Well, thankfully there has been no reason for me to put together any hurricane threads so far this year. The La Nina conditions in the Pacific created a high wind shear condition that has suppressed most Atlantic development that had a chance to threaten the US. There have however, been some spectacular Super Typhoons in the western Pacific, and the Philippines have been ravaged.. and they may be getting it again. All the images and most of the information comes from various blogs by Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground. Those of you familiar with my weather stuff know that I hold Jeff Masters in VERY high regard and trust his hurricane forecasts. There is something for everyone there if you need to know whats happening in the weather, please use the links and give them some traffic if you have any questions about weather. I've subscribed there for years and it is my next favorite site after this one. The photo gallery there is the finest I have ever perused.. over a million images to look at. The Western Pacific The Philippines have been struck or affected by 13 tropical storms this year. Typhoon Ketsana, which was a tropical storm when it crossed the Philippines dumped a 42 year record rain on Manila, killing hundreds. Here are the rainfall totals and storm track; Some flooding there.. There are more of them on the right at YouTube if you are interested; [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHTYKwI7qZg"]YouTube - Philippine Flood floats cars away: Typhoon Ondoy UERMMC , September 26, 2009[/ame] A week or so later Typhoon Parma crossed the northern end of the island and then turned and passed over it two more times before departing for Vietnam where it took more victims. More than 350 thousand were made homeless in Vietnam. Here is Parma about to return and make hit number two on the left. That is super typhoon Melor on the right, which hit Japan, then crossed the Pacific and gave northern Cali some much needed rain and some gale force winds last week. Visible satellite; Flooding, landslides, and wrecked infrastructure are still a concern and there is a good chance that by Thursday morning super typhoon Lupit will be upon them. With soaked soil, flooded rivers and overloaded infrastructure this could be another disaster. Here is the current 5 day forecast for super typhoon Lupit. The Eastern Pacific Of interest in the Pacific next is super hurricane Rick. It went from a tropical depression to a 180+mph monster in just three days. This morning, it was 180+ with gusts to 225 mph. This is the equivalent of a strong F-3 tornado 40+ miles across gusting into F-4 numbers. Super Hurricane Rick the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in Eastern Pacific Posted by: JeffMasters, 11:27 AM EDT on October 18, 2009 Visible satellite.. what a beautiful storm! Figure 1.Hurricane Rick at peak intensity on Sunday morning, October 18, 2009: 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb. IR sat loop from yesterday The five day forecast map... this will be "I think" the third hurricane to hit this portion of the Baja Peninsula this year The Caribbean There is a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean that has some forecasters nervous. There is a narrow window of favorable conditions for this system to strengthen. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF was the most accurate modeler last year and has had 6-7 consecutive runs now that has this disturbance strengthening. It is NOT a given, just something to watch. Some of the other models are starting to pick this up so I thought it would be an excuse to make at least one of these hurricane threads and try and earn my keep. Here is what Dr. Masters has to say; Here is the area that is forecast to develop starting on the 23rd +- This is a link to the current model run of the ECMWF. This is a live link and will change as the model adjusts. When I started working on this thread, the model had this storm heading into Naples, it has now shifted west into the Gulf of Mexico. Model run Here is a still of the model forecast point for Wednesday October 28 2009 Here is the historic accumulation of storm tracks from this time of year; Timing is everything.. this time of year cold fronts pushing down are what causes the eastward turns of these storms. If one is early, south Florida is the target, late, and it could be the panhandle.
Update 10 19 2009; Super Typhoon Lupit Overnight a ridge of high pressure began building over Lupit pushing it on it's way to the Philippines. The danger has increased for the Island Nation because the forecast track has moved south, and all the major models have come into agreement. More of the storm will now traverse the island when it arrives on Thursday. Typhoon Lupit a potential major disaster for the Philippines October 18, 2009 Lupit. This was taken yesterday, but it is the same dawn as we had this morning in the US. This typhoon is going to be devastating, the Filipino people will need help. Hurricane Rick Overnight, dry air and wind shear have attacked the eyewall causing Rick to lose strength and this trend should continue. Shear is forecast to strengthen and Rick is moving into cooler water. Yesterday the forecast had it arriving as a cat 2.. that has dropped to a cat 1.. much better, the Baja has been battered this year. Dr. Masters says Southern Texas may see some rain from the remnants Sat-Sun upcoming. Western Caribbean The image in the first post is now from this morning.. the other link broke so I replaced it. Wind shears of 10-30 knots are expected to drop starting Saturday and the window of opportunity I spoke of will begin. The models that see development are split between stalling near Nicaragua and drifting north towards Cuba and Florida as the ECMWF is showing. This is the10 19 2009 ECMWF 12ut model run +240 hours out... next Thursday.
