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Thoughts on the Dolphins/Cowboys Game

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Sep 22, 2019.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Come on. The offense remains the same. I would assume very rarely plays are designed ONLY for specific players, and if they are, then you have other receivers running routes to free up that one guy. So, everyone has to do their job for that play to be successful.

    Also, I would not blame the WR corp for individual players mistakes, but for the offense AS A WHOLE to be functional and effective, ALL players have to be working as a unit. You guys keep wanting to try to keep making things about individuals, and that's not correct.

    I think maybe if you'd played high school sports you'd understand more of what I'm talking about. For instance, I played on a soccer team that was horrible. There were a bunch of unathletic kids, with myself and like 4 other guys who were athletic. I can tell you, no matter how well the 4 or 5 of us played, there were 6 or 7 guys playing terribly, and that makes it almost impossible to win.
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Right, but that's independent of what I'm saying. The passer rating formula itself only holds one thing constant: the QB. In some cases you can show something else is constant (e.g., Belichick + Brady) but often you can explicitly show there is variation in players, especially over seasons. So it's an empirical question as to how much you can remove the effects of the surroundings. That can't just be intuited.

    I think post #158 summarizes my argument:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/thoughts-on-the-dolphins-cowboys-game.94643/page-4#post-3207430

    The question is whether you disagree with anything in that post.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Actually this wasn't a bad idea. I never looked past the top 15 or so. LOTS of surprises. And lots of guys I never heard of lol.

    Anyway, I just posted the top 100 QB's with 2500+ career passing attempts. Keep in mind this is ONLY regular season.

    Also note that my database isn't complete, especially w.r.t. QB's before 1978, so think of this as the top 100 since 1978 unless there's a guy in there that happened to play before that. And this doesn't include 2019.

    As I said.. LOTS of surprises and I think some of that is due to passer rating not including QB running ability.

    1. Steve_Young
    2. Joe_Montana
    3. Aaron_Rodgers
    4. Roger_Staubach
    5. Peyton_Manning
    6. Kurt_Warner
    7. Tom_Brady
    8. Russell_Wilson
    9. Drew_Brees
    10. Tony_Romo
    11. Ken_Anderson
    12. Dan_Marino
    13. Philip_Rivers
    14. Dan_Fouts
    15. Bob_Griese
    16. Neil_Lomax
    17. Jim_Kelly
    18. Bert_Jones
    19. Jeff_Garcia
    20. Ben_Roethlisberger
    21. Danny_White
    22. Matt_Ryan
    23. Rich_Gannon
    24. Brett_Favre
    25. Daunte_Culpepper
    26. Bernie_Kosar
    27. Mark_Brunell
    28. Trent_Green
    29. Dave_Krieg
    30. Ken_OBrien
    31. Joe_Theismann
    32. Boomer_Esiason
    33. Steve_Bartkowski
    34. Randall_Cunningham
    35. Troy_Aikman
    36. Brian_Sipe
    37. Ken_Stabler
    38. Warren_Moon
    39. Donovan_McNabb
    40. Matt_Schaub
    41. Brad_Johnson
    42. Neil_ODonnell
    43. John_Elway
    44. Steve_McNair
    45. Terry_Bradshaw
    46. Phil_Simms
    47. Carson_Palmer
    48. Marc_Bulger
    49. Jeff_George
    50. Steve_Beuerlein
    51. Jim_McMahon
    52. Brian_Griese
    53. Mark_Rypien
    54. Bobby_Hebert
    55. Chris_Chandler
    56. Jim_Everett
    57. Ron_Jaworski
    58. Matthew_Stafford
    59. Andy_Dalton
    60. Alex_Smith
    61. Jim_Harbaugh
    62. Andrew_Luck
    63. Jake_Delhomme
    64. Steve_DeBerg
    65. Lynn_Dickey
    66. Matt_Hasselbeck
    67. Archie_Manning
    68. Jay_Cutler
    69. Jeff_Blake
    70. Tommy_Kramer
    71. Steve_Grogan
    72. Derek_Carr
    73. Jim_Plunkett
    74. Ryan_Tannehill
    75. Drew_Bledsoe
    76. Sam_Bradford
    77. Cam_Newton
    78. Stan_Humphries
    79. Eli_Manning
    80. Aaron_Brooks
    81. Chris_Miller
    82. Jim_Zorn
    83. Joe_Ferguson
    84. Jason_Campbell
    85. Vinny_Testaverde
    86. Michael_Vick
    87. John_Kitna
    88. Joe_Flacco
    89. Kyle_Orton
    90. Doug_Williams
    91. Jay_Schroeder
    92. Richard_Todd
    93. Josh_McCown
    94. Gus_Frerotte
    95. Jake_Plummer
    96. Ryan_Fitzpatrick
    97. Matt_Cassel
    98. Kerry_Collins
    99. Trent_Dilfer
    100. Blake_Bortles
     
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Many thanks for that cbrad.

    I would encourage people to determine whether they believe the ordering of the vast majority of those quarterbacks is consistent with their perceptions of the quarterbacks’ individual ability.

    In other words, is career passer rating a fairly valid measure of quarterbacks’ individual ability for you specifically.

    I would suggest you start with the easily made observation that the Hall of Famers on the list are far closer to the top than to the bottom.
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I also think it's equally important to point out that Duante Culpepper was just barely edged out by Brett Favre in the top 25 OF THE PAST 40 YEARS.

    Please raise your hand if Culpepper was in your personal top 25....
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The issue there is that Culpepper was very good pre-injury, and Favre was a gunslinger who threw a relatively high percentage of interceptions, thus lowering his passer rating.
     
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  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, I disagree with the QB being they only constantl.
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    How many HoFers played on bad teams? Again that list does not address my issue. We're just going in a circle.
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah there's nothing to really dispute there because that's by definition true. Passer rating for a QB only requires that you track the QB and nothing else. The formula itself never requires you to keep the coach the same, the WR corps the same or anything else constant. It's by definition the case that passer rating ONLY requires keeping who the QB is constant. And remember, "constant" = "NEVER changes".

    Like I said in the post you quoted.. there may be cases where other things are also constant but that's generally not the case, and often it applies only to a coach + QB combo. I don't know of a case where it's true for OL or WR or "WR corps" for a longer career.
     
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  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Doesn’t surprise me. Culpepper”s good pre-injury stats make up the vast volume of his passing attempts. Favre had more down years on his resume because of the length of his career.

    If you wanted argue that Favre was better at his peak than Culpepper I believe the stats would back that up.

    Bob Griese at #15 is the one that surprised me the most.

    Also since this is regular season stats the post season heroics of some QBs such as Terry Bradshaw or Eli Manning aren’t included in the assessment.
     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That’s why I’m asking you to determine whether there is a correlation between the ordering of the vast majority of the quarterbacks on that list and your perceptions of their individual ability.
     
  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    How can I honestly answer that if I haven't watched them play?
     
  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Of the ones you’ve seen play, do you see a relationship between where they are in the list and your perceptions of their individual ability?
     
  15. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I was glad to see Ken Anderson at 11. There is no question in my mind he belongs there. The fact he isn't in the hall of fame shows inconsistency on how HOF's are selected.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    He had it extra tough because he was a QB and didn't win a SB.

    Actually, one utility of statistics we've seen from baseball is that their increasing respect for statistical analysis has made it LESS likely that awards like MVP go only to players on strong teams. It used to be the norm that the MVP had to be on a strong team, but with metrics like Wins Above Replacement (WAR) becoming widely respected you see guys like Mike Trout regularly win or come close to winning MVP.

    Ken Anderson might never make it, having come too early for that kind of adjustment in thinking, but I think we'll see a tipping point not too far in the future where stats start to influence the HoF voting process more, and I think the first real test case will be Eli Manning. Eli has tons of passing attempts and 2 SB's but he has lousy efficiency stats as you can see in that list. I'm really hoping Eli doesn't make it because that to me is a sign that z-score efficiency stats are becoming more influential.
     
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  17. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Eli Manning is the John Stallworth of QBs. Very average regular season stats, but is best remembered for some key plays in Superbowls. I think he makes it in even if just for the helmet catch.
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If Eli Manning’s name were Eli Smith, I don’t think he would even be in the conversation.

    The problem with him in terms of Hall of Fame induction is that he’s going to get some additional consideration, perhaps if only on an unconscious level, simply because of his bloodline.
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Also, we're talking about the rating system being flawed. So using that system to determine the constants seems silly at best. I don't care of the rating system only considers the QB to be a constant, I think that's a big problem with the rating system. QBs should not get the credit for YAC and TDS that are a result of YAC. Once the receiver catches the ball, he should now be considered a runner, and yards or TDS accrued after the catch should only be attributed to the receiver.
     
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  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I think Eli makes it with the Giants beating the undefeated Patriots team. That is legendary.
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The nature of the game makes the quarterback the constant. For any metric you developed to measure quarterback play, the quarterback would be the constant.

    Even if you apportioned yards after catch to receivers, for example, those would presumably be different receivers over time, not the same ones, and again the quarterback would be the constant.

    What you really need to settle on is the idea that for small sample sizes (single games for example), the metric we’re talking about can often have lots of error associated with it, but for large sample sizes (careers for example), it doesn’t.

    Nobody looks at the career passer rating of Dan Marino and concludes that he was the beneficiary of his surrounding cast, and without them he would’ve floundered. They attribute that statistic to his individual ability, as they should.
     
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  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm not arguing that bad QBs would look great. Lol. I think many QBs would have lower ratings, if we changed it up, but they would be more honest ratings. The good QBs would still have better ratings, but it would certainly be a more complete picture of the QB and his ability than we currently have.
     
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  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, this whole conversation didn't start over "let's figure out who's the best of all time". In my mind, this is a conversation to figure out, do we start Tannehill this week after he had 3 picks and a strip sack...or do we move to the backup because he's a hopeless cause? We just went six freaking years saying he's great, he sucks, he's a perennial top 10 QB if he had a line, a RB, or whatever. Six years and many would argue that he should still be a starter.....because QB Rating lies.

    I mean heck, he's the 76th best QB of all time based on CBrad's metrics earlier...surely to God he's one of the top 32 today. That must be true unless the ratings are lying to us (which they clearly are). For instance, one of RT's best games ever was four passes within 3 yards of the LOS that went for TD's against the Browns. The stats said a perfect QBR with 300+ yards and 4 TD's...did that tell us the truth though? There's lies on both sides of the equation.

    The raw data could be gathered for us to answer these question on a week to week basis and have accurate representations of what QB's are doing in college and in the pros. Because we QUICKLY need these answers on Herbert, Tua, Rosen, etc. and there's no way to currently generate that without watching weeks of film. I mean, take last week alone- I said Rosen played a solid 1st game....Cbrad says he sucked. And the stats ignore 100% of my argument (dropped TD passes) and about 50% of his (accuracy on throws, reads, release levels, etc).
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2019
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    If Flores starts Rosen the rest of this season I think we'll have a large enough sample size to determine whether we need to draft a QB with our #1 pick. And Rosen's ratings can be adjusted for defense. No need to adjust for coaching as long as we have the same coach. One can't adjust for OL or so.. but no adjustment for OL is giving you a full standard deviation higher rating than pre-adjustment.

    So we can debate along the way.. but as the sample size gets larger I think the stats will show what we want.
     
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Sure, and I'm by no means sold on Rosen...there's just no buyer's remorse yet and I think he's off to a good start. I'd just like some more accurate data to tell us about the game behind the game.
     
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  26. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Dan Fouts comes to mind
     
  27. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I’d be curious which of these quarterbacks you’ve never heard of. I’ve seen every one of them play
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Bert Jones, Danny White, Dave Krieg, Steve Bartkowski, Brian Sipe, Bobby Hebert, Steve DeBerg, Lynn Dickey, Tommy Kramer, Steve Grogan, Stan Humphries, Chris Miller, Jim Zorn, Joe Ferguson, Jason Campbell, Jay Schroeder, Richard Todd.

    So 17 of them I basically knew nothing about. And a lot of others that I've heard of I never watched. And of course most QB's I know of and have watched play I've only watched play occasionally. That's probably true for everyone, including you. So it doesn't really mean much to say you "watched every one of them". It's not like you watched every game they played nor is your memory perfect or unbiased.

    When it comes to longer careers I think it's MUCH better to rely on stats than people's imperfect memories about the player.
     
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  29. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Don't we have three #1 round picks?

    We could use any one of them for a QB if the GM thinks they can improve the teams performance and the chances for success are about the same.

    I remember an article I read some years ago that pointed out statistically that the quality of players, that is the measurement of their success in the NFL, drops off significantly after the first 20 picks. If that article was correct, and I believe it was, then focusing on the first 3 or 5 or even 10 picks for a specific player is typically a fools errand.

    The opportunity to pick a good player is better in the earliest picks because their is a larger selection to pick from.

    The ability to determine who that player should be is the hard part and it is not fool-proof. This can be observed in action as fans pre-select their future hero's, while those players are still in their sophomore year. Fans don't know which draft these guys will be in, much less how they will progress in their last two years of play. The fans don't have nearly as much information or know as much as the Front Office does; but when you read their posts, it's clear that they are convinced they do.

    We are better off scrutinizing all the players likely to be available to us and then decide:

    1) Which players are the best fit for our most serious positions of need.

    2) The next step is to determine how will any given pick effect our following picks, in terms of improving our team.

    3) Based on the results of the first two steps, find if their is an opportunity to trade down to increase our draft picks without decreasing the general desirability of any following picks?

    ex. There is a strong CB class and we need better CB's. Can we turn one pick into two and get 2 CB's of the same general capability of the one we are looking at with a given pick?

    This type of analysis continues throughout the draft and into the post draft period picking UDFA's.

    This approach offers the simplicity of showing exactly what we should do while avoiding the complexity of how to do it. That should make a lot of sense, because I'm only just a fan!
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I saw all of them play except for Lynn Dickey and Archie Manning, and I agree that their career passer ratings are a much better way than memory to evaluate them.
     
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  31. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    You're right about there being a relative drop-off in quality from the bottom 1/3 of the 1st round but that's only because teams aren't all picking the same position. All kinds of positions are picked, from QB to WR to DE to DT, etc... So that kind of makes sense.

    I think it's pretty clear you'd want your first choice rather than your second or third, and while for many positions you can get that player after the top 5 picks it's often the case you can't with QB's because there's a run on QB's. So with QB's I think you want to pick #1.

    Having said that, it's still more likely our pick is no better than average. Here are all QB's taken 1st overall since 1970:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_National_Football_League_draft_picks

    Bradshaw, Plunkett, Bartkowski, Elway, Testaverde, Aikman, George, Bledsoe, Peyton, Couch, Vick, Carr, Palmer, Eli, Smith, Russell, Stafford, Bradford, Newton, Luck, Winston, Goff, Mayfield, Murray.

    Lots of "busts" relative to expectation in there.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2019
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    There are 10 I hadn't heard of, and many more that I haven't actually ever watched play.
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Ok? I mean, I wasn't around when he was playing, so I have no idea how accurate your statement. Also, saying one QB is kind of my point. I think it's probably pretty rare.
     
  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I think we have six first round picks....because we're going to pass on Tua to rake in the motherlode. The more I watch this front office, the more I think they'll trade that #1 pick unless they see a clear vision of filling in most pieces in FA and the first few rounds of the draft.
     
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  35. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Without looking anything up online and going from the best of my recollection...

    Bert Jones, Baltimore Colts, late 70's early 80's
    Danny White, heir to Roger Staubach in Dallas....also the team's punter
    Dave Krieg, Seattle Seahawks in the 70's
    Steve Bartkowski, Atlanta Falcons in the 70's
    Brian Sipe, Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Bulls during the days of the USFL
    Bobby Hebert, New Orleans Saints
    Steve DeBerg, Journeyman QB, mostly in KC. The BEST play action pass QB I've EVER seen. His hands were so large that he could hold that ball WAY out there and tuck it away at the last second. Played for Miami the year Marino went down
    Lynn Dickey, Green Bay Packers back in the 70's
    Tommy Kramer, heir to Fran Tarkington in Minnesota
    Steve Grogan, New England Patriots late 70's early 80s
    Stan Humphries, San Diego Chargers in the 80's
    Chris Miller, Atltana Falcons in the late 80's
    Jim Zorn, Seattle Seahawks back in the 70's as I recall
    Joe Ferguson, Buffalo Bills as I recall....back in the early 70's
    Jason Campbell, journeyman QB...Washington Redskins during the 80's 90's
    Jay Schroeder, Another journeyman QB but made his mark with the Raiders
    Richard Todd, Awww, Richard Todd..QB of our nemesis...the Jests.

    God I'm old! LMAO
     
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  36. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I caught the tail end of that conversation...and still haven't looked at the topic that deeply. I was merely responding to the question of HoF QBs that played on losing teams.
     
  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    There are 26 quarterbacks from what the Hall of Fame labels the Modern Era in the Hall of Fame. This apparently dates
    back to 1946. Some of these quarterbacks I only have vague memories of insomuch as remembering my grandparents speak of them...Blanda, graham, jurgenson just to name a few but there are quarterbacks on that list whom I vividly remember and even though some had flashes of light, the team they were on were like one hit wonders...

    Joe Namath and the Jets. After their Super Bowl victory over the Colts, they never were anything after that

    Same with Kenny Stabler and the Raiders

    Warren Moon and the Oilers

    Now even though i included some Super Bowl champions on that list of bad teams, I don’t include quarterbacks such as Fran Tarkington nor Jim Kelly just due to the fact that if you are on a team that goes to multiple Super Bowls, you’re not on a bad team.

    So are there HoFers who played on bad teams...yes, there are multiple examples
     
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  38. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I believe it’s five first-rounders. The two we normally would’ve had in 2020 and 2021, the two from Houston, and the one from Pittsburgh.
     
  39. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    All that's true, but you can only have one draft a season, so next year we have 3 #1's!
     
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  40. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Was looking at which team had the most 1st round picks in a single draft and it looks like it's the Jets in 2000 with 4.

    Here's what's depressing about that. That was a very good draft by the Jets, taking Shaun Ellis, John Abraham, Chad Pennington and Anthony Becht (first two made the Pro Bowl). They even followed that up with Laveranues Coles in the 3rd (another Pro Bowler). The effect of that draft on win%? Zero lol. Jets were a 9, 12 and 8-win team from 1997-1999 and then a 9, 10, 9-win team from 2000-2002.

    There was a coaching change in 2000, from Parcells to Groh and then in 2001 to Edwards, but still.. very surprising IMO. Just goes to show how many different things have to go right to make a sustained change in win%.

    Speaking of coaching changes.. Gase's offense is currently ranked #31 in points scored LOLOLOL. Jets play Eagles, Cowboys, Patriots and Jaguars before playing the Dolphins. There's a decent chance that Jets vs. Dolphins game is a game between two 0-7 teams.
     
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