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Tua 2nd most effective deep passer in 2022

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by FinFaninBuffalo, Jun 2, 2023.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I sometimes support their arguments/viewpoints, as there is sometimes credible stuff there. I sometimes click "Like" on posts that I don't necessarily agree with, but I respect the effort that went into the post, or the info contained, or the perspective given.

    You like to assume that because I "Like" someone's post that that means I am in complete, lockstep agreement with them.

    It does not.

    I'm not saying I'm a victim. I'm saying, that despite what you have assumed, when I repeatedly telling you what I am attempting to do, and what my position is, you guys just tell me I'm lying.

    You and a couple others are playing a zero-sum game with my posts. You understand what that means, right?
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think that's true most of the time, but it's also true that you "like" lots of troll posts with no content except insults or with made-up info in them. Your behavior changes during intense arguments. You start to "like" every post by any poster arguing against the people you're arguing no matter the content. That's something you've done for years. I remember during the time Fin-D was here (a true troll that thankfully got banned) he would have a string of posts with nothing but insults you'd "like" one after another. So yes you do like troll posts a lot, most recently (and multiple times) in that Tua thread that got locked.

    Yeah it means you don't have a consistent position. There's nothing wrong with people pointing that out.
     
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  3. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Wait.... Claiming your only concern is his health and then pointing out a bunch of other things that concern you is not maintaining a consistent position??? I think you are playing a zero sum game.



     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lol
     
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  5. Tuanon4Life

    Tuanon4Life Well-Known Member

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    This would be considered checkmate.
     
  6. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Have some really become so pathetic and petty that they’re bringing up who “thanked” who’s post?
    ……wow. ….far out …..new low.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's evidence of which positions you support, especially when it's highly consistent and one-sided. When one constantly likes anti-Tua posts it's hard to claim you're not anti-Tua yourself, especially when the posts you "like" are consistent with your own posts.
     
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  8. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    …..omg.
     
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  9. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Once again bringing nothing relevant to the conversation.
     
  10. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yup sure is pathetic when someone thanks a troll post...lol
     
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  11. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    :sidelol: ….omg
     
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  12. StaleTacos

    StaleTacos Well-Known Member

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    Folks trying so hard in this thread for moral high ground. Resnor a saint for interacting.
     
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  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    guys, seriously ignore these trolls, they have taken over all the narratives and your replies..

    its not fair to the site to give them all your attention or the respect of responding to them.

    take a stand and ignore
     
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  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Dont get them the satisfaction, that’s why they keep coming back
     
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  15. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Geno Smith had 29 starts in 2013/2014 for the Jets which account for his horrible early stats.
    Since then he has pisted season passer ratings of:
    2015 - 87.9
    2016 - 81.2
    2017 - 84.9
    2018 - 39.6 (on 4 attempts)
    2019 - no attempts
    2020 - 94.2 (on 5 attempts)
    However in 2015 to 2020 he only had a total of 101 attempts over 6 seasons.

    then in 2021 and 2022 he posted a combined passer rating of 101.0 in 20 starts.

    I’m prepared to bet that Geno Smith’s last 20 starts over the last 2 years are much more indicative of his 2023 performance than his 29 starts in 2013 and 14 which are more than 8 years ago and include his rookie and sophomore seasons. After he left the Jets he sat behind Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and the Seahawks version of Russel Wilson. On those teams he had no chance of displacing the starter which could explain why he didn’t get opportunities during his wilderness years.

    I haven’t looked into the Seahawk’s offseason in any detail but I don’t recall hearing any significant players leaving their WR room or OL.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, you are confusing YOUR opinion of what is happening (also your opinion of trolling) instead of accepting what I'm telling you is my motivation.

    It's like you've never considered that I like posts of people who were not being d!ckheads to me, and are getting trolled by FFiB, and others.

    Again, I'm not a robot. Might I troll sometimes? Probably, just like you, and everyone else, I'm human. That doesn't mean that I "don't take a consistent position."

    FinD was not a troll. That's bull****. I've communicated with the guy since he left, exchanged numerous PMs and emails. But again, your narcissism shows, as you dredge up another poster who you truly knew nothing about, but assumed that you did.

    Also, you NEVER refer to FinFan as trolling...but that all the dude does. But because you agree with his overall position, you DGAF that he's trolling
    Want to talk about not having a consistent position.
     
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  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'd also like to point out, you ****ing people just HAVE to CONTINUOUSLY talk about ME. I'm constantly having to defend myself, which is completely against the ToS. It's ridiculous. Address the things I bring up, and stop trying to ascribe motives. You ***** about people stuck on their predraft evaluations of a Tua, but you are completely inflexible once you've judged that you think you know who people are.

    Hypocritical.
     
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  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Quoting your posts is now trolling? How would you describe someone who posts mostly negative opinions of the team's QB without any supporting evidence whatsoever?

    IMO, the next time that you support your position on Tua with actual metrics, data, video review, etc will be the first time. Or correct me if I'm wrong. I've posted NUMEROUS detailed, supported posts backing my opinions. Please point me to your equally detailed and supported rebuttals. Point them out and I will acknowledge that I am wrong.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2023
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  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I did address the things you brought up with quoted posts from you. I didn't ascribe a motive. Please tell me what I got wrong?
     
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  20. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    How is FinD doing? If you PM him tell him I said hi.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2023
  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Me too
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Dude those ratings you quote from 2015-2020 were not only based on 101 attempts as you point out (so they're basically not reliable), the combined rating was 83.9, so well below average. Geno Smith was well below average all the way until 2021.

    Yes I understand your prediction, and we'll see what happens. But Geno Smith plays top 10 from here on out it's the first time we'll have ever seen that kind of late career jump in the NFL. I'm going with historical probabilities, which usually turn out right (many of my past predictions worked out due to that too). So we'll see.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    OK first of all it is proven you do NOT have a consistent position. Many posts have shown that, and many posters see that. You haven't had a consistent position since your last flip flop. Secondly, I'm not questioning your motivation. I'm just pointing out you don't have a consistent position. Third, people here have been addressing issues you brought up for ages.

    Fourth, Fin D was a troll if there ever was one. Just ask the mods. There's a reason they banned him. Fifth, FinFaninBuffalo provides a lot of actual data to back up his opinion. No one who does that (which btw doesn't include you since you don't do your own research) is worth calling a troll. I had no problem debating him over longer periods when I disagreed with him over Tannehill.

    Finally, you are NOT that important!!!! We aren't here to focus on you. The pro-Tua crowd debates everyone in the anti-Tua crowd, not just you. And debating you isn't against the ToS. If you think it is report it to the mods and let's find out. Also, you really do think you're a victim based on your latest post. You just got through saying you're not claiming that, but that's another inconsistent position of yours.
     
  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    We still disagree on Tannehill.... but that is fine since you are easily the most knowledgable stats person on the site and back up your opinions with facts and analysis. BTW, your statistical analysis brings a lot of information to the site and provides a very interesting perspective.
     
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  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    So do you think that the anomaly is due to it being rare for a player to improve at that stage or rare that they are given a chance or both? IMO, it is rare for a player to be in the right situation to be given a second chance at that stage of their career (unless your name is Ryan Fitzpatrick). I think the league is just big on bringing in the next big thing. Seems like journeymen types get multiple chances (to be the journeyman) but failed high draft picks rarely get additional chances.

    Geno is a good example. If the Seahawks and Wilson do not have a falling out, Geno doesn't get this chance.

    Ignore the years where he did not get enough attempts and just look at the three where he did:

    upload_2023-6-20_13-54-55.png

    I see a steady improvement in almost all categories. Should be interesting to see what happens.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think it's rare for a player to improve at that stage of their career. Here's a graph of adjusted passer rating (adjusted to the year 2016 when league average was 89.3) for all QBs since 1978 given the number of years experience since their first year starting. This includes backups. Not only does one not see much improvement on average later on (especially given that the average tends higher primarily due to better QBs remaining in the league while the worst ones are out after a few years), one sees almost no individual QBs (individual gray lines) that show sustained improvement starting late in their career, and none with the sudden jump being predicted here.

    passer rating vs experience from 1978.png

    To be clear, there are many cases where there's one anomalous year, sometimes two. But a sudden jump up that's sustained? Rare if the guy is a starter for a long time, and so far never for something like Geno Smith. I mean, there's always a first time so maybe Geno Smith turns out to be the exception, but I'm not betting on it.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2023
  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Well I can't recall another QB that had their jaw broken by getting punched in the face by a teammate either. Maybe Geno is the anomaly....
     
  28. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Ummmm, you do know that Earl Morrell led the Dolphins to MANY of the wins during the ‘72 perfect season, don’t you?

    Griese went down with a broken leg in week 5 of the season and Morrell started the remainder of the season, until Griese relived him in the 2nd half of the AFC Championship game.
     
  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Gentlemen, PLEASE…

    Can we please get back on topic? This thread is about Tua, not Resnor.

    Ya’ll are starting to piss me off to the highest level of pisstivity. I come here for football discussions, not arguing who’s a troll and who isn’t.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Morrall didn't really play much for the Dolphins after 1972. He only had 134 passing attempts total from 1973-1976. So he didn't have sustained high level play as a starter for the Dolphins for 2+ seasons which is being predicted here. One could go back before that to Baltimore, but again it wasn't sustained. In 1968 he comes in 2nd in passer rating only to come in well below average in 1971, the only two years he started the majority of games for them. And prior to Baltimore is really hard to work with because stats back then don't really compare to stats today.
     
  31. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    From what I understand of your argument, what Geno Smith has done over the last 2 seasons has never been done in the post 1978 (i.e. reliable passing statistics era) NFL.
    Doesn’t that change the argument from
    “It’s never happened before” to “can he continue doing something no one else has previously done”.

    I also think you may be overlooking one of the fundamental rules for analyzing and understanding football. To whit “The Jets suck”.
    Based on “the Jets suck” I think a good prop bet for the 2023 season would be that Geno Smith will have a higher passer rating than Aaron Rogers.

    On a more serious note, I’d feel a lot more confident in predicting Geno Smith to continue at a high level if he had another 100+ attempts at the same rating he had in 2020. But the Seahawks did let Wilson walk and made no effort to find an upgrade over Smith, so maybe what they were seeing in practice gave them confidence that Geno Smith was their man, like when the Chiefs ket Alex Smith walk confident that Patrick Mahomes would be their man.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It's basically 1 season (only 95 passing attempts in 2021). If you're just looking for someone who was often a backup and had one elite season later on in his career there are other examples, even if it's not the exact same pattern as Geno Smith. Take Tommy Kramer (note in Kramer's case he was often forced into the backup role due to injury):
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KramTo00.htm

    Kramer came in #1 in passer rating in 1986 above Marino (who came in 2nd) after a long career of average-ish play. He dropped right back to average right afterwards. So it's not unprecedented to have a sudden highly anomalous elite stats year late in one's career for someone who was often a backup. Doing something at a sustained high level afterwards however hasn't been done.
     
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2023
  33. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Because Allen is a one man show, while Tua is a system QB playing with the best reciever duo in the NFL.
     
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2023
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  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I'm still curious to see how often a high draft pick failed on a bad team for two seasons and then got no significant opportunities to start for 6 seasons, only to then get another legit chance (where the team doesn't immediately draft his replacement). I just can't recall that happening too often. Usually draft picks are given more than two seasons. IMO, (just like Tua) 2 seasons on a bad team doesn't prove anything.

    If these three years were years 1 - 3, people would have a different opinion of what the next year might look like.

    [​IMG]

    Not saying he will continue his 2022 play, just that the fact it is rare is at least partly due to the opportunities being rare.

    "it has never happened before" is not as significant if "it has never been tried before".
     
  35. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    2 differences.
    1) There was a lot of data on Kramer being an average at best QB in the years prior to 1886. But with Geno Smith we essentially have next to zero data, an average of less than 17 attempts per season, for the 6 years before Geno Smith started playing well. We seriously don’t have enough data to statistically assess how good or bad a QB Geno Smith was between 2015 and 2020.
    2) Kramer lead the league on 372 attempts. Geno Smith has 667 attempts at 101.0 rating over the last 2 years which makes it much harder for Geno’s case to be a statistical fluke.

    Before the 2022 season I was in complete agreement with your position. After looking at the 2022 numbers and watching a few complete Seahawks games I believe there is a good chance Geno Smith can sustain what he’s done on 2021 snd 2022. There’s nothing I saw in the games I watched or in the data to suggest Geno Smith was getting the benefit of unusual number of unrepeatable random events, such as defenders batting possible interceptions to a receiver for a TD).

    I’m happy to discount 2020 as it was only 5 attempts. I don’t think it’s fair to discount 2021 because it was 100% consistent with 2022 and it involves the same team mates with the same coaches.
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That first point isn't as strong as you think. Geno was healthy for much of the time he was a backup. Coaches simply didn't see enough for him to beat out the starter who was often no better than an average QB (e.g., Fitzpatrick). So the absence of data is actually evidence he couldn't beat out even an average starter much of the time.

    The second point is valid, but keep in mind that standard errors (measure of uncertainty) go down with the square root of the sample size. So while 667 is 1.79 times 372, the uncertainty doesn't go down by 1.79. Instead it's sqrt(372)/sqrt(667) = 0.747 what it was before. In other words you've only reduced the uncertainty by about 25%. It's not as big a change as you'd might think.

    I agree 2021 counts, but it's not worth a full season. The average number of passing attempts per game in 2021 was 34.4, so 667 is 1.21 seasons. Not enough to really count it as 2 seasons.

    Regarding the eye test, it's actually even more impressive than you make it out to be given that Seattle was not expected to do well in 2022 (Vegas predicted 5.5 wins) and he didn't have elite WRs. So yeah he looked good. But looks can be deceiving. Matt Ryan looked like the next Peyton Manning in 2016, and I predicted the same thing for him too based on stats alone: he wouldn't sustain it given his history. That prediction came out right. So we'll see if Smith is the exception this time.
     
  37. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting stuff but Geno had at least one elite WR in Metcalf and Lockett is no slouch either.
     
  38. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    On the eyeball test, I am in no way qualified to do a deep analysis. What I was interested in seeing was if therecwas something about the circumstances that lead to Geno’s numbers. Examples being McMahon putting uo good numbers for the ‘85 Bears because the defense kept putting him in good circumstances, Mark Rypien in 1991 putting up great numbers behind an all time great OL and throwing to am elite WR corps, The QB getting bailed out by great performances by skill players, or a unique scheme that DCs hadn’t cottoned onto yet a la Chip Kelly in Philly.
    What I saw was smart efficient QB play, but that opinion needs to be taken with a truckload of salt because I know I’m not expert enough to donthe evaluation.
     
  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    IMO, his time with the Jets was ruined by his poor first two years and locker room issues. He was slated to start his third season but had his jaw broken by a teammate before the season. Fitz had his typical single decent season (in 2015) with a new team. They started 4-2 after going 4-12 the year before. That eliminated 2015 and 2016. IMO, the only reason he was kept was that he was on a rookie contract.

    Then he went to the Giants (super bowl winning QB), Chargers(highly regarded QB), Seahawks (super bowl winning QB). IMO, until the Wilson/Seahawks relationship went south, he never really had a chance to start. He went to three teams with established starters. It would have taken an injury to put him in the lineup for any significant period of time. He just happened go to three teams with iron man starters (Manning missed one game between 2005 and 2018, Rivers missed 0 games from 2006 to 2020, Wilson missed 5 games from 2012 to 2022).

    So, I think your characterization is wrong. I doubt there were any open competitions in NYJ (2015 after getting hurt, 2016), NYG (2017), SD (2018), or Sea (2019 - 2021. before Wilson left).
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2023
  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    "Elite" isn't a word that should be thrown around casually. Maybe someone is elite if they're top 5 or so? That's what we do for QBs. Would you put Metcalf in top 5 today? I wouldn't. Not even close. PFF (for whatever it's worth) didn't even put him in the top 20 (same with Lockett):
    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2022-wide-receiver-rankings

    Hill is elite, not Metcalf.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2023
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