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Titans to start Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The problem with traditional measures of QB play (like passer rating) is that they treat all yards as equal and all game situations as equal. EPA and WPA overcome that problem. Here is an explanation of EPA:
    Here's is an explanation of WPA:
    We know that QBR incorporates both of these measures, and so there is certainly the possibility for improving upon traditional measures like passer rating, that don't contextualize any of the quarterback's performance in the above ways. Instead of not using QBR at all because we don't know the formula, what I would rather do is determine whether it correlates with consensus perceptions of quarterbacks' individual ability (well beyond one game, of course). It's entirely possible we're dealing with a measure that's head and shoulders above traditional passer rating.

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/8379024/nfl-explaining-expected-points-metric

    http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/01/win-probability-added-wpa-explained.html
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    No.. you want to dismiss QBR until they make their approach transparent. The fact all kinds of groups out there can get away with proposing rating systems in football without reproducibility is one of the best signs there is little interest from the scientific community in these questions because the moment it becomes a serious endeavor nothing gets published or considered without either reproducibility or at least a clear understanding of the methodology used (because too many humans love to engage in fraud).

    What ESPN should have done is just say they have a QB rating system based solely on EPA or on WPA without any attempt to apportion credit among players. That alone would have been an important contribution. It's the apportioning of credit that's the problem, and while I can see a theoretical way to solve that (the variances in EPA/WPA of different units such as WR or OL, keeping all others constant, theoretically gives you the weights on those units) there's no way in practice to get that data.

    Point is.. things have to be methodologically correct. It's irrelevant if the final result correlates better with human perception. That's like suggesting human perception should be the "gold standard" and there's no a priori reason to think that either. There are no short cuts here dude.. either someone proposes a transparent method that can be argued to be superior both conceptually and statistically to all current transparent methods, or we use the current transparent methods.
     
  3. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And as long as impacts and contributions are subjective (and they always will be), there's no 100% solution, unfortunately.
     
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, I'm not saying none of it is on him. We've seen Brady historically, when she gets hit, she plays poorly. But some of these throws aren't because of pressure, and I've seen him gesturing to receivers that they didn't read it right. The Pats offense is pretty complex, and the receivers and QB have to be on the same as far as recognizing what the defense is doing while the routes are being run, and both have to make there right decision about where the route is going based on the defenders.
     
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  5. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    So a QB who generally has good WR who catch that 8 yard pass and turn it into 12 for the first down benefit more than the guys with bad WR who catch it and downturn upfield?

    Again, I dont believe things even out in the NFL over time. Bad teams generally remain bad for a long enough period of time to impact career numbers. Same with good teams.

    I'm not sure this helps us sort out anything about the QB himself. In fact it seems even more slanted towards those with talent around them if anything.
     
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  6. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Too bad there's not an "unforced errors" stat like there is in Tennis eh? He's had quite a few.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I love that you used the word "she" (twice).. lol.
     
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  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    My brother's a NE fan so I've watched almost every single game this season, and I can confirm that they've slid quite a bit over the past month. They barely beat Buffalo and of course you guys saw the Miami game. What gives me the most hope is that they have been susceptible to the run and Henry has been surging of late...if they get the big man going early then I don't think this is a close game (if he starts strong, he ends as a freaking terror to trailing teams).

    As you said, this is Belichek and they've consistently beaten better teams in the playoffs one way or the other. It does feel like the stars are aligning though for the end of an era....and it was FitzMagic of all players who started that ball rolling downhill. Hopefully we see the full avalanche form!
     
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  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    My personal favorite is the dumpster diving at opposing team's hotel rooms since somebody always throws away a play sheet after a night with little sleep (from dozens of Pats fans screaming outside the hotel all night long...often with the police hanging out with them).

    I do agree that every team looks for tidbits of advantages, but New England has mastered it and takes things to another level. Maybe "cheating" isn't the right word here since it's all grey-area stuff, but once you combine the stealing, the harassment, the spying, the playbook collections, Ernie Adams lip-reading signals, dumpster diving, electronic equipment malfunctions, deflated footballs, recruiting opponent's players just for formal playbook interviews, etc...New England is the only professional in the league while everyone else is amateurs.

    The other factor is that NE has been mastering this process for over 20 years with the same people- McNally was caught deflating footballs for Bledsoe in 1999. Belichek apologized privately to other team owners for excessive spying in 2006. So you can't even compare what a team like the Dolphins can do in that grey area with a completely new staff even if they try their best to flat-out cheat...because we didn't build a part of our organization specifically for that.
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I've been arguing this for years.
     
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  11. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I think it's really hard because on some level...great QB do elevate those around them and perform.

    At the same time, the surrounding cast does impact the QB and different levels of ability on offense will result in different performance from the QB.

    I dont think there is any way to 100% and consistently determine who is who without seeing a player in multiple obviously different scenarios which rarely happens.

    There are exceptions I think like Peyton, Rodgers and so on, but those are exceptions not the rule.
     
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  12. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    As good a season as DVP had with Fitz, Brown had just as good after Tannehill took over. He still finished very strongly.

    DVP: 1202 yards, 9 TDs. 16.7 Y/R, 75.1 YPG, 56.3% catch%, 9.4 YPT
    AJB: 1051 yards, 9 TDs. 20.2 Y/R, 65.7 YPG, 61.9% catch%, 12.5 YPT

    AJB's numbers would've been better than DVP's if Tannehill had started the season as the starter.

    Hoping AJB gives Gilmore the DVP treatment on Saturday.
     
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  13. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I have a weird feeling he ends up moving on to Navy at some point and ending his career where his father coached.

    This is just a guess, of course.
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure they are still apportioning credit to different players at this point. Here is the latest explanation:
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/17653521/how-total-qbr-calculated-explain-our-improved-qb-rating

    When they provide the season standings, it looks like all the ingredients are provided as column headers:

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2020
  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But that happens all the time. Think of how many different configurations of players have been around Drew Brees for example throughout his career.

    Remember Marques Colston? Brees hasn't played with him in four years now. And that's just one of a multitude of examples, at wide receiver, tight end, running back, offensive line, etc.

    When these other players can come and go throughout a very long career and the QB's performance remains high, it becomes safe to say the QB has great ability.
     
  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Me too. I argued it with that guy who has been banned numerous times for causing trouble....what was his name again.....oh shouright. I wonder what happened to him?????:cool2:
     
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  17. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Well that doesnt necessarily contradict what I said. I did mention there are outliers (maybe it was a different post? It's hard to check on mobile sonetimes)

    There are certain players you know are great. There are more borderline type players though than elite ones though.
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But that applies to every QB who has a long enough career for a substantial amount of surrounding players to come and go.

    The issue is not that there is a small percentage of elite QBs; it's that it's possible to tease apart the ability of the QB, regardless of his ability level, from his surrounding players once he's been in the league long enough and those surrounding players have changed substantially.

    Instead of using Drew Brees, I could've used Andy Dalton for example. He's been in the league nine years and has had numerous configurations of surrounding players, yet his performance overall has been average. It's safe to say he's an average QB at this point, without attributing any of that to his surrounding players.

    In other words, the difference between Drew Brees and Andy Dalton isn't their surroundings, and we know that because their surroundings have changed substantially and one of them has performed at the elite level overall and the other one average.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2020
  19. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Is it really relevant though what we know after a player has been in the league X years though? I think we can probably all agree that, yes, at some point we can come to a consensus in most cases.


    By that time though you dont have a chance at the QB in question. He's already been drafted, signed, and is rostered. If hes clearly elite he probably isnt changing teams after all.

    What we should be talking about that none of us are, myself included, is how we can identify a potential target without X amount of years of data that isnt available because it hasn't occurred yet.

    Tannehill is our past regardless of his future success or failures.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    OK my fault -- I thought your point was that it's impossible to determine the ability level of a QB at any point because we can't tease it apart from his surroundings.

    Here's an interesting article about the point you made in the quote above, which speaks to what you said about the difficulty in projecting how these players will perform in the NFL:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/
     
  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes and no...clearly this thread has legs because some of us identified early on that Tannehill was the real deal. We didn’t need years of data.
     
  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I've thought that same thing FO. And now that the academy grads can go to the NFL first, they may start getting better talent.

    Belichick reprogrammed the Navy's defense this year too...helped them into top 25 and to a bowl game win.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...resurgence-heading-into-army-game/2622401001/
     
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  23. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You've continuously beat this drum of needing "more data" on Tannehill before granting him "elite" status. I'm curious, when would you have officially granted Brees "elite" status?

    His 2006 season with the Saints, taking them from 3-13 to 10-6 and all the way to the NFC Championship Game?
    The 2007 season in which the Saints finished 7-9 and didn't make the playoffs?
    The 2008 season in which the Saints finished 8-8 and didn't make the playoffs?
    The 2009 season in which the Saints went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl?

    I'm just curious because you keep calling for "more data, more data". At what point is enough enough?
     
  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    There's only one answer and that's the GM recognizing that talent and the coaching being able to develop a team around that talent. For instance, we like to think that if Rodgers or Wilson played in Miami then they'd have the exact same career trajectory, but the truth is that either one of them could have washed out of the NFL completely. There are so many factors involved and a lot of them have nothing to do with the player himself.

    I mean, look at a guy like Matt Moore...played hurt in Carolina with concussions, got benched and never really got a 2nd chance as a legit starter, even when he led Miami through some really good games. He lands in KC and again looks great off the bench...only to return to the bench once someone else is healthy again. Over his past 4-5 years his limited on-field production has consistently been top-10 numbers, but it doesn't matter because he's already been labeled as a great backup, but DEFINITELY not the guy.

    The question is why- he's outplaying 20+ starters across the league. Why can't he get a chance while we see someone like Fitzpatrick start for 11 total teams? And the answer is simple...too simple really. Fitz was an easy "plug and play" solution for our current offense (which if we're being honest is a hot steaming mess). Rosen is not and neither is Matt Moore or Ryan Tannehill.

    Does that mean Fitz is better than Rosen, Moore or RT? Not at all...but we have a coach and a GM that wants to develop around Fitzpatrick short-term because he's so versatile. Blocking is optional. Receivers getting open doesn't really matter. Fitz is a Jack of all trades and a master of none, so he's our guy. Everyone else requires too much effort in a complete rebuild.

    And don't get me wrong, I absolutely LOVE Fitzpatrick! But he might be the least talented out of all the QB's mentioned so far.

    The real question to ask here is not how to evaluate our next great QB, but who fits best with our team vision and can execute at the highest possible level. We can't answer that though because our team has zero identity on offense; it's just Fitz running for his life and throwing jump balls to covered receivers. We know nothing about that is sustainable and the next QB up will require a lot of fine-tuning around him...which makes it all the more likely that Fitz is our quarterback next season as well.

    So this isn't a conversation about who's "the best" QB in the draft- it's who we want to stand behind and build around. For instance, Rosen is plenty capable just like Moore or Tannehill, but making that one commitment eventually ties you into a dozen others as well in terms of blocking, what routes you'll run, what traits you need in receivers and running backs, play design, coaches developing that talent, etc. That's how you end up with Rodgers being one of the all-time greats and Moore being a disposable backup...the talent is just a small part of that equation.
     
  25. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Your link in the very first sentence says this:
    There would be no selling point to QBR if they couldn't say they're better at isolating a QB's contribution to a play. Same selling point for DVOA. According to wiki, the formula was modified in 2012 and 2013 but no mention of any modifications after that, and links in 2016 explicitly say they're apportioning credit:
    https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo...-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating

    Regardless, no one can reconstruct the formula from any description provided. So again.. best to dismiss due to lack of transparency.
     
  26. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    You’re trying to explain the issues with secretive proprietary metrics with a person who used to or still does try to sell their own secretive proprietary metrics which is why they were originally banned.
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Is that true??? Wow.. if that's true that explains a lot. I hope you know that for a fact.
     
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  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    97.4% sure
     
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  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I know you were speaking to the other fellow, but I would've considered Brees elite after his 2009 season, which is when it became clear that his performance had varied around that range for several seasons, including one of his seasons with San Diego. And that doesn't have anything to do with how his teams performed, as you've implied in the post quoted above.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Is that adjusted for era? :tongue2::tongue2::crapstrom::crapstrom::crapstrom:
     
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  31. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    And yet in 2012, 14, 15, 16 the Saints were horrible but Brees still maintained his “elite” status.

    For me I don’t need any further data. I know football and know it’s a TEAM sport. You can have the greatest quarterback under center, like we had with Marino and still lose. And until Tannehill throws for 1200 yards a game every game and 17 touchdowns per game, some here are never going to give Tannehill his due
     
  32. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Multiple times (don't know anything about selling stuff, but was definitely banned 2 or 3 times that I saw)...at first, I thought you were him when you first started. But it didn't take long to realize you were too knowledgeable and level-headed to be.
     
  33. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Sure, Sherman. You shoulda done something about it, and not let him (Tannehill) get demolished early (read below).

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/...g-tennessee/uyignFKGwsORtIP8ueFeJP/story.html

    “It doesn’t surprise me — he always had talent,” said Mike Sherman, who coached Tannehill for four years at Texas A&M, then was his offensive coordinator with the Miami Dolphins for Tannehill’s first two seasons. “That’s the great thing about football — it takes 11 [players], and the 11 he’s playing with now are probably better than the 11 he was playing with in the past.

    If we go back and check the league and check the quarterbacks that had those type of consistent changes, they’ve usually struggled,” Sherman said. “Tom Brady has been in the same scheme since Day 1. You can’t overburden a quarterback with different systems.

    He was thrown to the wolves right away and never had a chance to grow as a quarterback,” Sherman said. “It always felt like, ‘We need an offensive line here, we need to be able to protect this kid.’"
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2020
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  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    But if that person wanted to sell secretive proprietary metrics that state Tannehill is horrible, wouldn't they be on Houston or at least an AFC South board? I'd think it would make more sense to try and sell to folks who would agree with what the fake stats are saying...
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Uh, he was banned for that years ago.
     
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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    We're actually agreeing, because apparently neither you nor I measure quarterback play by how much their teams win.
     
  37. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Those teams don't have fans that can point out flaws in the system that can be adjusted/corrected.
     
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  38. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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  39. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    The folks in this thread are doing a GREAAAAT job discussing the post and not the poster.

    I also recall a mod saying to lay off the accusations that who is who and the fact that is being ignored and he is mocked with being “banned multiple times” has irony as thick as Zack Thomas’ neck.

    Get a life ppl. Sheesh
     
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  40. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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