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To Win or To Tank

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Oct 13, 2019.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    While I've come around accepting the idea that we're going to have a really bad year in exchange for a really big draft, the one thing that's really bothered me is setting up players to waste their short careers on a team that doesn't have their best short-term interests at heart. I think we were probably destined to lose 3 of the first 4 before the tank either way, but now we're facing a really bad Washington team that likely has less business winning than we do.

    My question to you is if you're okay with INTENTIONALLY losing- not by just trading away most of our talent, but actually throwing a game to let an inferior team win. Is that acceptable?
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Works for me. You win in this league by having one of the league's best QBs and churning the rest of your roster with large numbers of draft picks so that you aren't paying very many players the exorbitant salaries they make after their first contracts expire.

    The team is finally set up to accomplish both of those things, and some small number of wins in the year 2019 pales in comparison to the importance of all that.
     
  3. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    At the end of the day football is an entertainment sport and, I'm NOT being entertained. I would feel better about the prospects for a winning trend in future years if it wasn't for the fact that Ross is directly responsible for the black cloud hanging over the franchise by bringing in the likes of Tannenbaum, the inept Joe Philbin and, boy wonder wanna be, The Whisperer. And Ross is still calling the shots.
    It looks to me like they're putting all their eggs in one basket again thinking that a highly touted QB will turn things around.
    It very well could but, the track record of the front office says otherwise.
     
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  4. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Darnold is in for the Jets and they look way better on offense. This leaves the Bengals game as the last possible win for Miami -or at least on paper the last game where the Phins might have a realistic shot at a win.
     
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  5. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

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    I honestly wouldn't care if we lost intentionally although I would prefer they do it organically. We've wasted plenty of players careers the last 20 years by being mediocre, most of the guys currently on the team are not going to be here next year so this is their shot to audition for us or potentially other teams so I don't see that as a waste for them. If tanking doesn't work and we suck next year then I might just follow this team for 70 more years but after that I'm done.
     
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  6. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    lol this team wins games they have no business winning.. theres going to be a game this season that we are going to be in the 4th quarter and think; huh? We might actually win this game? And itll be against a top team... like the eagles...

    dont write off the dolphins at Week 17 against the Patriots. My guess is the patriots will already have their seed and home field advantage determined before that game and Belichick is going to rest his players. He has said before that it may have been a good idea to rest his players on week 17 of their near perfect season to get rid of that unnecessary pressure of being perfect.
     
  7. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    It might have been smart of them to just sit our first game and have an extra bye week lol they probably would still have won.
     
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  8. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I’ve spent the last 20 years watching this team go 6-10, 7-9, 8-8, 9-7.

    I’m ok with one year of 0-16 for the promise of something different. By any means necessary. Throw games? Whatever. It’s just sports. I’ve learned not to take it so seriously.
     
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  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Just posting this as good for thought. You’re not the only one beating the drum for tanking to get the first pick for quarterback, but take a good close look at this and then truly ask yourself if the number 1 pick truly means getting that quarterback that’s going to make you a champion

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ng-every-quarterback-class-of-this-millennium
     
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  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    We aren't tanking.

    Tanking means we are intentionally trying to lose, which we aren't. What we are doing is called rebuilding and numerous other teams have done this exact thing before and no one called it tanking.

    Armando called this tanking, LAST YEAR, before any significant action was taken. All we had done at that point was explain this year was going to be a league typical and normal rebuilding year for the Dolphins. Armando, who loves Gase, was pissed he was let go, so he started the tanking narrative.

    And make no mistake, it is a narrative. Tunsil and Minkah were not planned. They were even let go waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy AFTER Armando started rebranding this rebuild as tanking. And really, those are the only two players that people can point to that made a real impact and again, they were not planned.
     
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  11. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not mad that the Dolphins are tanking but I've definitely lost some respect for them as a franchise because I don't believe tanking fixes the core issue.

    The tank will get the Dolphins more picks and money. But that's not what's been hurting them through the last 2 decades. The problem with the Dolphins has never been a lack of resources. The team simply hasn't acquired the right people. We've seen it with HCs, FAs and draft picks.

    And when you survey the multitude of teams that have pulled themselves up you see it wasn't because those teams simply had more draft capital than the opposition.

    In the NFL bad franchises find ways to be bad. Good franchises find ways to be good. The quality of your franchise is measured by the quality and the consistency of your decisions.

    The topic of QBs is a great example.

    Good QBs actually present themselves quite often. Good franchises find those QBs when they need a replacement. Look at all the recent guys who've gone to teams either through FA or through draft trades or through being selected outside the top-10: Jimmy Garoppolo (pick #62 & subsequent trade), Derek Carr (pick #36), Russell Wilson (pick #75), Deshaun Watson (pick #12), Aaron Rodgers (pick #24), Dak Prescott (pick #135), Patrick Mahomes (draft trade-up / pick #12), Carson Wentz (draft trade-up / pick #2), Kirk Cousins (pick #102 & FA signing), Peyton Manning (FA signing), etc.

    Meanwhile the list of QBs taken inside the top-10 is not nearly as great as some make it seem: Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Baker Mayfield, Andrew Luck, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitch Trubisky, Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold, Mark Sanchez, Josh Allen, Blake Bortles, etc.

    It's pretty clear that having a top pick is not the thing that matters. It's finding the right guy that matters. And the majority of those "right guys" have gone at places where virtually anyone could've made a move to get them.

    The secret to the NFL is that there's no secret. Bad teams are bad because they consistently make bad decisions. The Browns were in position to take: Wilson, Cousins, Prescott, Carr, Wentz, Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky and many others. They passed on all those guys in favor of other guys like Weeden, Manziel and Kiser.


    People have at least respected the Dolphins because they've managed to be decent. They've never been as bad as many of the worst teams. They've hit on guys like Olivier Vernon, Vontae Davis, Kenyan Drake, Jarvis Landry, Reshad Jones, Xavien Howard, Laremy Tunsil, etc. They've occasionally hit on FAs like Randy Starks and Cameron Wake. They've made attempts to acquire proven players like Brandon Marshall, Branden Albert and Ndamukong Suh. They hit on enough guys to be respectable.

    Tanking is going to make the next few drafts exciting but there's no obvious reason to think it will really improve the fundamental problem which is that Miami has consistently failed to put everything together. They've failed to recognize who the better QB prospect are. They've failed to hire the better HC candidates. They've failed to bring stability to the O-line. They've failed to draft any worthwhile DE outside of Olivier Vernon while instead drafting 2 huge busts (Harris & Jordan).

    You can't be bad at fixing DE, O-line and expect to be good. You can't be bad at recognizing and evaluating QB talent. You can't be bad at hiring the right coaches.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2019
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Ross admitted we're trying to lose, at least according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article234548232.html
    And as far as the Tunsil trade..
    So yeah we're tanking. Or at least the owner and GM are. I don't see any evidence the players are (wouldn't make sense IMO) and I also don't think Flores is, but the Miami Dolphins as an organization is tanking.
     
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And of course the players and coaching staff don't have to intend to lose during games for the organization to purposefully tank. The owner and GM just need to agree that the roster will have such inferior talent that any effort the players and coaching staff give can't possibly matter.
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Getting a quarterback first overall in the draft certainly doesn't guarantee a championship, but getting a quarterback at any other spot in the draft, or drafting a player at any other position at any spot in the draft, doesn't either.

    It's not like you can say, "getting a QB at number one overall isn't a good idea, so we'll trade back to number five overall [or any other hypothetical spot in the draft], where the elite quarterbacks have always been taken."

    So in the end you're simply better off having the first overall pick.
     
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  15. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I would of thought you of all people would require more and reliable data points to make such a damning conclusion. As it stands, the only thing resembling evidence is the first link. The second is not evidence of anything other than what I said, they never planned to trade Tunsil, which means using the Tunsil trade as evidence they are tanking makes no sense.

    As for the quote from the coach, that’s hardly anything. It is a paraphrased quote given without context, secondhand.

    We do have actual quotes from Ross and Grier talking about this as a rebuild however.
     
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  16. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Eh doubt Ross likes to see what is being shown on the field.. Trace back 15 years, no one was looking forward to face Zach and Jason Taylor. Even when we were mediocre we still had an identity, a brand.

    Teams know that when they face the Bears their quarterbacks are in for a long day. They have a brand, they identify as monsters. And when the offseason is there players are lining up hoping they can be part of that brand

    The dolphins have nothing, no brand no identity. We are likely going to have to overpay a few players this upcoming offseason to become part of a rebranding culture. Players around the league arent lining up thinking damn I want to play for that Coach Flores guy, look at what hes done on the field.

    Players may do that for Kris Prichard who will have a head coaching job next season. Or the Redskins if they trade for Coach Tomlin..

    but Brian Flores? Hes a complete unknown to the league... and so far 0-6 he has done nothing to draw interest. The only interest we can draw is the fact that we have a lot of money to spend.
     
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  17. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is correct.

    The more I really study the idea of tanking, the more I worry that it's going to be a massive mistake.

    If we had 10 first round picks, I'd feel better. But right now we basically have to hit on everything: QB, DE, LT, S, CB, G, RT, etc. It's going to be a LONG rebuild and the Dolphins have given themselves the maximum amount of work to do. They have exposed themselves to maximum degree.

    Chris Grier had better be something really special for this to work out.
     
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  18. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Thats why I think we need to fire Grier and bring in Ozzie Newsome... Ozzie Newsome is a highly respected executive and he knows how to pick talent.. he knows what it suppose to look like in the training facilities, preseason, and on the field.. look at what hes done for the Ravens..

    He mostly retired because he felt his job was done in Baltimore.

    and right now for as bad as we have it on the field, the resources we have to offer for a highly coveted team president/GM is the most attractive in the NFL. We have a whole lot of capspace and a ton of first round picks. And many second day picks. No other team in the NFL has this to offer. Lots of executives usually end up having to enter a franchise and fix their capspace and gut their roster.

    Ozzie can step in January and have it all in his hands right away.
     
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  19. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Obviously none of us knows exactly what Ross is thinking, but if it looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck.. it probably is a duck. And what we've done fits exactly with what teams do when they tank: they get rid of most of their key players, assemble lots of draft picks, and keep losing so that they're on track to get the top draft pick in the draft.

    As far as what Ross and Flores say, in MLB and NBA there were many instances where the tanking was obvious at the time but not admitted to until later, but while the tanking was going on you never saw the owner or coach admit to it.. except once were Mark Cuban admitted to it and was fined 600k from the NBA for doing so. The hit to the credibility of the NFL (or MLB or NBA) is just way too large if the owner comes out and admits to tanking because that means games are being fixed.

    So sure, we don't really know what Ross is thinking (but then neither do you so you shouldn't proclaim we aren't trying to lose) but everything that is happening, including what Ross publicly says, is exactly what you tend to see during tanking.
     
  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    There's a difference between the FO "tanking" and the team and coaches "tanking." FinD already explained it very well up above.
     
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  21. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't know if you're responding to anyone in particular but I would advise you to avoid anyone who suggests this isn't a tank. Such posters are likely trolling.

    Nobody in their right mind would suggest the Miami Dolphins aren't tanking...c'mon...
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah in my original post here, post #12, I made it clear it was Ross and Grier (under Ross's instructions) that were responsible for the tanking, not the HC during games and certainly not the players.
     
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  23. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Was responding to Fin D.

    Conversation so far is fine. In the end it's not that important to me what everyone else thinks about this so I have no issue just ending the debate and saying we have our own separate opinions. But yes I agree it's pretty obvious we're tanking.
     
  24. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    It is also precisely what teams do when they rebuild. We didn't get rid of most of our good players, we got rid of 2....TWO...... because one was given a ridiculous surprise offer and the other wanted out (and again, everyone said we were tanking BEFORE either player left). Neither were planned. If neither were planned, how is that tanking since tanking requires intent to tank, by definition?

    So, to recap we are tanking because:

    - Ross & Grier are lying
    - A random coach with a random quote and no context, said we were tanking based on info he received during a job interview for a job he didn't get.
    - We traded two of our better players, not according to plan, because tanking and trading them was our plan, I guess.
    - Bringing in Fitzpatrick and Rosen, was for ****s and giggles, I guess as well.
    - And before any of that actually happened, a bitter reporter with a history of lying, said we were tanking.....
     
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  25. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Put it this way: if we did NOT want the #1 pick and we just wanted to rebuild, then why get rid of Tannehill? Makes no sense.

    Tannehill for all his faults would have been better than Rosen (Rosen is going down IMO as one of the bigger busts in NFL history among QB's picked in the top 10). The Rosen trade was a low risk high potential reward attempt to solve our QB problems with a trade rather than the #1 draft pick in 2020. In other words, the plan IMO was to tank unless by some chance Rosen worked out.

    None of this is hard to believe actually, especially that Ross and Grier are denying trying to get that #1 pick.
     
  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Well, to be fair we cut a lot of veterans before Tunsil and Minkah. I'm still a little sore over Wake but happy to see he's with a good team. Would love to see him get a ring before retirement!
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Have they verbally denied it (other than saying, "We're trying to win every game!")? I can't bring myself to listen to the press conferences.
     
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  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    We got a pick for Thill. He was a player that wasn't part of our future that could net us a return. That is what rebuilding teams do. Rosen was a decent risk, considering we used high draft capital on him. I mean really think about it....why take a risk on a QB like that if your plan is to tank to get a QB? It literally makes no sense.
     
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  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Tanning and trying to lose are two different things.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    OK did some googling and did find Grier denying it:
    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ami-dolphins-gm-chris-grier-theres-no-tanking
    Can't find an explicit denial by Ross. He does seem more circumspect in his language.
     
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  31. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Actually they aren't.

    Tanking is trying to lose for another benefit like money or draft status. Rebuilding is different, because rebuilding means not trying to win or lose, just trying to fix the team from the ground up.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I disagree. The Tannehill move doesn't make sense during a rebuild. You keep your starting QB while drafting a new one. You don't dump him while taking a wild gamble on an unproven guy. However.. IF you wanted to tank, then the Tannehill move makes perfect sense.
     
  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I understand you think that, but you're not explaining why you think that. As I said, Thill got you draft capital. There's no "teaching" benefit that Thill can provide that any other veteran cannot. Not too mention, you clear his salary off the books, for next year too.
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This article outlines some of what you're saying:

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/...en-traded-miami-barnwell-explains-why-a-steal
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    If I was a GM engaged in a "rebuild" after the 2018 Dolphins season, I'd try to keep the best available QB on the roster at all times because it's very difficult to find a true franchise QB. So I wouldn't replace Tannehill with a less capable QB like Fitz or unknown like Rosen.

    I would keep building the QB's surrounding cast while drafting QB's (if necessary in the mid-rounds if there are better prospects at other positions in the early rounds) until you find your solution at QB. This would contrast with what we did during the Tannehill years where we didn't keep drafting QB's until we found a better one.

    That's my position at least. Of course, if I was trying to "tank", then I'd definitely get rid of Tannehill and sign a journeyman QB (Fitz). Rosen was a low risk high potential reward gamble that, if you're lucky, allows you to change strategy midseason and stop tanking.
     
  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Right, but again.....why, when considering.....

    1. You know Thill is not the future and is viewed no more than a back up in the league, just like Fitz.
    2. You need to purge his salary.
    3. You can actually get draft capital for him, if you trade him now.
    4. There's nothing Thill can teach a new guy, that any veteran QB with real playing time cannot.

    And all of that is still assuming we are purposely trying to lose with explicit purpose of getting top pick in the draft to take a QB, but yet we get Rosen.

    It is flat out not adding up.

    Rebuilding doesn't mean you're trying to win, it just means you don't really care if you win or lose. If you don't care about the record, why keep Thill? Your premise only works if the team was NOT trying to rebuild, but instead do as they always do.
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    The Rosen trade makes sense. That's already been explained.

    Regarding Tannehill, I can accept it's consistent with rebuilding if you think it's easy to draft a better QB. But if you think it's hard to find a better-than-average QB, then you don't replace your starting QB with a less capable option (and I think Tannehill > Fitz though not by that much) even if you can get a draft pick and clear some salary.
     
  38. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    You aren't addressing any point I made about Thill. Nothing about the draft capital, nothing about salary, nothing mentoring, nothing about Thill not being the future.

    Again, why ignore the draft capital and salary issues, when you don't care about the record this year? What point does that actually serve? Before Gase was let go, before Flores was brought in, before even Tbaum was let go, EVERYONE was clamoring for Thill to go. Pundits, fans, posters here....everyone. But somehow, now that there's a new narrative to perpetuate, getting rid of Thill is proof of tanking??!?!?!?!?!

    A team can approach a season in one of 3 ways:

    1. Try to win as much as possible.
    2. Try to lose as much as possible.
    3. Rebuild and not worry about the record one way or the other.

    2 is tanking. We are doing 3. Keeping Thill and ignoring his salary and ROI in draft capital, is 1. People calling this tanking are counting anything that counts as 2 or 3 as tanking, which is inaccurate.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Umm.. do you even read my posts? The very post you quoted addressed draft capital and salary. And I already addressed Tannehill not being the future from the outset, saying you need to replace him. I agree there's nothing gained with him mentoring anyone.
     
  40. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    You just say it isn't worth it. that's not really explaining anything. It is just restating your stance.

    Rebuilding in the NFL is specifically tearing your team down to the rafters and getting as much capital and cap space as you can. You say, the draft capital and salary cap isn't important (with no actual reasoning behind that) therefore it isn't rebuilding. That makes literally no sense because these are the things that make it rebuilding.

    Essentially, you want to ignore cap space and draft capital for an extra win or two that Thill over Fitz/Rosen would provide, maybe. That's you NOT rebuilding.
     

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