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Time to enjoy what's happening!

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by pumpdogs, Sep 19, 2023.

  1. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Teams just ignore him. lol

    It seems TE's, overall, typically get more separation. May have to do with them "fake" blocking and then going out for a pass.
     
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  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Because they're not throwing with anticipation or sniper-like accuracy. Tua is letting the ball fly before his receivers even make their break. More often than not, the ball is in the air before the player is looking for it. That's next level and it happens on almost every passing down.

    With that said, I think the separation stats are misleading. Tyreek's early TD's had nobody within 5 yards of him this past week. On other downs, Tyreek was triple covered and someone was standing all alone. Or the concept would load one side of the field and have someone break off towards the sidelines...often without anyone covering them since all the defenders were backpedaling.

    Part of this is scheme, sure. But another part is Tua seeing the field and putting the football exactly where it needs to be in time. I can name 31 starting QB's that couldn't make all of Tua's first 17 throws this past week...and it's not that they don't have the arm strength or the accuracy. They can't deliver that precise of a football exactly when the receiver is coming open with room to run. And those were every one of tua's early throws...17 times in a row...all being released before the receiver was even open.

    Now that I think about it- don't they measure separation by when the ball was released (instead of when it's caught?)? That may explain how stats don't show separation yet the tape clearly does.
     
  3. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  4. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Herbert got boned on the air but we will take it
     
  5. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    I’m so pissed at myself but I’m not happy right now with our team. Seriously I should be smiling ear to ear but I been let down so many times. If we lose this game everyone says welp they played bad teams and the first good team beat em. I just hope we win this weekend and I will start enjoying the season until then I can’t
     
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  6. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    It was a wild game. It was good to see.

    Yes, I am happy to see Tua doing well. I always say that regardless of how I feel about the player individually, when the ball is snapped,
    I root for Tua as much as I have for any Phin QB. I also work with a bunch of Jets and Pats fans and it’s been good to stick it to them on a daily basis.

    I do truly think so much of this has to be credited to McDaniel. His play design and schemes are just so innovative and it’s the perfect scheme for Tua. He is the kind of QB who can and has thrived in this type of scheme. He has to make quick reads and get the ball out fast and on time and he is doing that great. There is obviously the speed, but all of the motion and run designs are amazing. I mean, how in the heck does Tyreek get that open on that first TD? I mean, he was more than “college open”. Early in that coaching hiring process, I played a short video of McDaniels going over some of his scheming ideas with the Niners staff and you could see he was very passionate about it and you could also see the other coaches had respect. Hey, he went to Yale. Ha! Sorry.
    I mean, look at two of the top rated QBs in the league right now in Brock Purdy(Mr Irrelevant) and Tua. What systems are they in? If this success continues, you will see most teams trying to implement the same concepts, etc. They already are. So, if this does continue, they will actually be revolutionizing the league.

    …and how about that OL? Holy Butch Barry!! Lol! Geez. Who in the heck saw that coming? They have been playing great. All of us, on both sides, had serious concerns about the OL. I was concerned that Tua wouldn’t make it through this season alive.
    None of this would be possible if the OL was as bad as we all thought they would be. However, again, so much of that has to do with McDaniels and the scheme. The scheme gets the ball out of QBs hands very fast and that is key for the OL. They don’t have to hold up as long as they normally would and they can get downfield and block which greatly helps the run game. I mean, look at our run game. That is McDaniels specialty. The run game in turn greatly helps the pass game and visa versa. Obviously.

    So, all good. Let’s hope it continues and we stomp barfalo this week.
     
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  7. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, something is amiss with that :) trying to sell us on the fact that Geiscki gets open more then Hill and Waddle LOL
     
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  8. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure how they measure that, what I see when I look at plays is multiple guys open all over the field. Not every single receiver on every single play, but it is amazing how many on multiple plays. Even the experts that break down film talk about it.

    Again having receivers open does not take away from what Tua is doing. For example I would not expect Tannehill to do what Tua is doing in this offense. Tua is great at seeing and anticipating.
     
    resnor likes this.
  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'm guessing the moment a completion or incompletion is made is specified manually, then the rest is calculated automatically using RFID chips. One issue I have with "average separation" is they treat completions and incompletions the same. When the incompletion occurs (manually specified) can have a major effect on that stat.

    As far as why TEs might have higher average separation, note they're closer to the line of scrimmage or even behind it sometimes. The defense doesn't need to stay as close to the receiver to close the distance and make the tackle, so I'd actually expect this, and even more for RBs if they tracked that.

    I like the fact Next Gen Stats introduced new stats, but there are some issues I do have with them. Most importantly, if they're using machine learning to calculate things like completion probability, then that means those probabilities must be constantly changing with new data. How are they managing that aspect of it? There's a black box nature to what they do that's not as serious as what ESPN did with their QBR or FO did with DVOA, but still some questions remain. No actual published research paper explaining how they validated the machine learning model, or precisely what architecture was used, etc. But overall I think they've added useful info (which I wouldn't say for ESPN's QBR or FO's DVOA).
     
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  10. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    So you think there's a conspiracy or NexGen can't count? There's no reason to believe that anything is amiss. Mac Jones isn't a very good QB. Maybe he doesn't throw to Gesicki unless he has a lot of separation?
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2023
  11. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Tua manipulates the defense with his eyes and body mechanics. The evidence shows, however, that they aren't getting open in some crazy percentage of targets. When I watch the tape, they have their moments of being open, like all good receivers do, but it's not anything special. Tua is highly accurate and knows where to put the ball. There are far more times when a DB is right on Waddle and Hill than when they are "wide open". Busted plays happen, and with their speed it kills the defense, and maybe we remember those exciting plays more, but for the most part, Tyreek and Waddle are catching balls with defenders right on them and the evidence shows that.
     
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  12. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Why wouldn't they treat comp's and incomp's the same?

    This is NextGen's definition:

    "Average Separation (SEP)
    The distance (in yards) measured between a WR/TE and the nearest defender at the time of catch or incompletion."

    I don't think there's any probability involved. Are you saying you think they have RFID chips on all players? I wouldn't think that's the case? My thinking is that they just mark each player at the beginning of each play and track their movement on a computer. If that's the case, why would there be any "hidden" data? You place your marker on each guy, then see who was closest to the player making/dropping/missing the pass, measure their distance and average out all distances for all targets and then come up with average separation.
     
  13. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Oh, BTW:
     
  14. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Another insane graph:
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I have been slandered! I am not stale. I am the original. I have also been riding Tua's nuts for years here, and yes, it feels as good to be right about him as it does for the former haters that are actual fans to be wrong. We should all feel good.

    Thanks Fireland.
     
  16. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    A thousand pardons, Friend. I think a small part of me wanted to believe he had the common decency to finally embrace objectivity at an epic moment in "his" team's history. Instead, he hasn't popped up with anything to say since the Game. That small part of me will accept his silence as recognition that he's been exposed. I will never make that mistake again.
     
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  17. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Kind of puts things in perspective

     
  18. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    That's incredible. I'm surprised Ricky never won it. Or that Marino only won twice. With that being said, it shows how hard it is to be recognized.
     
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  19. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I blocked stale after debating him for a couple of posts. Clearly a troll, and not funny, so why bother? Sometimes you have to stop smelling the crap or you get it on your nose.
     
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  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    first time a dolphin players has achieved this in 30 years
     
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  21. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    the evidence other then actual video? Dude, seriously all the people doing the video analysis are talking about how wide open the receivers are. Like the TD to Hill first one. No one around him for probably 7 yards, the "evidence" you reference would probably say he only had a yard separation.

    I think I may understand our difference in our views. To me 3 yards (9 feet) is wide open, apparently you don't think that is open in the NFL.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2023
  22. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    upload_2023-9-28_13-35-15.png
     
  23. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    upload_2023-9-28_13-37-22.png
     
  24. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    If you want to cherry pick one catch, sure, but when you factor in the total number of targets, you'll see that the media is wrong. As they typically are.

    Also, Tyreek apparently ran the wrong route in your example. Not really pertinent to this convo, other than Tua played off script (which the media also says he can't do) and turned it into a TD...and I thought it was funny.
     
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  25. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    Yes, there are RFID chips in all the shoulder pads and in the ball.
     
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  26. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Hmm...I didn't realize that. If that's true, then that makes the case for RFID chips making it even more exact in regards to player position, right?
     
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  27. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    That's only 1 catch, it's an average they use. Have a look at his other catches and see where the defenders are.
     
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  28. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And, for the Tua cannot play off schedule, doesn't read defenses post snap, picks his spot and throws it no matter what crowd. (absurd that this is a thing) Explain this: (credit to Alex in the club for posting first)

     
  29. Springveldt

    Springveldt Season Ticket Holder

    He's probably still in mourning over Rodgers going down. The Dolphins putting up 70 might have put him on suicide watch.
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think the definition would be cleaner if they only tracked completions. If an incompletion hits the WRs hand, then it may not matter, but if it's farther off, then the point at which you say the incompletion occurred can change the stats. Given that the WR and DB are moving in most cases, even a 0.1 second difference in when the incompletion occurs can bias this stat.

    Yes I think they do have RFIDs on all or almost all players. The errors would be a much larger if they had a person manually track players on a video, especially given the change in viewing angles involved. It also costs less doing it automatically. This link seems to suggest they put 2-3 RFIDs into each player's pads, as well as an RFID in the ball, pylons, sticks, chains, etc.
    https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/technology/nfl-next-gen-stats/

    My comment on probability isn't about this particular definition, just what they do with the data. For example, based on definitions such as "average separation" they'll calculate completion probabilities. It makes sense they use machine learning for that, but as I pointed out there's a black box element there because: 1) they haven't divulged what machine learning architecture they're using and how they validated it, and 2) I'm not sure how they're dealing with the constantly changing nature of the results as they retrain the model.
     
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  31. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Ah, gotcha. I can agree with you on the only tracking completions idea. Makes sense.

    However, what they do seems to be a pretty good way of getting a very close idea of what the separation average is for any given player. And since they are measuring the same for all receivers, I think we can assume that even if Tyreek's separation isn't exactly 3.1 YPT, the difference between his and another receiver's separation is pretty close to what they're showing. Agree?
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah I think it's good data. I think one reason some people are saying the stats don't seem right is because it's "average" separation and they're mostly remembering the cases where Hill is wide open. Hill really is totally wide open on a bunch of plays, but there are also a bunch of cases where Tua throws it into a tight window. In other cases Hill may have to come back to the ball so that the separation at the time of completion is less than it may have looked a split second earlier.
     
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  33. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Right 20 yards open and 9 other 5 yards open does not equal 3 yards open. And it shows all the other open receivers, don't miss the point.
     
  34. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    right, and it in no way tracks how open the receiver was when pass was thrown. He could be 10 yards open standing there waiting for the pass and when it actually does make the catch the defender is now on top of him.
     
  35. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Even then though you're not considering any other targets. NGS is considering all the others and that's why their average is correct.
     
  36. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Still regardless of how it is twisted. Several receivers 3 yards open on a single play is wide open.
     
  37. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    You're not making any sense. It's true that a defender can close the distance between when the pass is thrown and when it's caught, but it's the same for all the other receivers and defenders. Which means, when you take all the averages Hill isn't any more open than these other receivers.
     
  38. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    As are the other receivers that have separation. So Tyreek having an average of 3 yards of separation is somehow the same as other receivers that have 4 yards? Again, you're not making any sense here.

    Bottom line, Hill isn't "always" open and there are many more receivers that have greater separation than him.
     
  39. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    You are not understanding common sense despite numerous clips of multiple players being open on plays. You are seriously saying Hill is not better then any other receiver in football. The entire use of this stat is a waste. You are claiming everything the Dolphins offense does is due to Tua and nothing else. Noting to do with the receivers, routes, nothing.
     
  40. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I didn't make this a Hill conversation you twisted it to try to prove a point. Hill is often double teamed, thus tighter coverage. You are claiming that 3-4 yard open in the NFL is not really open. That is open in the NFL
     

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