Tua is not the Problem

Not sure if there are any stats for throwing into quadruple coverage, but there is one stat that gets you somewhat in the neighborhood: aggressiveness or AGG% (from Next Gen Stats), which is defined as the percent of passing attempts where the defender is within 1 yard of the ball at the time of completion or incompletion.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness

The average AGG% in 2022 was 15.02% with a standard deviation of 3.08%. Tua's AGG% = 14.5% so just a tad below average (the smaller the percentage generally the better). So there is evidence that Tua is not the type of QB that tends to throw balls too close to the defender, which would suggest he's also not abnormally high with rarer cases like throwing into triple or quadruple coverage.

 

My opinion on this is.
- NFL defenses are tough to pass on. No QB is ever going to have the luxury of always throwing to an open receiver, or even to single covered receivers. NFL QBs are required to complete passes to receivers who are double/triple/quadruple covered.
- The best trait a QB has for avoiding interceptions in situations where he is throwing into multiple coverages is accuracy, specifically being able to place the ball so that the defender(s) has the lowest chance of breaking up/intercepting the pass.
- Tua is one of the most accurate passers in terms of ball placement in the league. I believe that if he can have a long career he will be remembered as being one of the most accurate QBs in league history.
- There are stats which try to measure ‘should have been intercepted” passes. The top (worst) places on those lists are dominated by scattergun QBs who often have years with high actual interceptions and very accurate QBs who are good at threading the needle who usually have very low actual interceptions year after year. This tells you that not all ‘risky passes’ are equally risky for all QBs.

The question isn’t should a QB throw to a multiple covered receiver, which carries the unspoken assumption that there is a single covered or open receiver to throw to instead.
The real questions are
How often does a QB throw into multiple or tight coverages? (Cbrad has answered this as Tua was slightly below average last year)
What is their TD/interception ratio on such throws? (I haven’t seen any specific numbers on this but given Tua’s overall TD/Int ratio and my recollection of Tua making many TD passes thrown into tight coverage I’m betting Tua had a much better than average rate in 2022).

 

The Bridgewater should have done just as good as Tua argument is weak. Bridgewater did play better than Tua when he substituted him in Cincy, but he never stayed healthy enough to put together anything and build a rhythm with the offense, and Thompson was a seventh round pick, nobody has ever suggested Tua cannot outplay a seventh rounder.

This offense was built specifically for Tua, its no wonder it did not function as well went he went down and his backup could not stay healthy.

 

It's like you don't actually understand (and therefore mean) what you write.

Your premise (ridiculous as it is) was that two QBs have the identical physical and mental traits and that one throws a single pass into quadruple coverage and the other doesn't. I asked about whether theoretical on the field performance differences would change your opinion.

I'll make it even simpler. What if that annual throw in to quadruple coverage results in a TD pass, every single time?

The point is that your absolute opinion based on no real information is easy to expose as silly.

 

I never said your opinion was wrong. I challenged whether it was relevant. It is a nonsensical opinion unless the said behavior is outside the norm. Plain and simple. Pretty incredible that you don't understand that.

I have tried to explain it to you to no avail.

 

You should know..... you have been asked, repeatedly and are still at zero.

 

Because it was another one of his lame attempts to disparage Tua. You are correct that nobody should raise it unless it were an issue. That is how EVERYONE OTHER THAN RESNOR looks at it. I tried to convince him with simple explanations. I tried with even sillier examples (I claimed that I don't want my QB throwing into 11 person coverages). He hangs on to the opinion and continues to restate it because he understands that the implication (despite his denials) is that it is an issue for Tua. Otherwise, as you correctly ask, "WTF would you raise it?"

 

Exactly. This is now three people (at least) that have all tried to explain the same thing to resnor.

 

This is a statistic that is interesting as a tool to support other things such as the throwing to coverage discussion (and the statement below) but is difficult to draw conclusions on in isolation. It can show a broad spectrum of things from (a) the QB is making poor decisions and throwing to covered receivers to (b) the receivers are regularly getting poor separation.

This blows away the argument over Tua throwing to "wide open receivers."

 

Explain how exactly. What changes did McDaniel make that are specifically for Tua and not things that apply to all QBs that can execute a timing-based passing offense combined with the RPO elements.

IMO, this is the style offense that McDaniel wants to run. Tua just happens to be excellent at running it. The coach has said as much here -

https://www.al.com/sports/2023/04/dolphins-coach-on-tua-tagovailoa-were-sitting-on-a-gold-mine.html

He did not review the film of Tua and come to the conclusion that he needed to scale back. On the contrary, he saw immediately that Tua's talents were ready to be maximized with the right players around him. So, Parker was gone and Hill was in.

Coach also specifically dispels the idea that Tua cannot throw to the outside. He highlights how good Tua was at it and how much more often he did it compared to other QBs.

 

This was just a fluff piece according to these guys. McDaniel is lying about the film. These guys eyes saw different.

Seriously. This is what they went with.

 

Pretty elaborate ruse by the coach......

 

Let's see here...
This offense was built specifically for Tua.
Tua excelled in this offense .
Tua is inadequate because the receivers played extremely well in this offense that was specifically designed for Tua .

Is it any wonder most people find these posters foolish and funny. ?

 

He's got nerve if you ask me.

 

You have owned the participants in this debate

Take a bow, well done..

If anyone comes back and tries to re engage their just haters of the qb at this point

 

I may be wrong but don’t GOOD head coaches build an offense around the strength of the quarterbacks?

 

So much so that McDaniel didn't even reverse the freaking plays when Skylar/Teddy was in. He had them throwing against their bodies. Pretty dumb.

 

Of course they do its called team chemistry. A coach designs a system based on his players strengths and its up to the players to buy in and execute.
Except Tua, of course.
He has no team chemistry, he didn't execute this offense ( that was designed specifically for him ) , at an elite level and he didn't buy into McDaniels system.
Not because of his QB abilities or lack thereof, but because he's Tua.

 

Hey, on a serious note, you're running out of material.
Some of your posts are just for laughs, I get it, but this last post of yours is definitely " DELETE" worthy.
Even by your standards this one has to go.

 

They were haters from day one but they thought they were fooling someone.

 

The adults are having a conversation sweetie.

 

Conversation???

You post endless nonsense/jokes and get called out on it on a daily basis. If that's your idea of a conversation then that's comical also.
You've been exposed, just own up to it.

 

WTF? You say Bridgewater played better and then turn around and say that it's no wonder the offense didn't function as well when he went down. Make up your mind here. Bridgewater did not play better than Tua...EVER at any point. He had a decent third quarter against the Bengals and then in the fourth quarter he threw a pick that went the other way and sank us when the game mattered the most. Bridgewater SUCKED and you simply cannot argue that without sounding like a halfwit with an agenda.

 

The troll is now siding with the scam that was dirtwater

 

When you're watching the game, and the throw makes you go WTF, that's the kind of throw we're taking about. Obviously, there are going to be times when you are forced to force it. Like when you're surviving time is running out. Thise kind of three aren't the ones I'm talking about not wanting my QB to attempt.

But you certainly shouldn't be throwing into those sorts of coverages outside of a very few situations. A throw into triple or quadruple coverage is extraordinarily high risk.

 

LOL.....

 

This is something folks like you and I know. Every one of these great quarterbacks are in a system that is designed to their strengths and skills sets, but to hear some of these posters, its as if these quarterbacks are out there playing sandlot football and its them and them alone that are successful.

Not taking anything away from Mahomes, but can anyone here truly and honestly say he would have the same success had he been drafted by the Bears instead of Trubisky? Andy Reed is a phenomenal head coach with an incredible offensive mind who set Mahomes up for success.

Its the same philosophy with Tua in Miami. He was only going to go so far under the tutelage of Flores, or lack there of. McDaniel bein he smart offensive minded head coach that he is developed an offense tailored to his skills set

 

The unbelievable part is that the debates usually happen before the QB has achieved some success. Usually the debate is raging in the opposite direction. The supporters of the QB are claiming that the supporting cast and or coaching is not good enough to properly evaluate the QB. The detractors usually want to make it all about the QB. All kinds of claims about talent levels on teams not really being that different. Good QBs elevate the play of players around them, etc, etc.

Here we have a QB that led the league in many important measures of QB play and was a legit MVP candidate until injuries hit. Now these guys are claiming it is not about the QB. It is only the supporting cast that matters. Just unbelievable.

Of course the real answer is that the supporting cast/coaching is important but it only creates the opportunity for the QB to excel. The excelling still has to be done by the QB. A terrible supporting cast can eliminate the opportunity to excel.

A great pass play involves the play call, blocking, receivers getting open, the QB making the right read and throw, and the receiver catching the ball. A bad play call can prevent that. Bad blocking can prevent that. A bad route or drop can prevent that. A great QB is powerless in those situations.

If all the other things line up perfectly, the QB still needs to make the throw. All the other things simply create the opportunity. Tua did not have consistent opportunities in 2020 and 2021. Last season we saw what he can do with opportunities.

 

So, he changes his original post from, "please sit the next few plays out" , to ":sweetie"
Perhaps there are multiple secrets behind your mask.

What's your take on Will McDonald IV ?

 

Bro. You are super obsessed with me. I'm just not that into you. Not all that interesting. I'm sorry.

 

Actually I'm super obsessed with the Jets. I was thinking - who better to converse with on the subject than a die-hard, extremely knowledgeable, rabid fan of the Meadowlands Monsters like yourself.
But no, you rather talk about Tua.
Thanks...for nothing.

 

Correct. In the Tua thread, I prefer to talk about Tua. You prefer to talk about me and make personal attacks. Grow up.

 

Which Jets forum do you partake in ?
We'll have to discuss our squad there.

 

Remember when Tua's 5th year option was picked up and people here said it was because they don't trust Tua long term, and not because they haven't worked out a long term deal yet.

Well, Burrow and Herbert's 5th year options were also picked up.

 

It’s become the new business model for the league…pick up your rookie quarterback’s 5th year option, securing him for an additional year at a significant cost savings.

Seeing how other positions are beginning to demand higher and higher salaries, it only makes financial sense if a team wants to keep the nucleus of a team together.

 

Different rules for different players

 

Hurts got an extension. The difference between Burrow/Herbert and Tua is those teams are actually actively working on extensions. No one (including the team) is reporting they are working on a Tua extension. Not really similar.

 

The Eagles were stupid signing Hurts so soon. Jury is still out on his durability as well.

 

Hurts was a second round pick so there wasn't a fifth year option.

 

Don't let the facts get in the way of a good narrative.....