understandable..for me the heisman winner, being that talented and young, allows me to build that coveted dynasty, and allows me a few years of building the right team around him..
Being a Heisman winner is in no way indicative of being a great NFL QB. To be honest, and I'm no where near a scout, so take this with a bunch of grains of salt, I'm not sure Mariota can make the NFL throws necessary. He didn't have great arm strength in college, and his combine or pro day that I was watching, he didn't display great arm strength. So, a guy who possibly can't make all the throws, but can run, I'm all set with. 1} Aaron Rogers 2} Andrew Luck 3} Ryan Tannehill 4} Cam Newton 5} Matt Stafford 6} Big Ben 7} Matt Ryan 8} Russell Wilson 9} Joe Flacco 10} Derek Carr 11} Nick Foles 12} Teddy bridge 13} Blake Bortles 14} Jameis Winston 15} Colin Kaepernik 16} Marcus Mariota After the first 10, it's kinda a crap shoot for me.
I liked CKap coming out in terms of potential. Great arm, great athleticism, but he hadn't shown the ability to read defenses. Most rookies have to develop that so I didn't knock him much for it then, but 4 years in there should be considerable improvement. Unfortunately, he hasn't shown much development in that area. I see that as a critical QB skill. I think that's why his rating is dropping. After the normal bump from year 1 to year 2, he's dropped the last two years. I see that as reflective of what I see on the field. Teams with athletic, fast LBs can keep him in the pocket and make him try to win from there. He doesn't do that well enough. He relies on seeing the receiver break free and then gunning it in there. He has more velocity than most so he gets away with it more than most, but his numbers are dropping b/c more teams are figuring out how to play him. He has a weakness and good teams will take advantage. You can obviously win some with him but I doubt he'll ever win it all as he's likely to face several good teams during a playoff run.
I really had a tough time ranking Ben. I see him as one of the best, but I didn't know how much to discount due to his age.
Luck [25] Rogers [31] Wilson [26] Brady [38] - Don't care how old he is, I'm not foregoing a likely SB trip over the next 4 years for a younger QB that I only hope can develop into one capable of taking us to a SB at least once in his career. You guys are downplaying a SB win wayyyyy to much! Physically seems like he's still 33. People questioned whether or not it'd be worth it for Denver to only get a couple years from Manning. I'm sure they're enjoying this brief time MUCHHHHH MORE than they would the first 7 or 8 years of the typical 1st rounder's career, especially if he happened to turn out to be Blaine Gabbert. A hand in the bush, my friends. Roethlisberger [33] - in his prime. Sacked just 33 times in 608 att last year, lowest % of career. Takes less bodily risk now. Tannehill [26] Eli [34] -looked good in just his first year in McAdoo's Green Bay system, posting a rating of 112+ six times. First time in his career to own a 2:1 TD-INT ratio while throwing 4k yards. Still the same clutch guy with 26 career 4th qtr comebacks and holder of 2 SB rings. Rivers [33] -currently in his prime Matt Ryan [30] -finally showing he might just grow into something resembling Brady over the next 8 yrs after all. Romo [35] -currently still in his prime and playing his best ever Brees [36] -combination of height plus age hurts him more than age alone of the guys listed ahead of him Stafford [27]... sacked 45 times last year but led NFL in 4th Qtr comebacks w/ 5. Still plenty of untapped potential. Flacco [30] Bradford [27] if healthy this former #1 overall pick goes before everyone else remaining. Newton Mariotta Winston Foles Peyton Manning Kaepernick Carr Bortles Bridgewater Dalton A Smith Two things: 1. The "age issue" is heavily overrated. I won't assume Ben, Brady, Rivers, Eli, and Romo will start declining quickly over the next few years any more than I'll assume the young QBs listed after them will develop into the next crop of top QBs over the next 5 or 6 years. Because the highest level of QB success, production, and efficiency in today's game is about mastering the cerebral aspect of it like a chess player, it usually takes time to become one of the game's chess masters. I'm talking the level at which the QB can finally put his team on his back and win even when things aren't the greatest around him. Brady didn't attain his master level until his 30's. Rivers finally reached it 2 years ago at 32. Roethlisberger got there last year at 32. If Pitt didn't have a great defense they wouldn't have won 2 SBs on Ben's arm alone. Matt Ryan still isn't there yet and he's 30 and quite intelligent. Atlanta has waited 7 years thus far for him to reach the level where he's capable of taking over games. Peyton Manning didn't reach the Manning level we're currently familiar with until his 30's. Therefore I ask myself, why should I take a younger guy I'll have to wait a while on to reach his prime when I can bypass all that mess and go directly to the source? This whole "10-15 years with X quarterback is more valuable than 3-5 years with Brady, Rivers, Ben, etc" is just silly. It's about quality, not quantity. Atlanta will get at least a dozen years from Matt Ryan. How many of the 7 years thus far has he shown the ability to carry his team like a Brady, Brees, Manning, Ben, Rivers, etc? He's not there yet. Newton's entering his 5th year. What has he done thus far to make those 5 years any more valuable than 1 year from Brady? Not a darn thing. Until Cam [or any young talented QB] becomes a guy capable of consistently carrying his team to the playoffs, in the grand scheme of things it really doesn't matter if the name on the back of that jersey reads Andy Dalton or Sam Bradford b/c you're not winning a SB with him w/o a great surrounding cast and stellar defense. Carolina's D was average in 2012 and they won 7 games. It was great in 2013 and they won 12. Back to average again last year and they dipped right back to 7 wins. Everyone here would likely place Newton above Kaepernick [understandably so], but which one owns the better record since being drafted in 2012? -Kaepernick, 25-14 to Cam's 30-31-1.... so it really doesn't matter what their potential is until they're actually playing at that level. 2. If I feel a player doesn't have the potential to become a top 5 QB then I'm not putting him ahead of the guys who are already there, b/c under this exercise we won't already have a high draft pick invested in these young players like their respective teams did. Choosing Winston doesn't mean you have to give up your 1st rounder like Tampa did. So in that regard, give me a QB who can win now and offers the best shot at a SB over the next 5 years, and in return I'll postpone that 1st round pick for a later date.
IMO it's not surprising for a dual threat QB to produce some nice numbers. The run threat makes defenses play you differently. You face more simplified defenses. Defenses will play zone more often to keep an eye on you. That makes reads easier. In fact, it should be a red flag if you're a dual threat QB and your numbers aren't higher. You're facing simplified reads and still struggling. That's why it bugged me that Tannehill wasn't used as a dual threat QB under Sherman. (Sherman seemed to think he did, but running a 2 or 3 read options in one game over a six week period doesn't make anybody fear the QB run!). Even under Lazer, I feel that part of his game has been under-utilized. Yes, I know it may have been a plan to help Tannehill read defenses better and Tannehill is better at it than all the young QBs except Luck, but IMO you could do both instead of teaching your QB to sit there and be a punching bag. I think they're very lucky that Tannehill hasn't turned into David Carr.
I disagree with you about David Carr, Rafael. Being hit had less to do with Carr failing than some suggest. He just wasn't very good IMO. Couldn't make reads and held onto the ball forever. He would of sucked even if he had the cowboys oline.
Last 3 years..not only last year....and how's Manziel doing for you? You were all over that bandwagon last year...Lol.
I was wondering where Phillip Rivers was on everybody's list. I'd take him over a lot of the other QB's on people's lists in this thread.
I thought about Rivers but figured if we are throwing out Brady and Manning due to age I'm not taking Rivers.
I'm Because I prefaced him as a heisman winner doesn't mean jack, I get that, shows me where your heads at when you try to infer like that... questionable arm strength, that's a new one...Mariota has it all..
I've hated Rivers since he was a freshman at NC st and the media was gaga over him. Can't stand that funky delivery he has and his personality is like clawing on a chalkboard. I'm extra pumped when the Fins embarass him like we did last year.
his game to me has always been overrated so there are many qbs I'd rather start my team with than him
Watch more film on kapernik that last few years, and sure may of gotten Manziel wrong but we'll see..
I believe I can set up a team around those passing defeciences, as long as I have a good arm, accurate when needed,and elite playmaking ability
This list would be different if it were an established franchise, but since were starting from scratch I capped the age at 31 for my list. 1) Luck - Oozes leadership and talent. Tough. Absolute winner. Enough said, play speaks for itself. 2) Rogers - Only age drops him from the top spot. Best in the biz and future HOF already winning a Super Bowl. Only a backup TE abandoning his blocking responsibility on an onside kick kept him from playing the Patriots for a second Lombardi Trophy last year. 3) Wilson - What's not to like after what he did his senior year at Wisconsin (transfer putting up greatest single-season QB rating in college football history according to their rater) and 1-1 in Super Bowls three years in to his career. 4) Newton - One of those QBs whose passing statistics don't measure how good he really is. Physical specimen and a WINNER. 14-0 in college, National Championship, Heisman Trophy (perhaps the greatest single season in college football 30 TD passes 21 Rushing) and quickly turned around a 2-14 team that drafted him. The death of most QBs leading new franchise is getting pummeled from a developing OL lacking in talent and cohesion, Newton's legs and physical prowess give him a better opportunity of surviving and thriving than a more skilled pocket passer. 5) Mariota - Leader. Winner. Accurate. Can make all the throws. Dual threat whose legs can make up for a developing OL. Don't have to worry about Mariota being suspended for off-the-field behavior. The kind of high-character and skilled player I would want to be the face of a new franchise. 6) Kaepernick - Best running QB in NFL. Incredible arm strength the Niners will try to take advantage of this year. I would hire an OC that implements the Pistol. Leader and winner. Led Nevada Wolfpack (who?) to a final AP ranking of #11 his senior year which included ending Boise States 24 game winning streak. Two and a half years as a starter and narrowly missed one Super Bowl victory and one of the greatest defensive plays in NFL history (Sherman tip-int) kept the 49ers from a return visit. The 49ers organization were obviously in a state of dysfunction last year with Harbaugh so will be interesting to see how things play out this year. Worked with Warner and others to improve pocket skills this offseason. 7) Bridgewater – Showed he probably should have been the #1 pick by the Texans last year. Vikings reaped the benefits of a poor Pro-day. Came on STRONG after his first couple of starts and by the end of the year was playing exceptional. Smart. Has the touch that will make Wallace look like his Steeler days (but still a basket-catching A-hole). 8) Winston – Leadership and toughness make him worth the risk, but it is a big risk given his age and the immaturity he showed at FSU. 9) Carr – Given the talent around him his rookie season showed maturity and skills to be the real-deal. Will take off this year with Cooper and Crabtree to throw to. Would be a big step up from his brother in leading a new franchise. 10) Stafford - Big, tough, gun-slinger with leadership qualities. Injured first two years in career, but played all 16 games last four years. Both Stafford and Tannehill will be 27 years old when season starts, but already six years of taking pounding in the NFL leads me to question how long he would hold up. 11) Nick Foles – Had an incredible 2013 season with a 119.2 QB rating to go along with 27/2 TD/int ratio. Fell a little back down to earth last year, but still led Eagles to 6-2 record before getting injured (14-4 over the past two seasons). Team still averaged 29.3 points per game when he started and never scored under 20 (5 games 30+ points). 12) Tannehill – Good athlete. Nice guy. Showed statistical progression each year. Has yet to show the leadership on and off the field of what it would take to lift a new franchise out of the cellar. 13) Flacco – Leader with big arm and size to perhaps take the pounding he would inevitable endure with a new franchise, but for how long? Just turned 30. 14) Alex Smith – Better athlete than given credit for, but not great. Hit the age limit (31) threshold for my rankings. Limits mistakes. Has a 38-16-1 record as a starter the past 4 seasons. 15) Ryan – Game manager that needs talent around him to win. Not likely with a new franchise. Not a dual threat or the arm to stretch defenses. 16) Manziel – Charismatic and leader. Obviously, off-the-field activities and alcohol abuse did him in last year. If he can stay football focused and sober it will be interesting to see how it plays out in Cleveland. 17) Bortles – Youth his biggest plus. Playing for a new franchise might actually be a step up than playing for the Jaguars. 18) Tebow – Would put butts in the seat and physical enough to withstand the pounding until a solid OL can be built and drafting a QB. Maybe Divine intervention would take place???
the past 2 seasons the guy has surprisingly taken his play to new level. In the past I wouldn't have prioritized him this high, but now he's a different story with new found command of the game. Yeah, he posted 3 outstanding statistical season from '08-10 but he had Gates, V Jackson, Floyd, and Sproles in their primes and was supported by a respectable defense..... yet two of the years saw records of 8-8 and 9-7. The past 2 years he's had a noticeably weaker surrounding cast and a slightly lesser defense but has still put together back-to-back 9-7 seasons while stealing 7 4th quarter comeback wins. IMO most QBs in the league would've been luck to squeeze 5 wins out of that team.
Agreed. Rivers is a guy you can win a lot of games with. Since he's not mobile you've got another 4-5 years out of him
My list... 1. Andrew Luck 2. Aaron Rodgers 3. Russell Wilson 4. Cam Newton 5. Ryan Tannehill 6. Matthew Stafford 7. Jameis Winston 8. Jimmy Garoppolo 9. Teddy Bridgewater Notes: - I thought I would have A-Rod at #1. I really did. He's out of this world talent, might be the best QB of all-time. He's got an elite arm, elite brains, and good legs. Quite frankly, he's the most dynamic package at QB I've ever seen. So Why did I put him at #2? Andrew Luck is 25 and Aaron Rodgers is 31. If I'm taking a QB to start my franchise, those 6 extra years I get from Luck matter to me. It's a huge gamble to trade actual realized elite talent w/potential elite talent, but I'm going to risk it for an extra 6 years. - Seattle's offense doesn't work without Wilson. Has anyone done more, with less? They're not a playoff team without an elite QB. And while Wilson isn't an elite passer, he's pretty good. The only other QB who displays velocity and touch simultaneously the way Wilson does, is A-Rod. Add in the run factor, and Wilson is an elite package IMO. I trust Luck and A-Rod more as pure passers, so they get the edge. - 4-6 was tougher. Miami, Detroit, nor Carolina have done a whole lot to help their franchise QB. Cam resurrected Steve Smith's and Greg Olsen's careers. Smith was thought to be done and Olsen was considered a bust in Chicago. I like the fact that Cam, as raw as he was coming into the league, elevated both. I also like his ability to run. Unlike most running QB's in the league, Cam is a 6''6" 240+ lbs tank with athleticism. Outside of Calvin Johnson, who has battled injuries these last few seasons, Matthew Stafford hasn't had a ton of talent. In fact, nobody has had to deal with more dropped passes than Stafford over the last few years. His mechanics did improve w/an offensive minded HC. If Johnson stays healthy, and Eric Ebron shows up, combo with unsung WR Golden Tate, Matthew Stafford could see his game taken to the next level. At his age, it's worth the gamble IMO. As for Tannehill, we all know what he's endured in Miami. No need to rehash it again. Arrow is up. - And yes... Jimmy G. I like him... I really do. I love his feet, I love his quick release, I love his attitude. He's more of a project than some young QB's given where he came from. But I really think he has a shot of being the next Tony Romo. not just because they're from the same school, but they're similar in a number of ways. Give Jimmy some time on the bench behind Brady, learning how to be a pro, perfecting his mechanics, etc... And I believe he's going to become special. Good news is, if Tom Brady plays as long as he says he wants to, and Tannehill doesn't work out, We'll have a shot at Jimmy in FA after he finishes his rookie contract.
Well stated and argued. Can't go with an unproven rookie over RT at this point. I think Newton is way too lowly ranked as well. If we are talking QBs for the Dolphins team as presently constructed (that factors in a bit as well), say, under 32-33, and for moving forward: 1. Rodgers 2. Luck 3. Wilson 4. Flacco 5. Newton 6. Matt Ryan 7. Tannehill 8. Matt Stafford 9. Alex Smith 10. Nick Foles 11. Bridgewater 12. Dalton In the past year's, I'd probably put Stafford over RT (and debated that right now). I think Stafford is significantly more skilled overall than RT but I wonder about his work ethic. I think he is a bit loose in the way he throws (I think his form is often poor) and makes a lot of mistakes. So, while he's more talented, I'm not sure he'd be better for this team. I also think that RT has a great work ethic and will improve.
The problem is you always have to work around those deficiencies. Being able to read a defense and throw accurately are always going to top my list. Done perfectly, it's the only thing that a defense can never stop. If I'm starting a team, I don't want a guy who can't read a defense. No amount of playmaking ability is going to make me sacrifice that.
There's Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers at the top and after that it doesn't matter. If you're trying to attach some sort of NFL value to the guys who are ranked 3 down to 20, it's pointless unless you want to do some analytical work. There are plenty of ways to do that numerically that are much more well-defined (and would be far more interesting) than just picking players based on who you like and who you don't. If someone wants to sit and show how adding 5% to all of Tannehill's stats would put him and Rodgers on a level playing field as far as making a 1-to-1 comparison goes, I'd love to read that. How many TDs is Green Bay's O-line worth versus Miami's? How many yards is having Green Bay's WR-corp from 2014 worth over Miami's? It's quite possible to make some attempt to do that using numbers and logic rather than qualitative "I like this and I don't like that" type of arguments. To be honest though, I think fans are WAY too opinionated. I'm pretty happy to let the basic stuff like QBR sort these guys out. It's no good game-to-game, but by the end of the year it's a great summation of all we know as fans in terms of who played QB the best that year. The only changes I'd make to that list would be in regards to a small group of teams who are coached by guys I feel make a big difference in their QBs success. For example, I don't think Mark Sanchez' higher QBR is sufficient evidence to say he's better than Matthew Stafford. I would quickly take Stafford over Sanchez regardless of coach. But, that might tell you that Chip Kelly is doing something much better for his QBs than the coaches up in Detroit, or simply that Matthew Stafford is too hot and cold not to acknowledge it's an issue that should be considered when making these types of lists. Maybe you don't like the list as it pertains to 2014 but do an average over the last 3-4 years and I bet you more or less agree with how things shake out.
Agreed. I don't get the Mariota hype at all. And if Russel Wilson played for a team like Tennessee I think the consensus on him would be entirely different.
From NFL.COM: Arm strength is adequate but inconsistent to field side. Needs to bring hips through throws to increase zip into tight windows in NFL. Watching one of his televised workouts, they were talking about not great arm strength. So, whatever, I guess.
I love Ben. I was using him I the argument that if you're discounting Brady and Brees due to age and limited time on your team, you have to take that into consideration with Roethlisberger. I don't think he's broken. That was a poor adjective. However, no QB on that list has had more surgeries to more body parts than Ben. You can make the case that Brees' injury was more serious than any other, and could show itself at some point - if it hasn't already.
Well, I enjoy doing it because its fun and I like to have conversations about these things. Its also really great to read all of the other opinions of guys who clearly feel as strongly as I do, or moreso about it. This is a big part of what being a fan is for me. I watch the games 16 days a year, but think about things like this all 365.
you forgot Tomilinson, I mean we talk about surround cast all the time and how it affects the qb, that guy had two hall of fame in their prime, the best 3rd down back in the game, and a true #1, and still couldn't get things done..the stats may not show but when the game intensity increases, the pocket gets more constricted and his game reduces...he needs to much of a clean pocket imo to go all the way..
yeah I have to take into account your first paragraph, thats the debate ya now, better percentages to win championships in smaller windows, or take that risk on high young talent with longevity..I think you make that case with Luck.
spot on with stafford, he actually hasn't taken his craft seriously up til recently, lets his body get out of shape in the offseason, is not disciplined with his mechanics, but great natural ability.
I believe that to be exaggerated, were talking about a young player,close to the same age as ryan who has a 90 qbr. career [which doesn't include run yardage, lol, which is just ridiculous, to not have that in some sort of rating is bs}.you said yourself the threat of the run by the qb opens up the pass, so if used correctly, that threat is not going away, I don't want that qb to be back in the pocket sitting and running a timing based offense..I think he has proven on the road against great teams, great defenses and great home field advantages {green bay seattle} that he can lead an offense and convert drives into points in those situations, his game holds up.. he works extremely hard on his game and his physical conditioning, so for all the folks writing him off and showing some stats that show him descending as a young qb, Imo whoever is doing that is making a mistake..
short post but I believe your going to be wrong twice...already wrong about wilson, he has a game that can go anywhere.
