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The ultimate silver lining.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by djphinfan, Oct 19, 2021.

  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    TUA.

    Just wanted to start a thread about why I think he will get us through this mess.

    couple things real quick before I bring up the intangible part.

    2 things I've noticed about Tua.

    1) He doesn't compute pressure on critical down and distances, business as usual..The parker rep vrs the pats to seal the game, and the 4th and 2 to Hollins on that deep slant last sunday..you can seem him unfazed with a great release, with strength and follow thru...It's pure man. Like when you hit a beautiful 7 iron 180 yards.

    2) When Tua can plant his back ft and go one beat forward onto his right foot, he's deadly.When he can step up thru the traffic he sees it clearly and fires accurately. with velocity and good mechanics.


    You know what I love about the team around Tua being this bad.?

    If gives me great insight to his ceiling. Watching him operate with that ****show in front of him was a clear picture of what could be.Hi level stuff.

    Kid was done wrong last year, imo he was not ready in his heart to lead while the team was under Fitz's spell, but now, this is when Tua will shine the most, he has great leadership traits. I believe he is the type of guy that has so much respect for people, its got to come on his time and last year he didn't want it.

    I think we're in real good hands with him, and once we get a decent oline, i'm excited to watch the exceptional talent in his left arm put full display. I'm excited to watch him navigate the chaos happening around him to we can get that clear pic of his ceiling, its about the toughest task a young qb could be thrown into, if he pulls it off, the ceiling is real high:)
     
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  2. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Okay i lost even more hope after reading this thread. We are ****ed if thats our silver lining
     
    resnor likes this.
  3. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Do you really trust him to stay healthy in any season? All that is for naught if he’s doing that for 8-13 games a season.
     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think he showed good instincts in his last game to play smart when he took off.There was good timing on his slides, but of course your right if he's not on the field then it doesn't matter.

    I really am curious to see how he gets thru this, he wants that platform, there are many companies ready to pounce and he has his own style of play that he can define.I think we get a unique opp to see if he can't overcome all these obstacles.
     
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  5. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I like him, I think he’s got a good head on his shoulders and he definitely wants it. I just don’t trust him. Ever.
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Tua still needs to improve on his decision-making. You saw that in the last game where there was a stretch in the middle where he didn't play well because he made some stupid decisions. Either way, I was high on him when we took him, but said all along I'll let his performance decide whether I'll continue to like him. So far it's too small sample size, but I'm optimistic. We'll see. Anyway, it's really important for this franchise that we get Tua right. Imagine having to wait yet again to find a franchise QB!?!
     
  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    sounds cliche but he has a chance to have his 'started from the bottom now i'm here'' moment, ''win the crowd'' moment...media torn him down first and could build him right back up.

    like I said it's a lot to take on, and i'm gonna root for him to do it because, ahhh that's what I gotta do, got to keep going and moving ahead, plus, he seems like he might put his fame to good use.

    Lets go Tua.
     
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  8. Alan in England

    Alan in England Member

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    there will be no silver lining until Dan the Man is back at QB.
     
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  9. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I think being injury prone will derail his career. Much like Chad Pennington, he just won't be available enough to build a team around. That said, with a solid OL in front of him, an actual running game, and good receivers? He will have some really good games.
     
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  10. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I find his situation eerily similar to the RT situation.

    For years, I said that RT was nowhere near the top of our list of problems. People on this board saw him as inconsistent, and if you really crunched the numbers, it sure would feel this way. That being said, I always thought that he was actually very consistent.

    When RT was playing against teams that had weak pass rush, and I knew he could set, read a defense, and pass, he was consistently pretty good.

    When RT played a team with great pass rush, he was consistently bad.

    I really thought fixing the line would fix RT. The front office just always took pie in the sky approaches to doing this. When he went to Tennessee where they had a better line and better receivers, he was immediately fixed.

    Despite having an embarrassment of riches in terms of draft picks, our line has somehow gotten worse and our WR corps is marginally better.

    A lot of my evaluation of his is an "all things considered" evaluation. I think that he has undoubtedly looked so much better (when healthy).

    Just like Tannehill, I do think Tua needs to improve parts of his game. I do not think that he is a natural athlete. I think he has all of the tools to be an athlete, but it does not come naturally to him. He really, really wants to pass the ball, and it feels like tucking the ball and running it is simply not in his DNA. I really do think that he needs to work on this part of his game a lot because it feels like 3 times a game, we could move the chains and take free yardage, and we simply are just leaving these plays on the field.
     
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  11. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Tuas only big concern is durability and that's not going to change unless he stays healthy. Hopefully our line doesn't get him killed and makes him see ghosts...
     
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  12. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    You really have to wonder if this is just going to be cruel and cold fate of Dolphins fans repeating itself!

    With a Tua trade now seemingly very close and Tua being compared stylistically to Drew Brees coming out of college.

    Could he move on and thrive elsewhere?
    similar to Brees after we famously passed on him in free agency. I could see Tua haunting us for years.
     
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  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Waiting for denial of rumors by front office please
     
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  14. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    That won't happen. Didn't happen before. They won't set precedent. The most we'll get is that Tua is our QB.
     
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  15. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    By the way @djphinfan Thanks for the thread. Great perspective. What Tua will prove to be, he's good enough for now. The team have a ton of other issues to resolve before worrying about replacing him, especially with how next year's crop of rookie are looking. A solid, balanced rest of the team with Tua doesn't look half bad.
     
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  16. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think it really sets up for him to establish his presence and leadership.

    Interested to watch him take on the huge amount of adversity, after all, this is his moment and what he’s trained all his life for, for this very type of opportunity.
     
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  17. JIGGAJOE

    JIGGAJOE Active Member

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    I never wanted tua when it came draft time. Injury concerns and Alabama QB seem to struggle. Probably had something to do with playing on the best team every year in CFB.

    That being said. He is our QB now and I think it is wisest to give him his time to develop and prove if he is THE GUY.

    The team has to give him a decent OL just like any QB to fairly evaluate. Unless you are going to draft Lamar types, you have to get pass protection solidified.
     
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  18. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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  19. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    The sane Dolphins fans have been saying this exact thing for two years on this forum but are constantly retorted with "Tua suckz he's nev3r g0nna b good!".

    Maybe a prominent figure saying it will get them to calm down.
     
  20. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Tua sucks, but I don't think he is our franchise QB either. He was overhyped and overdrafted. There is a reason the team has been flirting with Watson for so long. People in the building are not impressed with Tua so far with what they've seen in practices and games. Even our receivers last year were putting out word to the media that they were not impressed with tua and preferred Fitzpatrick.

    I believe ultimately Tua can develop into a competent game manager type of QB if he is surrounded with talent, but he will never be an elite Franchise QB IMO.
     
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  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    EXACTLY.
     
  22. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Has anyone in the building said they're interested/flirting with Watson publicly? No.
     
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  23. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Because that always happens, that coaches and GMs say publicly that they don't trust their QB.
     
  24. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I keep comparing Tua to Drew Brees and I think a lot of the flack I get for that is because of what Drew Brees ended up accomplishing in his career. People seem to only see that for some reason. Maybe it's because they're too young? Those who have been watching football prior to the year 2000 might actually know what I'm talking about. Drew Brees was in a bad situation in San Diego his first two seasons as a starter. Go back and look at his numbers if you actually never got the chance to see him play during those first two seasons.
    2002
    Started all 16 games, 3,284 yards passing with a 60% rate, 17 TDs/16 INTs, 76.9 QBR, team goes 8-8. If Tua puts those numbers up on this team we would be calling for his head.

    2003
    Starts 11 games...gets injured, 2108 yards passing with a 57% rate, 11 TDs/15 INTs, 67.5 QBR, team goes 4-12. If Tua put those numbers up on this team we would perform a public execution on his behalf.

    Prior to the 2004 season the team drafts Phillip Rivers. Drew Brees looked like a busted pick/player and that's with the help of LaDanian Tomlinson who is arguably a top five all time great running back at his disposal. I only mention LT because a lot of people seem to think that an all pro workhorse back might be beneficial to a player like Tua (I personally am one of them). Point is, it's not like Brees didn't have help. He had David Boston, he had Curtis Conway, he had Antonio Gates. Gates didn't become elite until 2004, but my point is, Brees wasn't doing it all by himself. He just simply looked like a bust at the position.

    Enter the 2004 season, Brees somehow wins the job in camp, keeps the job, throws 27 TDs to 7 Ints, QBR skyrockets to 104 on the season and the team goes 11-5 on the year. Following that season he has by some standards...A down year due to a shoulder injury. Team isn't as good, they move on from him, he goes to Nawlins and Rivers becomes the guy for the Chargers, and the rest is history.

    I'm not comparing Tua to the Super Bowl winning, MVP winning, all time passing leader Drew Brees. I do compare their statures and style though and there are some similarities. What I am comparing is their trajectories. Brees had a lot of skill in the beginning of his career, it just took him some time to put it together. I can see the same skill with Tua and I can see the same type of outcome. I can see us getting impatient and making a stupid knee jerk move and him going elsewhere and becoming a great quarterback. I don't want this to happen. I don't want anything to do with Deshaun Watson. If people choose to hate Tua, then I can't change that, but it would be incredibly stupid to give up on him this early in his career. Again, it goes back to Brees. He was labeled and called everything that Tua has been called to date. I'm guilty of smack talking the guy too this year, but I'm also willing to admit that it was more reactionary as opposed to how I truly feel about him. We'll see how things go tomorrow, but don't be surprised if he has his best game yet as a pro. I'm telling you, he's on his way. The injury stuff will pass.
     
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  25. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for making my point.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    When you adjust stats for era those numbers aren't that bad. In fact, the ratings are somewhat similar to Tua's. Without bothering you with z-scores which is the proper way to adjust, just look at how passing stats have changed over time:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

    League average passer rating in 2002 was 80.4 and in 2003 it was 78.3, while in 2020 it was 93.6 and so far in 2021 it's 95.1. That's like a 15 point difference over 20 years. So that 76.9 from Brees is more akin to a 92 today, and that 67.5 more like a 82.5 today. Average it out and it's almost exactly where Tua is right now at 87. So no, there wouldn't be a "public execution" using era-adjusted Brees numbers.

    Anyway, there's another QB that started off real bad (and was a lefty) but ended up great: Steve Young.

    Given that passing stats tend to plateau from year 3-4, I just want to see Tua end up at least above average this year. Of course that average is 95.1 right now and he's at 86.7 (with really small sample size). Still optimistic he'll make it.
     
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  27. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Aside from their height and accuracy, there eis
    Aside from their height and accuracy, there is nothing else that is comparable between Brees and tua. Brees had a significantly stronger arm, and a more stout build than Tua. His football IQ was also great, whereas Tua's wonderlick score, difficulty learning the play book, and his tendency to miss reads suggest otherwise.

    Again, I don't think Tua will be terrible, he can turn into a competent starter, but will he turn into a HOFer like Brees? Definitely not.
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Wonderlic isn't a good predictor of greatness. Ryan Fitzpatrick had one of the highest scores ever and Marino one of the lowest ever (close to Tua's). Same with arm strength. Tons of QB's with great arm strength that went nowhere. Yet Montana (and also Young too) who had relatively weak arms were some of the best QB's ever. And not everyone starts off fast — this includes learning how to read defenses.

    No one can accurately predict (on a consistent basis) who will be great in the NFL after just one season. We just have to wait and see. So let's wait and see with Tua.
     
  29. Kud_II

    Kud_II Wtf is this curse you Gave me Lord? Club Member

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    Tua's ceiling is average. I do not know what you are seeing. Yes he's decent in the pocket, that's about all he has going for him.

    He has a weak arm for anything beyond 20 yards, not that we see much of it, I imagine because the coaching staff has seen too many blunders in practice. His accuracy suffers as a result. His confidence to throw anything to stretch the field is low as a result of his noodle arm. That includes more dangerous throws

    And the kicker is... all this was known prior to the draft and our beyond moronic GM still picked him over Herb.

    If you have to formulate your offensive scheme to fit around the QB, it's a bad sign. I feel like a big reason we gave up 2 first rounders for Jaylen Waddle was to help boost Tua. All of it is just shameful. There's no silver lining, there's no light at the end of the tunnel.

    There's a bad franchise with bad management, that refuses to change. There's an owner who doesn't 'get it.' When 95% of the fans (especially Dolfans, who have been incompetent fanboy homers.. many of whom who are finally on the same page as us realists.. finally)

    And the owner must be aware of this, and yet he does nothing to even attempt to right the ship. We're screwed for years. If Grier retains his job I may not even watch the Fins next year for the first time in 25 years. I still remember sitting through every game of 1-15. And I'll probably sit through every one of this year. Difference is, in the 07-08 era, we were at least acknowledging failure, and trying to improve.

    I'm starting to really believe that Ross does not care if the Dolphins ever succeed. He's a dud owner, the sad part is an empty stadium will not hurt his wallet. The NFL is being devoured by it's own economic model, where losing doesn't matter, thus there is no incentive for improvement.
     
  30. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're making things up, or tricking yourself. How does Brees have a stouter build than Tua, who out wieghed him before adding muscle last off season? Also, Tua's arm strength is very comparable this year. His velocity has increased as his hip has healed. You are correct that Tua hasn't shown close to Brees ability to read or manipulate defenses, play mistake free, or lead. Which are the things that made Brees HoF. He also hasn't played 16 games yet. Brees took sometime too. There was a reason the Chargers picked a QB 1st overall 2 years into his career. Nobody really knows what Tua will end up as, but his last game was good, so...
     
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  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm sorry, but I just didn't see that. There are several video breakdown reviews of all Tua's throws this season. Just watch the Jax game in London- he was making fast reads going all the way through his progressions and getting the ball out very fast. He did have the one INT on a horrible pass that didn't have enough velocity, and I think a lot of people will look at one throw and ignore the 40 others.

    Call me crazy, but I saw a clear franchise QB last week in Jacksonville. Tua is so much more ahead of Tannehill at the 12-start mark and he has so much working against him that RT didn't have (injury, all starting receivers out, no line to speak of, etc.). Maybe Tua is never an elite QB but I don't understand how anyone who actually watches film can say he's not playing really, really well at this point in his career.

    If this is his baseline play and he only marginally gets better the next couple of seasons, then I think he's a top-10 quarterback.
     
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  32. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Can't make what you don't have.
     
  33. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    That's not the point I was making. Go back and read my entire post again please. I was saying that Brees basically sucked his first two years as a starter. Chargers were 8-8, and 4-12 his first two seasons. He was thought of as a bust for basically the same reasons Tua has been labeled one, they drafted Rivers, Brees got it together, the rest is history. I'm not gonna continue this with you. I strongly urge you to please....Read it again, because the point flew right over your head like an errant Tua pass in the heat of pressure.
    I mean...Gee???!!!! If they didn't all but give up on him and consider him a bust, then why the HELL did they draft Rivers with a top five pick? At this point I'm just going to continue repeating myself. I swear, some of you simply just do not read nor do you comprehend. So I'll just keep repeating myself. Be patient.
     
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  34. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Marino had a low wonderlik, but his physical traits, great size, a rocket arm with accuracy, great vision, pocket presence, great competitiveness and intangibles were way better than Tua's. And Marino's low wonderlik did show up in his play at times, he was never an X and O QB and got by mostly on his natural ability. Tua doesn't have that same natural ability.

    A guy like Montana on the other hand didn't have the physical traits Marino had, but he made up for it with great football IQ.

    Tua doesn't have the physical talent and intangibles Marino had, while also not having the mental capability Montana and Young had.
     
  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Let’s see if the young man can rally the entire team around him.
     
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  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Like I thought, He’s winning over his teammates and will win the crowd gladiator style, in doing so he’s going to expose these fools for trying to derail his career to get what they want.

    Considering what he is dealing with as far as support, the last two weeks are very advanced for someone in his 13 th game as a pro..
     
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  37. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    Some interesting stats and evals coming in on Tua where he's looking pretty good. That silver lining is looking more and more legit.



     
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  38. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Dan's probably like: Better leave Kid!
     
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  39. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    "In his two games since returning from injury, Tagovailoa has completed 74.7 percent of his passes for 620 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. The turnovers have come in key moments, but Tagovailoa has rebounded well in both games, including giving the Dolphins the lead late against Atlanta.

    One caveat with his impressive performances is that they have come against two of the three least-efficient pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders. Sunday’s road game against the Buffalo Bills will be a revealing litmus test for him. Buffalo has the most efficient pass defense in the NFL and is allowing the fewest passing yards per game (180.5).

    “Never gets too high, never gets too low,” tight end Mike Gesicki of Tagovailoa. “He is confident. He knows what he is supposed to do. He goes out there and he executes at a high level, and I can’t say enough good things about him. I love playing with him and love having him back there, and bounced back great. Played a hell of a game. Played tough. You can go on and on.”"

    https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article255259601.html
     
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  40. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I think this whole analysis ignores the fact that the majority of his passes are short and quick high percentage throws. He is not making the hard throws down field, and is getting the ball out quickly which masks our oline issues.
     
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