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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    By the absolute slimmest of margins however. Let me post the z-scores again because we're going to look at this when this season is over:

    Tannehill z-scores:
    2012: -0.8259
    2013: -0.3630
    2014: 0.3940
    2015: -0.1698
    2016: 0.3739
    2018: -0.0167

    So yes 2014 was technically the best but as you can see 2014 and 2016 are essentially identical. They were also the only years he was above average. What is Tannehill's z-score right now? It's a very impressive 1.0474. The average z-score for the entire offense for SB winners is 0.9389 so if Tannehill's current level is his average level this year then that's more than sufficient to build a SB team around.

    But again.. sample size is small and nothing Tannehill has done so far statistically or otherwise is abnormal for 136 passing attempts.

    And so it's clear what the statistical test will be at the end of the year, we'll do a 2-sample t-test for unequal samples sizes on his game-by-game ratings after adjusting ratings to a common year and compare his entire career in Miami vs. Tennessee to test whether those two sets of ratings "come from the same QB". We can also do an ANOVA to test whether the adjusted ratings from all years "come from the same QB" (this test separates the data by year).

    Anyway.. that will show whether you can explain whatever Tannehill does in Tennessee given what he did in Miami by random variation alone, or whether there is something statistically significant with his performance in Tennessee.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    That alone won't do it. You have to explain why it would be plausible for all coaches other than Miami's coach to NOT game plan when you know your OL is bad because if "game planning around issues with the OL" is not unique to Miami it won't affect the overall stats. And the only way around that critique would be to start off by assuming that only Miami's OL is so bad that you'd need to game plan around it. The problem with that is we know many coaches game plan like you're describing.

    Besides.. given how bad Gase was, if anything it would be the other way around right? We did NOT game plan as well as we should have which would make it less likely for your scenario to occur specifically in Miami.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
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  3. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Ehh the first 5 weeks of 2016 the team was a dumpster fire around the qb.

    that’s the only reason 2014 and 2016 were close in terms of his “best season”
    And of course he got hurt before he could finish the season.
     
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  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You misunderstand my post. Was I making a comparison that Tannehill is better than Marino? SACRILEGE!!!!!! Marino is the GREATEST quarterback to ever play the game!!! I don't care who says otherwise.

    The point I was making was simple. We asked Tannehill to produce. He produced. The remainder of the team, most specifically the coaching staff did not and yet, who is still frowned upon and looked down upon? Tannehill!

    I bet Titans fan are elated they have Tannehill.
     
  5. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    LOL. Once again Ryan Tannehill is proving to be the most polarizing player on this forum!

    All I know is the guy is 3-1 since he took the starting job from Mariotta. In the end that's all that matters and it remains to be seen how far he can take them. It'll be interesting to watch.

    Good for him and the Titans.
     
  6. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Actually the fact that we ran an inordinate amount of screen and short passes under Gase can in a way explain why our pressure % would be mediocre but our line terrible.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Very well.. but let's be clear. Statistically speaking Tannehill's production was that of an average QB (a tad bit below actually). Those of us who "frown" on Tannehill are only doing so because we want consistently above average production.

    I'm sure they are. The question is whether that will last or not. It's only been 136 passing attempts. Either way, what's happening right now is really good because it provides a good test of the effects of different surroundings on Tannehill.

    Let's just all remember this isn't the first such "test". For many years people predicted next year was the year Tannehill would be "top 10" or so. Even last year, in the 2018 preseason, there were lots of posters claiming this was finally the year Tannehill would produce because he had a coach that believed in him (can't fault Gase for not believing in Tannehill) and because Gase had "his team".

    So we'll see!
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The entire NFL has moved in the direction of more screen passes. It's not like the Dolphins are an outlier. And the bad OL argument has been a constant for us, well before Gase. Also, we had a good OL with Gase during certain stretches like in 2016.

    So it's going to have to be something truly unique to the Dolphins over an extended period of time.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Of course if you remove all the bad games you end up with better stats. Here's another interesting result using ranks for the moment: Tannehill was ranked #12 by passer rating among all starting QB's at the end of 2016. He was also ranked #12 when you ONLY consider that "best consecutive 8 game stretch" from games 6-13 if you compare to all other QB's "best consecutive 8 game stretches".

    Just pointing out what the data look like from a statistician's perspective. It's consistent with random variation. So sure one can try to explain everything by looking for an explanation, but it's also consistent with the type of random variation you generally see for most QB's across the league. Anyway.. we'll see what happens this year.
     
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  10. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Well we aren't talking about just bad teams, we are talking about averages.

    So we will have teams that have a great OL that will push their game plan and not attempt to cover for bad OL plays. They will still see pressure, but they will most likely see pressure based on the overall performance of an OL that is much higher and consistent then most other teams in the NFL.

    Then we will have teams that only have a good OL, that may flirt with opening up the offense but might implement some of the OL covers as needed.

    Then you will have the bad OL that the coach's entire game plan revolves around covering for the bad OL play until they absolutely have to try to win the game.

    It is very possible that all 3 of these scenarios give up the exact same amount of pressure in the game(I would wager there are more tiers then just the 3 I'm showing here), but as you move down the list your offense suffers 1st from the very process of trying to cover for the bad O-line and 2nd from the dangerous point where you have to open up the offense and pray the Offensive line doesn't get your QB killed.

    I'm not pointing out that Miami was unique in its bad OL play, I'm saying they fell into the 3rd example, and probably suffered equally with jailbreak pressures as other really bad O-line teams did, once the team had to stop covering for the OL weakness. But these teams would all be taking more jailbreak situations then the other instances.

    What I am pointing out is that it is very possible to have 1 team on one end of the spectrum give up the exact same number of pressures as a team on the other end of the spectrum, but you should be still expecting considerably different results from the 2 teams that has nothing to do with QB play. And it is possible the jail break scenario happens as a larger percentage of the pressures in the 3rd example.

    I'm not saying Miami is unique, I'm saying there are probably one of only 6 or 7 teams that experience the same situation as Miami did.
     
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  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And the league has a problem with oline play.
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    OK.. so let's say we take your third scenario where the coach attempts to cover up for OL weaknesses, and as long as the game situation permits this leads to equal amounts of overall pressure (by your assumption or just hypothetically). So you're saying that you'd see more "jailbreak" pressure when the coach can no longer cover up for OL weaknesses. I agree.

    But how is it possible that in that case the OL doesn't give up more pressure in general? Again, if you game plan so that you reduce or increase the probability any player on the OL gives up pressure, then the conditional probability that 2 players give up pressure, or that 3 or more give up pressure is mathematically determined. So you can change the total amount of pressure but not the relative frequency of different types of pressure.. unless of course you get rid of "random variation" in how players play, which is untenable IMO.
     
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  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Dude, you watched the games right? Teams were routinely rushing only 4, and getting 2 or 3 guys through to the QB. So teams were getting significant pressure WITHOUT blitzing. Which then allows there to be more people out in coverage, which then causes they're to be no open receivers, especially when they aren't good for runners.
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    That happened sometimes yes. All that shows is we had a bad OL. That is in no way evidence that there was a higher percentage of "jailbreak" pressure than "non-jailbreak" pressure, just that our OL gave up more pressure in general (which implies more jailbreak pressure). Again, you see a lot of this "jailbreak" pressure in other games too. We're not arguing about whether we had a bad OL here.
     
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  15. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I feel like you nailed my point in the first paragraph, but I'm not sure I follow on your 2nd.

    In my 3rd scenario, the OL would have given up more pressures then normal, but the strategy prevented the pressure from registering. What I'm saying is if you reduce the number of chances the defense gets at getting pressure, but of those chances they get more jailbreaks, you would have the scenario I described. For example if we give them 10 drop backs that they get to go against the O-line with no shielding, and they pressure on 9 of them but 6 of them are jailbreak styles, 9 for the course of a game isn't a lot, but 6 of them being jailbreaks is probably way above average for that scenario.

    Left to their own devices the OL would have given up tons of pressure, and because we had multiple bad O-line when we finally leave it up to the O-line to protect, the defense would take advantage and get the jailbreak pressure we are talking about, however, due to the relative few times they get that opportunity they don't show a larger then normal overall number of pressures.

    Just to redefine the argument, I was saying that it was possible to get more jail break pressures, while still not giving up more overall pressures.

    My scenario is predicated on the fact that an O-line as a unit is bad enough that it would give up a higher % of jailbreak pressures in relation to the overall number of pressures, but mitigation tactics is the reason that the overall number of pressure is not extremely high.

    And again I was mainly pointing this out as a scenario where this metrics can exist in the NFL, not that specifically the Dolphins did exactly as I said. I THINK the Dolphins might have done this, but I can only say that from an eye test and as you have pointed out before, that's not always reliable.
     
  16. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I’m not trying to remove the bad games the first 5 weeks but even his own coach said he was one of tbe most consistent players on the team during that stretch. So there is that part of it.

    As for your best 8 game numbers being consistent with 12th best assuming that’s all accurate and I will give you the benefit of the doubt in that as your statistical analysis seems genuine what’s exactly wrong with that? Top 12 but trending up when he got injured I mean how is that a negative thing?
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    It's not a negative. Just wished he would have performed like that more consistently.
     
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  18. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Remember it was just 5 or 6 years ago that completion% was one of the go to stats for QBs.

    Now we know air yards thrown, time to throw, the amount of separation the receiver has and what % of similar passes are caught by down and distance. In 2019 raw completion% is seen as a dinosaur stat and the higher level analysts adjust it by the factors listed above. It isn’t too hard to think that in a few years in addition to pressure% there will also data about number of rushers, number of players providing pressure, whether the pressure is from blocked or unblocked pass rushers and so on.

    I know that after the 2013 season I saw you tube clips of all the sacks allowed by the Dolphins and all the sacks Cam Wake got. In 2013 Tannehill was regularly getting murdered on jailbreak sacks where the OL completely whiffed on their blocks, yet Cam Wake didn’t have a single jailbreak sack, he had to fight through a block for every single one.. so I do believe their is something to the jailbreak sack issue.
     
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  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If the whole league has a problem with offensive line play, then it can’t possibly be a determinant of variation in quarterback play. Quarterback play would be completely independent of offensive line play, if in fact the entire league has a problem with it.

    If there is no variation in offensive line play, how can it possibly cause variation across the league in quarterback play?
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah, there's value here to starting off with what we know (or is highly likely to be true) rather than what might be true. We know there is random variation in how individual players play. In practice "random" in this case means that two different players on the OL are not trying to work together to deliberately let 2 rushers through as opposed to just 1 for example. That is, we are assuming that each player is trying their best to prevent pressure independent of what that other player does, regardless of the situation he is in.

    If you make that assumption you're almost forced into the argument I was making. Since both aren't working together to deliberately allow more "jailbreak" pressure than "non-jailbreak" pressure, the probabilities are independent of each other. So if there is a 50% probability of player 1 allowing pressure and a 20% probability of player 2 allowing pressure in a given situation, then the probability they both allow pressure is simply 0.5*0.2 = 0.1 = 10%. That's the "joint probability" of two independent event occurring.

    Of course, different situations can change each individual's probability of allowing pressure. You could create situations where that 50% for player 1 might substantially decrease or that 20% for player 2 might increase, but as long as each is trying to prevent pressure independently, then the relative frequencies are determined by joint probability.
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah I'll agree that with better stats we can do better analysis, and that we should have better stats in the future. In fact, that's really important to point out because right now we don't have a good OL stat.

    But there are mathematical reasons for arguing that the relative frequency of "jailbreak" pressure is likely to remain similar regardless of circumstance so this particular argument I doubt will be affected by that.
     
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  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    They run the ball more frequently and throw screen passes. Everything is a quick release...which means there is no opportunity for pressure even on a "jail break".

    For instance, Gase's favorite play on 3rd and 15? Run up the middle. 3rd and 6? Screen pass OR short pass to let the defender fight for his way past the sticks. 3rd and short? Throw an intermediate route since the defense has their run stuffers on the field and the safety is cheated up. That's how you effectively eliminate pressure with a bad OL....you play super conservative football and ask your QB to do very little.

    We've seen it so many times I can't believe this is even a conversation still. Tannehill would start the game a perfect 10/10 with about 18 net yards before YAC was added in. That's the offense we played until the scoreboard dictated differently, and there would be no pressure on those 10 throws since the ball was out so fast. Later in the game, when he had to go traditional, teams would blitz and the story would change since our boy was pressured almost 100% of the time.

    Yet because he didn't have pressure on his 14 screen passes of the day, the stats tell a vastly different story...maybe he was only pressured on 30% of his drop-backs total. That's how you get a seemingly normal "pressure rate" yet a seemingly high sack/hit rate with a lousy interior line.
     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    These statistics regarding pressure are for pass dropbacks only, not runs, and they span the years 2012 through 2016, of which there was only one season of Adam Gase.
     
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  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    He's talking about screen plays as if that somehow means the Dolphins didn't have bad oline play. One reason you might be seeing an increase in screen plays league wide is because oline play is poor all around. I do believe we ran so many screens to try to alleviate our oline problems. However, when teams can rush 4 and have 7 in coverage, screens are still hard to run successfully...and we all saw how terrible our screen plays were, more often than not.
     
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  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Man, we routinely faced only 4 man rushes, and gave up quick pressure from multiple points very often. I used to constantly point this out in gameday threads over the years. Do you have stats showing jailbreak percentages? That being said, I'm not calling a 4 man rush a jailbreak. I saying I watched the Dolphins oline routinely give up quick pressure from only 4 man rushes. Teams didn't even have to blitz. In fact, want Tannehill actually pretty good when teams blitzed? They didn't have to blitz. They'd rush 4, get quick pressure, and force Tannehill to throw into tight windows.
     
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  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I haven't seen any, which was the point I made earlier about there being no actual evidence for the assertion the Dolphins suffered an abnormally high percentage of jailbreaks. That's why we have to make inferences. See post #500.

    See post #500. Maybe your mind remembers those "jailbreaks" (a cool word but we have to remember this is a continuum, not something that occurs suddenly past a threshold) but not the other cases where one guy got through but not two for example. Like I told Pauly, there are actually mathematical reasons here why overall pressure might change, but jailbreak percentage won't.

    Not saying it's impossible of course. I mean a coach could certainly force the issue by calling a play that deliberately allows multiple defenders to get through on one side so they're too far upfield, etc... But in general, I wouldn't expect much difference in jailbreak percentage when different players on the OL are trying to prevent pressure independently of other players on the OL.
     
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  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The other issue here is, during the period of time to which these stats pertain (2012-2016), Tannehill was also slightly below the average of the 18 QBs for whom there is data in terms of his performance when not pressured.

    So, it's a little tough to make the argument that whatever pressure the Dolphins' offensive line was surrendering during that time was responsible for his performance, when even when the Dolphins' offensive line surrendered no pressure, Tannehill's performance was but average.

    Compare that to Russell Wilson, for example, who performed significantly better than Tannehill when pressured and when not pressured.
     
  28. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    He’d get hit before his back foot could hit in his drop. Most of the time from both outside and inside immediate pressure.

    rush 3 drop 8 rush 4 drop 7 and get home before his back foot could even hit. These weren’t even overload blitzes or zone blitz schemes or cover 0 even.

    just my 3 or my 4 is better than your 5 on long downs and distances. 3rd and plus 8 we’d have no chance he’d have to either dump it to the underneath usually back option or eat it.

    and every dc in tbe league knew it. Gase did a better job of limiting the o line exposure by calling draw plays when we were behind the sticks on 2nd down to try and regain them. Pin ear opportunities we’d run a draw and get back into more manageable 3rd downs. That helped the protection too. That’s how frank gore became his first and 2nd down lead back. He pressed tbe los and maintained/regained the sticks and gained the yards the play call relative to the defense played offered up. Whereas mr east west Kenyan Drake was relegated to 3rd down back.

    in 2018 we couldn’t protect a max protect pa vertical shot to save our lives. A lot of that rided on gase insistence of Mike gesicki in max protect at the critical block point or poa in the run game even and he couldn’t in 2018 block a paper bag if his life depended on it. He treated it like all tight ends are created equal. Yeah duh adam not with that frame they aren’t.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
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  29. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I hate the Wilson comparison. During those years they had not a good d but a 5 year run of pure all timer level d.

    they also had a league leader level run game admittedly though Wilson was doing some of the driving of that. When marshawn Lynch wasn’t bull dozing the opposition into bits.

    Not to mention forcing every team because of the run game threat to play 8 man boxes to try and offset most of which still couldnt stop the run out of and never having to pivot to a plan b gameplan wise on offense cause the defense was dropping 7 ppg average during that stretch.

    I can win a lot of games if I only have to score 10 points to win them. I can stay in a lot of games also under that scenario and I can most importantly stick with plan a scheme and gameplan wise a full 4 quarters. 2nd and 6, 2nd and 4, 3rd and 2 I mean where do I sign up? Hell I can design plays you won’t ever even sniff my qb in that scenario all game long. I saw entire playoff games where Wilson never threw a pass out of anything other than play action. You kidding me? That’s called ideal world scenario.

    that’s a luxury Miami and tannehill have never had. Hell we’ve never even had a top half of the league grade o line or defense since tannehill got here. Let alone a top 5 anything.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    That's not true for 2012 and 2013. Our defense was top 10 in 2012 and 2013 by points allowed (most important measure of defense):
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/index.htm

    The z-scores were 0.801 in 2012 and 0.6055 in 2013, which correspond to top 22nd percentile in 2012 and top 28th percentile in 2013. All other years (2014-2018) we were slightly below average or way below average on defense.
     
  31. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Well I’m shocked frankly. Cause I sure can’t recall any defense ever being worth it’s salt.

    but we are talking about his rookie year when he was surrounded by Davon Bess and Brian between the 20s only hartline as his “playmakers” and year 2 with mike Sherman wasn’t it and his figured out offense that if I recall correctly had a snap count that was one go for a run and two goes for a pass and a fullback dive call with polite I think it was which you could set your watch to situationally.

    one of those years that full back dive stuff was figured out from week 1 even.
     
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  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Why does any of that matter if 1) when you clean all that up completely and Tannehill experiences no pressure, he plays no better than the average quarterback does under those circumstances, and 2) the Dolphins' offensive line cleaned all that up just as often as did the average team between 2012 and 2016?
     
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    First, Wilson has gone on to play just as well throughout his career, despite significant variation across his career in the team variables mentioned above (defense, running game).

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsRu00.htm

    Second, the post quoted above implies that there are strong correlations between quarterbacks' performances and those other team variables (defense, running game), when in fact that isn't true, and those correlations are in fact relatively weak, meaning that quarterbacks' performances are largely independent of them. Quarterbacks' performances are driven largely by their own individual ability, not those other team variables.
     
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  34. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Lol not a single page i didnt roll my eyes on either...
     
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This is actually one of the most interesting threads in the forum right now because it has a lot to do with people's perceptions of where to lay blame for the team's misfortunes over the past seven seasons, during the Tannehill era. The more Tannehill plays for another team, the more insight we get in that regard.
     
  36. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    You are the one that referenced 2012 to 2016 with Wilson and conveniently or maybe purposely left out any real world application of the differences in what each qb had to work with.

    As if that doesn’t matter. Just numbers in a vacuum type application.

    And what’s this it doesn’t matter what’s around the qb as to qb success or level of play? Since when.

    I’ve seen more QBs get exposed once they no longer had those crutches.
     
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  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What those QBs had to work with means little when both QBs have had significant variation in their surroundings throughout their careers and their own play hasn't varied correspondingly. So it really isn't worth mentioning. We aren't still talking about Tannehill and Wilson's first seasons in the league here. We're a long way down the road now.
     
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    so what? One guy still drive down a nice freshly paved 4 lane highway, while the other was driving down a crowded dirt highway full of crazy foreign drivers in India. One guys career will look a lot better, regardless of difference in ability. One guys situation allowed growth and development, one guys didn’t. I could go on and on.
     
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  39. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I quoted a post where you referenced 2012 to 2016.
     
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  40. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Exactly.
     
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