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Tua 2nd most effective deep passer in 2022

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by FinFaninBuffalo, Jun 2, 2023.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I. WASN'T. Talking. About. Tua.

    I ALSO stated that I wasn't saying Tua want a good deep ball thrower.

    Holy ****ing **** you guys are unrelenting in your twisting of everything I write.
     
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Correct. You, and a couple others continue to ignore what I actually say by constantly calling me a troll.
     
  3. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    No, your approach was to look at a category that Tua did well in (deep passing) and simply claim that the "deep ball stat" is meaningless without context. This is an attempt to cast doubt on Tua, despite the FACT that the statistics in question ABSOLUTELY PROVIDED CONTEXT.

    These are your words:

    but that stat in and of itself doesn't tell us whether those deep balls were a result of the QB. IOW, if a receiver has 3 feet of separation on a corner, and he gets a 60 yard td, I'm not impressed that the QB hit him, as he was wide open.

    But the metrics used in the article already accounted for your "concern". So the "stat" DOES TELL US WHETHER THOSE DEEP BALLS WERE A RESULT OF THE QB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Even the deep ball accuracy stat is a measure of how accurately the QB threw the ball. PERIOD. The point is to credit the QB for accurate balls that were dropped and penalize the QB for inaccurate balls that were caught. This is in contrast to completion percentage which does neither of those.

    Also, the article used expected completion percentage and CPOE which are also intended to show the value the QB is contributing. So, using your example, if Tua is throwing to wide open receivers, his expected completion percentage would be high and if he is just average, his CPOE would be near 0 or if he was below average, his CPOE would be negative. In fact, on deep passes, his CPOE was 10.4 and was second highest on the list.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2023
  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. My mother used to have a saying "I'm alright, it's the world that is all wrong." For her, it was a joke. You actually believe it.....
     
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  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You have made this claim several times. The league has a metric for this. It is called aggressiveness %. It is the percentage of throws that are made into tight windows. If your assertion is correct, Tua would have a very low aggressiveness %. In fact, he has a middle of the pack aggressiveness %. It is higher (meaning he is throwing into tight windows MORE OFTEN) than Mahomes, Allen, and Trevor Lawrence. It was similar (all between 14% and 15.3%) to Herbert, Burrow, Brady, Rodgers, Cousins, Mac Jones, and Hurts.

    So, as usual, a claim made so confidently by a Tua doubter is simply false.
     
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  6. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tua haters..

    You’re gonna take that’s…and accept it
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Lies. StaleTacos tried to dismiss deep ball stats that showed Tua was good by saying Geno Smith is #1 and you defended that argument by saying the point is that no one thinks Geno Smith is an elite QB despite his deep ball stats, after which Silverphin said in response that he played elite last year, after which you said until he does it again it's Nick Foles. So yes, the entire discussion was about Tua. It's precisely the same argument you've used against Tua in the past: until he does it again he's Nick Foles, to which my post was very relevant because I showed that you need to look at when they did it.

    Also your strategy of constantly acting like we keep misrepresenting what you're saying isn't going to work. We're not idiots. Your strategy is to say two contradictory things: "X is true" and "X is not true", and then when called on saying "X is true" you say "Oh!! but I said X is not true". You act like we have no ability to think logically or put things in context. Sorry you're thoroughly anti-Tua until you stop assuming Tua's elite stats were primarily due to his surrounding cast.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2023
  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Many Tua doubters like to point to Justin Herbert as the better QB along with the claim that Tua is throwing to "wide open receivers". Let's take a look at average separation for Tua's and Herbert's receivers:

    Keenan Allen - 3.6 yards
    Josh Palmer - 3.5 yards
    DeAndre Carter - 3.3 yards
    Tyreek Hill - 3.3 yards
    Gerald Everett - 3.3 yards
    Mike Gesicki - 3.1 yards
    Jaylen Waddle - 3.0 yards
    Trent Sherfield - 2.9 yards
    Mike Williams - 2.8 yards

    Once again, the Tua doubters have it all wrong. In fact, Herbert has been throwing to guys that are, on average, more open.
     
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  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He also chimed in with his own claim that the "deep ball stat" (whatever the hell that is) is meaningless without context, implying that Tua should not be given credit for his success. This is just another form of the consistent effort to deflect credit away from Tua and give it to the supporting cast.
     
    cbrad likes this.
  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yup.. and as you mentioned earlier, CPOE measures how much higher completion probability is relative to what is expected in that situation (i.e., relative to historical performance in that situation). Now, technically that stat is like Y/A or passer rating in that it measures contribution of both the QB and WR, but if someone comes back and starts acting like CPOE in this case is primarily due to Hill/Waddle with little to no contribution by Tua, then it's exactly the same thing about assuming Tua's elite stats are primarily due to others, not him. An assumption with no evidence of any sort.
     
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  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if the anti-Tua crowd would like to answer how Tua breaks the expected completion % model. Here is a description of the factors used in modeling expected completion % (https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-introduction-to-completion-probability-0ap3000000964655):

    1. Air Distance: As distance between the quarterback at the time of the throw to the location of the receiver at the time of the catch increases, the likelihood of a completion decreases. Passes traveling more than 40 air distance yards have roughly a 20% chance of completion, while passes traveling 10 air distance yards have a roughly 80% chance of completion.
    2. Target Separation: As the distance between the receiver and nearest defender increases, the likelihood of a completion also increases. The thickness of the each data point of the plot shows the density of passes for each level of target separation which suggests the majority of passes come with less than 4 yards of target separation.
    3. Sideline Separation: As the distance between the receiver and the sideline decreases, the likelihood of a completion also decreases. The probability of a completed pass decreases rapidly at 5 yards of sideline separation. Controlling for all other factors, passes to the sideline just inside the white paint have a roughly 30% chance of completion.
    4. Pass Rush Separation: As the distance between the quarterback and nearest pass rusher at the time of the throw decreases, the likelihood of a completion also decreases. A quarterback throwing with no defenders around has a higher probability of a completed pass compared to a quarterback with a pass rusher within a few yards at the time for the throw.
    5. Passer Speed: As the speed of the quarterback at the time of the throw increases, the likelihood of a completed pass decreases. Speed below 8 MPH has little effect on the probability of a completion, however, as the speed of the quarterback increases above 8 MPH, the chance of completion decreases dramatically.
    6. Time to Throw: As the duration of time increases from snap to throw, the likelihood of a completed pass decreases. Most passes occur between 2 and 3 seconds after the snap, and the probability of a completion declines significantly after 3 seconds.

    If we go by the opinions of the anti-Tua crowd:

    1. Air Distance. Tua has a weak arm he must be throwing all short passes.
    2. Target separation. His receivers are "wide open". Enough said.
    3. Sideline separation. Tua cannot throw to the sideline. All his throws are to the middle of the field.
    4. Pass rush separation. Tua just catches the snap and throws the ball. Pass rushers have no time to get close.
    5. Passer speed. Tua is slow and also needs to set his feet to throw. His passer speed must be near 0.
    6. Time to throw. Tua just catches the snap and throws the ball. Must be very very low.

    Given all these factors, Tua's expected completion percentage should be near 100%. As we have been repeatedly told, anyone can make his throws.

    What is reality? Tua's expected completion percentage was 65.1%. That is below Burrow, Rodgers, Lawrence, Herbert, Mac Jones, Brady, Mahomes, Stafford, Goff, and Garoppolo.

    Now, no single metric paints the complete picture, but this should (but it won't) put to rest some of the BS talking points of the anti-Tua crowd.
     
  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    BTW, LOL @ the idea that 3 feet of separation being "wide open". This may explain a lot about the things you post .....

    For contrast, here is how the league's stats site defines the passing stat called aggressiveness:

    Aggressiveness (AGG%)
    Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

    LOL. What you call "wide open" is really considered a tight window by people who track this stuff for a living.......
     
  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No we’re not, not when you defend and support the positions of haters in every thread that are off topic and try to denigrate the player in question

    You’re not the victim so stop playing as such Res
     
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  14. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    You and I see Tua differently. I see a lot of positives and recognize he has opportunities. You see opportunities and recognize he has positive aspects. I can't lie and say that I thought you to be a troll at the beginning of the other thread, but I can also admit that I saw in your posts what I wanted to see. I think I even apologized for equating you with the hardline Tua detractors (at least once). I no longer see you in that light.

    There's absolutely nothing wrong with having different opinions. There's absolutely nothing wrong with wanting better players on the roster. We should all want that. I think too many times, we (myself included) project on other posters and don't actually read what they posted.

    With that being said, I think a lot of the pushback you get is because others on that side of the Tua divide go to ridiculous lengths to make any positive thing he does into either a negative or to mitigate it due to circumstances out of his control. It makes it hard to have an earnest debate. That's too bad because we have a lot of intelligent posters, yet most of us have gone out of our way to prove otherwise when it comes to our opinions about #1.
     
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  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Here is my problem with resnor. He rarely, if ever, backs anything up with evidence. The most recent comments on deep passing is a perfect example. He raises a bogus concern about "the stat" lacking context. The intent was clear, even though Tua was second ranked in deep passing, we should not put too much stock into it because he might be throwing to wide open receivers.

    The problem is that his premise is completely wrong. The article quoted and the deep ball accuracy stat post that he responded to do not suffer from the flaw he mentioned (i.e. not taking into account if a receiver is wide open). In fact, the metrics in the article absolutely account for the possibility of the WRs begin wide open and take that into consideration. In addition, the accuracy of a throw is independent of how open the receiver is.

    I can't recall a single time that he actually researched something and posted the results here. Ever.
     
    djphinfan likes this.
  16. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    It's all good. As I said, we're all entitled to our opinions and if he doesn't like Tua for *reasons*, that's cool. I still don't think he's as bad as the people who constantly move goalposts to explain why - after using stats to crucify Tua for two seasons - statistics are not a good way to measure him. Especially when we refer to things as subjective as the "deep ball". For some, a deep pass travels 20 yards in the air. For others, 40 is a deep ball. For some Dolphins fans, a deep ball is one that travels 55+ yards, even though those account for a tiny fraction of throws and completions. It comes across as culpable deniability trying hard to be a reason why their opinion must be right.

    One thing that we can all agree on is that none of us is going to change the opinion of someone who thinks differently about our quarterback. Lines have been drawn and receipts have been printed up. It's silly to debate it at this point, but it's the offseason, so we can still have fun discussing it. I think we can do ourselves (and the mods) a big favor by learning to disagree without being disagreeable.
     
  17. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I can see this thread getting shut down right quick and in a hurry
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Unless they want to shut the entire site down, at some point you have to just let people be people.
     
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  19. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    lol
     
  20. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And it is a damn shame...... can't have a positive thread about the Dolphins starting QB.......... on a DOLPHINS FAN SITE......
     
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  21. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    You can. It just becomes problematic when many can't stop discussing other posters. Keep the discussion to the field and the players on them.
     
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  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I’d like to see the opposing side make one cogent argument without stating things that are demonstrably false (e.g. Tua is throwing to wide open receivers).

    I have posted three separate things that refute that claim:

    1. Tua’s aggressiveness % stat.
    2. Tua’s expected completion percentage stat.
    3. Average separation stats for the Dolphins receivers.

    No doubt, the claim will be made again.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2023
  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    “Don’t let them Fool ya”

    It’s just their way of keeping you on their string
     
  24. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I don't know how many times we've been over this and you keep bringing up the same separation stat. The stat is meaningless in the context of Tua and discussing arm strength/velocity vs other QBs which is what I was referring to.

    A QB who throws with as much anticipation as Tua will show up as throwing to recievers with poor separation if they measure at the time he throws it, since he throws it before the receiver actually makes his break and separates. On the other hand, if they measure at the time the ball is caught, it can also show up as poor separation if the QB has a weak arm and throws a low velocity ball that takes longer to get there, since receivers have to slow down to wait for the ball and it gives defender a chance to recover and get closer to the receiver by the time the ball gets there.

    It's a misleading stat, just as air yards per attempt or air yards per completion is a misleading stat in terms of showing arm strength or deep ball, High velocity throwing capability. This is 90% of our arguments is you guys keep postíng stats and treating them as gospel while ignoring reality and context.

    Fact is Tua does not have a strong arm and he is not some great deep ball thrower, regardless of what your stats say.
     
    Sceeto likes this.
  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Can't make this up.
    What you don't seem to get hitman8 is that what matters is actual performance, not physical traits. Lots of QBs with great physical traits were busts, but you wouldn't care because they had the physical traits. Tua's arm strength is irrelevant in this context because he had other traits (e.g., high level anticipation) that allowed him to still be a good deep ball thrower.

    Basically your point of view is that helping the team win (i.e., deep ball stats that reflect actual performance) doesn't matter. What matters is arm strength. It's a ludicrous position.
     
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  26. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    That is not my position, if Tua and the team can overcome his limitarions and still put up nice numbers and help the team win that is wonderful, lets keep it up for long enough to actually win a playoffs game for once in 2 decades please, but dont try to argue that he actually does not have limitations and people are crazy or trolls for saying he has a weak arm.
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Tua has physical limitations like arm strength. I've never argued otherwise. But what matters when talking about whether someone is or is not good at something IS performance. He IS a good deep ball thrower despite having key physical limitations. You're saying he isn't a good deep ball thrower because of his limitations no matter the actual performance. That's the difference.
     
  28. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    way to mix two arguments together. You and others have made the claim that he throws to wide open receivers. Now you are trying to explain why he doesn’t throw to wide open receivers and are trying to blame Tua for it…..
     
  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    That is just a dodge on his part. I have acknowledged Tua’s limited arm strength multiple times.
     
  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    hitman8 actually argues for two opposite positions in the same thread. Incredible......

    W.....T.....F..... Seriously, you are willing to flip positions in efforts take credit away from Tua on one hand and blame him on the other, for the SAME measure..... This just proves that you have a conclusion drawn and damn the evidence because you'll twist whatever evidence there is to match your pre-conceived conclusion.
     
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  31. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    They also have to keep the stats to 2023, ignore the final month of the season. Also, 2022 and 2021 didn't happen. Then their stats fit their argument.
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You're off by 1 year. 2023 hasn't happened yet.

    Either way, you're the one that kept focusing on just Tua's collapse at the end so the cherry picking is far worse on your side. The entire 2022 season is what Tua supporters are looking at, no cherry picking, and he ended #1 in key stats.

    As far as his first two years, yeah they weren't good, but he improved from 87.1 to 90.1 to 105.5. Trend is good. How someone can look at that and think this guy is no better than average is beyond me. The stats don't back up that kind of a position. Need that extra pre-draft subjective bias sauce to make that kind of argument work.
     
  33. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    Well the cherrypicking is actually relevant to how defenses work. They learn as the season goes on. They learn the scheme. They take away where Tua is strong (eg middle deep of the field.) They mess with timing. Flores in Pittsburg game had Tua a complete mess because he knew his weaknesses.

    The trend is good, but doesn't mean much. He could very well go back to 87-90 range next season as he was heading in 2023. Full season, play through injuries, play top 5-10, & win a playoff game. I'll get on board. Until then....
     
  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Same ****ing post this person posted in the other Tua thread

    Regurgitation at the highest level and y’all just keep engaging the arguments
     
  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I put all their azzes on ignore

    Now when I start threads they won’t be able to participate
     
  36. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    I'll give you a new stat. 2021 2nd most effective deep passer (according to this stat): Matt Ryan
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'll be off the pro-Tua train too if he goes back to average next year. Let his play decide. But until then... there's no reason to just assume he's going back to average! There are a lot of statistical indicators he isn't another Foles. Have the see the positives in addition to the negatives.
     
  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You make these statements like they are slurs...... and prove something....

    The stats are the stats. Regardless of what you think about them or the players. He had the highest completion %, highest CPOE, and a very high passer rating. I've got news for you, those are all objectively good things, REGARDLESS OF WHO ACHIEVES THEM!

    I could imagine your reaction to Tua being second in the league in TD passes with 50. StaleTacos: "Pffft, big deal did you see who was number 1!"

    The only legit criticism of deep ball passing rankings is limited sample size. That is all. Even that is mitigated by the fact that the sample size is small for all QBs. So, in this case, we are not comparing one player with a small sample size to others with a large sample size.

    But, that is a difficult position for you to take since the anti-Tua crowd has harped on arm strength so much as a fatal flaw that you'd now need to admit that 20+ air yard throws are infrequent or that Tua succeeded at them last season......
     
  39. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    Over and over again you keep ignoring the fact 20+ air yard throws have NOTHING to do with arm strength. Throwing 20+ air yards is something EVERY weak armed QB can do. That's why someone like Matt Ryan, who arguably has the worst arm in the NFL, was also ranked 2nd in 2021. You don't need arm strength to make these throws. You need arm strength to throw to the sidelines on a curl route. You need arm strength to throw seeds. You need arm strength when you don't have your feet under you and have to throw off-balance. THAT is arm strength.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2023
  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The thread is about deep passing effectiveness in 2022.........

    But, if you want to talk about all all pass types..... Tua finished 1st in passer rating.....

    I have a simple question for you. What would Tua need to accomplish as a QB for you to finally agree that he is successful despite having average arm strength? Do you still think Drew Brees is limited because of arm strength? Should he be kept out of the HOF because if it?
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2023
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