Ryan Tannehill

@brgridiron
Titans are playing their best football of the year. 5-1 record, Tannehill with 15 total TDs in last 6 games

@JaysonBraddock
Ryan Tannehill's last 6 games
5 wins 1 loss
72% comp
243 pass yds per gm
12 passing TDs
3 INTs
3 rushing TDs

@jwyattsports
@ryantannehill1 has passed for 1,458 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions with a passer rating of 117.1 in six games since taking over the starting quarterback job in Week 7. @Titans

@Michael_Nania
Ryan Tannehill goes to 5-1 as a starter with a 100+ passer rating in five of those games and a 130+ rating in each of the last three. I wonder what he would accomplish if he got to play under the tutelage of QB guru Adam Gase!

@JWyatt
*RT passer rating in his first 5 starts is 114.9. It's the best in #Oilers/@Titans franchise history for a QB's first 5 starts with the franchise. The previous record holder was @Hasselbeck, who joined the #Titans in 2011 & produced a 95.9 rating in his 1st 5 starts.

The #Titans have averaged 445.3 yards from scrimmage per game (1,336 yards / 3 games) since Week 9 -- best in NFL; League avg: 358.9.

Per JWyatt @MySportsUpdate
#Titans blow it open. Ryan Tannehill finds Kalif Raymond for a 40-yard TD. With a win, Tennessee will improve to 7-5.

@2ndandVictory
AND RYAN TANNEHILL PUTS THE FUCKING DAGGER INTO THEIR HEARTS.

@ckparrot
Ryan Tannehill has completed 27 of 41 passes for 458 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT when NOT working from the shotgun. That's a 101.5 passer rating.

@MikeMiracles
The Tannessee TitanHills have put up at least 31 points in 3 straight games. This is only the second time this team has managed that since they arrived in Nashville in 1997.

@LateRoundQB
Since Ryan Tannehill became starter, here's a list of quarterbacks (minimum four games played) who have averaged more fantasy points per game:
1. Lamar Jackson

@JeffDarlington
Ryan Tannehill told me he doesn’t feel any different — same QB he’s always been — but his arm during warmups looked as precise as I can remember. Maybe it’s the confidence of winning or more of a “f*** it” mentality... but he’s slinging it. Perfectly placed passes on every route.

@JeffDarlington
Probably the stat that will baffle Dolphins fans the most when it comes to Tannehill’s resurgence: The Titans were 19th in red zone efficiency when Ryan took over. In just five starts, he has moved them all the way to... first in the NFL.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/titans-quarterback-ryan-tannehill-playing-his-way-into-a-franchise-tag-at-tennessee/

Tannehill has been a top-five quarterback in virtually every key metric since replacing former No. 2 overall pick Marcus Mariota under center, leading Tennessee to a 4-1 record and putting them in position to possibly win the AFC South. Since Tannehill took over, the Titans are averaging 50 more passing yards per game and 44 more rushing yards, with the quarterback pushing the ball deep downfield, getting multiple receivers involved and making it more difficult to load the box against star running back Derrick Henry.

"KeyFin wrote:

NE prefers precise route runners that can juke you out of your shoes...but probably lose in a foot race. That's why folks like 7-11, Edelman, Welker, etc. have thrived in that offense even though they didn't last on other teams. That definitely doesn't make them "garbage" though...it simply means Brady needs receivers to get open quickly. Chunk yards have never been a priority in NE and it's obviously served them well.

But you are right- without Gronk (their only real chunk-yard threat), it is easier to scheme against them and slow that offense down. This season they're playing Brady like teams played Tannehill a few years back....they give him the short stuff and dare him to beat you deep.

What Brady has shown on the contrary is the ability to play very well with receivers with various traits, as he adjusts his game to fit their abilities. Note for example that the highest season passer rating of his career was in 2007, when he had the fleet-footed Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth, paired with Wes Welker, and their offensive game featured a great deal of downfield passing. Note the following article for example.

https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2019/07/14/this-statistic-disproves-that-tom-brady-is-only-a-check-down-passer/

What’s more likely happening in my opinion is that he is simply getting old in NFL terms, and the performance of quarterbacks in the NFL tends to decline suddenly rather than gradually. Note the following article for example.

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/08/how-quarterbacks-age.html?m=1

"The Guy wrote:

What Brady has shown on the contrary is the ability to play very well with receivers with various traits, as he adjusts his game to fit their abilities. Note for example that the highest season passer rating of his career was in 2007, when he had the fleet-footed Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth, paired with Wes Welker, and their offensive game featured a great deal of downfield passing. Note the following article for example.

https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2019/07/14/this-statistic-disproves-that-tom-brady-is-only-a-check-down-passer/

What’s more likely happening in my opinion is that he is simply getting old in NFL terms, and the performance of quarterbacks in the NFL tends to decline suddenly rather than gradually. Note the following article for example.

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2011/08/how-quarterbacks-age.html?m=1

Honestly if you watched Brady last year it was pretty obvious the tank was close to empty.

Brady can "adjust" to throw the ball to the greatest receiver of all time? Huh. So could Culpepper.

"cbrad wrote:

btw.. since people have been talking about predicting games, it doesn't matter what stat you use you can't predict them very well. The best you can do is predict the outcome to 59-60% accuracy using either win% or point differential, and the best predictive power is seen using either win% or point differential based on the last 10-11 games, not fewer and not more:

I haven't done this using passer rating (I actually can't since the game-by-game database I have doesn't have that) but given that only about 40% of the variance in win% is explained by offensive passer rating and about 63.2% of variance in win% is explained by passer rating differential, those won't do as well as win% or point differential.

Point is.. no matter what stat you use, the best you can do is predict about 6 out of 10 games (maybe some combination of stats might get it slightly above but I bet not by that much) so it's mostly unpredictable. Note from that graph something interesting though: to predict win% based on performance over multiple seasons, point differential is better than win%.

Best models can predict with ~75% accuracy (thats based on performance within a single season, and based on much more than just a single stat).

"cuchulainn wrote:

@brgridiron
Titans are playing their best football of the year. 5-1 record, Tannehill with 15 total TDs in last 6 games

@JaysonBraddock
Ryan Tannehill's last 6 games
5 wins 1 loss
72% comp
243 pass yds per gm
12 passing TDs
3 INTs
3 rushing TDs

@jwyattsports
@ryantannehill1 has passed for 1,458 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions with a passer rating of 117.1 in six games since taking over the starting quarterback job in Week 7. @Titans

@Michael_Nania
Ryan Tannehill goes to 5-1 as a starter with a 100+ passer rating in five of those games and a 130+ rating in each of the last three. I wonder what he would accomplish if he got to play under the tutelage of QB guru Adam Gase!

@JWyatt
*RT passer rating in his first 5 starts is 114.9. It's the best in #Oilers/@Titans franchise history for a QB's first 5 starts with the franchise. The previous record holder was @Hasselbeck, who joined the #Titans in 2011 & produced a 95.9 rating in his 1st 5 starts.

The #Titans have averaged 445.3 yards from scrimmage per game (1,336 yards / 3 games) since Week 9 -- best in NFL; League avg: 358.9.

Per JWyatt @MySportsUpdate
#Titans blow it open. Ryan Tannehill finds Kalif Raymond for a 40-yard TD. With a win, Tennessee will improve to 7-5.

@2ndandVictory
AND RYAN TANNEHILL PUTS THE ****ING DAGGER INTO THEIR HEARTS.

@ckparrot
Ryan Tannehill has completed 27 of 41 passes for 458 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT when NOT working from the shotgun. That's a 101.5 passer rating.

@MikeMiracles
The Tannessee TitanHills have put up at least 31 points in 3 straight games. This is only the second time this team has managed that since they arrived in Nashville in 1997.

@LateRoundQB
Since Ryan Tannehill became starter, here's a list of quarterbacks (minimum four games played) who have averaged more fantasy points per game:
1. Lamar Jackson

@JeffDarlington
Ryan Tannehill told me he doesn’t feel any different — same QB he’s always been — but his arm during warmups looked as precise as I can remember. Maybe it’s the confidence of winning or more of a “f*** it” mentality... but he’s slinging it. Perfectly placed passes on every route.

@JeffDarlington
Probably the stat that will baffle Dolphins fans the most when it comes to Tannehill’s resurgence: The Titans were 19th in red zone efficiency when Ryan took over. In just five starts, he has moved them all the way to... first in the NFL.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/titans-quarterback-ryan-tannehill-playing-his-way-into-a-franchise-tag-at-tennessee/

Tannehill has been a top-five quarterback in virtually every key metric since replacing former No. 2 overall pick Marcus Mariota under center, leading Tennessee to a 4-1 record and putting them in position to possibly win the AFC South. Since Tannehill took over, the Titans are averaging 50 more passing yards per game and 44 more rushing yards, with the quarterback pushing the ball deep downfield, getting multiple receivers involved and making it more difficult to load the box against star running back Derrick Henry.

Good for him. I want him to succeed. Just didn’t happen here.

It’s like when you’re GF doesn’t cook, clean, or give head when you’re together. Then after your break up, what do you think she’s doing with the new dude? Cooking, cleaning, and giving head. Sooner or later, she’s going to stop with the new dude as well.

"Stringer Bell wrote:

Best models can predict with ~75% accuracy (thats based on performance within a single season, and based on much more than just a single stat).

Interesting.. you have a link? I'd like to see their general approach.

btw.. my first thought was this: 75% seems way too high because I would think you could beat Vegas if you could do that. So IF what you're saying is true my initial guess is that they're not trying to predict every game. But I'll wait to see which models you're referring to.

"cbrad wrote:

Interesting.. you have a link? I'd like to see their general approach.

I was thinking the same thing- if it averages .75 accuracy over the course of a season (or even the close of a season) then it's worth betting on. I mean, put a grand on each game (16k) and you win 75% of those, that's 8k total profit A WEEK!

Tannehill sits at a 113.9 passer rating on the year, which is 2nd overall only to Cousins. He passed Wilson and Jackson this past weekend. However, he's also the 19th most sacked QB this season (24) despite playing only 6 games...average that out for the year and he's still the most sacked QB in football (currently it's Murray with 41 sacks/12 games). Not that it matters with the numbers he's putting up....just added that to show his pocket presence and protection hasn't necessarily increased this season.

For ESPN's Total QBR, Tannehill is 16th overall...one slot ahead of Brady. Fitzpatrick is a surprising 8th in Total QBR, by the way. For last week, Fitzpatrick was 3rd in the league while Tannehill was 22nd...QBR just doesn't like the guy I guess.

Whether this is a fluke or a genuine resurgence, I'm genuinely happy to see him move on and flourish for however long it lasts. I'm looking forward to him playing his first playoff game this year as well...it's been great having another team to root for this season that's not named the Dolphins!

"KeyFin wrote:

I was thinking the same thing- if it averages .75 accuracy over the course of a season (or even the close of a season) then it's worth betting on. I mean, put a grand on each game (16k) and you win 75% of those, that's 8k total profit A WEEK!

Have to take into account moneylines so you would win a lot less. But regardless.. IF it's really true you can win 75% of the games, then I'm going to look at archived odds and see if that would have meant you could beat Vegas. Intuitively I doubt this.

"KeyFin wrote:

Tannehill sits at a 113.9 passer rating on the year, which is 2nd overall only to Cousins. He passed Wilson and Jackson this past weekend. However, he's also the 19th most sacked QB this season (24) despite playing only 6 games...average that out for the year and he's still the most sacked QB in football. Not that it matters with the numbers he's putting up....just added that to show his pocket presence and protection hasn't necessarily increased this season.

For ESPN's Total QBR, Tannehill is 16th overall...one slot ahead of Brady. Fitzpatrick is a surprising 8th in Total QBR, by the way. For last week, Fitzpatrick was 3rd in the league while Tannehill was 22nd...QBR just doesn't like the guy I guess.

Whether this is a fluke or a genuine resurgence, I'm genuinely happy to see him move on and flourish for however long it lasts. I'm looking forward to him playing his first playoff game this year as well...it's been great having another team to root for this season that's not named the Dolphins!

One of the (many) reasons ESPN’s QBR is garbage is the hate it has given to Tannehill over his career. According to it Tannehill belongs in the Blaine Gabbert/Nathan Peterman category of QBs which is plainly false. Tannehill has been* an average QB who takes too many sacks. His traditional NFL passer rating reflects this.
According to QBR a team QBed by Tannehill should consistently be in the 4-12 range unless they have an exceptional defense. According to NFL passer rating a team QBed by Tannehill should be in the 8-8 range.

* i.e. prior to 2019

"Pauly wrote:

One of the (many) reasons ESPN’s QBR is garbage is the hate it has given to Tannehill over his career. According to it Tannehill belongs in the Blaine Gabbert/Nathan Peterman category of QBs which is plainly false. Tannehill has been* an average QB who takes too many sacks. His traditional NFL passer rating reflects this.
According to QBR a team QBed by Tannehill should consistently be in the 4-12 range unless they have an exceptional defense. According to NFL passer rating a team QBed by Tannehill should be in the 8-8 range.

* i.e. prior to 2019

Well, QBR obviously takes sacks into account and ignores offensive line performance...that would explain a lot of the Tanne-hate from ESPN. If he's supposed to be a 4-win QB though and he's won 4 out of 5 total, I think it's pretty safe to say that the rating system itself sucks.

And not tot take anything away from our boy Fitzpatrick, but he's not playing like a top-8 QB for the season. He's carried this team and balled out as much as possible under the circumstances, but the reality is that he's running for his life and having a blast doing it. I'd call him a player of the year in my book....but I wouldn't call him a top-8 QB. =)

"Stringer Bell wrote:

Best models can predict with ~75% accuracy (thats based on performance within a single season, and based on much more than just a single stat).

Having built predictive models and used predictive models this is bunkum.

1) passer rating is not a stat, it’s a blend of passing attempts, completions, TDs and interceptions. So passer rating is not a “single stat”, it is 5 stats that have been combined into a single rating.
2) as cbrad and keyfin say, show us your workings.
3) predictive models have an optimum number of variables. With enough variables and assumptions you can hind-cast anything with astonishing accuracy. Many variables however are interactive or are measuring the same things just in different ways, which is why adding more variables to a predictive model often has the effect of making it less accurate. The most robust predictive models tend to be those with the fewest moving parts.

Probably a big part of Tanne's resurgence or whatever is that he is no longer being coached by that little bugeyed douche of a HC. Look at what that little scammer is doing with Darnold.

"resnor wrote:

Brady can "adjust" to throw the ball to the greatest receiver of all time? Huh. So could Culpepper.

Apparently you didn’t read the article, which goes well beyond Randy Moss.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

Honestly if you watched Brady last year it was pretty obvious the tank was close to empty.

That isn’t supported by any statistic.

"The Guy wrote:

Apparently you didn’t read the article, which goes well beyond Randy Moss.

I don't need to read the article to comment on something you wrote.

"resnor wrote:

I don't need to read the article to comment on something you wrote.

What I wrote regarding Randy Moss said “note for example,” meaning that there’s more to the story than just Randy Moss.

"cbrad wrote:

Interesting.. you have a link? I'd like to see their general approach.

btw.. my first thought was this: 75% seems way too high because I would think you could beat Vegas if you could do that. So IF what you're saying is true my initial guess is that they're not trying to predict every game. But I'll wait to see which models you're referring to.

"KeyFin wrote:

I was thinking the same thing- if it averages .75 accuracy over the course of a season (or even the close of a season) then it's worth betting on. I mean, put a grand on each game (16k) and you win 75% of those, that's 8k total profit A WEEK!

"Pauly wrote:

Having built predictive models and used predictive models this is bunkum.

1) passer rating is not a stat, it’s a blend of passing attempts, completions, TDs and interceptions. So passer rating is not a “single stat”, it is 5 stats that have been combined into a single rating.
2) as cbrad and keyfin say, show us your workings.

Just to be clear - 75% referred to predicting the winner of the game, not who would win against the spread. Nobody is coming close to 75% accuracy against the point spread. The point spread predicts the winner of a game ~70% of the time. So if someone can beat Vegas 53% of the time (which is realistic), then you're close to the 75%.

Here is an example of a model getting > 70%:
http://cs229.stanford.edu/proj2016/report/WadsworthVera-PredictingPointSpreadinNFLGames-report.pdf

Thats just what I found by a quick google search. Please don't roast me if theres something wrong there. Back in the day I know Brian Burke had a pretty solid model that was based on a logit regression. I can find more, or even show an example, if you all really are interested. From my experience, the key to an effective model is effectively incorporating opponent adjustments. I'm curious how people have started to incorporate the player tracking data thats becoming available.

This shouldn't be that controversial. If passer rating can predict at 60%, you should be able to achieve higher results by removing the variance that exists within that stat (volatility of TD or INT %, for example).

3) predictive models have an optimum number of variables. With enough variables and assumptions you can hind-cast anything with astonishing accuracy. Many variables however are interactive or are measuring the same things just in different ways, which is why adding more variables to a predictive model often has the effect of making it less accurate. The most robust predictive models tend to be those with the fewest moving parts.

Yes, I agree - obviously overfitting is a concern, especially when many variables in football are corollary. You just have to be careful and understand the interplay.

That should not dissuade anyone from leveraging all the available data, especially now that player movement tracking data is becoming available.

"The Guy wrote:

What I wrote regarding Randy Moss said “note for example,” meaning that there’s more to the story than just Randy Moss.

Actually, that's you saying that Moss is an example of Brady's adjusting his game. I'm still not clear on how one has to adjust their game when throwing to the greatest receiver of all time.

"Stringer Bell wrote:

Here is an example of a model getting > 70%:
http://cs229.stanford.edu/proj2016/report/WadsworthVera-PredictingPointSpreadinNFLGames-report.pdf

Thats just what I found by a quick google search. Please don't roast me if theres something wrong there.

Won't roast you, but the key part of their article/report is under the section "Features". There they say the INPUTS (what they call "features" because they're using machine learning and the individual components of a neural network are "features") to their models are:

1. Each team's win streak
2. Each team's NFL ranking from the previous season
3. Each team's ESPN preseason "power ranking"
4. The predicted Vegas spread

They're using the Vegas spread to predict outcomes! And they explicitly say that the Vegas spread was the most impactful input variable (see the graph in that section). So.. no duh they can get 70-75%.

Also, two other things from a scientific point of view:

1. The reason Logistic Regression proved useful is precisely because the math behind transforming rankings to measures uses logistic regression. I've said many times before that ranks aren't measures because the difference between ranks 1 and 2 isn't a priori the same as the difference between rank N and N+1, while any measuring instrument such as a ruler doesn't have this flaw. Logistic regression is the basis behind math like Rasch analysis that fixes that problem.

2. Most of their methods have TONS of parameters. These are machine learning methods, and the one that worked the best called Ada Boosting is machine learning ON machine learning lol. So there is a serious danger to overfitting with these models. In other words, just because one model worked on one test set does not in any way suggest it will work on another test set.

So.. a purely analytical approach that uses commonly available stats with NO Vegas spreads (that's a huge advantage) or rankings by experts who are pretty good if it's just one game they have to predict? Not sure how good you can do there. Probably better than 60% but I'll start to be impressed if they can do 65%+ on any test set.

"resnor wrote:

Actually, that's you saying that Moss is an example of Brady's adjusting his game. I'm still not clear on how one has to adjust their game when throwing to the greatest receiver of all time.

The point I responded to was this one:

NE prefers precise route runners that can juke you out of your shoes...but probably lose in a foot race. That's why folks like 7-11, Edelman, Welker, etc. have thrived in that offense even though they didn't last on other teams. That definitely doesn't make them "garbage" though...it simply means Brady needs receivers to get open quickly. Chunk yards have never been a priority in NE and it's obviously served them well.

But you are right- without Gronk (their only real chunk-yard threat), it is easier to scheme against them and slow that offense down. This season they're playing Brady like teams played Tannehill a few years back....they give him the short stuff and dare him to beat you deep.

So the point is that Brady can win with receivers with various traits, including deep speed a la Moss and Stallworth, because he has not only the ability to be accurate in the short area, but also to hit the longball.

From the article I linked:

Using @PFF QB charting and actual ball location on each pass, most accurate passers on 10+ yard passes over the last three years (including playoffs):

1. Tom Brady 55.8%
2. Andrew Luck 53.8
3. Drew Brees 53.6
4. Patrick Mahomes 51.5
5. Matt Ryan 50.3

Then there’s the big whammy of the stats — Brady not only has the highest PFF grade of all quarterbacks throwing passes of 10-plus air yards over the past three seasons, he also has the highest passer rating (120.2) in the NFL in that same category, over that same time span.

So again the point is that Brady has adjusted his game to fit the characteristics of his receivers. When Randy Moss was on his team, he wasn't stuck functioning like Chad Pennington, leaving Moss underutilized. He passed the ball in such a way that Moss's unique skill set was utilized.

"BevoPhin wrote:

Good for him. I want him to succeed. Just didn’t happen here.

It’s like when you’re GF doesn’t cook, clean, or give head when you’re together. Then after your break up, what do you think she’s doing with the new dude? Cooking, cleaning, and giving head. Sooner or later, she’s going to stop with the new dude as well.

Huh. Then maybe you should ask yourself why you couldn't be the man to get that from her to start with...

"Sceeto wrote:

Probably a big part of Tanne's resurgence or whatever is that he is no longer being coached by that little bugeyed douche of a HC. Look at what that little scammer is doing with Darnold.

He was mismanaged from the start by Philbin. With Gase, he was only healthy for less than a dozen games in three seasons. 2016 started off well until his knee got caved in. Last year, he was still recovering from the knee when he almost had his shoulder ripped off against the Bengals. He's healthy and having fun.

And considering what TN is doing, Ross should have hired Dan Campbell or one of the Shannahan's. The offenses are very similar. Run heavy and lots of PA. They don't ask him to pass 35+ times a game and aren't demanding that he stay in the pocket, nor are they screen pass heavy, or calling lots of slow developing plays. When they do, they roll him out like on the 40 yard bomb TD yesterday.

He's finally in a system that fits him.

"cuchulainn wrote:

He was mismanaged from the start by Philbin. With Gase, he was only healthy for less than a dozen games in three seasons. 2016 started off well until his knee got caved in. Last year, he was still recovering from the knee when he almost had his shoulder ripped off against the Bengals. He's healthy and having fun.

And considering what TN is doing, Ross should have hired Dan Campbell or one of the Shannahan's. The offenses are very similar. Run heavy and lots of PA. They don't ask him to pass 35+ times a game and aren't demanding that he stay in the pocket, nor are they screen pass heavy, or calling lots of slow developing plays. When they do, they roll him out like on the 40 yard bomb TD yesterday.

He's finally in a system that fits him.

If it’s true that he’s finally in a system that fits him, then it’ll be interesting to see how he performs once the league accrues a significant amount of film of him playing in that system.

This is again why it’ll be important to follow his performance for the next two to three years, to determine whether he’s experiencing an Andy Dalton 2015 season this year. Whatever put Andy Dalton at an elite level in 2015 hasn’t done that again in any other season of his career.