Favre's "gunslinger" mentality has cost his teams wins. However, without that mentality Favre never becomes the elite QB he WAS or the legend he will always be. Brady has never really had to win games. Sure, his play HELPS, but rarely has he had some sort of late heroic TD drive to win the game. Brady, especially early on in his career, just had to not lose the game. In 2007 and in this season he was/is a bigger part of the winning. However, 2 seasons doesn't make a QB top 10 all time.
I disagree. From about Brady's third season on, he's been the best player on that offense and the primary reason they win or lose. And Favre's gunslinger mentality may be the reason he's a franchise QB, but it's also the reason he's not on my top 10 list. He simply is responsible for losing too many games.
Pressure stats are this years stats. Since you have crunched the numbers, and worked ALL the stats. How about sharing those "career" pressure stats with us? If Brady wilts under pressure as you claim (but is not true) whereas the other great ones don't then that would definitely make Brady the greatest QB when not under pressure of all-time. Because if his stats are as poor as you say that would mean his stats are off the chart when not under pressure (above all others) to put him where he is at statistically with the other QBs.
During the Super Bowl winning years the Patriots defense and O-Line, as a whole for each group, were 100x's more responsible for those wins than Brady. Without those Super Bowl wins, and unlike the other great QB's, Brady really wouldn't be talked about as being top 20. Much less top 10. Same with Bradshaw, Griese, Aikman and a few others. Super Bowl wins do not equal greatness. Now, it is true that many "great" QB's have won Super Bowls, but that factor is not the reason they are great.
Getting in late on this but Brady got NE in the position to kick the GW field goal in the 2001 and 2003 Super Bowls, with little time on the clock. He holds the record for most TD passes in a season and is still very good despite a less than stellar supporting cast this year. I don't know if he is the best EVER. But he is better than both Favre and Manning, both of whom have mediocre TD/INT ratios in the playoffs. Is he better than Elway? Not sure as Elway could also run. Same for Montana but Montana had Rice. But he is definitely in the top 5 discussion.
Brady has always been great under pressure. I recall a game against us his second season. We were obviously (to me) sending a blitz and it seemed to me that Brady hadn't read it. The Pats ran a PA pass that left Brady with his back to the coming blitzer. I was pumped b/c that's the kind of play where something good usually happens like a QB fumble. Brady turned around with the blitzer right in his face and calmly tossed it to the fullback while stepping back. It was only a two yard completion, but I remember telling my buddy at that moment that this guy is going to be good. Its what Brady has done his whole career. Not only does he make all those big plays, but he rarely makes the bad play. Really, other than a few times against our own JT, Brady has almost never been the reason the Pats lost.
The Pat's defense was good, but Brady helped that OL look as good as it did. He rarely held the ball too long. His movement in the pocket was perfect. His release is fast. He makes that OL much more than they make him.
If you want to talk this season he has 34 TDs vs. 4 Ints this season and just set a record for most pass attempts w/o throwing an INT and name one elite receiver he has this year? Gimpy Welker? I have no idea how he is doing this. Keep in mind he is a bad weather QB as well (does not have the dome luxury of Manning) and the only "GREAT" RB he has ever played with is Corey Dillon in 2004. Give the man his due, he is a top five QB of all time. He is better than Manning, better than Favre, better than Aikman, better than Marino. I am not sure if he is better than Elway and Montana and maybe even Steve Young in their prime. That is debatable.
Hey MarinePhinFan while I respect your opinion you have to give Brady his props. Hell I don't likt the team but hes a hell of a QB and your telling me with your unbiased love of Henne that you wouldn't trade him for Brady in a second? What would be our record this year if Brady was on the team instead of Henne? Just curious I think we would be in the Playoffs easily. Brady deserves some respect (not love) but respect from NFL fans. What hes been able to do with constant changes around him has been incredible. Every year he plays they are relative.
I have been trying to avoid this thread like the plague. And I keep wondering why it's the most popular thread on the forum in terms of responses. But... Why is this on the Dolphins board? I've seen threads that had much more to do with Miami get moved in a heartbeat. And, no. Not the greatest of all time. He's a great QB, but he plays in a great system. Two words: Matt Cassell. Looked like an all pro in the same system. Look at the difference in today's NFL and yesterday's NFL. Let Dan Marino in his prime play in today's NFL and he makes Tom Brady look like John Beck. Peyton Manning is the closest thing to Dan Marino in today's NFL.
Its on this board because we face NE this week. And I STRONGLY disagree with you. Let me say it again, STRONGLY disagree with you. We will not discuss Dan Marino, I have too much respect for him and it was a different era. But no way an INDOOR QB, named Peyton Manning is better than Tom Brady. The one year, Brady played with a stellar receiving core, he threw 50 TDs. He has 34 TDs this year with a marginal support cast and his two running backs are FA cast offs. May I say one more time that I respectfully DISAGREE with you. You put Brady on this Dolphins team and we win 12 games easily.
LOL, c'mon bro do you really believe this nonsense or are your Aqua and Blue homerglasses blinding your eyes? You actually said "Brady has never really had to win games"? Who's winning the games out there then, Bugs Bunny? Seriously bro, just stop. Is he the GREATEST EVER? Not in my opinion. However, he can *possibly* become that if he registers another Super Bowl ring or two and has at least 4-5 more years of great play. However, he almost certainly is in the Top 10 of all-time quarterbacks already and I frankly don't think it's even debateable. Just look at Bill Belichick's career win-loss record with Brady and without Brady. Do you think it's mere coincidence that his record without him is 10 games UNDER .500 but with the guy he is suppossedly the 2nd coming of Vince friggen Lombardi? C'mon man. The guy plays in the northeast where it is cold and sometimes snowy/windy from Thanksgiving on and yet his stats are still in the same ballpark with guys like Manning and Marino who both got to enjoy playing all their home games in ideal conditions their entire career. To say Brady isn't on the same level as those two guys is just frankly absurd. Is he better than those two? I don't know. ALL 3 are GREAT and I wouldn't complain if any one of those 3 were my QB in their primes if I was a coach. For my money, since 1980(aka the modern era) I would put Marino, Manning, Brady, Young and Elway as my top 5 QB's in no particular order. Favre was every bit as good in the mid to late 90's but his shelf life of playing intelligent, GREAT football went south quick and has basically just alternated between having good years and mediocre/bad years for over a decade now.
No what LOGICAL people do is do it by the same TIME FRAME... you know Brady been playing NINE years show them against the 9 years of the greats... And I am GIVING you an extra year (he missed 1 full year!) But again comparing players of different generations is VERY Hard, why? well up until recently MOST players stayed with 1 team for a career so very easy to develop and KEEP a re pore with your receivers and Lineman where they knew what you wanted without having to wait. Also you state Brady has like forever to throw "90%" of the time as if it was a fact, which it isn't that is your opinion. The Fact is that pressure from the Outside he is very good at avoiding and stepping away from, BUT like any QB pressure quickly up the middle on him does throw his passes off. (Case and point you got pressure on Marino up the middle you usually stopped him) Now before 07 that never worked on Brady because he would deliver the ball too fast to Branch, Patton etc when Moss got here he (get this) needed time for the play develop to get the ball down field. Thus quick pressure worked because Brady is NOT a running QB. This all said MarinePhin I will never agree with your top 20, for a few reasons: 1. Rewards Players like Favre for Longevity even though their numbers if broken down fairly are good, but hardly great. 2. You do nothing to realize that before the salary cap and free agency period it was easier to put great numbers up... (Chemistry and spending a career together pads stats!) 3. Someone disagrees with you, you don listen or look into it you just laugh and go on your Trojan High horse and say how we are all wrong and you are right.. have you yet noticed you are ALONE thinking Brady is not top 10 never mind top 20.
Ahh but look who the Pats FACED that year, was a cupcake schedule, but thats not important. Now look at how many SACKS Cassell had I do believe he was one of the most sacked QB's in the league. That alone should show that Brady makes the O line look better and or draws their attention to assignments better than other QB's. Also the Pats have a great team and with BB as coach most QB's can succeed, few be as good as Brady!
Remember the NFL Network just completed its Top 100...you can sort by position http://top100.nfl.com/ They listed 19 QBs (I dont agree with this completely, but its a solid list - I agree with them Kurt Warner gets overlooked - Aikmen is interesting add too) NFL Rank.....Fans Rank..... Name .....Position .....Team..... First Year..... Status..... Career..... Watch 4 2 Montana, Joe QB 49ers 1979 12 seasons Video Draft vote Joe Montana Joe Montana QB Drafted: 1979, Round 3, Pick 82 Career: 16 seasons, 192 games Notes: Montana turned the 49ers into the team of the ‘80s as he led them to four Super Bowl titles. He was MVP in three of those wins. He directed 31 fourth-quarter comeback wins, including the winning drive in Super Bowl XXIII. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 6 14 Unitas, Johnny QB Colts 1955 19 seasons Draft vote Johnny Unitas Johnny Unitas QB Drafted: 1955, Round 9, Pick 102 Career: 19 seasons, 211 games Notes: With 40,239 yards and 290 TDs, Unitas was the NFL's most prolific passer at the time of his retirement. But numbers tell only part of the story. His leadership and poise are what really make him one of the all-time greats. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 8 5 Manning, Peyton QB Colts 1998 Active 11 seasons Video Draft vote Peyton Manning Peyton Manning QB Drafted: 1998, Round 1, Pick 1 Career: 12 seasons, 192 games Notes: Blessed with a strong arm, intelligence, determination and leadership, Manning has been compared to the NFL's greats. He has smashed the record books, with more marks destined to fall. He has started 192 straight games. Active NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 14 74 Baugh, Sammy QB Redskins 1937 22 seasons Draft vote Sammy Baugh Sammy Baugh QB Drafted: 1937, Round 1, Pick 6 Career: 16 seasons, 165 games Notes: An accurate thrower, Baugh's passing ability helped change the game. He won a record six NFL passing titles, while also setting marks as a punter and defensive back. He led the NFL in passing, punting and INTs in 1943. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 16 75 Graham, Otto QB Browns 1944 12 seasons Draft vote Otto Graham Otto Graham QB Drafted: 1944, Round 1, Pick 4 Career: 12 seasons, 126 games Notes: The consummate leader, Graham played four years in the AAFC and six in the NFL, and he guided the Browns to the league title game in each of them. He passed for 174 touchdowns and ran for 44. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 20 6 Favre, Brett QB Packers 1991 Active 17 seasons Draft vote Brett Favre Brett Favre QB Drafted: 1991, Round 2, Pick 33 Career: 19 seasons, 289 games Notes: The first player to be named MVP three straight years, Favre is the all-time leader in almost every passing category, including yards (69,329) and TDs (497). He broke Jim Marshall's mark for consecutive starts at any position. Active NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 21 20 Brady, Tom QB Patriots 2000 Active 10 seasons Video Draft vote Tom Brady Tom Brady QB Drafted: 2000, Round 6, Pick 199 Career: 10 seasons, 129 games Notes: Brady ranks among the best in the NFL ever, having assaulted the record books in his 10 years in the league en route to leading the Pats to three Super Bowl wins in four years and a perfect 2007 regular season. Active NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 23 8 Elway, John QB Broncos 1983 16 seasons Draft vote John Elway John Elway QB Drafted: 1983, Round 1, Pick 1 Career: 16 seasons, 234 games Notes: Elway's cannon arm and football savvy produced 51,475 passing yards and a remarkable 47 fourth-quarter comebacks. He capped his 16-year career by leading the Broncos to back-to-back Super Bowl victories. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 25 7 Marino, Dan QB Dolphins 1983 16 seasons Draft vote Dan Marino Dan Marino QB Drafted: 1983, Round 1, Pick 27 Career: 17 seasons, 242 games Notes: The Dolphins got the steal of the 1983 draft when Marino surprisingly fell to them at No. 27. By the time he retired following the 1999 season, the prolific Marino had put his name atop nearly every NFL passing record. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 33 - Luckman, Sid QB Bears 1939 17 seasons Draft vote Sid Luckman Sid Luckman QB Drafted: 1939, Round 1, Pick 2 Career: 12 seasons, 128 games Notes: The first successful T-formation quarterback in NFL history, Luckman led the Bears to four championships, including one in his MVP season of 1943. Luckman still owns most of the Bears passing records. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 46 30 Staubach, Roger QB Cowboys 1964 8 seasons Video Draft vote Roger Staubach Roger Staubach QB Drafted: 1964, Round 10, Pick 129 Career: 16 seasons, 131 games Notes: Staubach was a playmaker for the Cowboys, leading them to six NFC title games and a pair of Super Bowl triumphs in his nine years at the helm. Along the way, he passed for 22,700 yards and 153 touchdowns. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 50 22 Bradshaw, Terry QB Steelers 1970 13 seasons Draft vote Terry Bradshaw Terry Bradshaw QB Drafted: 1970, Round 1, Pick 1 Career: 14 seasons, 168 games Notes: The strong-armed Bradshaw displayed strong leadership in leading the Steelers to an unprecedented four Super Bowl titles in six years (1974-79). He was MVP of Super Bowl XIII and Super Bowl XIV. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 51 36 Starr, Bart QB Packers 1956 13 seasons Draft vote Bart Starr Bart Starr QB Drafted: 1956, Round 17, Pick 200 Career: 16 seasons, 196 games Notes: From 17th-rounder to the Hall of Fame, Starr didn't blossom into a star and legend until Vince Lombardi arrived. He guided the Pack to five NFL titles and was MVP of the two Super Bowls. He led the NFL in passing three times. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 80 25 Aikman, Troy QB Cowboys 1989 12 seasons Draft vote Troy Aikman Troy Aikman QB Drafted: 1989, Round 1, Pick 1 Career: 12 seasons, 165 games Notes: Aikman was thrown to the wolves as a rookie starter, but as he improved, so too did the Cowboys. Aikman was a steady leader of an explosive attack and he directed Dallas to three Super Bowl wins, earning SB XXVII MVP. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 81 13 Young, Steve QB 49ers 1984 16 seasons Draft vote Steve Young Steve Young QB Drafted: 1984, Round 1, Pick 1 Career: 16 seasons, 169 games Notes: Young led the NFL in passing a record-tying six times. His signature moment came in Super Bowl XXIX, when he passed for 6 touchdowns and was named the MVP of the 49ers' rout of the Chargers. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 83 - Van Brocklin, Norm QB Rams 1949 18 seasons Draft vote Norm Van Brocklin Norm Van Brocklin QB Drafted: 1949, Round 4, Pick 37 Career: 12 seasons, 140 games Notes: Despite sharing passing duties wih Bob Waterfield, Van Brocklin still topped the NFL in passing in 1950 and '52, and once again in 1954. After his trade to the Eagles in 1958, Van Brocklin led the team to the NFL title in 1960. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 90 27 Warner, Kurt QB Rams 1998 12 seasons Draft vote Kurt Warner Kurt Warner QB Undrafted Career: 12 seasons, 125 games Notes: Though undrafted out of Northern Iowa, Warner went on to pass for 32,344 yards and 208 TDs in a stellar career. He was a two-time NFL MVP, including 1999, when he led the Rams to victory in Super Bowl XXXIV. NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 91 50 Tarkenton, Fran QB Vikings 1961 18 seasons Draft vote Fran Tarkenton Fran Tarkenton QB Drafted: 1961, Round 3, Pick 29 Career: 18 seasons, 246 games Notes: Tarkenton's career got off to an exciting start with four TD passes in his first game. By the time he left after stints with the Vikings and Giants, he owned every major passing record, including 47,003 yards passing and 342 TDs. Hall of Famer NFL Rank Rank Name Position Team First Year Status Career Watch 100 42 Namath, Joe QB Jets 1965 9 seasons Video Joe Namath QB Drafted: 1965, Round 1, Pick 1 Career: 13 seasons, 140 games Notes: Namath is best remembered for the Super Bowl III upset. However, "Broadway Joe" was actually one of the game’s most prolific passers. He still holds most Jets records, and in 1967, became the first to pass for 4,000 yards. Hall of Famer
Brady has the best feet in nfl,nobody slides in the pocket like brady does.I hate the ****er but he is the best in the game today. This has got to be longest thread of the year.
I'm a Brady homer, but I'll chime in nonetheless. Staff Edit Let's see. Even if, in your really black-and-white world, Brady did have the greatest coach and greatest defense of all-time (and by the way, the Patriots have certainly had ups and downs on defense, overall very good, but nowhere near the dominance you make it seem like.) What then? What would Brady need to do to prove to a small-minded fool like you that he is one of the best of all-time. What if he won a higher rate than any other player? So he wins at a rate of .775. That's far and away the best winning % of all-time. Why does having a good defense and coaching devalue that incredible feat? Do you realize how difficult that percentage is to maintain? Do you realize that, even having the best defense in the league, most quarterbacks would not be able to win over 65% of the time? If any quarterback can do it, why hasn't anyone done it before? Montana winning pct isn't that close; Manning has not had as good D's as Brady, but you do know they've been in league's top-3 twice in the past five years, right? Roethlisberger's Steelers have consistently had a better defense than the Pats, as have the Ravens. That doesn't include 14-4 in the playoffs. Fact: Any "proof" that a quarterback (with a decent amount of starts) can top Brady's winning percentage is theory, and not fact (and doubtful at that.) Now let's move to statistics. For you to sit on your high horse and even suggest that Brady's stats aren't incredible just shows your bias. I'm not going to argue about Brady's supporting cast, and I'll even concede (for the sake of argument, although many would disagree) that coaching philosophy may make up for the talent gap that the Patriots have had at RB/WR for much of Brady's career. So, what makes a great quarterback, statistically? And do NOT use longevity stats, unless you want to argue that Vinny Testaverde is better than Joe Montana and Dave Winfield was better than Ted Williams since he had more hits. Staff Edit Assume each QB throws the ball 500 times during a season. Brady 318-500, 3700 yards, 28 TDs, 11 INTs Marino 297-500, 3500 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs Manning 325-500, 3800 yards, 25 TDs, 14 INTs Montana 315-500, 3700 yards, 26 TDs, 13 INTs Aikman 308-500, 3500 yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs Favre 310-500, 3550 yards, 25 TDs, 17 INTs So, let's recap. If you gave every one of these quarterbacks 500 attempts (assume it's a full season), Brady would only trail Manning in completions and yards, and lead the rest of them. However, over a full season, Brady would throw four less INTs than Manning. If you would trade a mere 7 completions and 100 yards for 4 interceptions, you obviously don't understand football. Rather than being just a "mistake-free", system guy, these stats show that Brady makes the fewest mistakes while still being as dangerous as anyone. So, if Brady's stats aren't impressive to you, then who is? I think the answer is obvious: nobody. Finally, Brady's 2.51 INT ratio is virtually untouched. Most Hall of Fame quarterbacks cannot attain a 2:1 ratio (Manning is close, but nowhere near 2.5). Brady has thrown fewer interceptions (103) than games he has won (110). That's not games he's played in; that's games he's won. Thank about that: if a quarterback has a four-interception game, they'd have to win their next four games without throwing another pick in any of them, just to keep up that pace. What's really ironic here is that you claim you can't use the "it" factor to show Brady's greatness, yet when hard, solid facts are put right in front of your nose, you use the "anti-it" factor, which is your own personal dislike for Brady, without being able to prove anything. What a hypocrite you are. Staff Edit
I'll be your huckleberry. Your research demonstrates that yes, Brady is a great QB. But it does not account for the change in the times from yesterday's NFL to today's NFL. And by that I mean pre 2005 playoffs and post. And your team was integral in the change. After Billy Polian cried about your DBs roughing up the Colts receivers the way the game has been officiated has never been the same. A DB can't even look at a receiver cross eyed without drawing a penalty. And while Tom Brady has always been a very good QB, he didn't start putting up elite numbers until after that season. And since then other QBs have been racking up amazing stats, and it's no coincidence that you're seeing more and more 4,000 yard passers every season. Because of this, I'll always say Dan Marino > Tom Brady. He was putting up elite numbers when DBs were allowed to mug wide receivers. Imagine what he would do today. There was a great article written about this on ESPN when Brady had his best season. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs07/columns/story?columnist=chadiha_jeff&id=3186324
I agree that numbers are inflated, but I left off all of the Brady's contemporaries, except for Manning, since there's really no argument there. The point is, how can argue that Brady doesn't have some of the best stats ever? In terms of Marino, well, I'm not coming to the Dolphins message board to put down their best player ever, just to promote ours. Growing up, Marino was one of my favorite players (partly because we shared the same nickname "Dan the Man"), and I'll always be in awe of his play. I would take Brady over Marino in terms of his effectiveness and results, but I can't argue that in terms of throwing the ball into impossible coverages and having some of the best natural gifts, I'm not sure anyone compares to Marino. The media tries to make Manning like Marino, but the truth is there is really not much of a comparison. Marino was phenomenal at making something out of nothing and had a cannon for an arm; the guys today are all about pre-snap reads and hanging in the pocket. I agree that today, quarterbacks and receivers are too coddled. But this is also like saying the 1970s Steelers defenses would get run over by modern teams and Bob Cousy would get owned by Allen Iverson. Both of these things are true, but these are inevitable facts.
Didn't you say Welker's/Brady's career was going to be over without Moss? This 34-4 season by Tom should shock your "system"
Has a QB ever put up the numbers Brady has the past 4 years, I think not. 41-7 as a starter, 85.4 winning %... 1090 comp, 1630 att, 12,981 yards, 112 TD passes, 25 int, 107.5 QB rating Also includes... Record 50 TD passes in single season 16-0 record in regular season (best ever) #2 All-time single season QB rating (117.2, behind Manning 121.1) #7 All-time single season QB rating (currently...at 109.8) Oh yeah, he did all this while suffering a torn ACL and last year in which his mechanics were off as he recovered from knee surgery.
Love you man, but... the **** outta here with this weak ****. There IS NO QUARTERBACK IN THE NFL TODAY WHO CAN MATCH UP WITH MARINO, ELWAY AND KELLY; not to mention guys who came before them. Not even Payton Manning.
Though I edge out Brady overall above Marino, I do agree with you that one cannot use statistics b/c the NFL has changed significantly. Of particular significance is that interceptions - while wanting to avoid such in Marino's day - are far more of a premium in avoiding in today's NFL. They were tolerated more 20 years ago from a QB who put up good offensive #'s. Even more so in the 50's and 60's. Rule changes have also made a difference. Statistics over eras don't work.
As pure "Passers" or "throwers" I think you are correct. It's a different game and just not the "gunslinger" era of the 80's. But, I'd put those three ahead of Montana as pure throwers - though not ahead of him as a QB; and no historical list from NFL pundits puts them ahead of him. But, ultimately, it's in the eye of the beholder.
Please don't misquote me. This wasn't even close to what I said. Never said Brady's career would be over. NEVER. And I only said Welker would be exposed as a GOOD not GREAT WR. And for some time after Moss left, Welker struggled for at least 4 or 5 games.
Former Miami resident, long time NFL fan (attended my first NFL game in 1960, seeing the last Eagles NFL Championship team (VanBrocklin, Bednarik et al) play), current NYC resident and student of the history and stats of the NFL, registering and posting for the first time. Thanks for including me in your discussions! Debates about QB's are eternal; taking a view on the relative value of stats and championships in evaluating a QB is a matter of much disagreement, so I won't try to resolve that one! My personal view, subject to said disagreement, is that since the NFL Quarterback position is the single most important position in team sports (even MLB teams have five starting pitchers), it is impossible to evaluate a QB in isolation from the performance of his team. But, that's a different subject from the one that I wish to address in this post. I will, however, comment on PFR's AV metric. First of all, PFR plays a very valuable role in assembling NFL stats; I probably refer to it every day. The AV metric is, however, in my opinion, seriously flawed when it comes to evaluating QB's. I have recreated the model on my own computer (they give you all the information you need to do so) and I am testing it now, getting input from PFR as I work. While I am only partially into my analysis, three things jump out at you immediately when you look at their evaluation of the Quarterback. First and foremost, the developers of the AV model are themselves quite candid when it comes to their own admission that they brought their own preconception of the "right" and "wrong" answers to the evaluation of skill position players. In their own words, from the PFR Web Page: "I'm not necessarily opposed to tweaking the metric until it gives us results we're happy with......so it's OK to cook the books a little bit until they do tell us what we already know...while I do think we need some sort of theory to get us started in certain areas, I won't be too apologetic about making some arbitrary changes if a strict application of the theory leads us to 'wrong' answers." It's no accident that the model ends up with HOF players in prominent positions because it relies on the core statistics of production for its results. However, its ability to distinguish among these players is a function of the developers' own view of what the "right" and "wrong" answers are. Two, the model dramatically favors a QB whose team has a relatively weak running game. Since you propound the model so strongly, I assume you are familiar with its algorithims. So, for example, last season the model subtracted 14.4, 14.9 and 13.5 points from the Skill Position points for the Vikings, Saints and Patriots respectively (their running games produced 31.6%, 32.6% and 30.5% of those teams offenses), leaving fewer points for the QB position. The Colts' running game, on the other hand, only produced 21.9% of the team's offense, so only 9.4 points were subtracted to arrive at that team's QB Position points. At the same time, each of those four offenses was, in itself, prodigious, producing 6,461 yards (Saints), 6,074 yards (Vikings), 6,357 yards (Patriots) and 5,899 yards (Colts); the league average was 5,362 yards. But, the passing yardage for the QB's on those teams was virtually the same: Manning 4,500, Brady 4,398, Brees 4,388 and Favre 4,202, or a difference of 18.6 yards per game between the top and "bottom" performers on that list. So, a QB with weak run support who puts up a lot of yards (even though he puts up relatively the same yards as others) is able to get a higher score. In other words, his absolute performance is no better than others', but his score is higher. When you compound this over many years, he will end up with a far higher score, while his performance on the field will not necessarily be better. The third major flaw in the QB evaluation metric is that it looks only at "Yards per Attempt" and fails to take into account "Yards after Catch" when it completes its evaluation of the QB. Why is this important? In many cases, teams now use the short pass over the middle or in the flat as an addendum to their running games and as a tool to neutralize the Blitz. These are not "easy" passes, but rather require the ability to systematically pick apart a defense by finding open passing lanes eight to ten yards away in the midst of LB's and Corners. So, an offense that does not focus on stretching the field with its WR's, but rather focuses on moving the ball down the field with a combination of runs and passes will have its QB penalized. In addition, a QB who does not have WR's who are good for two or three 30 or 40 yard gainers per game will have a lower YPA, but will still be adding considerable "Value" to his team.
What Otto Graham managed to do in an era that was not nearly as passing friendly as today was phenomenal. In a three yards and a cloud of dust era, he shone as a quarterback. A great passer, leader and winner back when QB's were fair game for raping and receivers got mugged every play. I'd say he edges Brady. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_Graham But Brady is certainly fair discussion as GOAT. I wouldn't say he is not close. I just take into account that it's a very passer friendly league now.
Guys, this is a silly argument. Brady is the best now and when he retires he will probably be the best ever. I watched some of those Americas Game shows on the NFL network over the holidays and Brady was damn good in those SB wins. Call a spade a spade, he is the best and especially at home where he can audible at will. I was very young when Danny was in his prime, but I recall him throwing to Clayton and Duper. However, this league is about SBs and Danny had none, he CANNOT be the best ever because of that. Yes, Dilfer had one and with one ~ well those can be flukish. Three are not, going 16-0 is not, throwing 50 TDs in a season is not and setting a record for most passes without an INT is not. Yesterday he looked sick and he did not have Hernandez, Welker or Branch. Are you KIDDING ME!?!?!!?! Give the man his props.
I like my 2 cents in on this debate... If I wanted the best QB right now I would choose Peyton... If I wanted the best game manager, there is no one currently that I would want more than Brady... For Payton to succeed, you need to give him his weapons, a prolific passsing Offense... we have seen his troubles this year... Brady just need adequate players to succeed...
I don't think one can ever discount Dan for not winning a SB. You have to understand how bad the defense was in his era. Very little running game (but then, the Pats have never had a stellar running game - though the passing attack in this league is much enhanced these days). However, the Dolphins had a horrific D that was constantly exposed when Dan was in his prime. This put great pressure on Dan to put up 30-40 points to win. Even with that, they often lost. Those who saw that era will well remember 51-45 (loss to the Jets - Dan was unbelievable that game; 30 of 50, 448 yds and 6 TDs. How can you do that, put up 45 points and lose?). And, in 1990, Marino put up 34 points in the AFC playoff game at Buffalo - in terrible winter weather, and they lost 44-34. Miami was constantly having to come behind in that game (down by scores of 20-3 and 27-10) - actually pulled within 30-27 at one point in the 4th quarter. And, that was without doubt the best of the Bills teams of that era - the one team that should have won a SB (losing on Norwood's miss). There's no way one can put games like that on Marino. That's why knocking down a QB for not winning SB's is simply a bad argument. That said, credit does have to be given to QB's - not just for winning SB's, but for performing great in tight games in SB's and winning. So, Brady does get credit for some great play in the clutch. But, don't knock Dan down for not winning a SB.
No knocking him just saying he cannot be the greatest because he never won and its a SB league? Just my opinion. It is sad that he only got one shot at a SB but I do recall (I was very little) us losing to NE (the year the Bears spanked them). We should have gone to the SB that year. Brady has three and played in tough weather conditions (unlike Manning). IDK...he is probably #3 behind Elway and Montana?
Just a lurking Pats fan doing my best to contribute without trolling http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/24180/jim-kelly-puts-tom-brady-in-his-top-three
