Draft season is upon us, and things are heating up with the big night just three weeks away. Since my last mock, Kyler Murray has risen to the consensus No. 1 overall selection, blue-chip college 'ballers such as Derrick Brown, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Raekwon Davis have pulled out of the draft, and many teams have retooled via free agency. The end result is a much (much) different looking projection.

It's been four months in the making, but here it is: V2, complete with three rounds. The next and final edition will come draft night, April 25th. It will include three mock rounds, NFL-readiness/potential grades and comparisons for all 1st round draftees, as well as projections for every Miami selection.

You can find the current projection attached to this post in PDF format.

Note: I am usually not a fan of projecting trades; it only obscures the projection by creating more potentialities. However, as of the time of this writing, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the top three QB's (Murray, Haskins, and Lock) will be drafted 1, 2, and 3, respectively, with the former two QB's being acquired via trade. I decided to project these trades and an additional one between Atlanta and Detroit. They are detailed here.

Enjoy. Let me know your thoughts.

Trade 1: New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers
The Giants have tried to douse the flames of their interest for Dwayne Haskins with obscure media statements, mentioning that he doesn't "fit" their team, and that they aren't even "doing a lot of work on him." It's a valiant attempt at a smokescreen by Gettleman (Giants GM) and Co., but it simply isn't true. Haskins is coveted by New York, as he does in fact fit their archetype at the position; New York, rightfully so, is attempting to save the 1st-round selection it gained in the OBJ trade by avoiding a trade-up scenario. Unfortunately for them, Mike Mayock has convinced everybody and their mothers that if Haskins is available at No. 4, he'll be the pick (he wouldn't be), and as such, New York will end up selling house to land their future franchise QB. The trade makes sense for the '9ers, too, as none of the elite defensive talent (Quinnen Williams, Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Ed Oliver) fill needs for this squad. The popular projection had been Bosa until San Francisco signed Dee Ford; now, with Ford, Solomon Thomas, Arik Armstead, and DeForest Buckner manning the defensive line, there's no reason not to move down, gather more picks, and address other areas of weakness such as WR, OL, S, CB.

Trade 2: Washington Redskins, New York Jets
The reason the Giants will be forced to trade to No. 2 rather than No. 3 is because the Redskins will be prepared to out-offer them for the third selection, as they, too, covet Haskins. Gettleman will likely be forced to strike a deal at No. 2, leaving the Redskins to target Drew Lock. Lock, notably, isn't just a consolation prize; he has steadily risen on most draft boards, and of late, there's been talk of him going ahead of Haskins. His phenomenal pro-day and high ceiling have many thinking that he can be the next Patrick Mahomes--or, at the very least, produce early for a franchise. If Washington misses out on Haskins, they will have to leap the Raiders (who, again, have done a nice job of convincing everyone that they are in the QB market), and the Jets happen to be the perfect trade partner. Mike Maccagnan, the Jets' GM, holds just 6 selections in this April's draft--none in the 2nd round--with needs present across the board. C, WR, TE, EDGE, DL, and CB all persist as massive voids that must be filled if they're going to compete this season. As such, I imagine they will be in a hurry to field calls on Thursday night.

Trade 3: Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions
Atlanta has shown a tremendous amount of interest in Ed Oliver throughout the pre-draft process. So much so, it would almost be a shock if they didn't make a move to land him. Oliver, who's expected to have a floor of Buffalo at No. 9, would fill a monumental need for a Falcons team that is desperate for IDL help and must find a way to electrify their pass-rush. Further, Altanta is very much in "win-now" mode, though their Super Bowl window isn't as open as some may lead you to believe. In turn, this lends credence to the thought that they are prepared to go all-in on the upcoming NFL season, even if it means trading into the top 10. I don't think they will hesitate to sacrifice a large amount of capital for a potentially generational player, especially if they believe the move will push their franchise over the top and back into playoff contention. On the flipside, Detroit is rumored to be searching for a trade-down option, having expressed interest in mid-1st options such as T.J. Hockenson, Greedy Williams, and Byron Murphy. Of note, the Chargers are reportedly all over Oliver as well; be on the lookout for a bidding war between these two teams, and potentially a king's ransom for Matt Patricia and his Lions.

 

For those that aren't interested in downloading the PDF files, I've written out each projection below (but the PDF's are prettier).

Round 1
1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma, 5'10" 207 lbs

2*. New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State, 6'3" 231 lbs

3*. Washington Redskins: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri, 6'4" 228 lbs

4. Oakland Raiders: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State, 6'4" 266 lbs

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quinnen Williams, DL3T, Alabama, 6'3" 303 lbs

6. San Francisco 49ers: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky, 6'5" 262 lbs

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida, 6'5" 312 lbs

8*. Atlanta Falcons: Ed Oliver, DL3T, Houston, 6'2" 287 lbs

9. Buffalo Bills: D.K. Metcalf, WRF, Ole Miss, 6'3" 228 lbs

10. Denver Broncos: Devin White, ILB, LSU, 6'0" 237 lbs

11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan, 5'11" 234 lbs

12. Green Bay Packers: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa, 6'5" 251 lbs

13. Miami Dolphins: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama, 6'4" 302 lbs

14*. Detroit Lions: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU, 6'2" 185 lbs

15*. New York Jets: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson, 6'4" 264 lbs

16. Carolina Panthers: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State, 6'6" 260 lbs

17*. San Francisco 49ers: A.J. Brown, WRF, Ole Miss, 6'0" 226 lbs

18. Minnesota Vikings: Chris Lindstrom, OG, Boston College, 6'4" 308 lbs

19. Tennessee Titans: Rashan Gary, DL5T, Michigan, 6'4" 277 lbs

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington, 5'11 190 lbs

21. Seattle Seahawks: Parris Campbell, WRF, Ohio State, 6'0" 205 lbs

22. Baltimore Ravens: Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State, 6'5" 249 lbs

23. Houston Texans: Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss, 6'5" 310 lbs

24. Oakland Raiders: Cody Ford, OG, Oklahoma, 6'4" 329 lbs

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Josh Jacobs, RBF, Alabama, 5'10", 220 lbs

26. Indianapolis Colts: Jeffery Simmons, DL3T, Mississippi State, 6'4" 301 lbs

27. Oakland Raiders: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa, 6'4", 249 lbs

28. Los Angeles Chargers: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State, 6'5" 315 lbs

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama, 6'1" 195 lbs

30. Green Bay Packers: Dalton Risner, OG, Kansas State, 6'5" 312 lbs

31. Los Angeles Rams: Christian Wilkins, DL3T, Clemson, 6'3" 315 lbs

32. New England Patriots: Zach Allen, DL5T, Boston College, 6'4", 281 lbs

Round 2
33. Arizona Cardinals: Garrett Bradbury, OC , North Carolina State, 6'3" 306 lbs

34. Indianapolis Colts: Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State, 5'11" 205 lbs

35. Oakland Raiders: Marquise Brown, WRS, Oklahoma, 5'9" 166 lbs

36. San Francisco 49ers: Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia, 6'0" 205 lbs

37. New York Giants: Dexter Lawrence, DL1T, Clemson, 6'4" 342 lbs

38. Jacksonville Jaguars: Damien Harris, RBF, Alabama, 5'10" 216 lbs

39. Tampa Bay Bucanneers: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida, 5'11" 210 lbs

40. Buffalo Bills: Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington, 6'7" 312 lbs

41. Denver Broncos: Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama, 6'2" 242 lbs

42. Cincinnnati Bengals: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke, 6'5" 221 lbs

43. Detroit Lions: Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware, 6'0",206 lbs

44. Green Bay Packers: Joe Giles-Harris, ILB, Duke, 6'2" 234 lbs

45*. Detroit Lions: Oshane Ximines, EDGE, Old Dominion, 6'3" 253 lbs

46*. New York Jets: Erik McCoy, OC, Texas A&M, 6'4" 303 lbs

47. Carolina Panthers: Taylor Rapp, S, Washington, 6'0" 208 lbs

48. Miami Dolphins: Chase Winovich, EDGE, Michigan, 6'3" 256 lbs

49. Cleveland Browns: Dre'Mont Jones, DL3T, Ohio State, 6'3" 281 lbs

50. Minnesota Vikings: Mack Wilson, ILB, Alabama, 6'1" 240 lbs

51. Tennessee Titans: Hakeem Butler, WRF, Iowa State, 6'5" 227 lbs

52. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cameron Smith, ILB, USC, 6'2" 238 lbs

53. Philadelphia Eagles: Tytus Howard, OT, Arizona, 6'5" 322 lbs

54. Houston Texans : DeAndre Baker, CB, Georgia, 5'11" 193 lbs

55. Houston Texans : Darrell Henderson, RBF, Memphis, 5'8" 208 lbs

56. New England Patriots: Kaden Smith, TE, Stanford, 6'5" 255 lbs

57. Philadelphia Eagles: Jordan Brailford, EDGE, Oklahoma State, 6'3" 252 lbs

58. Dallas Cowboys: Dawson Knox, TE, Mississippi, 6'4" 254 lbs

59. Indianapolis Colts: N'Keal Harry, WRF, Arizona State, 6'2" 228 lbs

60. Los Angeles Chargers: Jerry Tillery, DL1T, Notre Dame, 6'6" 295 lbs

61. Kansas City Chiefs: Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida, 6'3" 258 lbs

62. New Orleans Saints: Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE, Louisiana Tech, 6'5" 271 lbs

63. Kansas City Chiefs: David Montgomery, RBF, Iowa State, 5'10" 222 lbs

64. New England Patriots: Miles Boykin, WRF, Notre Dame, 6'4" 220 lbs

Round 3
65. Arizona Cardinals: Jalen Jelks, EDGE, Oregon, 6'5" 256 lbs

66. Pittsburgh Steelers: Andy Isabella, WRS, Massachusetts, 5'9" 188 lbs

67. San Francisco 49ers: Chase Hansen, OLB, Utah, 6'3" 222 lbs

68. New York Jets: Yodny Cajuste, OT, West Virginia, 6'5" 312 lbs

69. Jacksonville Jaguars: P.J. Johnson, DL1T, Arizona, 6'4" 335 lbs

70. Tampa Bay Bucanneers: Chris Slayton, DL3T, Syracuse 6'4" 307 lbs

71. Denver Broncos: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple, 6'0" 192 lbs

72. Cincinnnati Bengals: Josh Oliver, TE, San Jose State, 6'5" 249 lbs

73. New England Patriots: Tre Lamar, ILB, Clemson, 6'3" 253 lbs

74. Buffalo Bills: Devin Singletary, RBF, Florida Atlantic, 5'7" 203 lbs

75. Green Bay Packers: Lukas Denis, S, Boston College, 5'11" 190 lbs

76. Washington Redskins: Tyler Roemer, OT, San Diego State, 6'6" 312 lbs

77. Carolina Panthers: Elgton Jenkins, OC, Mississippi State, 6'4" 310 lbs

78. Miami Dolphins: L.J. Collier, DL5T, TCU, 6'2" 283 lbs

79. Atlanta Falcons: Joejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt, 6'4" 211 lbs

80. Cleveland Browns: Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson, 6'1" 199 lbs

81. Minnesota Vikings: Trey Pipkins, OT, Sioux Falls, 6'6" 309 lbs

82. Tennessee Titans: Jamel Dean, CB, Auburn, 6'1" 206 lbs

83. Pittsburgh Steelers: Charles Omenihu, DL5T, Texas, 6'5" 280 lbs

84. Seattle Seahawks: Greg Gaines, DL1T, Washington, 6'1" 312 lbs

85. Baltimore Ravens: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WRF, Stanford, 6'2" 225 lbs

86. Houston Texans: Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M, 6'4" 251 lbs

87. Chicago Bears: Miles Sanders, RBF, Penn State, 5'11" 211 lbs

88. Detroit Lions: Drew Sample, TE, Washington, 6'5" 255 lbs

89. Indianapolis Colts: Joe Jackson, EDGE, Miami, 6'4" 275 lbs

90. Dallas Cowboys: Terrill Hanks, OLB, New Mexico State, 6'2" 242 lbs

91. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Layne, CB, Michigan State, 6'2" 192 lbs

92. Kansas City Chiefs: Khalen Saunders, DL1T, Western Illinois, 6'0" 324 lbs

93. New York Jets: Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State, 6'2" 205 lbs

94. Los Angeles Rams: Germaine Pratt, ILB, North Carolina State, 6'2" 240 lbs

95. New York Giants: Bobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma, 6'4" 312 lbs

96. Washington Redskins: David Sills, WRF, West Virginia, 6'3" 211 lbs

97. New England Patriots: Ryan Finley, QB, North Carolina State, 6'4" 213 lbs

98. Jacksonville Jaguars: Connor McGovern, OG, Penn State, 6'5" 308 lbs

99. Los Angeles Rams: David Edwards, OT, Wisconsin, 6'6" 308 lbs

100. Carolina Panthers: Deebo Samuel, WRF, South Carolina, 5'11" 214 lbs

101. New England Patriots: Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame, 5'11" 195 lbs

102. Baltimore Ravens: Olisaemeka Udo, OG, Elon, 6'5" 323 lbs

 

Thanks, I enjoy doing it.

Why wouldn't you approve? It's not a sexy draft for Miami by any means, but I think it lays a foundation for Flores and Grier to build on.

I really like Jonah Williams; reminds me of Joe Thomas.

 

These are fair critiques. However, I think you're selling Williams short; he has quite a bit more in common with Thomas than just his short arms. His work ethic, focus on technique over brute force, and elite lateral quickness all draw nice comparisons. Overall, I agree that he isn't as athletically gifted as Thomas, and I also don't expect him to be as good of a tackle as Thomas was. However, I also think Williams is the safest selection in the draft. While he may not end up a generational player, I feel he's going to be a steady and consistent presence for a long, long time for whoever drafts him.

I do see your point on James; it feels like a step backwards allowing him to walk, only to select his replacement at No. 13. It isn't ideal. I wasn't a fan of letting him go in the first place, but either way, we still have a massive void to fill at RT, and Williams fits the archetype Miami is supposedly looking for. Smart, tough, reliable.

On Butler, I haven't fully evaluated him yet. From what I've read, there's a lot of discrepancy in regard to his draft stock. Some evaluators say he's the best WR in the class, while others say he's on par with 2nd/3rd round guys like Deebo Samuel, Riley Ridley, and J.J. A-W. I need to do more research on him, but no doubt, he's an interesting prospect.

 

Me too. I have a slight hunch that Miami will take Elgton Jenkins, but I'm not sold. Didn't Grier/Flores say that Kilgore is safe for 2019? I don't remember.

If so, they probably wouldn't take a C very high. We'll see!

 

Final version coming tonight. Things are getting wild out here, I'm struggling to keep up.

Notable Rumors/Thoughts:

• Arizona to select Nick Bosa over Kyler Murray (I don't believe this yet)
• Washington to trade up for Daniel Jones (I think they'll trade up, but not for Jones)
• Oakland to make a surprise pick at No. 4 (Gary would qualify as a shock at No. 4, and he fills a massive void at EDGE that Quinnen Williams/Ed Oliver wouldn't)
• Giants to take Daniel Jones at No. 6 (I'm leaning towards trusting this one)
• Atlanta to jump into the top ten for Ed Oliver (I suggested this in my V2 mock--it's likely happening)
• Denver still a mystery, but I've got a gut feeling they're getting Lock
• Houston to trade up for a tackle (I think they'll try; Dillard and Williams have usurped Jawaan Taylor)
• Speaking of Taylor, he's about to pull a Laremy Tunsil on draft night in the wake of numerous medical red flags
• Devin White & Josh Allen might see slides into the low teens with QB's and OT's going earlier than expected

This draft is easily the most difficult one I've ever tried to project. Get your popcorn ready.