http://football.about.com/od/nfldrafthistory/a/2007draftresult.htm The Good: Calvin Johnson Joe Thomas Adrian Peterson Pat Willis The Medicore: LaRon Landry..not a bad player, not a great one Levi Brown..solid, if unspectacular The Ugly: JaMarcus Russel Amobi Okoye Jamal Anderson Ted Ginn Marshawn Lynch Gaines Adams Not to pick on Gaines Adams (R.I.P), he was traded during the season, the #4 overall went for a #2 draft pick, Russell was released, Ginn Traded, Anderson is a perennial disappointment in Atlanta, ditto Amobi Okoye, Marshawn Lynch made a pro bowl, but has disappeared and was outperformed by a fmr AFL "HoF" player. What say you?
Zach..Thomas. Keeping those aged, but beloved Vets on the roster as Starters comes at a price BK. In 06, the Defense was great, we had brought in Capers to replace lil nicky, the thinking was the offense needed more firepower due to losing 5 games or so by 2 pts or less in 06..and the D was top 10...
That's not quite accurate... You can draft someone's replacement without getting rid of them.... Drafting Willis didn't mean we had to cut Zach. Willis could taken Crowders spot until we were ready to let Zach go
check out rd #2: There is a selection of busts, Pro Bowlers, and decent players on that list: -Alan Branch..the ugly -Tony Ugoh..went ugly Fun stuff. If I've learned anything from looking at that list it is Draft choices are not the precious pearls they are made out to be prior to the draft..but that doesn't mean you torch them ala Washington, but DO keep some perspective on their real world value.
nope we had a 2 point loss to Houston two 3 point losses to the jets a 5 point loss at indy all the other losses were 10 or more in '06 regardless and back on topic i was livid when we didn't draft willis zach had taken a beating and delivered more than a few for ten years at the time i always preach young players replacing the older players this is another example
You probably have the most interesting grammar skills I have ever seen (no offense) but you often make a lot of sense, to me at least. I agree with your thoughts here.
Okay..3 games: Texans by 2 Jets by 3 Jets by 3 twice The "D" ranked 5th in points allowed, the offense 29th, which is 'why" Ted Ginn was selected #9 and Cam Cameron was hired and Joey Porter was brought in to facilitate the switch the thoroughly crappy in Miami 3-4 defense. But no matter, Zach T was coming off of a 100 tackle season and pro bowl birth..he was 33.. I'm beginning to feel you a bit about youth KillahP, however, to rely solely on youth is a mistake, and a large one, they don't know how to win games and imho fans, the Organization, and Teammates should not suffer so "Joe Rookie can learn and be good 2 yrs from now". Imho, that is bull****.
first off since we are talking about our 2007 draft lets just get it out of the way and say it was clown shoes.... fair enough cam wanted to build the offense mueller bought it everyone was mad when we didn't take quinn it should have been patrick willis three years later he would still be starting here the zach issue is a slippery slope i get it honestly and unfortunately this team burned a ton of years searching for a qb and an offensive identity and let players get old on defense you dont see that?
Oh sure, there were reasons why Lil nicky fled for Alabama, he was no dummy, he knew what was coming in 2007. Willis should not have been the pick, not logically, if anything a replacement for Truck Taylor should have been taken, we had Crowder who back then appeared to be up and coming, and Zach's replacement, we had Zach, and we added Joey Porter, Willis would not have fit in. Quinn would have made strategic sense, arguably a Cb. But anywho, the larger point is, early draft picks, even in 2007, are overvalued, which is why Irish moved away from the #12 this year. Back then though, Dolphins' GM's were more figureheads, Lil Nicky ran the personnel dept.
and yet here we are three years later and quinn is a first round pick who was traded for a FB. ginn is elsewhere. zach is outta the league. porter don't matter. crowder didn't develop into anything special at all and willis is a great player in this league. saban is not the debate but he screwed up giving a two for culpepper. he ran away cause he blew it. college coach bro. lets save the move back in this years draft for another thread
I think Saban can be a coach/coordinator in this league but he can't be have control of everything. If you tell him that he's a coach only, I think he can do very well.
He would never accept that kind of deal though. He is an all or nothing guy. He is a perfect personality for a college head coach, a disaster for the NFL. I am very interested to see how Carroll does in Seattle over the next few seasons. On topic though, I agree Pads. Draft picks are way overvalued, and the whole thing just often seems to be a massive crapshoot.
I do have to wonder if his lack of character would be an issue though Alen, the man is intelligent, but not mentally tough, when the pressure is on that is when those flaws appear. Everything is all good until they roll the tape "I am not accepting the Job at Alabama" [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7Ak2u17Neg"]YouTube- Coaches Telling Lies[/ame] "In three years he will be a Elite, Top 5 Qb in this league" [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZubYpplmzVk"]YouTube- JaMarcus Russell NFL Draft[/ame] All well and fine, now what happens when there is accountability?
i was in the colts building on 12-31 2006 saban was running away not hard to see he was leaving we kicked field goals that day and lost 27-22 it was over
Interesting, now let us examine the 2 AFCE teams that made the playoffs in 09: -Bryan Thomas/Calvin Pace...31/30 -Tully Banta Cain/Adalius Thomas 29/33
I think he's mentally tough. I think he's fine really, as long as he isn't doing everything. Yes, he is an all or nothing guy, I won't argue that. He has a committee at Alabama that keeps tabs on what underclassmen and upperclassmen on the team do every day. I think Carroll could do fine if he allows John Schneider to handle player personnel. I don't think draft picks are overvalued. You build the core of your roster through the draft and when you have very talented draft classes, such as this year and next years, you are going to value them quite a bit. Regarding the draft being a crapshoot, I hate using that label because it's only a crapshoot if you don't do your job. It's not a crapshoot to the teams that draft well because they know how to evaluate talent, they know how to gauge intangibles and it's one of the reasons they are successful every year. Look at Indianapolis for example. It's a crapshoot when you start drafting athletes that are questionable characters instead of productive football players that work hard and have talent to build on.
The guy from About.com writes that he is surprised we drafted Ginn when "Brady Quinn, Amobi Okoye, and Leon Hall were still on the board." He doesn't even mention Darrelle Revis or Patrick Willis. This is the perfect example of why a GM needs to approach the draft differently than a fan. A fan wants to plug holes and improve the team immediately. A GM needs to take the best player available so the team can have long-term success.
Sorry if this comes as arguing just to argue, which is not my goal, but a GM doesn't necessarily have to take the BPA. Need over BPA works as well, as you probably know.
Well, the interesting thing about the 07 draft is, the Vikings did go BPA and drafted Adrian Peterson when Chester Taylor had a solid 2007 season. The problem, from my pov is, "need" assumes that a player who also fills that need cannot be found later in the draft, BPA is BPA, sometimes perhaps the logic of "need' overpowers the reality out on the field. The Bucs could have easily taken Peterson at #4, and Woodley in rd #2, they had Cadillac but his injury issues had cropped up at that point in time. The 2007 draft is a fascinating study in both approaches and possibly the most talented in the last 4, with 2010 coming close imho.
Need over BPA doesn't necessarily mean that you're taking a lesser talent IMO. In my opinion, there is two categories; pure talent and scheme talent. Both should apply in the first round. You need to look at both of them when drafting and find a common ground between them two so you can stack your board to how the player fits your team. Using the aforementioned Lamar Woodley as an example, I wouldn't take him if he didn't fit my scheme despite his talent. Why would I take a highly talented player and ask him to do things that don't play to his strength and won't help him realize his full potential? I'm not going to ask an undersized end to play five technique in my true defense when he's better suited in a stand up role and that's basically what Tampa would have done had they selected him. However, I might select another player that is a better fit for me and will put him in position to realize his talent but he may not have as high of a grade on San Diego's (for example) board as he does on mine. It's easy to point out which player X team should have taken but what's so often ignored is how does that player fit schematically. Lamar Woodley did not and does not fit their scheme IMO. As for Carnell Williams vs Adrian Peterson, once you get an injured tailback, you're not going to select another one that had a questionable injury. Also, if Williams didn't get injured, I would bet money that he would be a thirteen hundred yard back on a yearly basis. He had so much talent. His burst, vision, explosiveness, power and physicality was a helluva blend.
Disagree, what drafting for "need" does is cause over valuation of players based on the perception that they are the only player who will work in a given situation, it basically cancels out the developmental process in favor of taking a lesser player because they fit a "need". You take him because the Staff believes he will fit the role that they have in mind for him, Woodley v Adams is a no brainer in 2010, in 2007 Adams was assumed to be suited to Tampa's needs...no development needed. And that is where draft blunders happen, Jake Long+Chad Henne vs Matt Ryan is a perfect example of the differences between a vision for a player(s) and just taking the "need" position. Pundits despise Front Offices with vision, which is why some like John Clayton still bang on the Dolphins for taking Jake Long over Matt Ryan and it doesn't matter that both Long and Henne have worked out for the Dolphins. There is a reason why it is easy to point out Alen, because it was obvious at the time but very few people saw the truth of the matter, Caddy has went on to have more injuries, AP led the league in rushing and Gaines Adams had one mediocre season before being traded to the Bears.
It doesn't cancel out player development. Drafting a player that fits your scheme over a player that does not fit your scheme does not "cancel out" your player development. In both circumstances, you have to develop the player. Drafting a player that fits your scheme is a shorter process in player development. Again, you're overlooking scheme. . Both were need positions. Easy to point out doesn't make it right. Obvious at the time, my rear end man. Speaking from hindsight is easy but you want to sit in the war room and you grade these players and you debate vs the rest of the scouting team and then say its easy? No way. You can't predict this stuff.
Disagree, this stuff is somewhat easy to predict. Put it this way, how many outright 1st round "Busts" has Bill Parcells drafted since leaving the Giants? The only one who comes to mind is Bobby Carpenter..not bad for a 17yr track record..
Lol. Don't take this the wrong way, please don't, but do you honestly think this is easy to predict? Really? How would you explain all the NFL Scouts, GM's and coaches who have lost their jobs because of mistakes in drafting and acquiring players?
Simply by not establishing the foundation that Parcell's demands: Left tackle, QB, Shut Down Cb, Passrusher, Dominant Wr, once a team has those, the rest is gravy. Jerruh Jones is STILL milking what Parcell's and Irish did in Dallas: LT..Doug Free Cb..Terrence Newman Wr Austin Miles Qb Tony Romo Passrusher Demarcus Ware Departing from that foundation will and should cause Scouts and GM's to be fired as a team requires a foundation then additions, not additions then a foundation. Put it this way Alen, to reverse your question a bit, "why" do you suppose Ireland brought over as many scouts as he could who had a history of working with Pracells and himself? Put it this way Alen, on the Phins, we have Big Jake, now look who is behind him..Andrew Gardner, Lydon Murtha, Nate Garner, they have tripled down on the one position that is required for success..Left Tackle..the same position that earned scorn for selecting at #1 overall instead of a 'franchise Qb".
That's not only Parcells "demands", that's everyones wishes. Not easy to draft and even the most successful teams don't have all of those. Again, Indianapolis is an example. They don't have an exceptional blindside protector nor do they have a shut down cornerback. That foundation is shared by just about every NFL team. Drafting the talent is not easy, which is why NFL personnel struggle. Familiarity.
Peyton Manning's Strength is enough to overcome those weaknesses, and the Colts did try Tony Ugoh at LT and won a SB with him. And the Tampa Two doesn't require a shutdown corner, but they do need a Dominant Safety...enter Bob Sanders... Keep in mind, there is a difference between "shared" and "take this seriously". The only one of the "Five Musts" that Tuna skimped on was Qb, and that was due to Pennington's play in 08, even then they hedged the bet with..Chad Henne, they have added: -Jake Long -Brandon Marshall -Cameron Wake -Vontae Davis -Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, toss in Thiggy and White, a quadruple down on the Qb position They did not pay lip service to those "5 Musts", they spent the #1 overall, 2 #2's and 50 million, the #25, and the #56, the #43, a 5th, and lucked into Pennington.and took advantage of the Institution of the NFL's bias against CFLers, Bill Polian had Wake on the radar, got burned, and added the 09 CFL DPOY John Chick in an attempt to land their own "Cam Wake". If one wishes to know the GM/Front Office that are good, vs the ones that are bad, merely look at who worked Wake out in 09..anyone could have signed him for the cost of a 3rd rd draft pick...and yet. Perhaps, but said another way, they know Talent and they know what Tuna/Irish look for in obscure players...
Tony Ugoh was not on the team in the 2006 season. That doesn't only apply to the Tampa 2, that applies to every team. What? Again, acquiring and drafting players is not easy. This management has had success, yes, but still not easy. Let's not use Cameron Wake here, he's no HOFer. Besides that, seventeen teams worked out Wake. No word on all 17 teams.
And he did not work out in the long run, whether he played in 06 or not, but what was the Colt's next move? A shutdown Cb in the Tampa Two? Really? How: "shared"? Not really, look at the teams that refuse to deal with the "5 Musts" you will find there is lip service, not action, in acquiring the "5 Musts" even when the perfect opportunity presented itself to acquire at least one piece in every draft. Hmm, I have the impression that perhaps one did not really consider that Alen, NFL FA's happens..every 5 yrs, or did, a team that simply took one of the 5 musts every year in the first round would have what they needed if they were halfway competent, like the Bengals, yet year after year there are busts. As Irish has stated "you have to take players who fit what you do" ie, the 5 Musts have to be a fit for the scheme, but then again, unless dummy trades are made the 5 musts can be acquired via sheer strength of numbers, 7 picks a year, 5 years, 35 picks, you only need to hit on 14% to find the 5 Musts..yet some teams dither into areas other than the 5.. Massively disagree, Cam Wake is the perfect example of a short cut to the 5 "Must haves" yet the NFL being what it is, only 1 of the 17 teams bothered to offer in a mid 3rd round money contract for him. Now I've studied Cam Wake from his time as Derek Wake, and you'd be shocked at the teams that passed on him, even as a practice squad player. Point being, Scouts and GM's have to have that eye for talent that fits into their scheme, and be willing to take calculated risks...as long as the upside is high enough and the effort is designed to fill Parcell's 5 "must haves", in that sense Wake was a no brainer, for the rest of the NFL...they simply could not see it... That is what seperates the Consistent Winners from the shoulda coulda woulda's..and it is certainly not that hard to find other players similar to Wake, yet it takes be wlling to gamble where others aren't willing. Which is why I'm psyched about Grice Mullen...I "know" what he is.
They have moved around Charlie Johnson and Ugoh and haven't won the SB since Tarik Glenn retired. Remember Ronde Barber? I do too. Yes, all teams want quality players at those positions. Again, its a schematic fit that you're ignoring. There may be talent available in the draft but if it's not good enough for my scheme, I'm not going to draft him. Remember when many wanted Clint Sintim or an OLB in the 2009 Draft but Ireland said he was never impressed with the OLB group or something along those lines? Is our goal to be competent or to be champions? That's what I said, right? Because there are more than five positions. You don't know that. I'm not really shocked. Didn't Wake himself say he was not a hard worker at one point? Do you just argue for the hell of it? Honestly? Do you? Because I made three or four posts making the same damn argument and you argued the points, yet here you are saying basically the same damn thing? I think this is the third time you've done this in a conversation between us two. Just let me know and I'll stop wasting my time. I don't mean to show disrespect but its so frustrating to communicate with you. I don't know how you came to that point. "Rest of the NFL" ? Sixteen other teams showed interest.
They did however, "make it" to the SB. I freely admit, I have a intellectual mancrush on Bill Polian, that man is a Player Personnel Genius, seriously, he is the one guy who consistently drafts late, and wins every year, and finds talent with high upsides...at a low cost. Ronde and who else? Nathan Vasher? And the offense needed upgrading, Irish can say what he said, however we had JP and JT and Roth heading into 2009, if anything adding a OLB who would not play would have made no sense, however that is a good time to point out that a BPA approach would have landed a OLB even though the need was unforseen..at the time of the Draft.. I've never seen incompetent champions in the NFL, one has to come, then the titles come. Not sure, this was a sort of BPA v Need discussion, Irish's statement was a general one made the day before the 09 KY Derby. 5 that have to manned by as much quality as possible though, a sort of "5 great players then we need 19 pretty good ones" Odd, so you know what I know vis a vis Cameron Wake? Love ya young buck, but doubt that, for example, he worked out for the Bucs in 05... Not as far as I've heard, unless he said it in a roundabout way "I can party later, I can be with friends later' per the CFL Tonight special. Hmm, odd, Alen, I enjoy reading your thoughts very much, however one lacks a touch of the ability to differentiate, not trying to slam ya Bro, but they are not the same thing. The idea behind this discussion is the 07 draft, and BPA v Need, and the incompetence of most NFL Front Offices. To illustrate please allow me to expound: "GM's and Scouts have to have the eye for talent that fits the scheme (and can be found for the lowest possible acquisition costs while still filling the 5 Must Haves)" that is how a Franchise is rebuilt quickly... A thought that should have been mutual, if I was not clear about that allow me to apologize. I don't know how you came to that point. "Rest of the NFL" ? Sixteen other teams showed interest.[/QUOTE]
They didn't win it. You asked about a shut down corner and I gave you one. We still needed an OLB IMO. You said halfway competent, right? Is that the goal or is the goal to be a champion? Scheme plays a factor and was part of the discussion. You want that at every position though. I don't know everything you know about Wake but I'm confident when I say you don't know the contract details that were offered to him. I could be off on it. I seem to recall him or someone else saying he didn't work hard enough. Maybe I'm misunderstanding you here because you can still draft need over BPA early and fill your "must haves".
I'm not sure that is desirable or possible Alen, when the Phins sent 9 guys to the pro bowl, when it meant something, we still were a 10-6 team, sorta like the modern version of the late 90's early 00's Dolphins the San Diego Chargers. Somewhat true, I do "know" the Dolphins were not neccessarily the high bidder for his services, I also know Wake worked out for the Broncos at the end of the 2008 season after the 08 CFL season, and Shanahan said "no thanks" to even a practice squad contract for him, which would have been 40k or so if he were signed until the end of the Broncos season. Interestingly enough, Dimitri Tsoumpas the RG was a semi hot commodity that Irish snapped up after he made 4 visits to other teams. The most negative thing I've read about him was Joe Paterno making him a team captain in an effort to "wake him up, that guy has all time type ability" Possible, not saying it isn't, ideally a team would have ten needs and the first ten draft picks to fill them. To me, the team that has done an outstanding job of filling, or trying to fill the "5 must haves" is the Raiders: Two Left Tackle prospects, 3 Db prospects, added J Campbell and traded for Kam Wimbley. The5: LT..Veldeheer/Campbell Cb..Nmadi Qb Jason Campbell Prusher Kameron Wimbley, who is surprisingly productive if one looks Dominant Wr...Bey, Ford, Murphy etc Al Davis may have had a moment of clarity. Now here is an interesting question, "if" the Raiders were all about "Just Win Baby" then why pass on Tony Washington? Would he be BPA, Need, or Other? Imho he is no character risk, no more so than a prospect who had a DUI or something <cough> Sergio Kindle <cough>
That is a good point about scheme. However I would think that most teams pair down their board to only players that fit their scheme. So let's assume you've narrowed down the list and you have a huge need at quarterback. In 2002 the Detroit Lions drafted Joey Harrington. They passed on Bryant McKinnie as well as Dwight Freeney, Albert Haynesworth, and Ed Reed. Now I obviously don't know how they stacked their board but for argument's sake let's say they had McKinnie rated higher than Harrington but took the QB because they desperately needed one and he fit their scheme. They would have been far better off with McKinnie. Let's take it even further with the Lions. 2002 - OT Bryant McKinnie 2003 - WR Andre Johnson 2004 - QB Ben Roethlisbeger 2005 - DE/OLB DeMarcus Ware 2006 - DT Haloti Ngata 2007 - WR Calvin Johnson (Hey they got one right!) 2008 - RB Chris Johnson That is a hell of team right there. I don't care what your scheme is if you cannot win with those guys then something is wrong. Obviously we don't know if they had any of those players rated higher then they ones they drafted. However the benefit of hindsight allows us to determine BPA. With that knowledge we can clearly see that the Lions would be a much much better team if they had drafted the best player available. Does that make sense?
You make it sound like they overhauled the scouting dept. They brought over 1 scout from Dallas. Mike Murphy. They brought over an Assistant Director of Player Personnel from Dallas. Brian Gaine. There was one holdover scout, Ron Brockington, who worked with Parcells with the Jets. That he was already on the staff was a coincidence. So, somehow they are making it work with many of the same scouts who were here back to Wanny and JJ. Anthony Hunt, Adam Engroff, Ron Labadie, Chris Grier. Hunt and Labadie were hired under Shula for that matter. There has been nothing wrong with the scouting. It was the person or persons making the final choices on the players to draft. And, no matter which theory you subscribe to, hard line always BPA, or best player who fits your scheme and needs, the person choosing still has to make the right choice. To say it is easy to do that, is downright laughable. If it was as easy as you think it is, there would be no first round busts. Maybe you could offer your services to some lucky NFL team, so they would never have any first round busts in the future.
It is a lot easier to pick the right players when using 20/20 hindsight. But to make the right choices when under the gun is not so easy. There are some GMs who are pretty gifted in that regard. We have one now. Then some like Wanny, were completely hopeless. A lot of good scouting effort went for naught when Wanny got to have final say on who the pick would be. Our college scouting dept is comprised of 8 men. The director, Chris Grier, and 7 scouts. Some National and some Regional. Would you believe that of those 8, 4 were working for the Dolphins under Wanny? So, how is it, now they are good scouts, and before they weren't? Answer: They were always good scouts. It was just before they worked under a pathetic wretched excuse for a GM in Wanny. He should have stuck with making porn flix under his stage name, Harry Reems. He sure reamed over the Dolphins talent base with his ineptitude. A lot of teams, not just the Lions, passed on some of those players. You could probably do the same kind of list for many if not most other teams, including Miami.
