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This Team is Chronically Sick - Don't expect winning until we're cured.

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Oct 3, 2021.

  1. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    It's not a player issue, although the O line is young and inexperienced. We desperately lack an alpha running back on this roster and the pursuit of a franchise QB continues to be extremely elusive and frustrating. We are a young team though and I still think Tua deserves more time. The way things are looking, he may be our guy next year too whether people like that or not. The sky is falling on the season, but I don't think it's over just yet. We'll be 1-4 when Tua does return, so we'll go from there. I say this again...It's not the players, it's internal, it's the way things are being run, the shuffling of offensive coordinators. How is Tua supposed to develop if he doesn't have any consistency with a coordinator? They did the same thing to Tannehill.
    The youth movement on the O line is going to be a tough one all year long. Holy crap did we jump the gun on that? What was the plan? Get them going as soon as possible? We needed a leader, a vet, Jesse Davis isn't it.
    I keep saying it, we need a franchise QB. They don't grow on trees, but we need to keep shaking trees until one falls out.
    This team also cannot draft! I like Jaylen Waddle. He's going to be great once we find someone to throw him the ball. Can you imagine Devante Parker on the Packers? Or Chiefs?
    The talent is all there. The organization just sucks.
     
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  2. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    That’s why I don’t really understand why we cut Flowers or why we didn't pursue another OL on FA. Even if it was a 2-3 year stop gap plan, this blow the lid off of defenses philosophy has no merit if the QB has not time to throw the ball deep.

    I also think Waddle has the potential to be good. I didn’t agree with the move up to get him. Rashawn Slater was there at 12, so was Smith and maybe Waddle would have been too. I think with Flowers and Slater, this line is solid, maybe not great yet but certainly not a liability.
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sorry, but I call BS on this. Ryan Tannehill is a franchise quarterback and we failed him. QB is worthless without protection and the right coach. You need all three things- two of the three won't cut it. That's why we spent 6 years trying to evaluate RT and still being highly divided. Now we're doing the exact same thing with Tua for the exact same reasons.
     
  4. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Ryan Tannehill is a slightly-above-average NFL QB. He has flashes of being a very, very good QB, but his inconsistency keeps him from the top-tier level. Still, he's better than what we have and we should probably have kept him rather than going with Tua. But if we'd drafted Herbert, I wouldn't miss Tannehill.
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree completely- but I did want to make sure we're all on the right narrative here. If we could have protected Tannehill, he's certainly "good enough" to get us to an AFC championship game with the other pieces in place.

    It's just unfair to say "if only we had a QB"...we did have one that fit the bill!
     
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  6. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    Rumour was we let Ted Karras go and were aiming for Patriots Center David Andrews. He chose to go back to New England on another contract. That left us digging through the bargain bin and we picked up Matt Skura.
     
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  7. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    Apparently Grier doesn't know the phrase " a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No. Tannehill's run with the Titans to the AFC championship game is mostly a flash in the pan. He's never going to lead that team to the SB. It's absolutely true Tannehill wasn't good enough. He needs ideal conditions to do well. Yes, on rare occasion that's "good enough" just like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson were "good enough". But no in general that's not sufficient. Tannehill cannot overcome adversity, so no he's not "good enough". And you'll see that with Tannehill and the Titans. btw.. he's not doing that well this year. He's currently the 25th ranked starting QB by passer rating.

    Except for one lucky year with Pennington, we haven't had a franchise QB since Marino.
     
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  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    On Sunday night, Tannehill led that team back from a loss without using Henry (clock wouldn't allow it) and without his two best receivers. He still played excellent down the stretch and forced OT. They still lost, but he had a few epic drives in less than ideal conditions.

    In OT, Tannehill's right tackle whiffed a block ad he got blindsided, strip-sacked, but in this instance managed to instantly grab the football. Same old Tannehill, right? The only difference in that one play and the rest of the 4th quarter was the offensive line protection- that's all he ever needed to be 'above average'. So while he may not have ever been a true franchise quarterback, I absolutely think he was good enough.

    We'll see this season though! Miami stinks this season so Go Titans!
     
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  10. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Great post. I've always maintained that Flores was forced to start Tua going back to when it happened last year to the suprise of both Turner and Fitzpatrick.

    I wrote an almost identical post in club before seeing this :D
     
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  11. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Brad, here’s the problem with your analysis of Tannehill and quarterbacks in general…in your analysis, you place EVERYTHING on the quarterback, as if the other 10 players on the field don’t exist. That’s not objective nor is it an accurate representation of a quarterback‘s abilities.

    Our offensive line has sucked…***SUCKED*** for the last 10+ years. That’s a fact. And because it’s sucked so badly, it wouldn’t have mattered who was under center…the result would be identical. If we had an offensive line like we’re seeing with the Cowboys, even Cleo Lemon would look like a superstar. Yes, I’m embellishing to make a point.

    Every great quarterback has a great offensive line, which is why Tannehill, Brady, Prescott and even the young gun Herbert are looking good. Their lines are giving them the time to do their jobs…something that’s been lacking in Miami for over a decade, but instead of looking at the root cause, everyone starts pointing fingers at the quarterback…Tannehill and now Tagovailoa.
     
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  12. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I’ve been giving this thread some thought and wanted to make sure I had my thoughts in order before actually posting on the topic at hand. Is our team chronically ill? I would say that’s actually a fair statement but then how do you fix it?

    Teams have a hierarchy…front office, coaching staff and players. General Managers hire the coaches and sign players. Coaches coach the players and players execute the plays called. Now I’m a firm believer that leadership starts from the top down; owners, GMs, coaches then players. The tone for the team starts at the top. Joe Robbie was the epitome of an owner that was bound and determined to do whatever it took to win. Robbie violated NFL tampering rules, costing the Dolphins their first round draft pick but the result, Don Shula became our head coach. The rest is history.

    Robbie did something that was unheard of and to my knowledge hasn’t been done since. He offered Shula a then league high $70,000 a year salary, the position of general manager AND a 10% ownership in the team itself. When Shula signed his name on the dotted line, he didn’t just become the team’s head coach, the Dolphins became HIS team in every measurable facet. Now Stephen Ross is no Joe Robbie, but just how desperate is he to win?

    I think we can all pretty much agree that Grier has to go. Has he found some great players? Sure he has but he’s not put together a great TEAM. so Ross needs to think outside the box and find a GM that has put together a great team. Brett Veach of the Chiefs comes to mind. I think he could put together a great team…even if he decides to keep Flores at the helm but then the question becomes…what are you (Ross) willing to do to get that GM? Are you willing to pull a Joe Robbie and go for someone with some outside the box thinking?

    Sadly I doubt it but unless the front office truly makes a decisive move in the front office, our mentality as a team will never be great…maybe above average at best
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I've NEVER done that. We've been down this road before so stop lying about my views. I even estimated the QB to be responsible for maybe 15% of win%. That's done statistically, and I've said that for years. That you can't accept someone taking such a reasonable position and have to make up a total lie to make a point is really sad.

    Also not true. Russell Wilson had a pretty bad OL when he won the SB. And have you seen Watson? League leading 62 sacks in 2018 with as porous an OL as it gets and he still played at one standard deviation above average — which is exactly where a QB that wins a SB tends to play in the year they win it. Back in the past Elway often played behind bad lines. And though I wouldn't call Eli great or anything he did win the SB with one of the worst OL a SB winner has ever had in 2011.

    Some QB's overcome adversity some don't. Tannehill doesn't.

    That btw is why I take a no excuses approach to Tua too. Bad OL or no you got to produce.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2021
  14. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    San Diego had a horrible offensive line last year and look at the numbers Herbert put up
     
  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    To support the above, I recently did multiple regression with PFF's season offensive line pass blocking and QB ratings from 2017 and 2018 (combined). Those data are purportedly gathered by isolating the performance of those areas of teams from the other areas of teams. When the variables are entered separately, PFF's season team pass blocking ratings explain just 13% of the variance in season EPA per pass dropback (i.e., pass efficiency), whereas PFF's season QB ratings explain 52% of it. When entered together, the variables explain 60% of the variance in season EPA per pass dropback, and QB ratings remain a far stronger predictor than pass blocking ratings of EPA per pass dropback (t = 8.51 to t = 3.67).

    So, the very strong relationship between quarterback play and pass efficiency doesn't depend on pass blocking, at least as measured by PFF.
     
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  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And that would be but one example that's consistent with the above finding.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The correlation between Tannehill's passer rating and Derrick Henry's yards per rush, game-by-game including the playoffs, is now 0.44, still well above the league norm of near-zero.

    The issue with Tannhill is that you have to give consistent carries to Henry to get Tannehill to perform in a way that makes him competitive with the best QBs in the league (i.e., the playoffs), and that isn't a sound strategy when either 1) the team is behind and running the ball is untenable, and/or 2) Henry for whatever reason isn't performing well.

    The ability of Tannehill to compete at a high level revolves to too great a degree around Henry, and that will always hamper that team on the way to the Super Bowl, when it will very likely face the likes of Mahomes and Josh Allen. Tannehill just can't compete with those kinds of QBs. At that level you need a passer who can put the offense on his back, independent of some need for a running back to function in a certain way or at a certain volume.

    To compete against Mahomes and Allen in that scenario, the Titans would need a defense that stifles those QBs, and that isn't likely either. So in the end, Tannehill needs a run game and a defense to get to a Super Bowl, which makes him for all intents and purposes no different from an average QB in the league.
     
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  18. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    When it comes to the draft and the likelihood that 50% of your picks will bust, it's more like "a bird in the hand is worth 4 in the bush."
     
  19. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    I wonder if the Chargers are gonna send Chris Grier a nice Christmas present this year? They should after the gift he gave them last year!
     
  20. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    To all those questioning or bemoaning the various players and draft picks from Tua vs Herbert, Waddle, Jackson etc. I have a newsflash for you.

    There is no one player that would change where we are right now. If Herbert were on this team we wouldn't be winning.

    Wake up and smell the coffee. We have a higher level management problem.

    We could move many players right now and they'd suddenly start performing.

    This team is managed poorly.

    Forget about talent evaluation right now, it's meaningless. Flores and Grier aren't missing talent. They're misusing what they've got.

    It's frustrating because that's far worse than just missing a few key players. It colours the whole of what we have and what we are.

    It is, however, reality.

    Moan if you have to but know that it's pointless to moan about players.

    Our problem is higher up and no draft picks or trades will fix this.
     
  21. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    They ARE missing players. They're missing them in the draft and free agency. And on top of that, Flores and Grier can't hire a good O-coordinator and Flores, supposedly a defensive wunderkind, can't coach defense.
     
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  22. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Sorry but Herbert is a generational quarterback and we would be in a different position right now with him on board. We would have had all the top offensive playcallers knocking on Flores door begging for the offensive coordinator job to be able to coach Herbert. Hes a top 5 quarterback right now and hes only in year 2 week 6.
     
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  23. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    I had hoped my longer post had clarified. Clearly this roster isn't perfect. However, the point is that better players won't fix this team. Anyone you bring in will perform worse than usual on this team. Players who leave will perform better, in general.

    Focusing on specific players right now is pointless.

    The team needs to correct the leadership problems or it will never be successful.
     
  24. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    Nope. Even with Herbert our line would still be worse than it was last year, our defense too. We lost veteran talent for no apparent reason except maybe cap. You're also assuming we can't attract coaches because of the QB rather than some other factor, like mistrust of the owner and/or GM.

    Herbert would not fix this team.

    The bad picks and bad decisions are coming down from leadership. No player can fix that.
     
  25. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    Well, if he didnt fix the team this year, at least we'd have a franchise QB moving forward to build around. Right now, we have nothing
     
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  26. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    And who would be doing the building?
    That's my point. There is no building. There is no growing, no development, until the the leadership problem is fixed.
    It sucks, but this team's foundation is broken. Until that's fixed there's no winning.
     
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  27. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Have to disagree, G .
    There is a bit of circular reasoning here.
    To say that Herbert wouldn’t help this team, it is the bad picks, etc, from up top that hurts this team. Well, if we had Herbert, then you couldn’t say the guys up top made bad picks. We would be saying they made a genius pick and took an amazing franchise QB. :)
     
  28. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    Not exactly. One right pick wouldn't fix all the others, and there are issues beyond the picks with lost coaches and other decisions. Beyond that, I don't care much for what ifs. Right now, bringing in a new QB won't fix the overall issues on this team.
     
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  29. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    But you said they are making bad decisions from up top with bad picks , etc. It would certainly be a massive step in the right direction. If they picked an amazing franchise QB, that would certainly show that they are not making bad decisions from up top and an amazing, franchise caliber QB would certainly make a difference on this team right now.
     
  30. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    One pick wouldn't prove anything. It could just be a fluke. And if someone is mismanaging coaches, or undermining them, or they can't build an OL to save their lives, etc. etc. that one QB wouldn't fix the team.

    We can't stay as we are, add a player or two, and be okay.

    We've just gone through a multi year tear down and rebuild and things were looking up, and then veterans were cut, coaches have been screwed around, all sorts of nonsense has gone on.

    The team is broken at some foundational level.
     
  31. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Then we would probably be in the Houston Texans situation only difference Herbert doesn't seem as horny...
     
  32. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Do you think X is going to give back part of his paycheck for getting throttled yesterday? I also see that PFF has him ranked at 64th….
     
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  33. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    I think one thing a lot of people here underestimate is the importance of both ability and consistency in coaching.
    There's a reason Belichick persuaded his long time OL coach (whose name I can't spell - Scarn...something) to come back and stay with the team.

    It's one thing for an established team to lose a coach and replace him, but it's something else for a rebuilding team with a new coach and new players to keep changing coaches, not to mention veterans.

    If there's two things I would love to have more insight into it would be what happened with the coaches the last few years, why did they leave/get fired, (and if fired, by whom), and then what was the reason for ditching our veteran talent.

    We basically laid the foundation for something and then ripped it up and started again with a few bits of rubble held over.

    That's no way to build a team and the question has to be why we did that.

    Sadly, it feels like the coaching we put in place was more of a stop gap. If that's the case then we'll have more coaching changes in the future too, which means more learning.
     
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  34. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    It doesn't matter who we hire to coach if we keep making crappy personnel decisions. We need a competent GM.
     
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  35. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    To summarize- it's consistency, we just need consistency and that's impossible when you're always rebuilding.
     
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  36. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    I agree. It's just 'both/and' not 'either/or'.

    I just see a lot of chatter about add this player or add that player when the issue is bigger than just adding a player.
     
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  37. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    He has been a joke. He was playing man against Brown and wouldn't even jam him at the line. He would just let him cleanly run his routes and Brown would take off.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2021
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  38. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

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    Was initially happy they were able to restructure his contract and keep him, but based on his performance so far, that’s looking like yet another mistake
     
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  39. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Yeah but if they traded him we would all be ripping them a new one over it right now its a damned if you do situation
     
  40. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Yep. True. Who would have thought he would have fallen off the cliff like this. I feel this has to be a leadership and coaching issue. I hate to say it, but this may fall on Flo.
     

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