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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, I'm not convinced that Brady's numbers this year were because he's declining. He had terrible weapons on offense.
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think that's wildly off mark, especially for the 2003 season SB: 32-29 is the final score when league average in points scored is 20.8, both QB's throw for 3 TD's while Vinatieri misses 2 FG's, but sure it's "defense and ST" and not offense.

    No, offense was pretty clearly more important in the 2003 SB. I can see the argument for defense in 2001, while 2004 is a toss-up. I mean there is a reason Deion Branch (a WR!!) was voted SB MVP (2004 season). No it wasn't "defense and ST".
     
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  3. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    His weapons were bad but so were a lot more of his throws, even taking that into account.

    I'm not saying he cant or wont play at an above average level another year or two, but I think it's clear he couldnt make all the same throws this year consistently.
     
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  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, I'll admit, I don't look at particular throws, not my thing. But, historically, Brady has been like an upper 80s passer without Gronk. So, to me, with no Gronk and no weapons to throw to, I was not at all surprised by his overall stats. I think Brady would have looked just fine if he'd had Gronk, or some other seam threat with great hands.
     
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  5. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    His stats this past year were actually very similar to 2006 and 2013 when his WR were equally as garbage. The following years when they improved the weapons he went back to being top 3 QB production. He can consistently produce more with less compared to other franchise QBs who wouldn't be caught dead on a team without a Pro Bowl WR, but there is in fact a limit to how bad a supporting cast can be.



    Unless you really want to argue a 32 year old Edelman hobbled by injuries, Dorsett who has accomplished next to nothing 5 seasons into his career, and Nkeal Harry who missed half the season and never learned how to get separation in college is a reasonable supporting cast for any QB. Not to mention the nonexistent TE position.
     
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  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    As Miami fans, we've been told for years that good QBs elevate the play of their teammates.....
     
  7. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Well I'm not saying I've extensively charted every throw myself, definitely not!

    The lack of talent around him absolutely impacted things and like I said I dont think hes "done" entirely or anything.

    I do think if we compare him to himself though there was some falling off the horse. There were times the throw was there to be had and he made some very uncharacteristic mistakes.

    One play I know you saw was the pick 6 against us. I'm not saying that one play alone defines his year either just using it as an example of something that happened more often to him this year.

    On that particular play he had two open WR and somehow managed to throw a duck to neither of them in particular. There was no reason for that play to have resulted the way it did, and 99 out of 100 times in his career he has made that easy throw.

    I've heard he played with a sore elbow portions of the year but due to his age I think that is just part of life for him now as a QB.

    In other words, this year I saw a lot of a Brady who knew where he wanted to go with the ball and talent issues aside couldnt always get it there.
     
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  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, I don't disagree. However, there were also times where I saw what at first looked like a bad throw, and then I'd see Brady gesturing to the receiver where he SHOULD have gone. Knowing how complex the Patriots offense is, I think far more of the bad throws were on receivers who weren't diagnosing what they were seeing as they were running routes, and were not on the same page as Brady. Of course he's going to have some bad throws, he's 43. I hate Brady, but I don't think he is as far in the decline as many others think/hope.
     
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  9. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Im not sure why tannehill got comeback player of the year. I guess he qualifies since he wasnt a day 1 starter. He should be most improved player.
     
  10. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Well he did get most improved player too.

    But when you consider how many other teams had the opportunity to trade for Tannehill but didn’t, and he was acquired to be a backup to a mediocre-at-best Mariota that gives you a fair idea of how low Tannehill’s stock had fallen in the NFL.
    The Broncos took Flacco over him. The Bears thought they were better off with Trubinsky. For some reason Tampa still believed that the human turnover machine was better than him. The redskins thought, nah we’re fine with Case Keenum. And that’s just the teams where I thought it was pretty obvious Tannehill would have been an upgrade at the start of the season. You can make a case for the teams with rookie or sophomore QBs wanting to see what they had, but at the end of the day even teams with dreadful QBs didn’t think Tannehill who could be acquired for a 4th round pick, was a better option than their starting QB.

    So yeah I do think the comeback player of the year is deserved.
     
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Looks like I'm going to be wrong about the Super Bowl winner, but this is exactly the kind of game Tannehill needs to be competitive at this level, where his team's pass defense makes the Patrick Mahomes types play uncharacteristically poorly, which allows the Tannehill types to compete when playing at their typical level. Garoppolo is at a passer rating of 101.4 at this point, which is typical for him, and Mahomes is at a lowly 49.8, highly atypical for him. Compare that to the 120+ the Titans gave up to Mahomes.
     
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And here's why we need a single-game measure of quarterback play that's better than traditional passer rating: Patrick Mahomes just went 5 for 5 for 60 yards and a touchdown pass on a highly influential drive in the game, and his traditional passer rating is still but 79.9. Traditional passer rating does nothing to incorporate the change in win probability for the Chiefs as a function of Mahomes's play on that drive.

    According to ESPN.com, the Chiefs' win probability changed by roughly 43% on that drive.
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Love it!! Mahomes and KC win! It's a bit like revenge against the 49ers for them preventing Marino from getting his SB win in '84.

    Gotta love Mahomes though. Helps lead his team down 24-0 in the division championships, down 17-7 in the AFC championships, and down 20-10 in the SB to win each time. Not only is he the best QB in the NFL but he's also clutch (modern day Marino but WITH a SB win).

    Oh, and that purely stats based prediction of 30-17 turned out not to be too far off lol
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/titans-to-start-ryan-tannehill.94693/page-139#post-3249389
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    One of the better pass defenses in the league appeared inept against Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense from the midway point of the fourth quarter on, when the Chiefs scored 21 points in 5+ minutes.
     
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  15. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    Is it conceivable that this could be the Dolphins in 2022 or 2023 with Tua? I think so.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    This year was no exception to the general rule that you either need a QB that's well above average to win the SB or one that plays that way in that particular year. Get Tua, end the QB problems we've had since Marino retired, and if Flores can build a good defense then yes that could be the Dolphins in 2-3 years.

    Turnarounds can come relatively quickly in the NFL, and very good coaches tend to show their mettle relatively early (within 3-4 years with some exceptions of course) so yeah.. that's the plan and hope.
     
  17. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Barring career ending injury, he will go down as the GOAT...hands down. At least, that's my prediction.
     
  18. keypusher

    keypusher Well-Known Member

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  19. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    well it is appropriate given that the QB we couldn’t win with and the HB we couldn’t win with were both key components of teams that made deep SB runs. Yet some people on these forums still insist Adam Gase is a good coach.
     
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  20. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Mahomes is great dont get me wrong - but he doesnt really impress me all that much. He looked pretty bad for almost the whole game until the end. Niners defense did a pretty good job throughout the game. Love their speed on defense, i wish our pass rush was just as good. Garoppolo did not impress at all either, with a better QB play, Niners would of won this game easy.
     
  21. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    LOLZ. Top bantz. :sidelol:
     
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  22. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Don’t get your hopes up too quickly McCool. Andy Reid has been in KC for 7 years before being crowned Super Bowl Camps.

    If you’re going to try and see any similarities in the two teams from last night and comparisons to the Dolphins, I’d look more at SF. John Lynch became GM in 2017 and in those 3 seasons, he acquired 46 of the 53 players on their roster, gutting completely and rebuilding.

    Sound familiar?
     
  23. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I think I had SF more in mind than KC when I said it, them having had a similar 2018/19 record to ours this year.

    I'm not expecting as quick a turnaround as SF but I don't see why we shouldn't be in the mix in 21/22. We certainly have the recruitment space to get it done. I nailed my colours to the mast a long time ago and I'm just repeating myself again but for me, it all starts with drafting Tua.
     
  24. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Seriously?
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Along these lines, the traditional passer rating differential last night was about 9 points, whereas the QBR differential was about 20. The latter of those numbers reflects what Mahomes did to win the game in the clutch and what Garoppolo did not.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    ??? I can't believe you would (once again) bring up a secret formula as an example of an improvement to a transparent formula. You don't even know how ESPN calculates QBR and you think it's clearly an improvement to traditional passer rating?!?

    And it's not like the ratings make intuitive sense either. Remember, not even ESPN can explain how Charlie Batch's 3 TD, 2 INT game in 2010 was the "greatest game ever played by a QB" according to their secret formula with a 99.9 QBR rating. People who have looked at that game (the tape) can't explain why that game should be considered a "very good" game by a QB, much less the greatest. ESPN didn't even attempt a defense either. They just made sure that game no longer appeared on the list of greatest QBR games ever by artificially adding a passing attempt threshold of more than 17 lol. They didn't change the formula though! The 99.9 is still there:
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/1490/type/nfl/year/2010

    Listen, transparency is necessary if you want to argue one formula is "better" than another. That should be obvious, and if that's not obvious there is something very wrong about what you think is proper statistical methodology.
     
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  27. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Are you a fan of Grier? Do you think he has the tools to be a successful GM like Lynch?
     
  28. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Great regular season QB - wasnt impressed in the playoffs by his play. Especially the SB yesterday.
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There is some degree of transparency with regard to QBR. We know the ingredients involved, and we know that some of them -- most notably expected points added and win probability added, both of which contextualize the quarterback's performance -- are not included in traditional passer rating.

    There's a reason why traditional passer rating is less valid for small sample sizes (i.e., one game) than it is for large ones (i.e., seasons or careers). Its transparency does nothing to resolve that issue. QBR, while less transparent, at least includes the ingredients in its formulation whose absence from traditional passer rating is intuitively what makes traditional passer rating less valid for small samples than for large ones.

    In other words, for small sample sizes, I'm willing to trade some transparency for the ingredients that we know contribute to validity, knowing that there will be inevitable error with both measures. For large sample sizes, I'm happy sticking with traditional passer rating.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020
  30. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Yeah definitely not impressed by his ability to score 21 points in half a quarter to completely flip a 10 point deficit with multiple big throws and smart decisions. How edgy.
     
  31. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I agree.

    He was doing everything well; hard running and getting few yards after the initial hits, receiving and being hard to bring down, and blocking which is something I have never paid too much attention to before. On a team with a lot of good players, I thought he was the stand out and the real backbone of the team.

    I thought he was their most valuable player.

    How is it we let him go?
     
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  32. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Again, seriously? He overcame double-digit deficits in every single game to win by double-digits. If that doesn't impress you, nothing will.
     
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  33. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    That argument makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    EVERY statistic is less valid over small sample sizes because random variation underlies every statistic and the more samples you get the more precise the estimate. That's true for ESPN's QBR too, so it's not like there's anything special w.r.t. passer rating when it comes to "small sample sizes". If QBR is better than passer rating over small sample sizes then it MUST be better over large sample sizes.

    So there's absolutely no logic in saying one should choose QBR for small sample sizes but passer rating for large ones lol.

    Secondly, of the 10,000 lines of code it takes to calculate QBR, only a few lines are necessary for incorporating EPA and win probability because those can be done by look-up tables. In other words, MOST of the rest is proprietary stuff. If I had to guess what most of that code looks like it's a bunch of "if-then" statements (conditional statements) where they're trying to specify how much credit the QB should get in situation X or Y. It's hard to come up with a general theory of how to do that which explains why you'd need so many lines of code.

    That also means you have no idea why the QBR difference in one game was greater than the passer rating difference.

    Regardless, your choice in going with a non-transparent approach puts you squarely outside the world of valid statistical analysis. I don't want people to confuse your view here with "valid statistical analysis". This is worse than cherry picking. At least with cherry picking you can see what's happening. This is saying "there's this unknown method for determining how good the QB is and I'm going to trust it".
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I suspect he'll become the highest-paid player in league history in the near future.
     
  35. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    If Jimmy G could hit a deep pass, this would’ve been nailed and so would’ve another half of my bets!!

    Ill take chop. Fun game.
     
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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The last sentence above (which I highlighted) is where I think our signals are getting crossed. I'm not using QBR as a measure of how good a QB is; I'm using it only as a measure of how well a QB performed in a single game.

    And yes it's true that every statistic is less valid over small sample sizes, which is why I said there is inevitable error with both measures, even for one game. But the main point is that I'm willing to trade some transparency for the ingredients traditional passer rating doesn't have, that make it even less valid a single-game measure in my opinion than QBR.
     
  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I've bragged here the past few years that my daughter's school won their state championship- the person Jimmy G overthrew in the 4th (Deebo Samuel) went to my kid's high school the year before they won their 1st championship. So everyone in this area was bummed out by that play for two reasons- it was pretty darn cool having that personal interest in the game last night. If Deebo could have laid out and caught that ball he had a legit shot at Super Bowl MVP!
     
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  38. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Same thing. The degree to which you can determine how well a QB performed in a single game is directly related to the degree to which you can determine how good that QB is once you average out random variation.

    Your choice. But it's not valid statistical methodology. And from a purely logical perspective, you are arguing that QBR is more valid than traditional passer rating over large sample sizes too.
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, but I'm not ready to discard traditional passer rating as the gold standard for QB ability over the long haul, precisely because QBR isn't fully transparent. However, given that traditional passer rating is so much less valid a measure of performance for single games than for larger samples in my opinion, I don't feel like there's a sacrifice involved in replacing it with QBR for single games.

    In other words, if both measures can't be distinguished from garbage for single games, then you might as well go with the one that has the better ingredients. Over the long haul, however, there's no reason to discard traditional passer rating because it does a valid job of measuring performance without the transparency concerns.

    I suspect this is reflected objectively as well, where there is likely a convergence between traditional passer rating and QBR as a function of sample size. And so the measures are probably interchangeable over the long haul, in which case it makes sense to go with the fully transparent one. Over the short haul, however, if both are garbage then the more valid one is likely the one that has more ingredients related to winning.

    Again I think you have to give QBR some credence when you watch last night's game for example and find that the traditional passer rating differential was about 9 points, whereas the QBR differential was about 20. Mahomes certainly outplayed Garoppolo by the bigger margin of the two measures in my opinion.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020
  40. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Deebo was the best offensive 49er on the field hands down.
     
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