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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

  1. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    He's gone after the shiny new free agents in the past. Mike Wallace and Suh come to mind. I think the Flores hire was more Grier then it was Ross. To me Ross seems like kind of a doofus, more of a fan as opposed to an owner.
    Mike Wallace makes an 80 yard house call with a prime Ben Roethlisberger throwing him the ball and right away, Ross wants Mike Wallace in Miami. Only problem is that we didn't have any semblance of an offensive line when we made the Wallace signing. Ross puts the cart before the horse.
     
  2. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this. With a better offensive line and an improved run game it's not unreasonable to suggest that Tua should and could do much better.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I have a feeling that a lot of people just don't understand the run game in the NFL. It's not about a RB being able to bulldoze a defense or outrun them to the corner. It's about creating running lanes and building up momentum.

    The most common run play is off-guard on the strong side of the field. The tackle blocks out, the guard blocks down, and the center, TE or the weak side guard goes to the 2nd level to chip that linebacker. If your guard/tackle execute even a slight block (which would be holding it for about 1 second), it's a 3-4 yard gain EVERY SINGLE TIME, with any RB in the league. And if that center gets to the LB, it's a 7-8 yard gain. And if your receivers do their job, any 7+ yard gain could be a TD.

    To create that hole, your offensive lineman has to fire off the ball, stay low, and make contact on the correct side. If the run is coming off your right hip, then your left shoulder pad should make contact with the defender. Again, this take about 1 second, it's one step, and what happens after that is almost pointless because the RB is already past you. A DOMINANT run block is literally taking a step, staying low for leverage and having your shoulder on the correct side for the play to work. If you get positioning, that defensive player has to take 3 steps to beat you and by then, the RB is at the 2nd or 3rd level.

    Sounds easy, right?

    It's not exactly, because you need speed, balance, strength and leverage. But it's not hard either if you have the right type of lineman out there with the correct stance and technique. And guys, I can't stress this enough, it's not rocket science to teach technique. I've told you literally everything you need to know above. Yet this group can't do it consistently, they just can't, and it's because of a lack of talent. Jackson isn't strong enough. Eichenberg doesn't have the technique down. Hunt does pretty well, but it takes two blocks to create a hole.

    This is both a coaching issue and a player issue. And we can't run consistently until it's fixed. But here's the thing, pass blocking is even worse...we don't even try to pass block most of the time (hence RPO...we run block on passes).
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2022 at 2:24 PM
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  4. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Great post, KeyFin. Football is a dynamic game. Effective blocking in a good rushing attack draws additional defensive help. If you can only get 3.5 YPC with 5/6 OL on 4 defenders, that makes it much more difficult to pass because you will have seven defenders against 3-4 receivers. You HAVE to open those holes to keep defenses honest. Man, I wish we had a fair chance to run play action but DCs are no doubt telling their LBs and safeties not to bite.
     
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  5. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    The problem is when you get the playoffs you are playing teams that can score.While it's great to have a rushing attack and every team needs one the QB needs to make big time throws My question is can Tua with his limited arm strength do this against playoff teams especially in weather?
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2022 at 1:57 PM
  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Which is why I think Duke Johnson had 100 yards against the Pats.
     
  7. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I mean, you can look at it two ways:
    1. Tua is not the problem. He's accurate, moves well in the pocket and usually makes the smartest throw.
    2. Tua is the problem. He needs a team around him to win; he can't do it alone like a Mahommes or a Wilson.
    Both are completely true statements. Tua is not the guy who's going to drop 400 yards on your defense while his team is lackluster around him. But to be fair, most QB's in this league do not have that potential...especially when you're talking about doing it consistently week after week. So it's just a matter of what you want to do on offense, how you want to attack the field, and what you find value in.

    However, I will say that those yelling "Tua sucks" are delusional...he's a pretty good NFL-caliber starting QB. But he's not Payton Manning and he will never will be. Hopefully people realize that's not an insult; 99.9% of the QBs in the next five decades won't be Peyton Manning either. Maybe one emerges, but the odds are highly against it (and no, it won't be Herbert).

    The real problem is setting the bar that ridiculously high for a young QB in the first place.
     
  9. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    I agree with Flores.I also don't think the Pats will win one with Matt Jones either.Tua and Jones both have the same weak arm.Jones benefitted from great Def and running game but I didn't see him win any games when the D played poorly or likewise with the Rb game.
     
  10. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    We had 20 starting QBs in 20 years. We've had perhaps eight decent seasons from QBs in that time. Tua might not be Dan Marino. He might not be Peyton Manning. He may not be Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow. None of that matters because he's the quarterback we have, not the one we wish we had. "I don't like our QB because he's not great" is odd for a franchise that's lucky to have a decent QB under center.

    It's silly to say "Tua's not good because *Justin Herbert* is better", but that's what we constantly hear. Some will say, Tua can't lob a 70 yard pass in spite of the fact that Pro Football Focus recorded a 70 yard incompletion as the longest pass in NFL history or that typically, the longest completed pass in a given week is 55-60 yards. It's puffery, just something to steer the convo away from substantive discussion.

    Then, we discuss options, the only option is $45 million DeShaun Watson at a cost of a reported three first and two second round picks because Burrow and Herbert are taken and nobody else is going to send us a QB who's better than Tua.

    The whole convo is shaded in dishonesty because it's possible for a player to be good while another is better. It's also possible that a young player will develop into a very good or great player if he has the right team in place around him. None of that is a radical concept.

    Finally, my biggest problem with Flo has always been how quick he is to give up on players and coaches. He gave up on Lawson, Flowers, and Van Noy after a season. Neither shined in Miami but none of them was a liability on the field. He trades or switches out coaches every offseason. I'm okay with not being satisfied, but that level of personnel shift is bound to create a problem because everybody is aware that you're only as valuable as you showed in your worst game. So it's no surprise that he gave up on Tua because that's who he is. It's just surprising that that was the hill he was willing to die on. What happens when he gets to New York and Daniel Jones is his QB? Is he going to have a fit when the price for DeShaun Watson is prohibitive?*

    I'm coolest with people who say they just don't believe Tua's the answer. It's subjective and for 31 teams every season, their QB is not the answer, so they're probably right. But to suggest that he's the problem is disingenuous.

    *Bad example because the Giants have the 5th & 7th picks and they'd gladly trade them to upgrade.
     
  11. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Something like the Titans are doing/did with Mariota and now Tannehill?

    I dont care what stats suggest or even if @TheGuy or @cbrad disagrees with me but id Miami builds a running game the P/A stuff with Tua could work like it works in Tennessee with Tannehill....

    Yea I know stat nerds would disagree with me and tell me "the run game has no correlation with the PA" but I beg the differ. You can't tell me defenses play the same way with Henry on the backfield versus a guy like Myles Gaskins.
     
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  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Henry is probably an exception to the rule, but the rule is that the correlation is near zero between play action success (measured by PA yards per pass play) and all kinds of rushing metrics including 1) rush attempts, 2) rush percent, and 3) rush success rate.

    Stats are pretty clear on this so you need to interpret this by saying maybe 95% or more of all RBs in the NFL won't affect play action success, but that doesn't mean there are no exceptions, and I agree Henry is as close as you'd get to one.

    Regarding resnor's point, I think the more important part is having a decent OL, especially for pass protection. No question that helps the QB. The rushing success is less important statistically speaking but it's definitely helpful in short yardage situations in our case (too many times we can't make the 1st down). Correlation between rushing Y/A and win% is only 0.1628, but it's not zero.
     
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  13. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Dude lol...it either does or does not. Coaches, players around the league always talk about it.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It generally doesn't. That doesn't mean there are no exceptions. This is a case where coaches and players are wrong, and demonstrably so.
     
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  15. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    So when is the case made? And how do you know?
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't understand your question. It's generally been common for people (including coaches) to argue play action success is related to either rush% or rush success. You yourself said they do. But the stats show near zero correlation.
     
  17. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Why is Henry the excepation though? And how do you go on about it saying so? Since stat say otherwise...
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Oh.. because you saw his effect on Tannehill's rating for a long time. That was statistically significant for awhile. Not sure if it still is (I'd have to go back and calculate), but at least it's something that was looking like an exception to the rule.
     
  19. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    The frustration people have is Herbert was sitting there for the taking and once again the dolphins picked the wrong player.
    Trust me you be hearing this not from just this fan base but from the mainstream Nfl media also for years.
    The whole rebuild was to find a franchise qb not a mediocre one but that is what we ended up with.
    Even if we build a great offensive line and run game and continue to play our style of defence I never see Tua being good enough to beat the elite Qbs in the playoffs.
    So not the problem but I don't think he is the answer either.
     
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  20. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Tua is certainly a big part of the problem.
    Picking him was the problem. For sure.
    We probably would have had two playoff appearances already had we chose the right Qb. Now, this guy has gotten a head coach fired. Certainly a problem and if we go into next year with him as our starting QB, believe me, the problem will continue. They just can’t. So shocked some people still want him to start. Amazing. Sad.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2022 at 5:06 PM
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  21. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    If Tua doesn't miss four games, Miami is in the playoffs. We need to see him with a competent offensive line and offensive coaching staff. Not co-offensive coordinators and a historically bad offensive line.
     
  22. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    That happened. It has nothing to do with whether we have a serviceable or worthy Qb. It's silly to have a discussion that this guy must suck if that guy is better. Are Niners, Jests and Bears fans pissing and moaning that they could have drafted Mac Jones, who had a better season than Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields? Is it time to move on?
     
  23. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    …and why did he miss those games?
    ..and how did he end the season for the last two years? I wish it weren’t true, but I just can’t delude myself. It is what it is.
     
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  24. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    He missed those games because of an incompetent offensive line letting the Bills tee off on him.
     
  25. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Sure and what about the five major injuries in college with three serious surgeries, playing with an OL loaded with talent?
     
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  26. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

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    Well the coach wanted him so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    I want him to start because there probably aren't any other good options. 2023 draft is their best option.
     
  27. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    No because Matt jones is way overrated and only wins because of great running game and D.He is no SB qb either.
    But seriously do you think this team will ever win a SB with Tua?Your own post says Flores didn't think so.
     
  28. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Same here and I think he could become better the Tannehill (if he stays healthy), but I don’t know if that’s good enough to win a SB.
     
  29. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I bet you didn't think Brad Johnson, Nick Foles, Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer were Super Bowl quarterbacks. You probably would have considered Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck and Warren Moon to be Super Bowl quality QBs. You would have been wrong in all regards. Meanwhile, the GOAT #13 missed being a Super Bowl QB the last 15 years of his career and Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers only made it once.

    "We can't win a Super Bowl with this guy" is a trope based on a logical fallacy. Flo is a scrub for believing it and for that alone, I'm glad he's gone. You can believe when he interviewed, he never said "I can only win with a top-5 QB".
     
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  30. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Oh yes please do research and let me know




    Lol
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No, I'm saying that if Tua had more than 1.5 seconds to throw, downfield routes might have time to open up. If he had a decent run game, then teams would have to respect the run, and would allow me downfield routes to open up.

    PA might be more effective, but the stats certainly show that you don't need a stellar run game to effective PA...you just have to have a commitment to the run game.
     
  32. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    No point in going back to early 2000s as the rules have evolved even more for the offence to succeed.
    As for Foles and Flaccio sure it happens but it happens way more often than not if he have franchise QB.
    Tua needs perfect everything for this to happen plus home field advantage as we have already seen how he plays in cold weather.
    You really think that is going to happen?
    This guys best chance to succeed is to end up in Atlanta or new Orleans where he play 10 games a year in a dome
     
  33. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Justin Herbert missed out on the playoffs this season after finishing with a 9-7 record. What does he need to succeed? LOL.
     
  34. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    He's going to say his defense stinks. Tua's offense stinks but that doesn't matter.
     
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  35. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Well, Tua is largely responsible for the offense.The defense did it's job. If Herbert had this defense to play with we would surely be in the playoffs and probably even win a playoff game or two. Herbert also would not have as many problems playing with a poor offensive line as Tuna does. He proved that last year when he had the worst offensive line in the leugue.
     
  36. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    "There's always an excuse for Tua". But Herbert has a worse career record and finished the season sitting right next to Tua at 9-7 after losing a must-win game late in the season. I'm wondering why Justin couldn't ****checks notes**** "carry his team"?

    BTW: I have no hate for Herbert. Love him and wish him all the success in the world. But his place in the conversation ends with the 2020 draft. Suggesting he's better than Tua is fine, IMO. He looks like he is. But it doesn't mean Tua's not good for Herbert to be better.
     
  37. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Herbert did carry his team in large part. Their defense was atrocious. Herbert did his part. Meanwhile here in Miami it's the other way around. It's the defense that was carrying Tua and the offense.
     
  38. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Can you agree that he has way more to work with as far as skill position players go?
     
  39. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Herbert played an amazing game and you know it to get into the playoffs.The coach lost that game.
    I have never seen a qb pick up that many clutch 4 downs to bring them back into the game.
     
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  40. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    It's the defense. It's the coaching. It's everyone else. I just wonder why the same doesn't apply for Tua.
     
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