PBP: Transition to 4-3 defense shouldn’t be too difficult

It's another fluff article, but it's July so what can you do

http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/thed...ion-to-4-3-defense-shouldnt-be-too-difficult/

Overall, I agree with the premise. I don't expect the Dolphins to take a step back because of scheme change. Things will be done differently, but those things will for the most part not be new- A lot of techniques and positioning have already been in the defense. A lot of base 4-3 stuff was already present in the 4-2-4 Nickel package for the last couple years.

This is something that people were initially confused about, but has been repeated over and over by the media and seems correlated by camp pictures-

I think the assumption that the Dolphins will be running a 4-3 Under might not entirely be correct based on what I've seen. I at least thought that was the deal when they said it was a 4-3 with 3-4 elements and that they seem to be running with nearly the same starting package as last season. The Burnett strong/Misi weak thing, and the pictures I've seen seem to suggest otherwise. I've also seen Wake on the strong side in base packages, so I'm wondering if this coaching staff also seems to think it's more important to have Wake on the defenses left side than have him line up free of a tight end, and they might be doing a lot of 4-3 Over stuff.

 

I think Wake will really flourish in this new Defense.

 

Avril did not get a long term deal. I would not mind making a run at him when he'll be just 27 next off-season.

 

I'm waiting on preseason before I start plugging away at details of who exactly will play what. I've seen reports that Cameron Wake will be playing exclusive RDE which I tend to doubt. I've seen reports of Koa Misi playing Will AND Sam, same with Kevin Burnett. Seen conflicting reports on what Reshad Jones and Chris Clemons are playing.

I'm just going to have to wait because I don't really trust the media to tell me.

I also don't trust that 12% number, or at least I think Kevin Coyle left something important unsaid about it. Also I don't know if that Cincinnati Enquirer article was truly based on a new interview they did with Coyle. It could have been. But I think that 12% number came from a press availability he did much earlier in the off season, toward when he was hired.

 

12% seems REALLY low. The percentage of time playing a "true 3-4" should be based on the percentage of the time the team was in the 3-4 with it's base personnel on the field, that would be much more accurate. Anytime we were in nickel/dime etc. should be removed from the equation.

 

Well, this is new, but it doesn't shed much light on anything we don't already know:

http://www.miamidolphins.com/media/...in-Coyle/db77a586-47d4-4b79-9ed3-31e9d1b509ae

Going back to when Coyle first got to Miami, IIRC the interview CK alluded to, Coyle said that Miami was in a base 3-4 defense something like 28% or 29% of the time in 2011, not 12% - I could be wrong, but that 12% number doesn't sound right to me either.

 

The 28-29% number sounds much closer to the truth. And I bet we were only in base situations to begin with maybe a total of 40% (we're in the same division as the Patriots, after all).

I mean it's a good point to talk about how little we were in base 3-4 in order to get an idea that it was really only one-quarter to one-third of the defense (though it's what you base the teaching of the other two-thirds to three-quarters, which is important), but that 12% number just seems off to me. I'm thinking if the number really did come from Kevin Coyle, he may have been referring to how often we were in a straight 3-4 defense with classic two-gap responsibilities, but even that seems low.

 

Yeah, that'd seem to be about the only scenario in which the 12% number fits, but I agree, I don't think that's right either.

 

Interesting but all conjecture at this point. As CK points out, not believing much of what I hear or read until I see solid evidence in TC or preseason games. The most telling thing we get to see this preseason may be the Hard Knocks programs, can't wait to see them.

 

Here's the original video of Coyle with the Finsiders back when he was first hired. Go to the 1:15 - 1:25 mark. He mentions the Dolphins were in a "pure 3-4" about 28% of the time last year.

http://www.miamidolphins.com/media/...in-Coyle/73baa769-c014-40e0-a90b-7b769ffbdbc5

 

Football Outsiders 2012 Almanac has this-

4-2-5= 42%
3-4-4= 23%
4-3-4= 10%
3-3-5= 10%
Dime+ = 10%

Absolutely would not recommend it though. It's got a couple of nice stats and maybe the most obnoxiously written intro I've ever seen to the Dolphins section.

 

Written intro was atrocious. Weird too, since their projection for the team isn't all that bad. I emailed them my gripes.

 

Any chance you could do a copy & paste for those of us stuck at work?

 

Probably against TOS for me to post it here. Basically was just a hit-piece on Ireland. Called him the "new Matt Millen". Said nobody wants to play for us, etc. Was no different than anything you would find in the rant section here.

Really disappointing because they usually do solid work.

I will post their projections for Miami though:

 

Yeesh...well, in that case, I'm glad you chose not to post it here. That paints enough of a picture for me.

 

I am a little bit disappointed in general by the way they're seemingly going about the switch to a 4-3. The Dolphins new defense is (seemingly) a little too reliant on substitution and more susceptible to base defense passing than I think they really need to be.

I think that it's become increasingly important in the NFL to keep your base defense and Nickel package as close together in terms of personnel, and make the guys who are staying on the field your highly paid guys. Base defenses are no longer the predominant defense in the NFL, for the last two years sub packages have accounted for >50% of defensive snaps league wide, and it's been moving steadily in that direction for years.

Those base defenses are also being challenged more as well in the passing game. There's been a trend of top offenses throwing out of offensive formations that would generally be defended by base defenses. The Patriots, Chargers, and Saints for example all pass pretty frequently out of 2-TE or I-Formation packages. The trend of the ultra athletic tight end has I'd argue made this more problematic, and more teams are moving in the two-TE direction recently- The Dolphins seemingly are one of them.

I think the Dolphins missed the boat a bit by not picking up a stronger "true" 3rd linebacker, not letting Soliai walk for someone who could play the position differently and still rush the passer, and by continuing to have Jared Odrick play DE rather than DT.

 

Yeah, I expected negative, but it wasn't even well supported. Stringer is right on when he says it would probably get sent immediately to rants or maybe worse if it got posted here.

 

Not only wasn't it not well-supported, there were a few things that were outright false.

They claimed that we would have trouble re-signing Long, because we were up against the cap. Aren't we like $50M under the cap next year?

They also claimed that we couldn't even get a face-to-face with Manning, when we in fact got a 5 hr meeting with him.

Just a really disappointing article, because FO is usually pretty in-depth. Generally I'm not a fan of Mike Tanier, who wrote Miami's chapter, so that could be the problem here.

 

I think that's a great observation. Just from watching the Bengals the last few years, they rely a lot on sub packages. Now, I'm not sure if that's all due to Zimmer or a combination of the defensive staff; though it seems like from Coyle's interviews at least, he shares the same kind of philosophy.

The Bengals had a lot of guys that were sub package players last year - Carlos Dunlap, Frostee Rucker, Jonathan Fanene, and Brandon Johnson come to mind a lot, at least in the front 7. I wouldn't count on Olivier Vernon having the type of impact that Dunlap had, but I think rotating in Tony McDaniel and kicking Jared Odrick inside on passing downs could be more impactful than Jonathan Fanene. Perhaps Vernon could play like Rucker did for Cincinnati. Brandon Johnson was a very underrated pass coverage linebacker who was mostly on in 3-3-5 nickel situations with Thomas Howard and Manny Lawson. I think Gary Guyton could be that guy for Miami. I'd like to think having Richard Marshall as our 3rd CB is better than the Bengals using Pacman Jones and then Morgan Trent.

Even if the transition, for lack of better terminology, isn't as seamless from the base to sub packages, I think Miami's got some pieces - some better than the Bengals had last year - to at least play effectively in those sub packages. I could definitely see a team like New England, or Houston for that matter, making good use of no-huddle or quick huddle offenses against Miami if they're frantically trying to change those packages.

 

Mostly, yeah. I think the wrinkle of having three edge rushers on the field even in base packages is a useful one in the regard I'm talking about.

Odrick's a better edge rusher than Langford but at the end of the day how much pass rush are you going to get out of a 300lb. former DT playing wide of tackle either way?

I'd have personally rather they kept Langford, or alternately found someone else who could fill a 1-technique role for cheaper or more well-rounded. I've got a bit more positive take on Langford than you.

To an extent, but I'm not sure that's realistic at this point.

 

Im thinking Odrick will play DE on 1st and 2nd down then move inside next to Solia on passing downs, with Vernon coming in.

I really like Odrick in this set.

 

Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Vernon getting 1st and 2nd down snaps. I expect us to essentially be playing nickel as our base defense.

 

I could see that potentially myself, but vs running teams like the Texans for example....thats a horrible matchup. Unless Vernon is way better against the run than we all think.

Odrick, Starks, Solia, Wake is a solid front who can do well in all phases. This in my opinion is the strength of our football team (DL). Again if its me on passing downs and situational settings Odrick replaces Starks at DT and Vernon comes in on the edge.

 

If you're talking about the play that starts at the 1:00 minute mark here:

http://www.miamidolphins.com/media/...ghlights/11433628-2b5f-47e5-975e-990b9da21c53

That's actually the left tackle, Gabe Carimi, a 1st round pick two years ago. From that video, looks like Vernon lacks some counter moves and doesn't disengage very well. I think that's Jason Pinkston blocking him when he's against Pitt. However, the play against Notre Dame shows he's got a motor. He got pinned at the snap, but made the tackle well down field later on in the play. The only other video of seen of Vernon at length is against Florida State:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNezgFO87Hw

There's some good, some bad in that video. He hardly ever gets driven back by an O-lineman, but he struggles at times getting up the field. He gets knocked down once or twice, but he's back up in a flash, even made a tackle on one of the plays. I was a bit surprised to see him drop in coverage, on a short zone, as he doesn't look like the most fluid athlete in terms of change of direction. Sometimes it appears like he stops using his hands, which is a bit concerning.

I think a lot of the flaws he has are correctable through coaching, but I still think Miami's lacking that second pass-rusher opposite Cameron Wake. I'd tag that as my #1 need on my shopping list for 2013 at this point.

 

The best aspects of Olivier Vernon's game are his flexibility and his hands. He is a freakishly strong player for his size. That isn't to say he knocks people on their butts, he's still just a smaller dude after all, but he more than holds his own with hand strength that is freakish for his size. He also has the makings of the kind of flexibility you need to execute a pass rush.

The only problem is, he's not as explosive an athlete as you would think. He won't have a great athletic advantage in pass rush against NFL offensive tackles. He's also not a big player, so even though he's uncommonly strong, the possibilities on that front are still capped. As I've said for a while now, where I kind of imagine him is working the inside over a guard on pass rush downs a la Pernell McPhee or Wallace Gilberry. His freakish strong hands will help keep him from being overwhelmed by guards' strength, and he'll have a much wider athletic advantage over guards than he will tackles. I could also see him playing a Jarret Johnson type role as a linebacker.

When I'm looking at the 2013 NFL Draft's pass rushers...I just keep bumping into guys I have no choice but to like over Olivier Vernon, and that disturbs me a little bit. Between Bjoern Werner, James Gayle, Dion Jordan, Alex Okafor...and maybe even guys like Malliciah Goodman and Cornellius Carradine...I just see a bunch of guys that are showing things I wish I'd have seen from Olivier Vernon.