than Marcus Smith (taken 4 picks earlier by Baltimore) or Jeremy Thompson (taken 8 picks earlier by GB) or Bruce Davis (taken 22 picks earlier by Pitt).

    In recent years, one of the knocks has been that Ireland couldn’t find a QB or that he somehow didn’t value the position. It’s still early, but there are encouraging signs that he has now found a potential franchise QB. It took 4 years, but let’s take a closer look at the QB decisions that were made since Ireland got here. He inherited a team with John Beck as the apparent QB of the future. Some may chuckle at that, but there were plenty of people here who thought Beck would be that and that they shouldn’t take a QB in the 2008 draft. In retrospect, it is hard to say Ireland/Parcells erred in concluding that Beck would not be the guy. In the draft, they took the best player at No. 1 and that guy has gone to 4 consecutive Pro Bowls. In the second round, they chose Henne. Say what you will about Henne, but he has been much better than GB’s second round QB selection in that draft (Brohm) and better than the guy the Pats took a round later. Ireland ended up picking up Chad Pennington, who had a near MVP season and helped the team go from 1-15 to 11-5. Pennington got hurt 3 games into the 2009 season and Henne came in. He played reasonably well for a guy getting his first NFL action and nobody was suggesting the Dolphins take a QB early in the 2010 draft. And, of course, there wasn’t a QB worth taking – the options were Tim Tebow, Jimmy Claussen and Colt McCoy. Is anyone going to seriously argue that the Dolphins should have used a high pick on one of those guys? Henne plateaued in 2010 and taking a QB in early in the 2011 draft was a definite option. Indeed, by all accounts the Dolphins had serious interest in several of the top QBs in that draft. But they were taken before the Dolphins pick and the Dolphins had no second round pick to move up with. There was a hue and cry around these parts (but nowhere else as far as I can tell) over the Dolphins passing on Ryan Mallett in the 1st round, but he lasted till the 3rd round. He was 3rd string behind UDFA Brian Hoyer last year and narrowly beat out Hoyer for the backup job this preseason (with a preseason completion percentage of 49.2 and a ypa of just 4.47, with no completions beyond 10 yards past the LOS). Andy Dalton was an option, but most around here scoffed at the notion that he was even a 2nd or 3rd round talent. He had a nice rookie year, but is he a franchise QB? So the Dolphins passed on the QBs in the draft, brought in Pat Devlin as a UDFA (who has looked better than Mallett in his preseason playing time) and signed Matt Moore, who ended up as the Dolphins’ 2011 MVP. If Tannehill realizes the promise he has shown so far, it could be fairly said that Ireland made the best QB decision in 4 of the last 5 seasons.

    The team Ireland inherited in 2008 was coming off a 1-15 season. It has been 31-33 since, averaging just under 8 wins a game. It has done that with some highly questionable coaching and mediocre (at best) play at QB (despite Henne still probably being the best choice of a poor group at the time). Ireland’s critics often point to the team’s record as compared to the top teams with the supposedly top front offices. But those top teams have had elite QBs and top head coaches. Does anyone seriously contend that the combo of Brady and Belichick isn’t worth 4-5 more wins per year than Henne and Sparano? Does anyone really believe that the combo of Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy isn’t worth 4 more wins per year than Henne and Sparano? Or Brees and Payton? Or Roethlisberger and Tomlin?

    And if Ireland should be replaced, who should he be replaced with? Virtually all of the names bandied about are guys with no track record at all of making draft decisions. And that is the job (at least with regard to the draft). The young up-and-comers seem bright and shiny because they have no track record. If they did, or if they were held accountable for their teams’ draft, they would seem a lot less shiny. Of course, we don’t know what role, if any, they had in those teams’ good picks or their bad picks. Over a four year period, the difference between a good draft record and a bad one may come down to just one or two players. Unless we know that these assistant GMs or VPs of player personnel would have taken the same guys in the same spots if they were in charge, their presence in the room when those picks were made means virtually nothing.
     
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  2. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    All teams have busts , it is ok to miss , but has Miami hit well enough compared to the top franchises? You can have a 300 hitter but his value isn't the same as a 300 hitter that has twice as many rbi's , 3 times the hr's and gets more hits at critical times.

    If you miss on the players you mentioned for say the Steelers but hit on Wallace and Brown , it isn't the same as hitting on Hartline for example. Ireland may not be terrible but instead of that detailed methodology can we name 4 players that exploded way beyond their draft status? Can we name 3? Can we name 2?

    For me , I would not fire him during the season , no point , but if at the end of this season we can't find the success from all the draft classes , I would make the change heading into a year with the assets we have in the upcoming draft. Thanks for the detailed effort.
     
  3. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I get what your saying, but who do you prefer to blame for this team sucking ***?
     
  4. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Also, if you don't like the methodology, do something yourself. Just compare the picks side by side.

    You can't sit down an objectively say that Ireland(or Ireland+Parcells if you prefer) has done a bad job. They haven't done a great job, and there are some elements and methodologies they need to change, but we're by far and away better than average in that regard.
     
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  5. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    Another Fineas manifesto. :up:
     
  6. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Think about it rationally and in the context of what you've seen and don't try to find a scapegoat?

    Pretty much the single season that anyone has to answer for is last year, and that's really down to a question of why the team started so poorly.
     
  7. shouright

    shouright Banned

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    You have to have someone, right?

    We need a scapegoat! ;)
     
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  8. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Fact is you can throw any stat out there, but ironically in the words of his predecessor..."You are what your record says you are" and there isn't much reason to assume things are changing.
     
  9. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    So basically what you are saying is that Ireland has done a great job as the GM and the fact that the team has been a combined 31-33 since 2008, was entirely the fault of the bad coaching by Sparano and his coaching staff. Well, Sparano is no longer with the Dolphins, so he can't take the blame for what happens this season.

    The Jets have been in the AFC championship game twice in the last three years, yet according to your calculations, they have done a terrible job selecting in the draft. That must make Rex Ryan one of the best coaches in NFL history. You can use charts and statistical analysis to show whatever you want, positive or negative. The fact is that the Dolphins are a sub 500 team since Ireland became the teams GM.
    He has this year to show that he is as good as you seem to think he is. If the Dolphins once again finish below 500 this season, no charts or statistical analysis should convince Ross to retain Ireland.
     
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  10. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Things will change If Tannehill plays well.
     
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  11. Killer Bees

    Killer Bees Bringin' the Ruckus

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    Nice work, that was an interesting read. :up:
     
  12. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    To be clear, this methodology is not just counting up hits and misses it is evaluating all of the picks and measuring how well they have done overall. To continue with the baseball analogy, this isn't just, hits or BA or even RBI, but something more akin to slugging percentage.

    You want 4 players in 4 drafts that exploded well beyond their draft status? That request illustrates the point I am tryign to make. That is an entirely unrealistic expectation. Can you name any team in the NFL that had drafted 4 such players in this 4 year period? I can tell you right now that you can't. Even two is asking a lot. Although he was undrafted, I'd say Bess has done well beyond what could have been expected. Same for Cam Wake, who although not drafted by the Dolphins, was available to every team in the NFL and the dolphins were the ones that got him.
     
  13. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I like Tannehill but not sure he can turn this roster into anything resembling a contender. Hopefully we do what most teams do and surround your franchise QB with weapons.
     
  14. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think he said that anywhere.

    And *****ing about 31-33 is a little bit misplaced given the context. The first three years were pretty good, given the start. Last season was not, but again, the start to the season was the big problem. Why did that occur?

    The Jets started off with a much higher talent base than the Dolphins did.

    Also if you can use charts or statistical analysis to show whatever you want, by all means do something similar but opposite in tone to this.
     
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  15. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    No. The team was what it's record said it was. But the entire team's performance doesn't fall on Ireland. To use the old Parcells analogy, he buys the groceries, but he's not the one that prepares the food. If the chef/coach decides not to use the filet mignon (e.g., Wake his first year here), doesn't use the proper techniques to bring out the best in the ingredients and haphazardly throws them together with little thought, the meal won't be very good. Here, over the 4 year period, the meal has been almost exactly average. It has managed to do be that "good" with the two most important pieces (Sparano and Henne) being below average.
     
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  16. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    The young up-and-comers are shiny because they're associated with and have been a part of far more consistent and bigger successes than Jeff Ireland ever has. The Dolphins' average performance since Jeff Ireland took over as GM is the stuff of Eric DeCosta's nightmares.

    And, I'm sorry, but coaching is not the reason why we lack playmakers in every facet of the roster. Jeff Ireland's high floor/low ceiling philosophy is the culprit. His drafts which you laud are littered with examples: Koa Misi over Rob Gronkowski, just to toss a rarely-mentioned example out there.
     
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  17. DOLFAN91

    DOLFAN91 New Member

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    It has always been my view that a player who is labeled a project or has upside, is only as good as the coach who is coaching him. Those players who are labeled Can't Miss or Pro Bowl Potential are the players who have a god given talent and would succeed under most circumstances!!! This is the most in depth proof of how Ireland has drafted since he was hired by BP. Although, this analysis does not divide or separate Parcells from Ireland, I suspect Ireland's ratio or average would show marked improvement over what the Team is currently running since 2008. I wonder how much better it be, if you took into consideration all the UDFA that he's uncovered over the last 2 season?
     
  18. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree with this.

    In my viewpoint Ireland has drafted well but his picks haven't made huge impacts. If you compare his first 4 drafts with Ted Thompson's first four drafts, I believe the hits for each GM is close. The difference is the hits for Thompson are players like Nelson and Jennings.

    Ireland really needs these last two drafts too pan out.
     
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  19. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    What is the shining success that Eric Decosta has been part of? I guess he was a regional scout when they won the SB way back when, but he was hardly a major part of that. And which great Ravens picks were made because Decosta pushed for them? A GM is judged based on his decisions. Decosta has never actually made a draft decision.

    Your Misi point is ironic when lauding Decosta and the Ravens. They had a big need for a TE and drafted 2 of them (Dickson and Pitta). As I understand it, the Ravens/Decosta had a medical flag on Gronkowski and wouldn't have drafted him. As it turned out, the Pats took him a pick before the Ravens. the Ravens took Sergio Kindle. Say what you want about Koa Misi, he has been muccccchhhh better than Kindle has. Kindle has been a hideous and monstrous bust. It's particularly ironic that they had a medical flag on Gronk but then took Kindle, who had as many or more medical flags and he has been the very definition of a bust.
     
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  20. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    That good? Did I miss something?
     
  21. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Are we supposed to use the Ravens recent draft record as proof of this?
     
  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The difference in this game always comes down to QB and coaching. There are more examples that prove that, even in our recent history then prove anything else.
     
  23. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Not to mention the Ravens ongoing need for WR -PLAYMAKERS, ZOMG! - (much like ours, which wasn't really close to remedied until they got Boldin in 2010) and they took Michael Oher over both Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt. And they didn't take Clay Matthews who they could've paired with Suggs.


    So examples of even the "best" FO's missing needs/playmakers is possible to find.
     
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  24. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    And Thompson may be better, but that doesn't make Ireland bad or in need of being replaced.

    To be real about it, Nelson and Jennings have done what they have done because of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers pass offense. Let's not pretend they'd have been as productive in a Sparano/Henning offense with Chad Henne at QB. And Thompson got there when Rodgers was already there. But he apparently wasn't quite sold on Rodgers and felt they needed to use a 2nd round pick on Brian Brohm. Brohm, of course, was a massive bust. Had Rodgers not been there already, the Packers would have been playing these last 4 years with either Brohm or, more likely, Matt Flynn, who just got beaten out by a 3rd round rookie. Would the Packers have had the success they have had if they didn't already have Rodgers when Thompson got there? Highly, highly doubtful.
     
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  25. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree.

    Let's hope Ireland's Rodgers is Tannehill.
     
  26. Desides

    Desides Well-Known Member

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    Well, let's see.

    Oh, and the Ravens have made the playoffs every single year since Jeff Ireland moved in with the Dolphins in 2008, and have missed the playoffs only twice since 2003.

    I hated Sergio Kindle coming out, but Koa Misi has had the benefit of not starting off his career with a car accident.

    And let's not even pretend that the Ravens draft the same way as Jeff Ireland, which you intimate here by saying they were not going to draft Rob Gronkowski. Yes, the Ravens' drafts have been generally trench-heavy, particularly at the turn of the decade. The difference is that their picks actually succeed. Contrast 3rd round pick Marshal Yanda with 3rd round pick John Jerry, for example.

    Hell, contrast their winning with our losing.
     
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  27. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Despite their TE need that year, the Ravens/Decosta also passed on Jimmy Graham a few times.
     
  28. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    That was 2010, not 2009.
     
  29. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    You and I may not agree in regards to Ireland, but I do appreciate the fact that you accept that he has been responsible for ALL the players drafted and signed in free agency since he came here in 2008. Most people who defend Ireland, do so by stating that he can only be held accountable for the players, he has drafted and signed in free agency, since Parcells left the organization.

    Like you, I have always viewed Ireland, by the players he has drafted and signed since he became the teams GM in 2008. I don't view these players as favorably as you do, but I do thank you for at least admitting that, Ireland should be credited for the good draft picks and free agency signings, as well as all the bad picks and signings since 2008.
     
  30. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Packers made the playoffs once in Ted Thompson's first four seasons as GM. He even had the same record as Ireland.
     
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  31. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Rely if you want on the Ravens statements about how he was "instrumental" in the drafting of those players. He did not make those decisions. He may have scouted them and he may have liked them, but he didn't make them. Unless there is something to suggest he would have made those same choices, they say nothing about his decision-making, which is what the job is all about.


    And they have had better "legacy" players (e.g., Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, etc.), better coaching and a better QB. Or are you seriously suggesting that the reason the Ravens have been better than the Dolphins is because of Eric Decosta himself?





    I don't think he started his career with a car accident. From what I understand, his post-draft injury was caused because he fell down the stairs. He did have some car problems, including a few DUIs, which only illustrate further how bad a pick he was.


    Are you suggesting the Ravens have never missed on a 3rd round OL? That is funny. What has Jah Reid (3rd round pick in 2011) done? Nothing. The guy played just 42 snaps as a rookie. And if we are going to give Decastro credit for all the Ravens picks over the last decade, then let's hold him accountable for the failures. How about Adam Terry, 2nd round OT in 2005? Or Casey Rabach, 3rd round OL in 2001?
     
  32. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Graham, Gronkowski, Pitta and Dickson were all drafted in 2010. The Ravens/Decosta apparently thought Ed Dickson (No. 70) was better than Jimmy Graham (No. 95).
     
  33. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Problem is he hadn't succeeded at finding a franchise QB, so those numbers are great, but not properly weighted because they assume that every position has the same value.

    I've made my thoughts on Ireland clear, he makes safe picks and undervalues the skill positions.

    Ask yourself this if you're Pro-Ireland: Who has Ireland drafted that opposing D-Co's have to gameplan for?
     
  34. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Most of you know where I stand on Jeff Ireland but as a fellow stat nerd, I really do appreciate the time you put in here and it's an enjoyable read. As I said in that other thread, I think it's important to take account of the players drafted still on the roster. I know you and others disagree but player retention is, in my opinion, a very important part of any GM's job. I'd like to see those numbers in comparison with the rest of the league. Really not sure how Ireland would stack up there. Maybe about the same, maybe worse. If I ever get some time, I'll try and gather the information.

    Also, there's the problem of Ireland's perception around the league which is more and more the perception of a man players don't want to deal with and coaches don't want to work with. It's arguable, but perception often becomes reality. And I think that's a big problem.

    I don't think there's any reason Ireland shouldn't have been swept away with the rest of the failed regime, but the reality is he's still here. In my opinion he's got this season to prove that wasn't a huge mistake. If this team with it's weaknesses at crucial positions fails to win more than a handful of games as many expect, Ross will have little choice but to dump him if he cares at all about season ticket sales. And that's the painful reality no matter what your opinion is of the man.
     
  35. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Losing your starting Qb in week 3 in 2 of the last 4 years is also a pretty big factor.
     
  36. HardKoreXXX

    HardKoreXXX Insensitive to the Touch

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    Did that really make a huge difference though, honestly?
     
  37. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

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    Conceivably. We went 11-5 with Pennington, and 7-9 the following year. I think a healthy Pennington (not to say that should be expected) was worth at least 2 more wins than a 2nd year Henne.

    Had Matt Moore got the job in camp and started every game last year we might've gone 8-8.

    Now, who decided Henne would start over Moore last year? I doubt it was Ireland.

    That's not to absolve Ireland of blame (as he did pick Henne too), but I'm trying to illustrate coaching and luck do play a part IMO.
     
  38. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Last season, no. When Pennington went down and we started Henne? Yes.
     
  39. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Who was the franchise QB he was supposed to have drafted prior to this year?

    And how does he undervalue skill positions? Only 5 of the 22 starters on a team are skill position players (22%). I don't count FB because in today's NFL, that is not really a skill position. Since 2008, Ireland has used 8 1-3rd round picks on skill position players (Tannehill, Egnew, DThomas, Turner, Henne, PWhite, and Brandon Marshall (2)) and 12 on non-skill position players. In other words, he has used 40% of his top 3 round picks on skill position players even though they make up only 22% of the starting lineup. I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a good team that has taken a higher percentage of skill position players in the first 3 rounds.
     
    CWBIII likes this.
  40. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That seems a bit hypocritical with respect to Jeff Ireland. We don't know to any certainty how much a part, or not a part, of some of Miami's major draft misses he was when Parcells was here. Pat White seems to be about the only one we've got a good amount of clarification on being solely Bill Parcells' pick.
     

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