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Tua 2nd most effective deep passer in 2022

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by FinFaninBuffalo, Jun 2, 2023.

  1. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Can he flick a ball 60 yards off his back foot though? Didn't think so.
     
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  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tua is a very very talented Qb..

    Not the biggest or the fastest, not the strongest arm, but one of the most intricately talented qbs in the league
     
  3. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    Geno Smith is #1, that's how you know this is a great and meaningful stat.
     
  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Stats don't care about your feelings. It is an objective look at how effective QBs were throwing passes with 20+ air yards. They used all widely used and highly regarded stats such as passer rating, completion %, CPOE, and TD/INT ratio.

    I notice you didn't mention that Josh Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, and Hurts were also on the list.

    The fact is that Geno Smith had a great year throwing deep passes and a very good year overall. Smith finished the year 5th in passer rating, 6th in QBR, 1st in completion %, 8th in yards, 7th in TD %, 11th in INT %, and 8th in YPA. The fact that you would attempt to dismiss Tua and this stat because Geno Smith finished 1st just displays your ignorance. The fact that he hadn't performed at that level before has no impact on what he did last season.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2023
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  5. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Geno Smith has a nearly three to one Touchdown to Interception ratio with a near 70% completion ratio, so him being number one is far from implausible.
     
  6. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I think the point is that NO ONE thinks that Geno is an elite QB, regardless of his deep ball stats.
     
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  7. Tuanon4Life

    Tuanon4Life Well-Known Member

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    I think the point is that Geno had very good stats across the board in addition to deep ball statistics. So to discount what Geno and Tua did with their deep throws would just be disingenuous. The knock on Tua was his weak arm and lack of a deep ball. The stats don't lie though and prove otherwise.
     
  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The stats don't lie, if you interpret them correctly. From a pure statistical point of view the main issue is small sample size. The standard error of the estimate (the unreliability of the statistic) is so large with 50 passing attempts that almost any "true" deep ball passing ability is consistent with those stats, including for QBs who aren't that good at it. Absolute minimum sample size necessary for passing attempts when using Y/A or passer rating is about 150 to conclude anything reliable.

    Having said that, the claim that because Geno Smith is #1 those are not good stats is meritless. The stats are fine, and they give you the best (objective) estimate of how good those QBs were last year at the deep ball. It's just that you need multiple seasons to conclude anything reliable because QBs don't throw that many deep balls.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2023
  9. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This post is just trolling
     
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  10. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    Top 3 QBs in deep ball accuracy: Geno, Pickett, and Tua. Pretty meaningless stuff without digging into how defenses were playing. Defenses adapt as they were doing towards the end of the season when Tua struggled.
     

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  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    What anyone thinks does not change his effectiveness last season. Period. And, the poster was not commenting on Geno's effectiveness. He tried to diminish Tua's accomplishments last season. That was the whole point of his post. In fact, it is the whole point of ALL his posts. That is why he is considered a troll.

    If his point was only Geno Smith, he would have tried to downplay his stats with all the usual tactics.... it was his receivers, he had a ton of 'almost INTs", receivers were wide open, etc, etc, etc. Always the same things and NEVER supported by any evidence whatsoever. That is his MO.
     
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  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Then dig into it...... go ahead. Or, spout BS. Your call.
     
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  13. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    But he played elite last year.
     
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  14. Tuanon4Life

    Tuanon4Life Well-Known Member

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    If Tua was last in deep ball accuracy you'd say he's trash. You should give credit where it's due. Like if Josh Allen is better than Tua at impregnating his bar tender or skull ****ing a defender (both actually happened btw) I give Josh Allen the credit. When one man is better at anything you just need to accept it.
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yep. If he does it again, then maybe Geno found the next level. But right now?

    He's Nich Foles.
     
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  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I feel like the deep ball stat is meaningless without context, IF you were using that stat to say that Tua is a good deep ball thrower. Please note, I'm not saying he ISN'T a good deep ball thrower, but that stat in and of itself doesn't tell us whether those deep balls were a result of the QB. IOW, if a receiver has 3 feet of separation on a corner, and he gets a 60 yard td, I'm not impressed that the QB hit him, as he was wide open.

    But that's just me.
     
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  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The article didn't use a stat. It used completion %, xComp, CPOE, passer rating, TD to INT ratio, att, cmp, yards, and Passing Score. These are all metrics compiled by the league's own stats site.

    Your concern is COVERED by the statistical analysis around metrics being used. They LITERALLY attempt to isolate the QB play from the rest of the team and take into account EXACTLY your concern. From an article on Passing Score (https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-passing-score-metric):

    All of these statistical endeavors share a common goal: to isolate the contributions of a quarterback from the team's collective passing production and efficiency. No matter the difficulty of a throw, traditional box score statistics (like yards and touchdowns) will treat a 72-yard touchdown pass the same whether it was thrown 40 yards in the air (and hits the receiver in stride) or if it was thrown to a wide-open receiver 6 yards downfield (who outruns the entire defense). The NGS Passing Score, like other metrics before it, seeks to improve on the limitations of the traditional box score.

    BTW the same is true of xComp (expected completion %) and CPOE.

    Your concern is completely misplaced. The metrics that were used to compile the list used context. They are ABSOLUTELY an attempt to inform us of the deep ball success was a result of the QB.

    It is almost like you didn't read the article and simply raised a concern because Tua was 2nd on the list.....
     
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  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Completely irrelevant to the discussion on what happened last season.
     
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  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Its utterly amazing to me how polarizing of a figure Tua Tagovailoa is to fans. I completely understand the injury concerns. I get that. I'm not oblivious to his injury history. Put that aside for a moment...just set it way over there for right now.

    After the Dolphins moved on from Fitzpatrick and handed the reigns over to Tua his second season in the league, his OVERALL PERFORMANCE was met with mixed reviews, everything from him being weaked armed, couldn't throw the long ball, only threw short passes, yada yada yada...and this doesn't even take into account the drama surrounding the rumors of Miami possibly pursuing Deshaun Watson and Flores' leaked admission he wanted Herbert and not Tagovailoa.

    Well, following the 2021 Days of our Lives soap opera of a season, the Dolphins moved on from Flores, brought in Mike McDaniel and it was said all throughout the off-season that this was Tua's MAKE OR BREAK season...that he had to demonstrate he was the quarterback the Dolphins thought he was going to be when they drafted him.

    So what does Tua do? He did EVERYTHING everyone said he needed to do. He led (or nearly led) the league in every significant and relevant quarterback stat and evaluation. He did what "you" and everyone else said he needed to do and instead of acknowledging his elevated game and demonstrated ability to perform on the field as everyone said he needed to do, what do we get?

    The same old, "yea but..."

    I don't get it. I really don't! I swear I honestly believe there are those here who would still, "yea but..." if the Dolphins won the Super Bowl with Tua as our quarterback.
     
  20. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Because ANYONE can be elite with Hill and Waddle!

    Oh, Bridgewater and Thompson had zero touchdowns to Hill or Waddle.
     
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  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Love how you believe that your opinion is fact, and you get to choose what is relevant or not.

    I'm simply responding to posts. I was not responding to YOUR post and the article you linked to. If a post makes me think something, I write it, that's how forums work.

    Really not sure why you are seemingly allergic to discussing things. I rarely post because I'm tired of you nit picking everything I say. Regardless of what I say, you repeatedly twist everything into an anti-Tua stance.

    I'm not saying Geno is or isn't elite as an attempt to denigrate Tua. But you don't actually want to talk about Geno because you KNOW he's not an elite QB, yet he's ranked above the guy you believe is, or will be, elite.
     
  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Jesus stay on topic

    Stop trying to denigrate everything he does at an elite level
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You keep bringing up Nick Foles. But the great majority of the time when an average-ish QB comes in #1 in passer rating it's late in their careers, i.e., you need many rolls of the dice before everything is just right, and it happens only once. The only exceptions seem to be Foles and Brian Griese who did it in year 2 starting.

    Since the 1970 merger:
    Brody in 1970 (14th year starting)
    Morrall in 1972 (17th year starting)
    Sipe in 1980 (7th year starting)
    Bartkowski in 1983 (9th year starting)
    Kramer in 1986 (10th year starting)
    Harbaugh in 1995 (8th year starting)
    Cunnningham in 1998 (13th year starting)
    Griese in 2000 (2nd year starting)
    McNair in 2003 (9th year starting)
    Foles in 2013 (2nd year starting)
    Smith in 2017 (12th year starting)
    Tannehill in 2019 (7th year starting)

    In contrast, when you look at "great" QBs, or QB who either have many great seasons or played solidly well above average over a long period of time, they usually do it more than once, and most do it for the first time by year 5 starting: Staubach, Anderson, Marino, Warner, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers and Wilson all did it within year 5 starting. Key exceptions are guys like Montana, Young, Brady and Brees. But the majority of the better QBs do it early in their careers for the first time, not late.

    So it's really more likely just based on historical data that Tua is NOT the next Foles or (Brian) Griese, and is instead more likely to be end up well above average over a career (i.e., someone you can consider a franchise QB), if he can stay healthy of course.
     
  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I am fine talking about Gene’s performance in 2022. The performances of the QBs on that list is what the thread is about. Unfortunately, you are trying to make it about something else. What Geno did before last season and what he does going forward is IRRELEVANT to his stats last season. That is not an opinion. It is reality. He could have a 0% completion percentage next season and that WOULD NOT CHANGE HIS LEAGUE LEADING 70% completion percentage last season.
     
  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. Same old shtick. You’re so misunderstood. The last time this came up 4 or 5 other posters interpreted your posts the same way I did.
     
  26. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    Spout BS? The top three players in deep ball accuracy were Geno, Pickett, and Tua. Don't let your feelings get in the way of the facts.
     
  27. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    The top 5 QBs in completion % over 15+ yard passes last season:

    Tua, Heinecke, Geno, Matt Ryan, Sam Darnold.

    What a group!

    [​IMG]
     

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  28. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Seems like a lot of the comments after his first two seasons said that he didn't have the arm to be a successful NFL QB. Most people would interpret the arm to mean the ability to throw deep downfield. When he's shown capable of not only having a strong enough arm to hit sprinting receivers, but a high level of accuracy while doing it, a lot of detractors are now saying that having the arm needs to be understood with context. Nobody ever talked about the context that applies to the QBs with whom he's frequently compared.

    Suggesting that we need to know if his deep throws (and Geno's) came against the same types of defenses is a red herring because they both played against several types of defenses last season. Tua played against the same defenses as Josh Allen and Tua's downfield accuracy outranked his. It'd be different if they played one game each.

    I dunno, man. When it goes from he can't do it to he can do it, but others do it better to maybe statistically he had a superior season but he still doesn't pass the eye test with me, I'm honestly thinking his detractors should simply say I don't like him and leave it at that. No context is needed; we like what we like and we know it when we see it. No justification is necessary. But arguing that you can't objectively rank players in spite of numbers to do so is hard for me to buy.
     
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  29. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure that's the case, and if so it's a pretty big misconception. Arm strength isn't about throwing deep. Any weak armed QB in the league can throw 40+ yards with ease. Chad Pennington who everyone knows had a weak arm, threw 50+ air yard passes. Arm strength shows up when you need to throw the ball on a rope 20 yards, or need to throw to the sidelines, or when you don't have your feet set. That's arm strength.
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Problem is even anti-Tua posters can't completely distance themselves from reality. They have to accept that he put up the stats he put up, and saying "I don't like him" in the face of elite stats sounds ridiculous unless you find ways to explain away those stats by crediting everyone else except Tua, which is why they try to "put stats in proper context" if the stats make Tua look good.

    My prediction is that this will continue next year even if Tua does well again. I don't see any inkling of a serious attempt by anti-Tua posters to evaluate Tua independent of their pre-draft evaluations.

    It might even be worse next year if we have a good defense. My prediction is we'll hear something like: "See!! Tua did worse in 2023 even with a much better defense!.. proves he's not much better than average and that 2022 was a fluke". Of course it's extremely difficult to repeat at #1, but that's beside the point.

    And regarding the deep ball specifically, you'll never get past the "he doesn't have a strong arm, so his stats don't matter".
     
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  31. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Tua was objectively the 2nd most effective deep ball passer in 2022. He could have a literal noodle instead of an arm and the results are what they are. Subjectivity is cool, but IMO, it's the fallback of folks who can't objectively state their case.

    It's like (for example):
    "Our guy threw more runners out at first without errors than any other shortstop."
    "That doesn't mean he's more accurate because we don't know how many of those throws came closer to second than third. Other shortstops might have been better, but we'll never know if they had to throw the ball 20 feet further than McGinty did."

    All we know is what we know. Some fans' motto should be "Every time you think you know the answer, I change the question".
     
  32. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Tua's stats are all but certain to regress, even if he has a better season in the macro. He had a historically great season from an advanced metrics perspective. It's unreasonable to expect anything close, but if he finishes as a top-10 QB of a team that goes to the playoffs, I can already hear some fans saying "See, I told you he wasn't that good" and using the statistical drop to explain it.
     
  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah for me the target is 1 standard deviation above the mean in passer rating, which was 97 last year. In some years past it was a bit over 100, but generally that will correspond to top 6-7 in passer rating. Note that the average passer rating a SB winning QB has in the year they win the SB is just at about 1 standard deviation above the mean, so that's not an arbitrary target either.

    If Tua does that (and keeps doing that most of the time), there's really no argument he's not good enough.
     
  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Are you saying a higher completion percentage is bad?

    And, why do you keep brining up completion percentage only? Why ignore all the other metrics in the article? The article includes expected completion percentage and CPOE, which is a more complete picture.
     
  35. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    this is 100% true. I have yet to see a fact based argument supported by stats by any of them, especially the two in this thread.
     
  36. Tuanon4Life

    Tuanon4Life Well-Known Member

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    They'll never admit they were wrong. The Tua doubters never thought he could improve so much so they spin it any way they can to take any and all credit away. The only concern left is Tua's ability to stay healthy for an entire season. If he makes it through 2023 they'll say it was a fluke and let's see if he can do it for two years yada yada. If someone has concerns for Tua's durability I totally understand but like you said he improved EVERYTHING he was criticized for in his first two seasons. Oh well. I just try to stay positive and supportive of our QB.
     
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  37. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Tua does not have a strong arm for an NFL QB, that is not subjective that is fact. Yes, he can still get the job done throwing deep to wide open Hill and Waddle, but that does not negate the fact he has a relatively weak arm. His deep ball tops out at 55 air yards, while other QBs like Mahomes, Hill, Allen, Rodgers, and Brady can throw it 75-80 air yards easy. Most importantly he also lacks velocity on his throws regardless of distance, specially when throwing off platform. Yes, all of that didn't matter much last season because of the system that was implemented to hide his weak arm and the wide open guys he was throwing to, but him having a relatively weak arm is still true, regardless of his deep ball stats.
     
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  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Tua did not have his receivers more open than other top receivers. His arm isn't as weak as you claim. It is on par with Brees who will be a first ballot HOFer.

    Tua's ability to throw accurately with anticipation is what allows him to overcome his lack of elite arm strength, not the scheme, not the receivers.

    The metrics used in the article measure the QB's contribution to deep pass success. In other words, they control for your unsupported claim that his success was based on Hill and Waddle being wide open. What you are asserting is simply not true.

    Finally, the number of passes attempted per season of greater than 55 air yards can probably be counted on one hand for the QBs you mention. OTOH, Tua's superior ability to throw with anticipation make him more effective than other QBs on hundreds of throws per year.
     
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  39. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    He self admittedly doesn't watch most games, doesn't understand analytics and gets most of his information from the 30 second highlight packages. I used to give him the benefit of the doubt because he doesn't actually watch the games or game film but I have given up.
     

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