Tua...''He's the greatest prospect ever''

If 80 to 90% of the win% is attributed to things other than the QB is it really a very good statistic in judging a QB?

 

Yes, with large enough sample size any non-zero percentage becomes as good a predictor as you want. It's the basis of hypothesis testing in statistics. Start with any non-zero (even 0.01%) difference between two distributions. If you increase sample size sufficiently (keep in mind that could be in the millions) then a statistical test will be able to detect a statistically significant (not explainable due to random variation alone) difference between the two distributions.

Same principle here. Only question is can you obtain those samples.

 

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nfl...triots-contracts-over-the-years/190695/?amp=1

Hmm, he wasn’t highest paid when with the Patriots. But I don’t wanna talk Brady in the Hawk Tua thread, as I said we don’t know the numbers and nobody insulted your golden child. Chill…

 

Did I hurt your feelings? And why are you bringing up Tua and calling him my golden child? Lol

Typically Brady homers and those who don’t understand how NFL contracts/salaries work, which is OK because they can be confusing, think that Brady was somehow giving up tons of money each season. That’s just not true.

“One GM suggested Brees could have helped New Orleans if he'd been amenable to taking deals similar to the ones Brady accepted. However, a team contract negotiator said the differences were mostly aesthetic, and that Brady didn't really take less money until the end, when he was looking to leave New England. The GM thought [Patrick] Mahomes and Buffalo's Josh Allen helped their teams by taking longer deals giving their teams greater flexibility, while other quarterbacks have put their teams in a relative bind by pushing for more money over a shorter run."

https://syndication.bleacherreport....really-take-less-money-until-the-end.amp.html


Here’s a really good break down comparing Brady to other top QB’s of his time:

“TLDR: The amount of "pay-cut" Brady took if any is wildly overstated, and mostly seems to arise from people not being able to distinguish average salary from peak salary.



NFL contracts are notoriously difficult to parse. Thus, while the Brady versus Manning versus Brees saga was ongoing, it was always pretty hard to evaluate myth of Brady as a huge martyr taking pay-cut after pay-cut. According to Bill, NE then foolishly squandered these pay-cuts on the defense and the line and playoff success and Superbowls instead of on flashy WRs.

But is any of that true? Lets look at the figures (Sportrac?).

Manning drafted 1st Overall in 1998, made $7.88MM/yr over his first 6 years (98-03). A period where he was a top3 QB 3 of these 6 years.

During his core IND years 04-11 he made $15.55MM/yr over the next 8 years with the IND before he left. A period where he was a top3 QB 7 of those 8 years and hurt the other.

He then went on to play for DEN for 4 years (12-15) for $19.25MM/yr and was a top3 QB the first 3 years before falling off a cliff in the 4th.

At no point (except for 1 season, we will get back to that) was he this "$35-40MM/year" albatross Bill likes to bring up.

Brady obviously started on a different path. Being a 6th round pick, but then seeing early playoff success, and not really becoming a dominant passer until say 05.

So if we take that 00-04 period Brady made $3.92MM/yr and was a top3 QB zero times in 5 seasons, but had 3 Superbowls! Honestly his earnings even here aren't that bad.

Then if we take core Brady on the Pats say 05-12 he is making $12.93MM/yr. He is a top 3 QB 6 of these 8 years, hurt once, and had an off year where he was 5th in 06.

That pay is ~$2.6MM/yr less than Manning during a similar timeframe with a similar cap regime. But some of that difference is Brady took a smaller raise earlier from NE in order to move some of his pay up into that first window so he didn't sit on the rookie deal.

13-19 with that Pats, Brady made $16.11MM/yr over a period of time where he was consistently a top10 QB, but was only top3 twice.

So basically the earnings look pretty much what you would expect from the situations. Manning was drafted higher, had a higher baseline of performance earlier in his career and got paid like an top3 QB sooner. Brady really has only asserted his superiority via longevity, and has gone on to reap exactly those additional dollars you would expect from that, getting an additional $56MM over the last two years with Tampa a period of which Manning's career was over, while Brady put in another top3 QB performance and won another SB.

Lets glance at a couple of the only other peers to see if that paints a different picture:

Brees on Chargers (01-05): $2.64MM/yr, borderline top10 QB his last two years.

Brees first 8 years on NO (06-13): $13.41MM/yr. top3 QB 5/8 years and top6 the other 3. This is ever so slightly more than Brady was making, but hardly a difference.

This does include 1 individual year where his pay was $40MM? Maybe this is what Bill is talking about? But there are also years his pay was next to nothing.What NE and the Pats did was make sure Brady's pay was spread very evenly. In fact I wonder if this is where the whole myth is from. Manning also had one singular year where his pay was $35MM, but the next year it was $665k, Brady's was never over $20MM until his last NE season, but it was also never under $8MM.

Brees on NO from 14-17: $18.56MM/yr, top3 twice, top6 twice.

And then his last three years his earnings have been right in line with Brady's.

Rivers is a little younger, so he might expect a little higher figures, but still similar. First 5 years (04-08): $7.4MM/yr. Next 8 (09-16): $17MM/yr And then his last 3 years on Chargers (17-19) $15MM/yr.

Ditto Big Ben. First 5 years (04-08): $8.9MM/yr. Next 8 (09-16): $13.85MM/yr And then his last 6 years (17-21) $21.8MM/yr.

Rodgers: First 5 years (05-09): $5.5MM/yr. Next 8 (10-17): $13.7MM/yr, though once again 1 year he made $38.25MM. And then his last 4 years (18-21) $31.5MM/yr.”

 

Yeah… too bad Tua can’t put up great numbers against great defenses like Allen, Mahomes, and Jackson do…

oh… wait:

Allen vs KC: 86 and 68 PR’s last season

Tua vs KC: 86 and 64 PR’s last season.

Jackson vs KC: 75 PR last season

————————————————————

Mahomes vs Eagles: 71 PR

Tua vs Eagles: 88 PR

There are more examples, but people who can’t use common sense will keep spouting nonsense…

 

DJ, I took his post as a “hey guys, settle down…we’re better than this”. Something I’ve also said in previous posts/threads.

Finheaven isn’t worth the sweaty film that accumulates on the bottom of my ball sack after a hot humid day in the Florida heat and humidity.

Let’s just be better than them. Have spirited discussions, yes…by all means but we don’t need to resort to name calling, belittling others and have to be right at all costs. That’s for EVERYONE here!

Remember, we are all fans of the only undefeated team in the modern NFL. That in itself trumps everything else!