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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's your ordering for passer rating differential -- see if you think that's a who's who of playoff teams at the top:

    NWE 1.88
    BAL 1.78
    SFO 1.68
    SEA 1.54
    MIN 1.23
    KAN 1.21
    NOR 0.93
    TEN 0.91
    GNB 0.88
    BUF 0.57
    HOU 0.32
    DAL 0.24
    CHI 0.07
    JAX -0.17
    CAR -0.18
    DET -0.19
    PIT -0.19
    PHI -0.22
    OAK -0.29
    LAR -0.31
    ATL -0.53
    IND -0.54
    DEN -0.58
    CLE -0.61
    LAC -0.63
    NYJ -0.76
    TAM -0.80
    WAS -1.13
    NYG -1.18
    CIN -1.49
    ARI -1.58
    MIA -1.87
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Excel.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah doesn't surprise me. Probably some hidden setting. Anyway, I'll remember that next time you post z-scores lol. :up:
     
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Years ago I used SPSS but that's when I could get it for the student rate. ;)
     
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  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Wow...of course there will be an oops here and there, but that is crazy.
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Learn to program in R. For statistical computing it's very good and free. A few things are frustrating like transforming between different data structures, but outside of that it's really good because tons of researchers add their own R packages to it which means there are statistical methods there that you won't find elsewhere.

    Of course it's a real programming language and not something like SPSS so if you don't know how to program it's a bit of an uphill battle at first. Anyway.. if you're interested download RStudio and slowly learn R. You can then scrape the data directly from the websites too.
    https://rstudio.com/products/rstudio/download/
     
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  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah the correlation with win percentage there is 0.90.
     
  8. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Mariota played like hot garbage that’s why tannehill took over.
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...ill-doesnt-rule-out-a-reversal-later-in-2019/
     
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  10. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

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  11. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

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  12. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I had the misfortune to be forced to use that when I was a student too. The more modern versions are probably better but the version I learned on was an absolute pig.
     
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  13. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    Did you guys see this? He darn near decleated him!

     
  14. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    And responded with the longest TD pass in his NFL career.
     
  15. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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  16. Destroyer

    Destroyer There for every play.

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    So angry with Philbin and Gase for ruining Tannehills career here. Offensive minds - what a joke.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 9, 2019
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill with another tremendous game.
     
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  18. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    21 completions for 397 yards lol
     
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  19. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And it was over 50 yds in the air.
     
  20. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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  21. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Wow.. I'm impressed. Unlike many previous games they actually relied on Tannehill today and he played like an elite QB. Not that statistical tests are necessary anymore (unless he ends the season with 3 bad games maybe), but the probability his 8 ratings in Tennessee "come from the same QB" as those in Miami are now down to 0.38%.

    Anyway, with a 140.4 rating today his 2019 rating jumps to 118.52 which is atm a whopping +2.48 z-score. That's not in record territory – for 10+ games started the record is by Steve Young in 1994 with a z-score of 3.57 – but 2.48 represents top 0.66th percentile.

    Very impressive.
     
  22. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Tannehill playing like the MVP of the league. Glad he’s getting a chance to play with an adequate HC and staff to prove all you freaks wrong.
     
  23. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Its so good to see...hopefully he can keep it going at least 3 more weeks. They're gonna need to sweep the Texans to make the playoffs.
     
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  24. Bumrush

    Bumrush Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not sure about MVP but he's clearly comeback player of the year.

    Too bad Flores didn't have the chance to mentor, educate and coach him.

    I don't know if it's a black eye on Miami yet but if he wins a playoff game or two it will be.
     
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  25. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ryan Tannehill is just the third player in NFL history to have a passer rating over 130 for four straight games, joining 2015 Russell Wilson and 1973 John Hadl.
     
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  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Not to poo-poo that accomplishment by any means, but the Russell Wilson company is great; the John Hadl company not so much.

    Then again the fact that the other great QBs of all time (aside from Wilson) haven't done it is noteworthy.
     
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  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure the explanation is that he finally has an adequate head coach and staff. The fact that he's playing so much better than Mariota did earlier this season, with the same head coach and staff, isn't consistent with that explanation.
     
  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    That only makes sense if you assume that every QB is equal and responds to the same stimuli or even needs the same stimuli.

    In other words, that doesn't make sense.
     
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  29. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah on this stat I have to point out what I always point out: have to adjust ratings to a common year to compare across eras. The average passer rating today is 91 while it was 78.4 in that record breaking year 1994 for Steve Young. A simple way to adjust ratings from 1978-onwards is to just divide by the league average rating that year and multiply by the league average rating in the common year (whichever you choose, as long as it's post-1978). If you adjust ratings you'll see Steve Young's last 7 games in 1994 would be 130+ ratings in 2019.

    Anyway, here's a nice reference to see how league average passer rating has changed over time:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

    Oh.. and the reason one shouldn't adjust in this manner for QB's up to 1977 is that the standard deviation in passer ratings changed. The variance was MUCH larger up to 1977 than from 1978-onwards due to rule changes. The advantage of z-scores of course is that they're all in "standard deviation units" so they automatically adjust no matter the year.

    Anyway.. I wouldn't hold up that stat you quoted as worth much because it's not based on adjusted ratings.
     
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  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's just unlikely that the same coaching staff can get so much better production out of one QB than another during the same season, when those QBs' historical performances aren't significantly different from each other. If Tannehill were doing better than Mariota, but far less better, I could get on board with that explanation.
     
  31. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I presume that qualifies for elite.

    I would have just said he is playing excellent football. Saying anything else is unnecessary.
     
  32. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    No you're simply wrong.

    Again, for your take to make sense, then Mariota and Thill need to be the exact same person. It is bonkers that you've gone straight to ignoring the fact these are human beings. They aren't robots. You don't insert X programming and then expect them to function the same.
     
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm also incorporating the human functioning of the coaching staff and implying the inherent limits they have on their abilities.

    This is a two-sided human equation here -- the quarterbacks, and the coaching staff.
     
  34. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    If it’s already been mentioned I apologize but I’m going to keep stirring this pot...

    7-1 as a starter
    21/27, 391 yards, 3TDs, 1 Int, 140.35 QBR

    31 passing plays (Tannehill running on 4 of them), 27 running plays. A BALANCED offensive strategy.

    Man I hate being right all of the time.
     
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  35. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    No you aren't.

    You are acting as if one robot is programming another. The coach is a human. Thill is human. Mariota is human. Your argument is literally no different than saying The coach made a pizza. If Thill likes it, so should Mariota.

    This stat stuff is going too damn far now.
     
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  36. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    This is the 3rd full game I've watched of RT this season and I have to say, he's showing a boat-load of confidence in that pocket. He did evade a few sacks today so maybe his pocket presence has slightly improved, but the main thing I see is that confidence level plus his ball placement is freaking phenomenal. Most of his passes today were perfectly on-target where the receiver was hit in stride.

    As cBrad said, maybe he has a bad game somewhere in this final stretch, but it's going to be pretty tough for him to end the season not in the top-3. And with 3 games left, it looks excellent for the Titans to take the division with 2 more wins. It's possible one more win gets them the wildcard but I don't think they'll need it.
     
  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I told EVERYONE...Tennessee is making the playoffs and Tannehill is going to be voted Comeback Player of the Year.

    I’m ecstatic for Tannehill
     
  38. inFINSible

    inFINSible Bad ministrator

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    I think the difference is simple. They're letting him be a gun slinger. He's got no Philbin trying to make him a pocket passer game manager, stressing not to turn the ball over and he's got no Gase calling bubble screens and 4 yd pass plays. I think they just let him play QB and sling it, and it's what he always needed. They let him play QB instead of trying to turn him into one.
     
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  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I am as well- thrilled that he turned things around in a new city. And hey, it couldn't happen at a better time when all of us basically have nothing to root for until the draft. For the next 8 weeks, I'm a die-hard Tennessee fan!
     
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  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What I'm saying is that the pizza the Titans' current coaches can make probably can't vary to the degree that it explains how much more Tannehill eats the pizza than Mariota, when historically they've eaten about the same amount of pizza across a number of coaches.

    For coaching to fully account for the available data, the 2019 Titans' coaches would have to be doing the equivalent of what Bill Walsh did in the early 1980s -- something so innovative and unique that it explains the extremity of the difference in Tannehill's performance, in comparison to his own historically and to Mariota's earlier this year.

    What are the odds of that? High or low? All I'm saying is that they're low.
     

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