Tua is not the Problem

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

Tua Tagovailoa ranks this season

Rank
Pass Rating 107.8 1st
Pass TD-INT 24-5 1st
Pass TD/Att 6.4% 1st
Yards/Att 8.63 1st
Yards/Comp 13.33 1st pic.twitter.com/ynDl6FZ674

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 18, 2022

I'm just curious...prior to this season with Tua breaking out, I wonder who was the last quarterback that led the league in all of these stats and what the exact figures were?

"RGF wrote:

I picked up on that right away. Especially after he commented on *his* own post almost immediately. He put me on ignore after I told him he has been exposed.

My first thought as well when the first post of a newly created account was in the exact style of an existing member who then comments straight after with "good post". That account got put on ignore straight away.

After reading the latest posts in this thread I've had to add another to the ignore list as I'm now convinced they aren't discussing things in good faith and they are actually a troll.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

I'm just curious...prior to this season with Tua breaking out, I wonder who was the last quarterback that led the league in all of these stats and what the exact figures were?

It's a bit of a trick question because Pass TD-INT isn't really a stat. That is, there are many different ways to calculate who is "first" in that category (are you taking a ratio, which isn't even mathematically defined if INT = 0, if taking a ratio do you care about total TD or INT, etc.). It's actually cleaner to list INT% instead of some ambiguous Pass TD-INT concept, but they didn't do that because Tua is #4 not #1 lol.

Anyway, regardless of these asterisks the answer is probably Nick Foles in 2013:

Rating 119.2
Pass TD-INT 27-2
TD/Att 8.5%
Yards/Att 9.1
Yards/Comp 14.2

Note that over the last 10 years there's been about a 5 point increase in average passer rating, so in 2022 that 119.2 is maybe more like 123 or 124. And Foles was #2 in INT%. So Foles is quite a bit more impressive than Tua. However, he only had 317 pass attempts, which is a bit on the low end for a season.

"StaleTacos wrote:

As in you applied and failed to get a job. And of course, you could have made more money in football if you climbed up in higher levels of the front office. Perhaps social interactions with people held you back.

I just have to say DAMN. I'm in the med device sector and utilize statistics all the time and have a hard time understanding some of the concept he puts forth. To say something like this is so way over the top. I didn't think you could lose more credibility then you had up to this point. Just stop. Please. You're making yourself look really, really foolish.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

Hitman, you're not fooling anyone. Lol

You guys are ridiculous.I have never in my life created a dummy account.

"Springveldt wrote:

My first thought as well when the first post of a newly created account was in the exact style of an existing member who then comments straight after with "good post". That account got put on ignore straight away.

After reading the latest posts in this thread I've had to add another to the ignore list as I'm now convinced they aren't discussing things in good faith and they are actually a troll.

Oh please, never have I created a dummy account. You just can't stand I agree with the guys opinion. Hate to break it to you but there are lot of dolphins fans who are not Tua nut huggers and hate Grier.

I actually have nothing against Tua except I think he is not an elite talent and has some limitations. I do hate Grier though with a passion. The guy is incompetent and I can't wait to see him go.

"Springveldt wrote:

My first thought as well when the first post of a newly created account was in the exact style of an existing member who then comments straight after with "good post". That account got put on ignore straight away.

After reading the latest posts in this thread I've had to add another to the ignore list as I'm now convinced they aren't discussing things in good faith and they are actually a troll.

He has been exposed and he can't handle it. It would do him a world of good to just admit it because it would at least explain the reason for his unknowledgeable, off the wall, idiotic, absurd, attention seeking posts.
We'll alll have a good laugh and move on.
Well, were having a good laugh anyway but right now its AT him and not WITH him.

Can we all just stop attacking each other. It's getting tiresome.

"cbrad wrote:

It's a bit of a trick question because Pass TD-INT isn't really a stat. That is, there are many different ways to calculate who is "first" in that category (are you taking a ratio, which isn't even mathematically defined if INT = 0, if taking a ratio do you care about total TD or INT, etc.). It's actually cleaner to list INT% instead of some ambiguous Pass TD-INT concept, but they didn't do that because Tua is #4 not #1 lol.

Anyway, regardless of these asterisks the answer is probably Nick Foles in 2013:

Rating 119.2
Pass TD-INT 27-2
TD/Att 8.5%
Yards/Att 9.1
Yards/Comp 14.2

Note that over the last 10 years there's been about a 5 point increase in average passer rating, so in 2022 that 119.2 is maybe more like 123 or 124. And Foles was #2 in INT%. So Foles is quite a bit more impressive than Tua. However, he only had 317 pass attempts, which is a bit on the low end for a season.

That Foles year was amazing.

"cbrad wrote:

And for offense alone 0.67 is a huge correlation. Half the game is defense.

For some reason I've never really thought about how strong that makes that correlation.

"Two Tacos wrote:

For some reason I've never really thought about how strong that makes that correlation.

To put that 0.67 in perspective, the correlation between points scored and win% is 0.7515. Now.. it's really not the correlation you want to look at it's the square of the correlation because that translates to percentage of variance explained (if there's a linear relationship between variables, which there is here.).

So 0.67^2 = 44.9% of variation in win% is explained by passer rating (a purely offensive stat), and 0.75^2 = 56% of variation in win% is explained by points scored. Furthermore, 44.9/56 = 80.2%. So about 4/5 of points scored is due to whatever is captured in passer rating. Shows you how little the run game matters in comparison.

Other tidbits. The correlation to win% for points allowed is -0.7337 which is a bit less in magnitude than for offense, showing that offense is slightly more important in the NFL game than defense. Note that percent of variation in win% explained for both offense and defense are over 50% (0.7337^2 = 53.8%). That's only possible if offense influences defense (same team) and vice versa, and they do. Offense and defense are correlated with each other at -0.3291 (i.e., better the offense the better the defense), and if you square that you see that 10.8% of variation in offense is explained by defense and vice versa.

"cbrad wrote:

It's a bit of a trick question because Pass TD-INT isn't really a stat. That is, there are many different ways to calculate who is "first" in that category (are you taking a ratio, which isn't even mathematically defined if INT = 0, if taking a ratio do you care about total TD or INT, etc.). It's actually cleaner to list INT% instead of some ambiguous Pass TD-INT concept, but they didn't do that because Tua is #4 not #1 lol.

Anyway, regardless of these asterisks the answer is probably Nick Foles in 2013:

Rating 119.2
Pass TD-INT 27-2
TD/Att 8.5%
Yards/Att 9.1
Yards/Comp 14.2

Note that over the last 10 years there's been about a 5 point increase in average passer rating, so in 2022 that 119.2 is maybe more like 123 or 124. And Foles was #2 in INT%. So Foles is quite a bit more impressive than Tua. However, he only had 317 pass attempts, which is a bit on the low end for a season.

Wasn’t my intent for it to be a trick question. I was genuinely curious the last time a quarterback led the league in all of those categories and what that team actually did during the season.

"cbrad wrote:

It's a bit of a trick question because Pass TD-INT isn't really a stat. That is, there are many different ways to calculate who is "first" in that category (are you taking a ratio, which isn't even mathematically defined if INT = 0, if taking a ratio do you care about total TD or INT, etc.). It's actually cleaner to list INT% instead of some ambiguous Pass TD-INT concept, but they didn't do that because Tua is #4 not #1 lol.

Anyway, regardless of these asterisks the answer is probably Nick Foles in 2013:

Rating 119.2
Pass TD-INT 27-2
TD/Att 8.5%
Yards/Att 9.1
Yards/Comp 14.2

Note that over the last 10 years there's been about a 5 point increase in average passer rating, so in 2022 that 119.2 is maybe more like 123 or 124. And Foles was #2 in INT%. So Foles is quite a bit more impressive than Tua. However, he only had 317 pass attempts, which is a bit on the low end for a season.

So Tua could be Nick Foles...did anyone ever think that he was a franchise QB? Lol

"resnor wrote:

So Tua could be Nick Foles...did anyone ever think that he was a franchise QB? Lol

Yes, Tua could be Nick Foles. Can't tell what will happen in future seasons, and maybe Tua craps it up later.

However.. there's no reason to deny Foles' accomplishments in 2013 saying "oh the defenses he faced were overrated" etc like so many are doing with Tua. It's the constant shifting of goalposts that's the problem. Just acknowledge Tua is playing like an elite QB this year and anti-Tua posters wouldn't get so much criticism for their stance.

"cbrad wrote:

Yes, Tua could be Nick Foles. Can't tell what will happen in future seasons, and maybe Tua craps it up later.

However.. there's no reason to deny Foles' accomplishments in 2013 saying "oh the defenses he faced were overrated" etc like so many are doing with Tua. It's the constant shifting of goalposts that's the problem. Just acknowledge Tua is playing like an elite QB this year and anti-Tua posters wouldn't get so much criticism for their stance.

You’re right, Tua could very well do a complete 180 next season and be a complete bomb…just like Wentz with the Eagles, Goff with the Rams, Stafford with the Rams, Murray with the Cardinals, etc, etc, etc…

But to reiterate your point, no one can deny Tagovailoa’s accomplishments this season. He leads the league in virtually every quarterback statistic and has shown he can play quarterback at an elite level. For anyone to deny this, they’re either delusional or have an agenda.

At the beginning of the season, what was everyone saying about Tua? This is a make or break season for him, right? Year 3, new head coach, all of these offensive weapons…if Tua can’t win with all of this, then it was time to move on from him. Everyone remembers that, right? Well he’s done it. He’s done what everyone said he had to do and as expected, it still isn’t good enough.

Sounds a lot like my first wife…no matter what I did, it was NEVER good enough

"hitman8 wrote:

Don't worry, we won't have to wait much longer to see what Tua is really made of. Buffalo, NE, and the Jets coming up are tough opponents with good defenses, and we are now in the playoff hunt. No more easy schedule and lousy defenses, now is when we get to see the real Tua.

lol

"resnor wrote:

Yes it is the same. You again have a QB with some elite traits, but with serious flaws, who seems to go missing in big games.

The people who largely argued for moving on from Tannehill are largely backing Tua. People like me who supported Tannehill are generally favoring moving on from Tua, and for me, it's because I realized how difficult it is to win with a limited QB and a terrible oline.

the ones who wanted to move on from tannehill were absolutely correct in their evaluation.

"djphinfan wrote:

the ones who wanted to move on from tannehill were absolutely correct in their evaluation.

That has absolutely nothing to do with anything, dj.

"cbrad wrote:

Yes, Tua could be Nick Foles. Can't tell what will happen in future seasons, and maybe Tua craps it up later.

However.. there's no reason to deny Foles' accomplishments in 2013 saying "oh the defenses he faced were overrated" etc like so many are doing with Tua. It's the constant shifting of goalposts that's the problem. Just acknowledge Tua is playing like an elite QB this year and anti-Tua posters wouldn't get so much criticism for their stance.

You continually misrepresent view points you disagree with. No one has said the defenses are overrated. Not one person.

What people are saying are the defenses Tua has faced on a whole and have played very well against are in the large part bad defenses.

"hitman8 wrote:

It was a combination of us being well prepared for the game and playing well, and Buffallo being overrated. I dont think buffalo is as good as everyone says.

It's mostly just a one man show.

"hitman8 wrote:

I've only really watched the buffalo defense twice this year when we played them. I was going off their rankings to say they are a good defense. Another reason why you should never put blind faith in numbers and stats.

Both their run D and pass D was pretty lousy last night just letting players run free on many occasions.

"StaleTacos wrote:

You continually misrepresent view points you disagree with. No one has said the defenses are overrated. Not one person.

Dude.. in the last 2 pages you have made up facts like no other poster. You just lie, lie and lie. This latest one added to the list.

You make other anti-Tua posters look bad. Problem is they're willingly associating themselves with you.

This thread (which I thought I declared closed about 15 pages ago) is no longer serving any type of constructive purpose. The same points of view are continuously being repeated over and over and worse, it’s devolved into an “us” vs “them” p1ssing contest.

No body has anything noteworthy to say.

"cbrad wrote:

Yes, Tua could be Nick Foles. Can't tell what will happen in future seasons, and maybe Tua craps it up later.

However.. there's no reason to deny Foles' accomplishments in 2013 saying "oh the defenses he faced were overrated" etc like so many are doing with Tua. It's the constant shifting of goalposts that's the problem. Just acknowledge Tua is playing like an elite QB this year and anti-Tua posters wouldn't get so much criticism for their stance.

I agree.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

This thread (which I thought I declared closed about 15 pages ago) is no longer serving any type of constructive purpose. The same points of view are continuously being repeated over and over and worse, it’s devolved into an “us” vs “them” p1ssing contest.

No body has anything noteworthy to say.

But posts like this are even worse. There's actually still a decent amount of discussion going on in here. Better to have it in one thread rather than a bunch of threads being started.

"TheHighExhaulted wrote:

The second quote he didn't say they were overrated, he said they played lousy.