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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So the only thing that changed for Lewis was not having Brady?
     
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  2. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    And yet Manning and Brady have played very similarly in the post season.

    Just stop. You're not able to understand what's going on. Nearly everything you've written has been debunked.

    You have a preconceived notion about Brady, probably because you're fairly ignorant about football and you were 8 years old when he came into the league. No one here is claiming that Brady isn't a HoF QB. Hell, no one here is even saying that there isn't an argument for Brady being better than Manning (I don't believe that). However, there is no way that Manning was a "choker" in the post season. There is also no way to show that Brady was better by any measurable way than Manning in the post season unless you look at wins. And wins are TEAM accomplishments.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I've tried to stay out of this sillyness as long as possible, but I think it's time to share the average Miami fan's opinion.

    Brady + Belichek + Adams= the best football trio of all time. And because they got caught cheating over and over and over again, they're all losers in my book. I wouldn't put Brady in my top-100 quarterbacks because of deflated footballs and stolen signals/playbooks alone.
     
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  4. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I totally agree. However, I have seen arguments that people have made in regards to Brady being GOAT (or close) that made sense. I don't agree, but at least they aren't the "He doesn't choke" and "He has 6 rings" nonsense.
     
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  5. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Says the guy that took out the 2008 season to make Manning seem like he had better RBs.

    Lololol. You've been exposed
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Sack percentage is deceiving. It doesn't tell you as much about how good an OL is, or how good a RB you have, as you'd think.

    Do you think Tannehill played with a good RB and OL in Tennessee in 2019? Or at minimum better than he had in Miami?

    There's not a person who would answer NO to that question, nor would anyone who watched the Dolphins say the Dolphins had a good OL, yet Tannehill sack% in 2019 was 9.8% which is WAY higher than his sack% of 7.9% in Miami.

    Or do you think Montana played with a good OL, RB and WR? His teams were stacked. Yet his sack% is 5.49% which is higher than both Brady and Peyton. Peyton actually has the lowest sack% of ALL starting QB at 3.13%, tied with Marino. Marino never had a good running game. So sack% doesn't tell you what you think it does. It's a VERY tricky stat.
     
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  7. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Are you stupid? Can you not see the 2008 season for Indy?
     
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  8. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Nothing changes the fact that you included a season Brady played just 1 game in, to try and boost the NE YPC numbers to make it look like they were better than INDY RB's.
     
  9. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Still waiting for someone to explain to me how having a better defense and better coach helps you put up better stats. I don't see it. I see it the other way: fewer shootouts and fewer chances to throw.

    Aleo, ease explain how points allowed is better than total yards allowed when measuring a defense, when there are so many factors, like the offense or special teams giving up points/field position. I guess in your world Kansas City was a superior defense to Denver in 2015 then, right?

    Fact of the matter is both Manning and Brady played with horrible defenses and both played with great defenses.

    In fact, 2015 Broncos defense is probably the best ever. If not, it has to be considered as ONE of the greatest.

    If Michael Jordan had 2 rings instead of 6 and underperformed in the playoffs while still dominating in the regular season do you think he would still be unanimously touted as the greatest basketball player ever? I personally don't think so.

    As far as Montana goes..those late 80's early 90's teams were a product of money.

    2007 Brady, 398 completions, 578 attempts, 68.9 comp %,4,806 yards, 50 TD, 8.7 TD%, 8INT, 6.3TD/INT, 117.2 QB Rating, 88.2 QBR (Best ever recorded)

    2013 Manning- 450 completions, 659 attempts, 68.3 comp %, 5,477 yards, 55TD, 8.3TD%, 10INT, 5.5TD/INT, 115.1 QB Rating, 82.2QBR (8th best ever recorded)



    The only categories Manning beat Brady in are 100% volume dependent. Manning's 659 attempts in 2013 are 9th most all time. Brady's 578 attempts in 2007? 88th all time.
     
  10. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    This graph clearly demonstrates how the game point differential relates to the rushing game. The big change in the 4th quarter is consistent with what I remember seeing in most of the games I've ever watched.
     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    First of all, I introduced defense into the equation to point out the effect on win% (esp. SB's), not passing stats. But since you bring it up, it's well known (now to you also well known) that passing efficiency goes WAY up when you're ahead. Look at the splits of almost any QB and you'll see how much better they do when they're ahead vs. behind. Or do the same for any season and you'll see a huge difference.

    Without adjusting for era, which in this case probably won't affect the final result much, you can see Brady was 9.1 points higher in passer rating when leading than when trailing while Peyton was 12.3 point higher when leading:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/splits/
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00/splits/

    When the discussion is about what helps teams WIN, it should be obvious that the score itself is the most important stat. All the factors leading to that score are worthy discussion points, but in the end it's the score itself that matters. That's why the most important offensive stat is points scored and the most important defensive stat is points allowed IF you're talking about what influences win%.

    Yes, but on average Brady's was MUCH better. Personally, I think Peyton probably would have 4 SB's if he played with Brady's defense. Brady likely still beats Peyton out on that measure, but I bet Peyton would be a popular choice for best ever with the likes of Montana and Brady if he had the fortune of playing with Brady's defense.

    That's not true. Manning beats Brady in career passing efficiency and wins added: career z-score of 1.2379 to 1.0775, as well as wins added with FEWER games: 41.2 for Peyton vs. 28 for Brady.

    Both are great, and it's not easy to argue one is better than the other statistically.. unless you overweight SB wins.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
  12. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wow...are you trolling?

    If it makes you feel any better you can remove the 2008 season and see if it really matters. lololo

    Wait, you're obviously not good at math, even very simple math, I'll do it for you.

    With 2008- 4.27
    Without 2008- 4.23

    You ****ing dolt...lol
     
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  13. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I have read a lot of stupid posts in my life, but this is right up there with the best of them. Seriously man...just stop.
     
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  14. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Dont act like you werent trying to do that, after I called you out.

    You have been dismissed.
     
  15. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    hahahah!! You are really dumb.
     
  16. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  17. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Your a big stat guy so argueing with you is pointless. NEs defenses throughout years has been overrated. Good but not great, this season was easily exposed.

    A great example against the freaking Dolphins who had pratice squad basically players against NE.

    Brady had just marched down the field to give the Pats a 4 point lead with like 4 minutes left: the D crapped the bed
     
  18. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Ouch, your insults really hurt man. I mean they are about as good as a mosquito trying to draw blood
     
  19. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This cashvillesent guy is doing nothing more than copying and pasting our posts and using them to argue AGAINST Brady on another forum...hahahahah....

    I think this guy is mental
     
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  20. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lol man I don’t visit often but I come here wondering why a Tannehill thread is on fire. And it’s Brady vs Manning.

    cbrad, what are the splits for dome vs outdoors? Curious to that.
     
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  21. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    No it is pure genius, and wins the internet today.
     
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  22. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pure genius for a lonely, pathetic, sociopath....lol
     
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  23. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    For Brady and Manning? Brady is 12.6 passer rating points higher indoors while Peyton is 5.1 passer rating points higher indoors:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/splits/
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00/splits/

    Neither is adjusted for era but adjusting probably won't make much difference. Here's a guy on the internet that looked at 15 QB's (looks like 2 years ago?) and found that combined they have about a 4.5 passer rating point advantage indoors vs. outdoors:


    I don't have the "indoor" vs. "outdoor" stat for any database I've downloaded so I can't do a more complete study.
     
  24. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Here is one thread I found. Note, did not vet the numbers (ain't got time for dat) and they don't include Brady's 2019 season which would obviously give him a hit.



    EDIT: Just linked the same thing you did. Lol
     
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  25. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Is the 14 game sample for Brady indoors too small? 411 attempts. I remember you had minimum threshold number of attempts to be significant.

    Playing a minimum of half your games indoors every year has to be a material benefit. And not playing San Diego or Miami but in butt freezing temps is something too (Rodgers is just a beast, but then post 2004 maybe).
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Let's try to figure out how the cold weather benefitted him too. Can't just look at outdoors. Changes with the seasons. Lol
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The standard error (this is the standard deviation of averages.. so what does the standard deviation look like when each data point is an average) for passer ratings over 14 games is about 10 passer rating points, so none of those numbers will be "statistically significant". At that small sample size you'd need about a 20 passer rating point difference before concluding it's too unlikely to occur by chance alone.

    So the estimate for all QB's might be useful, but it's not for any single QB.

    As far as the minimum number of attempts I use, keep in mind that's consecutive attempts, and the threshold (and this is really a minimum!) is 150 because with fewer attempts than that you'll almost never be able to distinguish through a hypothesis test whether an Aaron Rodgers is really a better QB than Ryan Fitzgerald. Sometimes you can but it's rare. Start going past 150 and it becomes easier. Like I said, that's a minimum threshold but only for consecutive passing attempts.
     
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  28. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I find it strange the bashing the Houston Astros, players staff and front office are getting... yet for everything Brady and Belichick been up to, they still get treated like royalty, even among dolphin fans..

    why does cheating matter more in baseball than football?
     
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  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right? Pete Rose is still banned, and he didn't even cheat. Brady and BB will go into the HoF first ballot.
     
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  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Wait a second- online that's plagiarism and copyright infringement; it's an actual crime to use someone else's written statement as your own. Any original text on the internet is highly protected from that exact sort of thing- to the tune of up to a $5,000 fine PER INSTANCE from the Department of Justice once a cease and desist attempt is made.

    Cashvillesent, this is your public notice to cease and desist. Remove all plagiarized content from this/other sites immediately and cross your fingers that Dan or this site's owners don't pursue civil/criminal charges.
     
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I was wondering about that...
     
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  33. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's time for this thread to die.
     
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  34. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Thanks very much for doing that.
    When I did a similar look at the data using win% I got a much more pronounced slope. Although the win% data uses the point spread as a starting point, so it may have more data points of good teams -v- bad teams pushed into the extremes than points differential.
     
  35. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    This thread is Dracula, you can’t kill it.
     
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  36. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    There is almost nothing to talk about until March
     
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  37. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Wayne and Edge arent HOF players without Manning. Hes basically responsible for two above average players being able to put up HOF numbers.

    Also Emmanuel Sanders is worse than Welker so I'm not sure why hes on there.
     
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  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Go away Boomer.
     
  39. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    bbqpitlover didn't know what the future held starting this one. Good job Tannehill way to not just die.
     
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  40. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Sure thing TT.
     

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