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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Don't look now...but Tannehill is 4 passer rating points away from the all-time NFL record. He's currently in 4th...ALL TIME.

    Also 1% away for the completion % record.

    I don't expect him to finish the season with those records...but wouldn't that be something? 3 games to go, 2 against the Texans (and the Texans pass defense is trash). Pulling for him.

    Houston:
    28th in opponent passer rating
    31st in opponent passing TD%
    27th in opponent passing YPG
    32nd in opponent 3rd down conversion %
    And so on...
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2019
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Once again.. do it with z-scores and it's 2.48 while the record is 3.57 for 10+ game season. WAY away from any records once you properly compare across eras. Let's not act like what Tannehill is doing is historically great. It's nowhere near. It's great for 2019, nothing else.
     
  3. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    If he gets 5 more passer rating points by season's end...he has the record (over Aaron Rodgers), regardless. Can't z-score that away.
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    As long as you're using raw passer rating to suggest Tannehill is doing something historically great (and that's how your post as well as many others like it reads), that's a deliberate use of misleading statistics and is precisely what "lies, damn lies and statistics" refers to.

    Please.. don't go there (up to you though).
     
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  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I'm saying no such thing...I'm just saying if he got that record, then he got that record...and that's damn impressive for a cast-off QB that was traded for a low round draft pick.

    Edit: He already has the record for consecutive completions (part of it earned against his current team lol). Not all records are created equal of course...but passer rating is a fairly regarded stat...and to own the all-time record of that for a season is impressive...even if it doesn't have the robustness (is that a word?) of other passer ratings. STILL a record.
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No that doesn't fly. Why not just directly say it's impressive Tannehill has a career passer rating higher than Marino's? That as technically true as what you said. Point is.. using unadjusted passer rating makes it impossible to tell what is "impressive" and what's not. Have to take the extra step and properly compare using z-scores.
     
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  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Agree to disagree.
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Don Shula holds the record for most wins, and that is accepted without z scoring for modern times versus coaching with climate change and computer viruses and how GMOs affect athletic performance during election years.

    Statisticians are the only ones that concern themselves with such parsed down information, and THAT is what the phrase, “lies, damn lies and statistics” refers too.
     
  9. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Being the best in the nfl at something in a given year is impressive to me. Being the best, after basically being fired is even more so. I think your definition of impressive may just be different. Maybe, I'm easily impressed.
     
  10. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    We can agree to disagree on whether it's "impressive" or not since that is subjective I guess, but we're not agreeing to disagree on whether it's a misleading stat or whether it's proper statistical analysis for comparing across eras.
     
  11. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Agree to disagree.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Win percentage doesn't need to be adjusted for era because the distribution of win% per season has generally remained constant. That's not true for passer rating or many other passing stats.

    And all of science concerns itself with proper use of stats. There's no reason not to bring extra rigor into it for sports, especially since in sport after sport the utility of statistical analysis is being demonstrated.
     
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  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Are you really trying to say, when the NFL or ESPN produces all time lists, they do what you’re talking about? Because they do not.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    lol.. love the response, but there IS a correct and incorrect approach to interpreting the results of statistical analysis. That's not up for debate (or opinion). Anyway.. the z-score approach is what you'd see done in science whether you like it or not.
     
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  15. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    The basic test is, assuming he can continue at this pace for the rest of 2019, is to follow it up with another 100+ passer rating year in 2020. There have been many QBs who have had a 1 year anomaly where their rating is much better (or worse) than their career average and followed it up with a year back close to their average.

    The number of QBs who continued at a high level after a one year jump in rating is a very short list. Rich Gannon, Jim Plunkett, plus arguably Alex Smith and Drew Brees. You run out of fingers on one hand of an incompetent bomb maker before you run out of QBs who successfully made a mid career jump to a higher level of QB play.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Of course not. Nowhere was that suggested or implied. I'm talking about how statistical analysis has transformed MLB and NBA for one, and very slowly the NFL seems to be exploring greater use of stats with their AWS contract.

    As far as ESPN, that's FAR from any trustworthy source of statistical analysis when their propriety QBR is proprietary precisely because they don't want people to see all the subjective assumptions they built into it.
     
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  17. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And flat number records don't care about science...sorry.
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Still a misleading use of stats.. sorry.
     
  19. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    IDC...not sorry.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 10, 2019
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  20. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I know you don't, but I do.. also not sorry.

    I mean, I really do care about the proper use of stats, and while I might not point this out for every instance I see on this board I'm going to still point it out often enough so that it doesn't go unchallenged.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 10, 2019
  21. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    Face it. Stats suck for analyzing QBs. Statisticians and Mathematicians are horrible at football. Butchers, plumbers and taxi cab drivers are much better sources for football analysis than statisticians. It's simply the wrong sport for the mathy ones. Stick to baseball. Moneyball works there. Football? Just look at Cleveland three years into the experiment. Failure or Success? Another failure. Just admit stats don't work for individuals in football, admit you were wrong about Tannehill, beg for his forgiveness and say ten Jets Sucks. Then instead of looking at numbers actually watch the games. Trust me, much more enjoyable and much more reliable
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 10, 2019
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  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Face it. You were totally wrong about Russell Wilson losing his "fast twitch muscles" and no longer performing at an elite level, while statistics predicted (correctly) that you wrong by simply ignoring anything except prior performance. Statistics also correctly predicted that Matt Ryan's amazing year in 2016 was an anomaly, and you can go back and see me making that prediction correctly mid-season.

    Yes, what Tannehill is doing was not predicted by his prior statistical performance. It's an exception to the rule. Exceptions happen. But most of the time predictions based on past performance will work out better than someone predicting an exception will occur. So no it's not the case that statistics is useless for prediction. Quite the contrary: it tells you what tends to occur!

    And as far as the predictive power of everyone else, who here predicted that Tennessee with its coach and surrounding cast was precisely the situation Tannehill needed to perform at an elite level? I remember NO ONE making that prediction. Only people "hoping".

    So don't act like you or anyone else is good at analyzing QB's or football to the point you can accurately make such predictions. Anyone claiming they can better show their record. We were we told for how many years that Tannehill will FINALLY show he would play elite, only to fail? Just last year we had a ton of posters claiming Tannehill finally had the right coach (Gase) who believed in him and who said he "had his team". And yes.. many people well into last season thought Gase was a great coach. Same people today saying otherwise.

    Either way, you're right of course about analytics in football not being up to par at the moment. But it will be. Give it time, 30 years maybe? The same kind of doubts and resistance you see now to analytics in football you saw when people started to apply stats to baseball. No different. But the general historical pattern is clear: statistical analysis slowly develops to the point where it becomes indispensable to that field. That's certainly true outside sports and the pattern is slowly developing in sports too.

    Oh.. and using math notation yes I'll say (JETS SUCK!!!)^10
     
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  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Umm....do the history books show adjusted passer rating for their records, or just plain old passer rating? I'm pretty sure it's the latter and if RT plays great for three more games, then you're going to hear about it from folks here for an eternity.
     
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  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    There can be more than one historically great season.....
     
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  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. You "guess" impressive is subjective..... Why do I get the impression you were sad when you typed that?
     
  26. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I hope it is, if SOME people have been allowed to troll this site for years with garbage then why the hell shouldn't HE be allowed to post?

    He did nothing worse, then what I see everyday. And he didn’t do habitually.
     
  27. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Ha! No chance it would’ve gotten there. People can say what they want but it’s all on film. Mike Wallace was open early and often and the ball just never got there.

    To Ryan’s credit he recognized it (unlike half this board) and publicly stated he was working on it with coaches in the offseason.

    Good on him for not being as naive as others and improving on the line drive like deep release, into the correct trajectory a Qb should throw to lead a WR in that spot.
     
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  28. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Too bad Wallace never grew human sized arms. Tannehill turned himself into an elite deep ball passer and Wallace just faded away.
     
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  29. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I'm easily impressed. It makes the watching football more fun then just whining about everything.
     
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  30. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Yep, good for him and not good for a Wallace.

    Both your post and mine are factual.

    Too many people adopt the mentality that 2 things can’t be true, it’s the whack triggered-like political stance they take.

    Truth is always in the middle
     
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  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    For anyone interested in the coaches film of Tannehill vs the Raiders.
    (no credit to me, I didn't create it)

     
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  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking about it- is it out of the realm of possibility that we offer a late 1st rounder to Tennessee for Tannehill?

    I know it sounds ridiculous at first, but it would actually be a fairly smart move if RT continues this trajectory into the playoffs. That would let us focus on protection early in the draft and gives us the best chance of a fast turnaround.
     
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  33. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Game winner... Right. In. His. Hands.

    [​IMG]


    Where is Wallace these days? What QB is he blaming for his lack of performance now? He seems to have fell off the map after leaving Tannehill.
     
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  35. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    HA!

    Cmon man, you know myself and everyone remembers that play.

    Also, go back and watch that entire game, it proves my point to a tee.
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Wallace was so overrated.

    Someone said it earlier...speed threat is not a deep threat.
     
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  37. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    As much as I loved having Tannehill here, and how much I do think the Dolphins are going to desperately miss him, I wouldn't be for this move. both sides needed to move on at this point. Tannehill actually seems like he is enjoying playing again, and I couldn't be happier for him.

    As for us, I just hope we learned some lessons from the whole ordeal. Aaron Rodgers in his prime might have made us look a little more competitive over the last couple of years, but I strongly doubt he could have brought us home a championship.

    Blowing up the roster and trying to build up with a better culture, and a better vision for the team is the best option for us. I just hope when we have a finished product, we are able to get someone with the character and toughness of Tannehill to lead our team.
     
  38. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Yeah, I remember Tannehill scrambling around to buy time and throwing the 60 yard bomb in the pic that hit Wallace in the hands that he dropped.

    Looked him up. Failure in Minny, Baltimore, and Philly... Teddy B, Flacco, and Wentz couldn't deliver the goods for him. Poor Mike. Jugs machines, eh, Omar?

    At least you'll always have his fathead on the wall.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2019
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  39. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Yeah, his best chance here was probably with Dan Campbell. As good as Tannehill has played these last 6 or 7 games, that wouldn't have been the case here this year with the hot garbage we have on the OL and no run support.

    He's where he needs to be. Just hope Miami learns from it's mistakes and doesn't draft another QB without putting him into the same sort of situation that Tannehill is in currently, or Wilson was his first few years. It's a wonder Tannehill didn't get David Carr'ed.
     
  40. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    A great sentiment.

    I hope it somehow finds its way to Ryan.
     
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