Tua is not the Problem

It's wasn't an *** kicking from the Bengals. Got to remember we had to play that game after watching Tua getting taken away in an ambulance and even then still had a chance to win it. Also, stone hands Edmunds dropped a TD that most of this forum would have caught.

I think it's obvious we would have beaten Buffalo in the playoffs with Tua if the game played out how it did with the defence scoring and having those interceptions. Skylar went 18/45 for 1 TD and 2 INT's yet Tua posted a rating of 123.8 and 104.0 against the Bills this year. We all saw the open guys Skylar missed and I'm sure Tua would have seen them too.

I don't think we would have beaten the Bengals at their place in the playoffs with Tua. They are just a more complete team at this point, Miami had too many injuries.

 

About 6 or 7 drops too, who knows what happens if receivers actually catch the ball.

 

Homers have the memory of a goldfish. They will be declaring us super bowl contenders again this offseason and completely forget about what happened the year before. Same thing that has happened every year for the las 20 years.

 

Start of year Super Bowl ! I'm there

 

I remember Tua came back against the Steelers from a concussion and played HORRIBLY. I think the Steelers had like 5 dropped INTs. I wouldn't be surprised if he played worse than Skylar.

 

I preface this post with the statement that I am currently Tua NEUTRAL...

but this is a good point. It's a fools game to assume what would have happened had Tua played against the Bills. Especially since the last time we saw him in action on Christmas day, he single handedly lost the team the game with some of the worst interceptions I have ever seen. You could argue it was the concussion, and it probably was. But he would have been rusty, maybe still suffering the affects from said concussionS, and who knows where he would have been at mentally even if fully healthy.

 

Exactly

 

https://stathead.com/football/pcm_f...yrfrom=2022&player_id2=SmitAl03&p2yrfrom=2017

 

Tua could be a Foles or Smith. We don't know yet. Interesting comparison because all three were #1 in passer rating (2013, 2017, 2022) and the #2 that year was a true elite QB: Peyton, Brees and Mahomes.

We'll see. Whatever the case, overall year 3 was a very good year for Tua. Just need to prioritize him not getting injured so much.

 

That was Smith's 12th year in the league and his fifth with Andy Reid. He was at his ceiling and had a good season. Tua's in his third season and had one year in the current system. But cool stats, Bruh.

 

Yeah, the jury's out. We've seen how good he can be and since it was his first year in the system and with his roster, he could get better. With that being said, the best ability is always going to be availability, so concerns about his durability are legitimate. Hopefully, he puts that question to rest next season.

 

It was also his 1st full year with Tyreek Hill. That's how good Hill is. Turns mediocre into good. It was your dumb link comparing the two QBs, I'm just showing you how comparable they were with Smith actually having a better season than Tua.

 

Alex Smith literally played two more games than Tua and had 105 more throwing attempts, and only threw for two more touchdowns. Furthermore, Tua posted a higher Y/A and a higher passer rating.

Saying he had the better season is a stretch.

 

82 more completions and 105 attempts is a decent amount. Including running, Smith had ~780 more total yards. Higher completion %. He also played the fulled season, which is really the relevant part. I don't think it's much of a stretch. He didn't skip the difficult opponents like Tua did during the season, or miss the playoffs like Tua also did.

 

Here's Nick Foles 2nd season in the league:



https://stathead.com/football/pcm_f...yrfrom=2022&player_id2=FoleNi00&p2yrfrom=2013

 

If he played a full season, and still put up similar numbers to Tua as far as TD/Ints go, then he wasn't really that much more productive.

That's cool. But that's a year he was never able to replicate again, despite playing under Doug Pederson.

 

Tua will have an on air interview at some point during the Super Bowl weekend with none other than Florio and Simms.

 

You understand the point he's making about Foles one year IS that it was never replicated. That one season did not mean that Foles was anywhere near elite.

 

And if Tua crashed back down to Earth, we can have this conversation. But, so far, Tua has been steadily improving and has the same amount of seasons with double digit touchdowns as Foles despite only playing three years. At this point, the comparison is meaningless.

 

His new agent really trying to make that money.

 

Did you miss the last 1/3 of the season? You also ignore his point about not facing tough defenses.

This season IS an aberration, at this point. You are dismissing his first two seasons, for whatever reasons, and acting like this season is the true Tua.

I don't agree with that position.

 

How did I dismiss his first two seasons when I pointed out that he steadily improved?

 

Because he hasn't "steadily improved." He was average at best his first two seasons, disappointing the first couple gages this session, had several aberrant high stat games in the middle, and was a dumpster fire the last 4 or 5 games, except agaist Buffalo.

This season is currently an outlier.

 

Literally every year, he's improved in almost every single stat, including yards per attempt.

 

Tua had wins against
NWE 8-9
BAL 10-7
BUF 13-3
PIT 9-8
DET 9-8
CHI 3-14
CLE 7-10
HOU 3-13-1

combined record of 63-67-1. Tua didn’t build his wins against sub standard opposition. Outside of CHI and HOU every other opponent was at leadt competent.

His passer rating in his last 4 games was 79.7, 65.3, 104.0 and 80.8 for a simple average of 82.5. Seriously if that’s our QB having a dumpster fire stretch we’re in a pretty good position. If you took all the QBs in the league and measured their worst 4 game stretch Tua’s worst will be better than all but 5 or 6 QBs.

 

I think the problem with those 4 games is that Tua choked in 3 out of 4, and 2 of those 3 losses (excepting SF) were critical for postseason seeding. Tua's going to have to show he doesn't choke when it counts near the end of the season. That, and staying healthy enough to start and play well in the playoffs are the key things he still has to prove.

But otherwise, season 3 was fantastic given his disappointing first 2 years. After year 2 I was just about ready to give up on him and said he'd have to play at minimum 1 standard deviation above the mean for the stats to be similar enough to at least some elite QBs. Well he did that, and he also showed he could overcome serious adversity.

So he definitely warrants a 4th year of evaluation, though year 4 should be the last year. True elite QBs show it by then with almost no exception. On a slightly positive note Tua's at least different than Tannehill where it was statistically too unlikely after year 3 that he'd ever end up being anything more than slightly above average lol. With Tua there's still hope. But if this experiment fails, we're in for another long and excruciating wait.

 

If he repeats what he did this year, but with good health I’ll be happy. His college history suggests choking under pressure shouldn’t be an ongoing problem, but the future will tell us if there is any issue.

Just for comparison.
Josh Allen’s worst 4 game stretch.
Green Bay 75.1; Jets, 46.1; Vikings 78.6; Cleveland 100.4. Average 75.2
Lamar Jackson
Bills 63.0; Cinci 71.6; Giants 71.1; Browns 80.2. Average 71.5
Jalen Hurts
Chicago 64.6; Giants 65.1; Jets 112.2; 49ers 72.2. Average 78.5
Jared Goff
Pats 62.7; Dallas 71.2; Phins 108.1; Green Bay 78.5. Average 80.2

By my quick and nasty review of the top 10 QBs by passer rating only Pat Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Jimmy Garropolo and Geno Smith had their worst 4 game stretches with a passer rating above Tua’s worst 4 game stretch.

 

I'm not convinced, AT ALL, that Tua wool repeat this season without having two elite receivers.

Keep looking at stats, though, as if they mean something.

 

I'll say this, Tannehill wasn't given Tyreek Hill and Waddle in his third year. Lol.

 

I wonder what contract Geno Smith is going to get.

 

From his prior history it would seem Dr Faust has negotiated the contract for him.

 

I mean, would Marino be Marino without Duper and Clayton? When you have an accurate QB with a quick release, you focus on great receivers. You can't fault Tua for that.

I understand you're not convinced and honestly, you shouldn't be...none of us should. He had a good year, now he needs to have another one.

 

Marino was always Marino from day 1, even without duper and clayton. And Duper and Clayton were not as talented as Hill and Waddle.

 

March 2022: "Tyreek will be wasted with noodle arm Tua"
Feb 2023: "Tyreek would make anyone look good"

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Yup. I ain't forget.

 

You know who he didn't make look good?

Teddy and Skylar.

 

You can find stats to fit or dispute pretty much any narrative. My current evaluation of Tua is pretty much on point with the rankings below.

https://qbrankings.theringer.com/

 

Those are subjective rankings, not stats.

It's actually not easy to find stats that correlate well with win% supporting the idea that Tua somehow played well only against weak defenses. The stats are fairly clear there: he did well against a wide range of defensive strengths. That's true not just with EPA but also with opponent passer rating. The only real critique against such stats is small sample size. But that's not evidence against the statistical relationship, just that we need more data to see if it's likely to hold over time. It's a myth that Tua feasted only on weak opponents in 2022.

Conversely, Tua crapped the bed against some weak defenses. The argument you've tried to make doesn't really work for Tua in 2022.