Ryan Tannehill

NextGenStats on #Titans ' Tannehill:
-- 2nd-highest QB rating of weekend (133.9)
-- Longest in-air pass completion of weekend (57 yds)
-- Threw 31.6% of pass attempts into a tight window (defender within 1 yd or less), 2nd-highest pctg. of weekend

*Ryan Tannehill's 133.9 passer rating today vs @Chiefs gave him his third passer rating over 100 in four games since taking over the starting QB role for the @Titans.

Tannehill was credited with his 16th career game-winning drive, including his 3rd in four starts with #Titans .

*In his last 16 starts, Ryan Tannehill has thrown for:
3191 passing yards
28 TD's
13 INT's
& 9-7 team record.

* Titans have made 10 trips to the red zone since Ryan Tannehill took over as starting quarterback in Week 7. They’ve scored touchdowns all 10 times.

Tennessee now leads the NFL with 72% of red-zone trips resulting in a TD.

perMCM

• Passer Rating: 107.7 (7th in the NFL)

• Completion Percentage: 70.2% (5th in the NFL)

• Net Yards Per Pass Attempt*: 6.99 (10th in the NFL)

• Pass Success Rate: 50% (11th in the NFL)

• Yards Per Offensive Play: 6.3 (5th in the NFL)

• Yards Per Rush Attempt: 5.31 (3rd in the NFL)

• Points Per Game: 26.3 (10th in the NFL)

I fucking love it.

Love. It.

"The Guy wrote:

Given that one can compare quarterbacks to each other over large sample sizes in terms of how much their performance is diminished against better defenses, it isn't a simplistic statement. If for example the best quarterbacks in the league have their passer ratings diminished by the best defenses in the league by (hypothetically) 5 points on average, and Ryan Tannehill has his diminished by 15 points on average, then the comparison between Tannehill and those quarterbacks is informative with regard to what to reasonably expect from Tannehill in the playoffs, when teams are very likely to face such defenses.

It turns out Tannehill actually performs slightly better than average against better defenses and slightly worse than average against weaker defenses, though the effect is truly marginal. In fact, the best description of Tannehill is that he's just average.

Below I plotted passer ratings adjusted to 2019 (I did not include Tannehill's games this year.. so this is only Miami games) against the year end passer ratings allowed for each team he faced. The dotted line is the identity line, meaning that's what you'd expect a perfectly average QB to perform like. The purple line is Tannehill.

So, there are two things that have to be noted when looking at this kind of plot:
1) Where do the lines intersect
2) How do the slopes of the lines compare

The intersection of those two lines is at 92.17 which is almost exactly at the 2019 league average (so far) of 92.3. So the intersection point tells you that on average Tannehill is.. average.. against pass defenses (it's no surprise.. Tannehill is statistically very close to a truly average QB no matter how you look at things). That is, it's not like most of the time he's playing above average or below average.

The reason the slope is important is because it tells you whether the QB performs better against better pass defenses or against weaker pass defenses. And you can see that Tannehill actually performs very slightly better against stronger pass defenses.

So while this says nothing about your "clutch" statement (there you can use evidence with his splits that he was really bad in Miami when trailing late in the game for example) it does show that he wasn't making his living against weak pass defenses while here in Miami.

"resnor wrote:

I ****ing love it.

Love. It.

Me too, but I love that this six-week Tannehill thread actually started talking about Tannehill again even more!

"cuchulainn wrote:

NextGenStats on #Titans ' Tannehill:
-- 2nd-highest QB rating of weekend (133.9)
-- Longest in-air pass completion of weekend (57 yds)
-- Threw 31.6% of pass attempts into a tight window (defender within 1 yd or less), 2nd-highest pctg. of weekend

*Ryan Tannehill's 133.9 passer rating today vs @Chiefs gave him his third passer rating over 100 in four games since taking over the starting QB role for the @Titans.

Tannehill was credited with his 16th career game-winning drive, including his 3rd in four starts with #Titans .

*In his last 16 starts, Ryan Tannehill has thrown for:
3191 passing yards
28 TD's
13 INT's
& 9-7 team record.

* Titans have made 10 trips to the red zone since Ryan Tannehill took over as starting quarterback in Week 7. They’ve scored touchdowns all 10 times.

Tennessee now leads the NFL with 72% of red-zone trips resulting in a TD.

perMCM

• Passer Rating: 107.7 (7th in the NFL)

• Completion Percentage: 70.2% (5th in the NFL)

• Net Yards Per Pass Attempt*: 6.99 (10th in the NFL)

• Pass Success Rate: 50% (11th in the NFL)

• Yards Per Offensive Play: 6.3 (5th in the NFL)

• Yards Per Rush Attempt: 5.31 (3rd in the NFL)

• Points Per Game: 26.3 (10th in the NFL)

I could care less about stats or what a game winning drive constitutes. Despite these numbers backing up his level of play. I’ve seen all 4 starts and watched every snap even and he’s played a plus qb in Tennessee thru 4 games on tape. I don’t care what anyone cherry picks numbers wise etc. the tape says as much and Tennessee’s happy to have him.

could that change yep it could. But it’s probably gonna revolve around the level of o line play he gets the last half the season.

Cause his timing witb the ball out of hand is back to pre injury form.

"Hoops wrote:

I could care less about stats or what a game winning drive constitutes. Despite these numbers backing up his level of play. I’ve seen all 4 starts and watched every snap even and he’s played a plus qb in Tennessee thru 4 games on tape. I don’t care what anyone cherry picks numbers wise etc. the tape says as much and Tennessee’s happy to have him.

could that change yep it could. But it’s probably gonna revolve around the level of o line play he gets the last half the season.

Cause his timing witb the ball out of hand is back to pre injury form.

People generally make their opinion and then manipulate the stats to back it up.

"Hoops wrote:

could that change yep it could. But it’s probably gonna revolve around the level of o line play he gets the last half the season.

Interestingly enough, he’s experiencing the highest sack percentage of his career this season.

"The Guy wrote:

Interestingly enough, he’s experiencing the highest sack percentage of his career this season.

Remember when some of us were arguing that sack% is not the data you want? You need to look at how much pressure is coming and from where.

"resnor wrote:

Remember when some of us were arguing that sack% is not the data you want? You need to look at how much pressure is coming and from where.

What do we know about that for this season?

"Hoops wrote:

I could care less about stats or what a game winning drive constitutes. Despite these numbers backing up his level of play. I’ve seen all 4 starts and watched every snap even and he’s played a plus qb in Tennessee thru 4 games on tape. I don’t care what anyone cherry picks numbers wise etc. the tape says as much and Tennessee’s happy to have him.

could that change yep it could. But it’s probably gonna revolve around the level of o line play he gets the last half the season.

Cause his timing witb the ball out of hand is back to pre injury form.

Just to add to this, he has been a fun QB to watch this season as well. That might have more to do with the lack of stress since the end result doesn't matter as much to me. But, to me, it feels like he is loose and he is throwing darts. He is actually having fun challenging the defenses he plays. I'm no QB guru, nor am I anywhere near as football smart as some of these coaches, but it feels like the coaches here got in his head, and he needed to get to a team that would be willing to let him play his ball. IF this is Tannehill ball this is what we should have wanted the entire time here.

"The Guy wrote:

What do we know about that for this season?

We dont and we would need to watch the games and plot the data as far as I know.

However, it's not a big or bad jump in logic to assume more pressure = worse decisions and ability to improvise. In other words...it is tougher to deal with two free rushers than just one. Every play with major pressure doesnt have to be a sack to impact the final result.

If hes being sacked at the same rate but performing better, either there is a reason for that or he just randomly improved. I'd lean towards there being a reason....but what is that reason?

Granted it could still just be a good stretch of games.

"The Guy wrote:

What do we know about that for this season?

The eye test says that he is taking some extra sacks trying to push the ball. This and his pocket awareness is the one thing I have had to agree with the anti Tannehill crowd on. What isn't happening is train wreck jail breaks that he often got here. Those type of pressures change the game, causing him to check down quickly and take the 3yd pass when we needed 15yds. Now he is getting more consistent line play(NOT GOOD LINE PLAY, just consistent), so he is willing to take the occasional sack to play a more competitive/aggressive game.

I also believe that his pocket awareness has looked better this year. Its still probably a bit below average, but he has been making up for it with quick release and good WR anticipation.

I completely understand people wanting him to do more to prove that this isn't a fluke, but here are some things that we can say right now:

He has given the Titans 1/4 a season of great QB play.
He took a Titans offense that was horrible, and has them playing like a top 10 unit right now.
His redzone efficency is off the charts right now, and even if he comes back down to earth its still crazy what he has done.
He is doing all of this surrounded by good not great pieces. Henry is a monster running back, but they have mostly unproven WRs, and average line play. Also Henry seems like he is benefiting as much from Tannehill as Tannehill is from him.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

We dont and we would need to watch the games and plot the data as far as I know.

However, it's not a big or bad jump in logic to assume more pressure = worse decisions and ability to improvise. In other words...it is tougher to deal with two free rushers than just one. Every play with major pressure doesnt have to be a sack to impact the final result.

If hes being sacked at the same rate but performing better, either there is a reason for that or he just randomly improved. I'd lean towards there being a reason....but what is that reason?

Granted it could still just be a good stretch of games.

Again it'll take a while to make any definitive meaning of what's happening.

In 2014 he had a four-game stretch in which his passer ratings were 125.6, 81.8, 114.8, and 104.9.

At the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017, he had a four-game stretch in which his passer ratings were 124, 89.9, 123.1, and 155.3.

Compare the above with his past four games in which his passer ratings were 120.1, 109.8, 82.3, and 133.9.

I (and a few others like resnor and danmarino) took an inordinate amount of shit for years, because we said Thill was behind a terrible oline but given no help from coaches to combat it.

- There was no commitment to the run game. (That is different than a successful run game.)
- He wasn't allowed to audible.

He had awful OCs and mostly awful olines and mostly awful WRs.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

We dont and we would need to watch the games and plot the data as far as I know.

However, it's not a big or bad jump in logic to assume more pressure = worse decisions and ability to improvise. In other words...it is tougher to deal with two free rushers than just one. Every play with major pressure doesnt have to be a sack to impact the final result.

If hes being sacked at the same rate but performing better, either there is a reason for that or he just randomly improved. I'd lean towards there being a reason....but what is that reason?

Granted it could still just be a good stretch of games.

In my opinion, the most definitive objective information we're going to get about his performance in Miami in that area is here:

Tannehill is one of 18 quarterbacks to qualify for our pressure stats in each of the last five seasons. The following table shows where those 18 quarterbacks rank amongst each other in average pressure rate, DVOA with and without pressure, and pressure drop since 2012. These are not averages weighted by attempts.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

What the table on that page shows is that Tannehill had the worst decrement in performance of the 18 quarterbacks measured between 2012 and 2016, as a function of experiencing pressure.

What the table also shows is that the Dolphins during that period didn't surrender a significantly greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks than the other teams measured.

So to believe that the Dolphins were surrendering a "type" of pressure that was especially detrimental to Tannehill, one would also have to believe that the Dolphins' offensive line was no worse than average at surrendering pressure in general, but significantly worse than average at surrendering that particular "type" of pressure.

It simply isn't logical to believe that an offensive line is average in one way that reflects its ability, and at the same time significantly below average in another way that reflects the same ability. A team that surrenders a particularly overwhelming "type" of pressure is also going to surrender a greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks in general.

The far more logical explanation for what we see in the table is that Tannehill just simply isn't good at managing pressure.

"The Guy wrote:

In my opinion, the most definitive objective information we're going to get about his performance in Miami in that area is here:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016

What the table on that page shows is that Tannehill had the worst decrement in performance of the 18 quarterbacks measured between 2012 and 2016, as a function of experiencing pressure.

What the table also shows is that the Dolphins during that period didn't surrender a significantly greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks than the other teams measured.

So to believe that the Dolphins were surrendering a "type" of pressure that was especially detrimental to Tannehill, one would also have to believe that the Dolphins' offensive line was no worse than average at surrendering pressure in general, but significantly worse than average at surrendering that particular "type" of pressure.

It simply isn't logical to believe that an offensive line is average in one way that reflects its ability, and at the same time significantly below average in another way that reflects the same ability. A team that surrenders a particularly overwhelming "type" of pressure is also going to surrender a greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks in general.

And what we've always said is that pressure is marked the same whether there was one rusher breaking through or 3. Thill had a lot of jailbreak pressure and he didn't have the outlets to combat the pressure like most others did.

You're not bringing a new argument here.

"Fin D wrote:

And what we've always said is that pressure is marked the same whether there was one rusher breaking through or 3. Thill had a lot of jailbreak pressure and he didn't have the outlets to combat the pressure like most others did.

You're not bringing a new argument here.

Again, however, a team that surrenders a greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure is going to surrender a greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks in general. The offensive line isn't going to be terrible in one way that reflects its ability ("jailbreak" pressure surrendered), and yet average in another way that reflects the same ability (pressure in general surrendered).

Again the far more logical explanation is that Tannehill simply wasn't good at managing pressure, which easily explains the decrement in his performance when under pressure and comports with what many people in this thread have opined about their observations of him. There isn't an internal inconsistency involved in that explanation.

"The Guy wrote:

Again, however, a team that surrenders a greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure is going to surrender a greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks in general. The offensive line isn't going to be terrible in one way that reflects its ability ("jailbreak" pressure surrendered), and yet average in another way that reflects the same ability (pressure in general surrendered).

Again the far more logical explanation is that Tannehill simply wasn't good at managing pressure, which easily explains the decrement in his performance when under pressure and comports with what many people in this thread have opined about their observations of him. There isn't an internal inconsistency involved in that explanation.

Your first sentence isn’t true. That is an assumption.

Again, people act like the only way to combat pressure is to scramble. It isn’t. Keeping defenses honest is the best way to combat pressure. You do that with a commitment to the running game and being able to audible. Thill never had a commitment from the running game and wasn’t allowed to audible until Gases first year.

I’m not saying he had great pocket presence, I’m saying he didn’t have the avenues available to him that were afforded to most of those other QBs he’s being compared against.

I mean, my god, Sherman has him yelling “go” for run and “go go” for a pass, for crying out loud.

"The Guy wrote:

Again, however, a team that surrenders a greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure is going to surrender a greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks in general. The offensive line isn't going to be terrible in one way that reflects its ability ("jailbreak" pressure surrendered), and yet average in another way that reflects the same ability (pressure in general surrendered).

Again the far more logical explanation is that Tannehill simply wasn't good at managing pressure, which easily explains the decrement in his performance when under pressure and comports with what many people in this thread have opined about their observations of him. There isn't an internal inconsistency involved in that explanation.

Again QB pressure is not graded looking at how many people were putting pressure. One guy putting pressure is different than 3 guys putting pressure. If you have one guy on your line who's a problem, you can plan for that, and be aware. When 3 guys are allowing pressure, you can't plan on it...you don't know play to play where the pressure could be coming from.

This isn't rocket science, and your precious stats don't distinguish this information.

"Fin D wrote:

Your first sentence isn’t true. That is an assumption.

"resnor wrote:

Again QB pressure is not graded looking at how many people were putting pressure. One guy putting pressure is different than 3 guys putting pressure. If you have one guy on your line who's a problem, you can plan for that, and be aware. When 3 guys are allowing pressure, you can't plan on it...you don't know play to play where the pressure could be coming from.

This isn't rocket science, and your precious stats don't distinguish this information.

You'll both have to help me understand how an offensive line that, according to you, was so bad that it surrendered a significantly greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure -- over the course of five consecutive NFL seasons -- was at the same time no worse than the average team in the league at surrendering pressure in general.

See if you can put together an explanation for that that's internally consistent.

"The Guy wrote:

You'll both have to help me understand how an offensive line that, according to you, was so bad that it surrendered a significantly greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure -- over the course of five consecutive NFL seasons -- was at the same time no worse than the average team in the league at surrendering pressure in general.

See if you can put together an explanation for that that's internally consistent.

It's been explained ad nauseum. At this point if you don't understand the point, there's no way to explain it. But I'll try with a simple example.

QB 1 takes pressure on one snap, from one defender, resulting in a sack. QB 2 takes simultaneous pressure from 3 defenders, resulting in a sack. Stats would tell us that both QBs faced the same percent of pressure on dropbacks, and had a similar sack%. But in reality, they did not have the same pressure, despite your stats not showing that.

"adamprez2003 wrote:

Now that we're no longer tanking for Tua and are fermenting for Fromme or limping for Love I wonder if Ross is losing his mind. What will absolutely kill Ross is if Tannehill leads the Titans to the AFC Championship. I think if Tannehill makes the AFC championship Grier will be fired

This is ridiculous. If Ross should fire Grier over anything it’s for not drafting Lamar Jackson.

"resnor wrote:

It's been explained ad nauseum. At this point if you don't understand the point, there's no way to explain it. But I'll try with a simple example.

QB 1 takes pressure on one snap, from one defender, resulting in a sack. QB 2 takes simultaneous pressure from 3 defenders, resulting in a sack. Stats would tell us that both QBs faced the same percent of pressure on dropbacks, and had a similar sack%. But in reality, they did not have the same pressure, despite your stats not showing that.

You're answering the question of whether "jailbreak" pressure on the quarterback simply exists. I don't dispute that it exists.

The question, however, is how an offensive line, over a five consecutive year span, can surrender that kind of "jailbreak" pressure at a significantly greater rate than the average team, while at the same time keeping its quarterback's pocket clean just as often as the average team.

How exactly does that happen?

"Fin D wrote:

I (and a few others like resnor and danmarino) took an inordinate amount of **** for years, because we said Thill was behind a terrible oline but given no help from coaches to combat it.

- There was no commitment to the run game. (That is different than a successful run game.)
- He wasn't allowed to audible.

He had awful OCs and mostly awful olines and mostly awful WRs.

Add me to that mix Tony. I was beating that same drum and blasted for it.

We had a GOOD quarterback in Tannehill and never gave him the support he needed to be successful

"The Guy wrote:

Again, however, a team that surrenders a greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure is going to surrender a greater percentage of pressured pass dropbacks in general. The offensive line isn't going to be terrible in one way that reflects its ability ("jailbreak" pressure surrendered), and yet average in another way that reflects the same ability (pressure in general surrendered).

Again the far more logical explanation is that Tannehill simply wasn't good at managing pressure, which easily explains the decrement in his performance when under pressure and comports with what many people in this thread have opined about their observations of him. There isn't an internal inconsistency involved in that explanation.

I disagree. The MOST logical explanation is our coaching staff wasn’t able to adjust and left Tannehill as the sacrificial lamb led to the slaughter.

Tennessee seems to be adjusting just fine.