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Things coming together at last for gase...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by hitman8, Dec 12, 2017.

  1. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    Ajayi has been in 36 (19 starts) games and Drake has been in 29 (4 starts)

    Ajayi- 491 rushes and 54 receptions

    Drake- 123 and 32


    I think Drake has a big enough sample size, however, I can't really be sure. I bet @cbrad could tell us if it's enough...
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    We can just use a 2-sample t-test for unequal sample sizes to look at how likely it is two distributions come from the same source (running back) because that test works for any two sample sizes. Obviously the smaller the sample size the higher the probability the data could come from any distribution.

    OK, so the probabilities listed below tell you basically how "similar" the two distributions are. The smaller the probability, the more likely the two sets of data (distributions of yards gained for every rushing attempt) come from different RB's.

    Ajayi entire career vs. Drake entire career = 83.3%
    Ajayi 2016 vs. Ajayi in Miami 2017 = 4.7%
    Ajayi all of 2017 vs. Drake = 58.7%
    Ajayi in Miami 2017 vs. Drake = 13.9%
    Ajayi in Miami 2017 vs. Ajayi in Philly 2017 = 0.7%
    Ajayi in Philly 2017 vs. Drake = 30.1%

    Kinda interesting exercise.. so basically this shows that the biggest differences and the only two that are "statistically significant" are 2016 Ajayi in Miami vs. 2017 Ajayi in Miami, and 2017 Ajayi in Miami vs. Ajayi in Philly. So just based on the stats, something changed with Ajayi from last year to this year, and something changed this year when he went to Philly, both of which more or less make sense.

    The other low probability is Ajayi in Miami 2017 vs. Drake at 13.9%.

    So I guess this more or less jibes with what you see.
     
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  3. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    So basically there is an 83.3% chance that Drake has enough of a sample size in order to make a good comparison to Ajayi?
     
  4. Rickysabeast

    Rickysabeast Royale With Cheese

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    I wanted to read and understand this. I appreciate the work that went into it. However, my eyes glazed over like frosted donuts by the third paragraph. Just me. My cerebral capabilities have been depleted.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No it means that if you compare the entire body of work for Ajayi and Drake (only rushing, not receiving), their distributions are highly similar in that there's an 83.3% chance those distributions would come from the same RB.

    In other words, the big difference in production (not style) is due to something that happened to Ajayi while in Miami THIS year (because that's where the probabilities are small). That's the hypothesis that fits with all the data .
     
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  6. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    All I really want to know right now is...

    WHO THE HECK ARE YOU AND WHAT HAVE YOU DONE WITH HITMAN8?!?
     
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  7. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
  8. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Ajayi has a whole 1,500 yard season worth of work, including three 200+ yards games. Call me when drake achieves something similar or better. I love drake by the way, he is a great talent and a lot faster than ajayi, but to try and act like ajayi sucks and Drake is so much better than him is ludicrous.
     
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  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nobody said Ajayi sucks...they simply said that Drake is the better RB for the Dolphins in 2017. Folks love to jump to conclusions here and either say someone is awesome or horrible, and they forget that there's about 100,000 levels of ability between the two.
     
  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Grant had three or four really clutch catches last night and I remember him dropping two (a screen and the bomb)? I was beside myself that he didn't haul in that deep TD pass because that was the dagger that ended the game. I was pretty sure we'd win anyway but with the Pats, you just never know. So that drop really bothered me but it was one dropped pass.

    Speaking of which, I think Parker is starting to grow on me a little. He did drop two or three as well last night and I cussed the TV every time, but he also had several scheme plays to try and get him in space. Parker had a long TD on that little slant over the middle if it wasn't pass interference....it was wide open field all the way. So while I'm still not impressed with him, it's good to see him playing better and getting a few more chances. When he does manage to catch the ball in space, he's very dynamic.
     
  11. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    That is not much. There are a lot of one season flash in the pan running backs. I am not saying Ajayi is one, however, to say Ajayi has made it in the NFL is still a stretch. He has yet to be a starter an entire season.
     
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  12. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Well that is much more than what Drake has done so far. It is a mistake to diminish either one of them. They are both very good backs, just a little different in their style of running but both very good none the less. We were lucky to have them both on our team. The problem with the running game has never been the running backs, it has been bad oline play, predictable playcalling and the fact that our oline coach and running game coordinator was a cokehead.

    None of these things were ajayi's fault. Since ajayi left gase has started to allow audibles so the QB can read the defense and not have us run into stacked fronts anymore, we also got a new oline coach who is doing a better job.

    Those are the reasons why our running game is improving and not ajayi's lack of talent.
     
  13. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Disagree.

    A big reason our running game and offense as a whole was not living up to its potential was Ajayi. He wasn' versatile enough and it limited the the types of plays we could run. Along with the fact that Ajayi pouted and complained whenever things didn't happen the way he wanted them to, which damaged team morale.

    No one is arguing Drake is purely better than Ajayi, you can't just compare them in a vacuum like that. What we are arguing is that Drake + Dolphins THIS SEASON >> Ajayi + Dolphins THIS SEASON. Surely you can see this though, right?
     
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  14. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    I disagree with most of this. Ajayi wasn't following the play. And Cutler has been allowed to audible the entire season. The predictable play calling has all but disappeared since Ajayi left.

    The o-line/cokehead thing is true.

    Ajayi is a good RB, but his head got too big and he became his own downfall here so he was in fact the problem.
     
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2017
  15. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    That's not true. Ajayi limited play calling. That is fact....you can actually see it.
     
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  16. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I am not trying to diminish Ajayi, however, my point is he hasn't done much more than Drake at this point. If both of their careers ended tomorrow, neither would be remembered much in the future. Ajayi would be a blip of a guy who had a good stretch in 2016, but that is about it.

    IMO, Ajayi made his own bed. He did not run well during the first half of this season. He turned too many 2 yard runs into 0 yard runs by trying to break it big. He needed to run harder and to run smarter. He was one of the reasons Miami's offense was so terrible in the first half of this season.
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Ajayi will still be remembered by Dolphin fans because he's the only Dolphin to have 3 200+ yard rushing games. So from a purely historical perspective, ignoring which RB is better for us now or going forward, Ajayi has the edge.
     
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  18. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Yea, but that edge is not that big.
     
  19. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Drake was still on the team when ajayi was here, there was no reason why we couldn't use him more as a receiving threat even if the ajayi was the starter and getting most of the carries. It was gase's fault for not using the personnel available to him appropriately according to their strengths. Gase is too rigid in his system trying to get guys to conform to it instead of adjusting it to their strengths.

    Same thing with grant, why was grant not incorporated more successfully into the offense earlier in the season? Are you going to blame that on ajayi as well? No, it's just gase finally making the necessary adjustments in terms of audibles, improved playcalling, and improved practice reps and coaching techniques. Acting like Ajayi is the reason why this offense was not working is ridiculous.
     
  20. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    Gase did adjust to Ajayi's strengths. That's why the offense was so predictable. There's more to winning and team chemistry than just adapting to your players all the time.
     
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  21. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Cutler was not doing audibles when Ajayi was here. It was only after Ajayi left that I saw first Moore and then Cutler doing audibles and making adjustments at the line. Anybody who has been watching the games all year could clearly see that there were no audibles being made at the line earlier in the year. That in my opinion is one of the biggest reasons this offense has turned around.

    We are no longer running it into 8 and 9 man fronts and we are taking more shots downfield and running more varied routes across the middle of the field. We were not doing any of these things earlier in the season.
     
  22. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    No he did not, Ajayi is an outside zone runner, gase ran mostly inside zone, and continuously running into 8 and 9 man fronts is not adjusting to anybody's strengths, it's just stupid. Gase has gotten smarter in his playcalling and preparation, hence the offense has improved.
     
  23. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    Once again, you're 100% wrong.

    "(An obvious follow up. How much ability to change calls at the line do you have at this time in this offense?) – “We’ve got all kinds of stuff. I mean (Head Coach) Adam (Gase) has been around a while and worked with a lot of different quarterbacks. We’ve got straight audibles, we’ve got check with me’s, we’ve got run/pass options, we’ve got run-around options, we’ve got pass-pass options, we have some plays that are just call and run it. We’ve got it all. Obviously we’re not using it right though, or we need to execute better – one of the two.”

    Wednesday, October 4, 2017 (Just so you know, Ajayi left Miami the 1st week of November)

    http://media.miamidolphins.com/transcripts/jay-cutler-october-4-2017/
     
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  24. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    LMAO!! You just have no ability to admit when you're wrong. This post is nearly all fabrication on your part. From about Ajayi's 2nd or 3rd start LAST SEASON Gase started implementing a majority of outside zone running plays.
     
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  25. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    While ajayi was here this season we ran mostly inside zone. I forgot where I saw the statistic on it but it was something like 53% of our running plays were inside zone. Either way the bigger problem was continuously running into stacked fronts and being predictable. Something gase did not stop doing until after Ajayi was traded.
     
  26. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Who was this cutler? I don't care what he says was available, for whatever reason they were simply not doing it earlier in the season. I mean do you watch the games? It is very easy to see when the QB is calling an audible at the line. It is happening quite often last few games but was not happening earlier in the season.
     
  27. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Dude, you are wrong. 100% wrong. The quote absolutely proves you are wrong. Nothing wrong with that at all. The fact that you still double down on being right when you are not is troubling. So believe what the ACTUAL QB says or your lying eyes.
     
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  28. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I believe my eyes over what someone says 100% of the time. You don't know if he answered that way in order to not make gase look bad. They are buddies after all. Fact is I did not see cutler doing audibles at the line earlier in the season. He is doing it quite often now. Moore also did it in his last start. Go watch the first 6 or 7 games of the season and point out to me where the audibles were. I have the games on DVR and have watched the games multiple times I did not see audibles earlier on.
     
  29. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Hitman, more than just the QB says they audible. No reason for conspiracy theories. I have seen it with my own two eyes watching the games. Silly that you think it is more realistic that they are lying than the QB can audible.....Plenty to find fault with this year, we just don't have to make some of the reasons up. And this one is obviously wrong and made up.
     
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  30. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Do you believe the Illuminati perpetuates the lie of a globe shaped Earth and that they don't want us to know the Mandela effect is real...too?
     
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  31. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    yes
     
  32. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    Just because Cutler doesn't audible on a certain play doesn't mean he wasn't allowed to audible on that same play. He's been allowed to audible the entire season...
     
  33. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Or any plays, it just did not happen earlier in the season. Whether he was allowed to or not I can't say for sure. All I know is he wasn't doing it before but he is doing it now. Whether that was because he wasn't allowed to or because he just wasn't comfortable doing it for some reason I don't know.
     
  34. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Ok, so i was asking hitman a question and you answered.

    Are you going to report me for pointing that out?
     
  35. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    No I don't believe any of that stuff, but I know an audible when I see one, and they were not happening earlier in the season.
     
  36. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    As much as you'd like to believe this, dirtylandry is not another account of mine. I only have one account, hitman8, same one I have always had.
     
  37. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

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    And our starting right tackle. Also, although it was a trade and Drake played great, we lost our starting RB and because of that and an injury we are paper thin at that important position, yet we managed it. I see 2 sides of it. Yes they are injured seriously but so are we. Yet all you heard during the game was how injured the patriots were, hardly a word about the Dolphins. That was very telling to me.
     
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  38. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Ahhhh. Incredible counter point. i'm convinced.
     
  39. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    I wish Peyton could hear that nonsense. Gase was even taking play call suggestions from Ajayi, catered the entire offense to him. It was well documented that Gase had never ran the ball so much before, and it was awkward for him. Now Ajayi is gone and it seems he's found new ways to elevate Drake.
     
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  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think Drake occasionally at WR is more about Parker struggling than it is Ajayi. But then again, they saw an opportunity in no-huddle and split him out....that wasn't an option with Ajayi on the field. That was Adam Gase's play as much as it was Drake and Cutler...which is the exact opposite of what you're claiming.

    Gase only gained those kinds of options because he got rid of Ajayi, so you're basically talking in circles here. If you want a more flexible Gase then you're agreeing that the better all-purpose back needs to be on the field. And that means you're complimenting Gase for realizing that....while trying to bash him at the same time.

    The same goes for your Grant argument- we needed change and Gase changed, then we blew out two teams. I'm confused on how that's a bad thing for a Dolphins fan.
     
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