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The real QB ranking.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by djphinfan, Jul 19, 2015.

  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thought Id come up with a new ranking..which is the one i prefer to use, and that is, rank the qbs as to who you would want moving forward with our franchise, taking into account all variables like age, on and off the field stuff, durability, even counting the new guys, and of course who you think projects to be the best qb in our uniform..Dont think of your our team and where were at, think of it as starting a new franchise from scratch..

    1} Aaron Rogers

    2} Andrew Luck

    3} Russell Wilson

    4} Ben Rothlesberger

    5} Marcus Mariota

    6} Joe Flacco

    7} Colin Kaepernik

    8} Matt Ryan

    9} Ryan Tannehill

    10} Derek Carr.

    11} Jameis Winston

    12} Teddy bridge

    13} Matt Stafford

    14} Cam Newton

    15} Nick Foles.




    maybe some of you would take Jameis Winston depending on how much you love his game and projection..I know Mariota is the sh&& for me so Id drop my drawers for him moving forward..

    I really like derek carr as well..

    Obviously I left out Brady Brees and Manning because i just couldn't trade the youth and ceiling for a few more years of success with the older guys.

    Ryan, if he just learns a few nuances of the game, situationally, will be young enough next year to move up that list, today I watched a game by aaron rogers against the lions and he had the shredded calf, yet still, when he saw wide open space in front of him as he stepped up into the pocket, he gave a look to the field and his progression but made that quick second decision to take off for 15 and slide for a first down, the drive resulted in a td, he did it twice, with one leg..it shows you the awareness of how important it is....If ryan incorporates this element, he goes up..If Lazor keeps and ups his level of dual threat capacity, he moves up next year.
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I wouldn't put Kaepernick above Tannehill. If you just go by passer ratings, Kap is stagnant while Tannehill is on the rise. Also, the TD/INT ratio for Kap keeps getting worse and worse each year, while the opposite is true for Tannehill.

    I'd also not put any rookie QB that high on the list given how often projections turn out to be wrong.
     
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  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't choose qbs based on just passer ratings, especially ones that can hurt you with their legs, scrambling and playmaking don't seem to fit into the stat dept, seems silly to leave that out of the equation no....so you would take proven over what you believe to be the better player in the future?.
     
  4. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Hope you have thick skin lol...

    - Big Ben is 33 years old. Taken a ton of punishment in his career and is on the fringe of his prime. You would rather have him for 3-5 years, than a 25 year old Cam Newton? Than a 26 year old Matt Stafford? A 26 year old Ryan Tannehill? I get Aaron Rodgers at 31, because he's out of this world talented. Not Big Ben though.

    - Mariota and Winston ahead of a number of established QB's is highly questionable. I don't like Mariota as an NFL QB. Going to bust hard. Winston, I kind of get. Certainly would put him ahead of any 2013 QB's. Below Cam Newton and Stafford, 100%. Newton and Stafford have established themselves, even with any perceived or actual flaws.

    - No Manziel? Didn't you like him? I wouldn't want him or rank him, but I just thought you did. Might be wrong.

    - Derek Carr is way too high. He took care of the ball, good TD/INT ratio but that's about all he did well. Teddy Bridgewater was superior in every other way. I think he's a little overrated.

    - Kaepernick is way to high. A lack of mechanics, pocket awareness, and ability to read defenses make him ineffective IMO. Has regressed every season. Give me Tannehill, Newton, Stafford, Ryan, all day erry day > Ckaep.
     
  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    1} Big Ben...would i take 5 years of big ben over a cam newton?..hell yes, because I don't believe cam newton has the good to win a championship so why wouldn't I

    2} Mariota...You call him a hard bust...I call him a star....were both on the record..

    3} Manziel..I said if he took the game seriously and he wasn't a punk at the next level like he was in college he would be successful...could be wrong on that eval..maybe he starts to take the game seriously now that he's been humbled.

    4} Derek carr or Bridge, its a good debate, I don't think you can say one way or the other, their close in potential..
     
  6. The Sportz Guy

    The Sportz Guy New Member

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    Mariota at 5?!?

    [​IMG]
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah, I think Tannehill's upside does it for me. I think he's got one or two more years of going up before plateauing (wow! just realized that word has 4 consecutive vowels haha!). And while you're right about the scrambling ability, I think Tannehill is the better pocket passer so that part should even out.
     
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  8. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you can gamble on 5 years for a broken Ben, you have to then rethink your position on 4 years of guys like Brady and Brees, no?

    I would still take 3-4 years of those guys over everyone except your Top 3.
     
    P h i N s A N i T y likes this.
  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    1) A. Rodgers
    2) A. Luck
    3) R. Tannehill
    4) M. Ryan
    5) M. Stafford
    6) B. Roethliberger
    7) R. Wilson
    8) D. Carr
    9) J. Flacco
    10) B. Bortles
    11) T. Bridgewater
    12) C. Newton

    I wouldn't "attach my wagon" to anyone else, and would rather roll with a nobody for a year and then draft some yet unknown.
     
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  10. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Gimme great pocket passing and decent ability to run, over can only do sh*t with the legs but sucks in the pocket. It has to be INSANELY hard to learn to be great in the pocket when every play you're looking for a running lane. Same for pocket guys...when they're great there, they're always looking for the open guy.

    I'll take pocket.
     
  11. huck1974

    huck1974 FU Gene Steratore

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    This will not be popular. I would take Brady for his last years. He is my number two after Rodgers and before Luck.
     
  12. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    I like your 1 and 2, I'll give you that.
     
  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I would think that 1 & 2 would be nearly universal.
     
  14. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Damn, you guys are ranking Cam Newton extremely low... Three straight years of progression as a passer, prior to his car accident and offensive implosion. Has duel threat ability. Carried an offense on his back since his rookie year. 26 years old. I guess I'm in the minority, but I'd love to have Cam Newton.
     
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  15. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I'm not going to try and use any stats to back up my claim. I just don't like him. Eyeball test and his personality. Watching him play, I don't think that you can rely on him. There are a lot of big plays, but also a lot of bonehead ones. Plus, the constant and increasing chance of injury due to his style. No thanks.
     
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  16. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    There was a pretty big debate on Newton a while back when he signed his big contract... as a passer I don't really like him, but you can't deny his talent as a running QB, besides the fact that he's extremely tough and can run over people if needed. Might be the homer in me, but I'd still take Tannehill over him and over a lot of other QB's.
     
  17. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    1} Aaron Rogers

    2} Andrew Luck

    3} Russell Wilson

    4} Ryan Tannehill

    5} Matt Ryan

    6} Cam Newton

    7} Ben Rothlesberger

    8} Joe Flacco

    9} Blake Bortles

    10} Derek Carr

    11} Jameis Winston

    12} Teddy bridge

    13} Matt Stafford

    14} Nick Foles

    15} Colin Kaepernik

    16} Marcus Mariota
     
  18. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yes I would take a Mariota at #5, build an offense around that beautiful skill set and kick all y'all asses for the next decade.
     
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    your a stats guy I thought, just based on the passing numbers Kaepernik has a 90 career QBR, not counting what he does on the ground or whats he's accomplished in the postseason....and Im sure Resnor and co.have Kaepernik ahead of ryan, because I know they only look at the numbers....aint that right guys?

    lol..thats a good one right there.
     
  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ben is a young 33 and todays are qbs are playing longer than ever..brady is four years older..so is brees almost.
     
  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    thanks for playing the game correctly, unlike some who won't even rank a winston or a mariota..really surprised where you got Newton
     
  22. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    If Brady had taken the beating Roethlisberger had taken (plus adding in the times he would have been sacked when Roethlisberger managed to pull away and get the ball off) he would be strongly considering retirement last year. He hasn't got the frame Roethlisberger has. Personally, I don't like a run first, or even a QB who is focused on the run except as a planned, and practiced means of extricating himself from a rampaging herd of defensive linemen. Occasionally, a run option being stuck in the routine to keep the hesitancy in the Defense's minds is good. But keep in mind that the minute the run is started, all rulebook protections for the QB are off the table, and don't you think that every DB in creation just drools for chances like that!
     
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  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I don't understand your concept of "proven".

    You claim it is a huge factor, yet have rookies high on the list. Then your concept of proven becomes even more inconsistent, by having Luck over Wilson & Ben & Flacco.
     
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  24. The Sportz Guy

    The Sportz Guy New Member

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    So, as long as you emulate the Oregon offense in the NFL...
     
  25. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic 30 years and counting Club Member

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    I'd hesitate to call Ben a "young 33". He's a tough guy, but taken a ton of punishment.

    My list puts Mariotta near the bottom. Putting him that high when he hasn't thrown an pass in an actual NFL game is a bit crazy IMO.

    1) Aaron Rogers
    2) Andrew Luck
    3) Russell Wilson
    4) Ryan Tannehill
    5) Matt Ryan
    6) Cam Newton
    7) Ben Rothlesberger
    8) Joe Flacco
    9) Jameis Winston
    10) Blake Bortles
    11) David Carr
    12) Teddy bridgewater
    13) Matt Stafford
    14) Colin Kaepernik
    15) M Mariotta
    16) A Smith
    17) A Dalton
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Since you're asking who to take for the future (I'm guessing ~5 years or so?), I think it's important to try and extrapolate from past stats to future stats. As you point out, Kap has a career ~90 passer rating and has remained fairly steady over the 4 years (range is 81.2-98.3), with the same playoff average of 87.3. So, if you draw a trend line you'd expect the same in the next few years.

    With Tannehill, you draw a trend line through his ratings and you're probably landing around 100 rating this year, going up 8 per year. With only 3 years under his belt and steady improvement (both stat-wise and eyeball-wise) each year, you gotta assume Tannehill's rating will keep going up. For how long? Who knows, but like I said I'm assuming another 1-2 years improvement before plateauing. That will put Tannehill well above Kap.

    And the other stat I care about is TD/INT ratio. As pointed out before, the trend for Kap is that ratio getting worse every year, while for Tannehill it keeps getting better. With Tannehill, you're projecting a 2.8:1 TD/INT ratio next year if he improves at the same rate as the past 3 years, while for Kap you're projecting 1.3:1 TD/INT ratio if he keeps regressing as in the past 3 years (first year he threw no TD or INT). He even regressed in that department in the playoffs, though there the sample size is absurdly small.

    So yeah, on potential I'd take Tannehill over Kap for the future. And the 2014 version of Tannehill I think was already better than 2014 Kap (certainly true stat-wise).
     
  27. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    Yeah. Really not into Mariota at 5. Beyond the fact that I don't buy ANY unproven rookie at 5, I am not as impressed with his "skill set" at this point.
     
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  28. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    OH yeah and Kaepernick? Just no.
     
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  29. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ben is not a young 33. He's had surgeries to his knees, shoulder, elbow, ankle, etc. He's not one of those guys I see playing for until he's 40.

    Personally, give me Brady for 4 years (like Peyton in Denver) with this team and I know I'm going to a Super Bowl. Can you say that about anyone else outside the Top 3?
     
  30. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The rest of your list is fine. It's opinion. Most of it I agree with.

    Roethlisberger is crazy underrated too. He's a stud. I'm arguing the merits of your logic on why you can include him and not Brady or Brees, who look to have at least 4 years left. Personally, give me 4 years of Brady or Brees and I know I'm contending (outside of the Top 3).
     
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  31. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    1} Aaron Rogers
    2} Russell Wilson
    3} Andrew Luck
    4} Ben Rothlesberger
    5} Ryan Tannehill
    6} Matt Ryan
    7} Matt Stafford
    8} Joe Flacco
    9} Cam Newton
    10} Teddy bridge
    11} Derek Carr
    12} Colin Kaepernik
    13} Nick Foles.
    14} Marcus Mariota
    15} Jameis Winston

    Here is my list. I rearranged the QBs you listed but personally I wouldn't include rookies along with vets as the bust rate for QBs (no matter how can't-miss they are) is just too great. Of the two rookies I like MM better. He just seems like a guy who is going to give it his all to over come his limitations ala Wilson or Brees. Although his shenanigans with not signing so he can surf has me wondering. To me Winston is a good not great on field talent that has had too many off-field issues. I think he may flash but once he taste success he's bound to revert to his knucklehead ways.




     
  32. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    I wouldn't touch Winston with a ten foot pole. Bust city all over that kid.

    I also am in no way confidant that Mariotta is a can't miss prospect. I don't feel as good about him coming into the league as I did Carr or Bortles last year. Certainly wouldn't have taken him highly in the first round.
     
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  33. IdrA

    IdrA Rebuilding for Eternity.

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    Honestly unless I can get Rodgers or Luck I'd rather just stick with Tannehill.
     
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  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I said what I said because someone said they wouldn't take one of the rookies ahead of anyone of the qbs I listed, so I used that word...
     
  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    not quite but your on the right track, the offense would be catered to the qb, I surely wouldn't be bringing in norv turner, and he absolutely would be encouraged to be a dual threat, read option game.
     
  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    he turned 33 in march thats why I said young 33..

    Well thats the beauty of projection, I had Mariota higher ranked coming out than most so I'm sticking to that with the future in mind..big picture mindset..
     
  37. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yeah I can look at certain teams and understand why a qb might of had an off year or in this case numbers that went down, and certainly not blame him because of the disfunction around him..why, because I evaluate players based on watching them and their surroundings..
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    your not impressed with the most dangerous dual threat qb thats ever to come out of college?..hmmm ok, its your list..
     
  39. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Kaepernik will serve a lot of crow this year on a bad team.
     
  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Its a good point, that is would you take 3 or 4 years of competing for championships or a whole career, I went with the latter because I want my own dynasty.
     

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