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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That explanation is certainly logically sound, but it doesn’t fit with the fact that there is a relatively weak correlation between the Dolphins’ commitment to the run game (which varied from game to game) and his performance in Miami.

    In other words, when the Dolphins demonstrated a commitment to the run game, Tannehill’s performance didn’t get any better. It’s therefore difficult to put significant stock in that explanation.
     
  2. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    His #1 target has been a rookie. He's hit 2nd/3rd string backs, TEs WRs and even an OL for big throws / TDs.

    Derrick Henry / play-action is most DEFINITELY helping his game though.

    Edit: 10 different players caught a pass last week...and his security blanket receiver is out.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2019
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  3. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Yeah, no.

    You have that correlation the same way you're not shouright.
     
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  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Have you looked in places other than a Dolphins forum?
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Now you're simply making things up. Give some proof of your claim that they committed to the run game.

    Another post where you make statements with no facts, just to dispute something that no one has argued ever.
     
  6. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Bwahahahahahaha!

    Let's start with his coaches shall we. Tannehill's first three years he was "coached" by HC Philbin, and two OC's in Sherman, and Lazor. All three are no longer employed in the NFL. Next we've got the fraud HC who rose to fame for holding Manning's clipboard and is currently, and thankfully, ruining the Jets.

    So go ahead, plug those deciding factors into your stat machine, and tell us what you get. :sidelol:
     
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  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    No, that's what you are fixated on.
     
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  8. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End

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    The thing that has always gotten me with these Tannehill arguments before and now.

    Do you believe that football is a team sport or is solely based on the QB's play and nothing else matters?
    If you believe it is a team sport than you MUST take into consideration the supporting players around the
    team and the impact they have on each other. You have to take the coaching and scheme into account.
    When ever that was pointed out by many they were told they were just making excuses and that a real
    QB wouldn't have those sort of troubles. Clearly people on that side of the argument believe that
    football is not a team sport and that the only player on the field that accounts for anything is the QB.
    He didn't magically get better in Tennessee, he looks like the same guy we watched here for years to
    me. He just has a better supporting cast and coaching that suits him. Arguing from a numbers standpoint
    alone is not going to give you a real picture, it's just not. The numbers have to figure in to the equation because
    you have to try to find someway to measure and compare. But if that is your only measure you're missing
    half the story and vice versa. It ALL Matters. Just like the composition of a team and a scheme.

    And if you are going to try to compare across era's you have to have a way to adjust the numbers like Cbrad is
    saying with Z scores. The rules are too different and the complexion of the game has changed dramatically. But like Baseball
    and every other sport the record books are NOT adjusted accordingly so it doesn't matter what ERA a player played in
    whomever the top guys are from that time are going to own the record books as long as the rules go ever further towards
    the offensive side of the ball. Heck if everything was adjusted in we might find Fran Tarkenton was the best QB ever! He
    racked up crazy yardage in an age when the game was all about running the football and guys could get their respective
    heads taken off. In the pocket or down the field. But again the record books aren't adjusted per era so if Tannehill ends
    up with a record or two at the end of this thing the only thing that is going to matter is the black and white of the page.
     
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Well I don’t think the extent to which we agree about what we’re all talking about is important. We can certainly disagree about that without much fuss.
     
  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Funny, but I still didn’t hear anything about Tennessee in the above post. That’s my point.
     
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You give me your definition of a commitment to the run game, and I’ll tell you when the Dolphins were committed to the run game.
     
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I’m not the one proposing that the surroundings in Tennessee are different.
     
  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Are you suggesting they are the same?
     
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  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes yes yes. We've explained these things over and over to him, but he ignores what he’s told, and simply spews the same stuff again.
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Then you need to up your understanding of what’s written. The fact is, Tennessee has not been a coaching dumpster fire like Miami, and the fact that you don’t understand that simple, clear fact is the entire problem.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    That's not at all how this works. YOU are making a claim. YOU support your claim. Stop trolling.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Actually that's not true. In baseball it's quite common today to quote adjusted stats like ERA+ which not only adjusts for average ERA of the league but also for the ballpark (whether it's pitcher or batter friendly). And as pointed out before WAR (wins above replacement) is now one of the most important stats quoted for comparing players, and WAR is implicitly adjusted for era.

    So while non-adjusted stats are still around, the weight placed on them for player comparison across eras (especially across many decades) has vastly decreased. Same thing will happen in football over time.
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What I’m saying is that we haven’t seen an analysis of the difference between the surroundings in Miami and the surroundings in Tennessee that would explain anywhere near the difference in Tannehill’s performance.

    Remember that Marcus Mariota was playing in the same surroundings, and his career performance prior to his benching wasn’t significantly different from Tannehill‘s. The team was 2-4 during his tenure as a starter this year, and we certainly didn’t hear anybody exclaiming anything about Tennessee’s amazing team surroundings back then.

    So either Tannehill’s surroundings in Tennessee got great all of the sudden, or they aren’t that great to begin with.
     
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I’m asking you to give me your definition of a commitment to the run game so that I can tell you when the Dolphins exhibited such a commitment. So I am taking it upon myself to support my own point, if you’re willing to give me your definition first.

    There’s no sense in proceeding if we’re talking about two different definitions of a commitment to the run game.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I’m happy to hear any sort of analysis of the difference between Miami and Tennessee’s coaching that’s supported by objective information. Have you seen that occur in this thread?
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Yes. Numerous times.

    Have you answered what a team can do to combat the pass rush?
     
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  22. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You’ve lost your mind!! When Miami committed to the run, they won and Tannehill performed!!! At work on my phone now but when I get home and in my laptop, I’m going to prove it...and how those numbers then are comparable to his numbers now
     
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  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again. Stop trolling. Give your definition that supports the claims you're making. My definition of commitment has absolutely zero to do with your definition and your claims.
     
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  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    How about you support your claim that there is no difference? Ultimate troll. Argue others people's statements, but never support your own.

    You made up a hypothetical situation "if there is no difference," gave no proof of that being in any way an accurate representation of anything, and then proceeded to draw conclusions about Tannehill based upon a hypothetical with zero supporting facts.
     
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  25. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Let’s look at Tennessee, comparing them to Miami.
    An example of a pre-season outlook:https://thescorecrow.com/2019/08/13/tennessee-titans-season-outlook/

    WR/TE. Tennessee has no one special, except maybe for AJ Brown. Tennessee doesn’t have a receiving roster of Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Steve Smith and Rob Gronkowski.

    OL: Has been poor. Was poor for at least 2 years before this season. Tennessee did get a FA OG Roger Saffold to help. HBut they did not break the bank on upgrading their OL. My eyes tell me that the difference between the Titans and the phins OL for Tannehill is that the Titans OL are getting beaten to allow pressure, but they aren’t whiffing completely on blocks and letting free rushers loose.

    RB: Derek Henry is a beast. Better than any RB Tanny had here, including Ajayi on “the stretch” in 2016.

    Defense: Tennessee’s D isn’t good. Depending on which rankings you use they’re rated about 20 in the league. So better than some years, worse than others relative to the phins.

    So on the talent front there really isn’t anything to explain an average QB getting an elite rating. This isn’t Trent Dilfer being carried by the Ravens D in 2000 or Mark Rypien being given an armchair ride behind the 1991 Hogs.

    Coaching. No one has been praising Mike Vrabel as an innivative game changing coach.
    What I have noticed is that the game plan involves a lot of things Tannehill is good at - rollouts and playaction. They use screens to the RB to help counter the pass rush and rarely use WR screens.
    What Vrabel is doing isn’t exactly rocket science.
     
  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    How about the use of play action passing? These are Tannehill's numbers this year:

    upload_2019-12-10_15-43-41.png
    The Titans are using play action passing on 26% of their pass plays.

    In 2014, Miami used PA on 26% of their pass plays. In 2015, it was 19%. In 2016, it was 22%. Tannehill has been a very good PA QB over his career and has a bigger than normal jump in passer rating between PA passing and non-PA passing (including a huge difference this year).

    Then there is this - https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/play-action-passing-and-game-conditions

    We have now covered a lot of ground on play-action across multiple pieces, so let's try to summarize everything we now know.

    First, play-action passes are most effective when there's the greatest situational threat of a run. Examples include play-action being more effective from under center than shotgun, being more effective on early downs, and being more effective for teams with a lead.

    Second, coaches appear to believe that rushing more often helps set up play-action: teams that run more often use play-action more often.

    Third, despite the above, there is no relationship between how often a given team has actually run -- whether over the course of a season or recently in a game -- and the effectiveness of their play-action attack. In other words, the threat of rushing is sufficient to set up play-action; teams don't actually need to run first before taking advantage of it.

    Fourth, as discussed above, play-action does not become less effective as the game goes on or as play-action is used more times in a game.

    Fifth, play-action primarily works by increasing the frequency and success of passes thrown to the intermediate part of the field, with depths of target between 10 and 20 yards downfield. This is because linebackers are sucked towards the line of scrimmage, opening up space behind them. This effect lasts throughout the game.​

    Look at that last conclusion and compare it to this comment on Tannehill this year:

    upload_2019-12-10_16-5-27.png


    More evidence that the coaching in Miami was brain dead:
    upload_2019-12-10_15-59-34.png
    upload_2019-12-10_16-0-21.png
     
  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Bingo!
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Just a correction on this. Last year Tennessee's defense was 3rd in the league by points allowed, and this year they're 9th (and since z-scores are a popular topic around here lol.. last year it was 1.35 while this year it's 0.72). That's way better than the last few years with the Dolphins who have been near bottom of the league in defense.

    I do however agree that Vrabel is putting Tannehill in a better position to succeed.

    Either way, it's REALLY hard to "explain away" Tannehill being 1st in passer rating after 8 games. Being 1st and playing like an elite QB are VERY different things than just saying he'll play much better with X, Y and Z. So I personally am fine with not trying to explain this because I have a hard time pointing to anything one can identify that would explain that huge jump.
     
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  29. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Vrabel, while not doing anything game-changing, seems very even-keeled and respected by the players (former players tend to garner respect quicker IMO). He seems to be involved and knowledgeable about all phases, and doesn't pass the defense off to the DC, etc. Doesn't strike me as the queasy type either.

    They're most definitely putting Tannehill in more situations to succeed compared to Philbo/Gase. They're used to it from having to try to tailor their offense around Mariota's limitations, so it's kinda easy, since Tannehill doesn't possess the same limitations. They start off relatively conservative early, and loosen it up, but they don't wait until the 2nd half to do it either.

    While their defense isn't great, they make solid adjustments, particularly at the half. They vastly outscore opponents in the second half. Including shutting out their last 2 opponents in the 2nd half.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think it’s time to block your posts. Take care.
     
  31. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I can promise you that if a guy comps rg3s season to what tannehill is doing in Tennessee this year you are wasting your time getting into meat and potatoes with him.
     
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  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Now all of that I can certainly get on board with. Thank you for the rigorous analysis supported by objective information.
     
  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    The bold is the point.

    Thill didn't need special circumstances, perfect scenarios or innovative coaching. He needed the basics and rarely got them. This has been said over and over and over.
     
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  34. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    How dare you?

    You have never provided anything objective nor have you even exhibited a base knowledge of football.

    This is why you were banned Shouright.

    The thing is, its ok if you don't know something, but you steadfastly refuse to even acknowledge the questions asked of you and continue to throw argument grenades into discussions all while pretending you're just trying to get to the truth.
     
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  35. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    If we can put in place a top tier RB an above average OL and a young WR who looks like T.O. when he was coming up as a 49er? Then it would be worth it.
     
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  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Tenn does not have an above average line.
     
  37. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Folks just saw the contract and assumed he was more than he was. He was a WR who could take the top off the defense and beat his man badly deep. Not the kind of guy that was going to win one on one battles and "out muscle" anyone to the ball.

    People saw 70M and thought we were getting Deandre Hopkins.

    He did his best to work on his game and actually became a solid possession guy his last year in Miami.

    People want to stand on pedestals and claim to be right too much, I've said it before and will say it again. Bad marriage relative to "fit".
     
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  38. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    People saw $70M and thought he could catch or track the ball or run a decent route.
     
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  39. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Yes they do.

    I doubt you have watched much beyond the highlights, but they are a vicious group who opens holes for Henry that this Dolphins team can only dream of. What happens when you have that luxury? Play action and defenders scared to get upfield on the pass rush and stay on their heels.

    I know you love Ryan, do not blame you for that. But let's not pretend he is side stepping defenders on a regular basis. The sacks I've noticed since he took over are likely a combination of his poor pocket presence and the Wr corps not being all that great save Brown.
     
  40. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Do you know what a decent route is? Serious question. Also, what was his catch %?? Let me know, thanks.
     

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