Tua is not the Problem

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

The name of this thread is "Tua Is Not The Problem", not "Is Tua The Answer?".

THE problem is Ross. But asking whether Tua is "a" problem is for me the same as asking whether he is "the" solution at QB. QB is too important to the team to just make do with average or slightly above average, so if Tua is at best a slightly above average QB (yet to be truly seen, but right now he's on track for that) then I'd say he is "a" problem.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

When I watch Dolphins games, very rarely do I think to myself This team would be fantastic with a better quarterback... But I frequently think This quarterback might be good with a better team...

I think we'd be legitimate SB contenders if we had Aaron Rodgers for example.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

It's a fun discussion and I hope it's all being conducted in good spirits.

This discussion about Tua is WAY more peaceful than the Tannehill debates in 2016-2018. That was really ugly back then.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

Two points:
1. Saying that Tua is the first player to do something since Marino isn't comparing him to Marino; it's comparing him to everybody since. Nobody in his right mind puts Tua on par with Marino. IMO, a lot of folks on the anti-Tua side of the equation grab things like that to avoid talking about what he does well. When, in the midst of multiple 100+ passer rated games, someone argued "I don't like him because he can't throw a 70 yard pass", it's clear that there's nothing he can do to win that person over.
2. The name of this thread is "Tua Is Not The Problem", not "Is Tua The Answer?". There has been scads of posters who think the quarterback is the worst player on a team with arguably the worst line in the NFL, running backs incapable of averaging 3.5 YPC, and receivers who are among the league's leaders in in drops. Unless Justin Herbert can block for himself, magically make his running backs find holes, or convince his receivers to not drop catchable balls, I'd suggest that Tua is not the problem. Is he the answer? Beats me. I've posted as much as anybody on this thread and I don't think I've once called him elite. I just don't think he's bad.

When I watch Dolphins games, very rarely do I think to myself This team would be fantastic with a better quarterback... But I frequently think This quarterback might be good with a better team...

It's a fun discussion and I hope it's all being conducted in good spirits.

Yeah, I agree, Tua isn't the problem. He's also not the answer. Like I said earlier, I hope Grier pulls his head out if his ass, and gets an oline and RB and at least one starting quality receiver so that this offense can function.

"cbrad wrote:

THE problem is Ross. But asking whether Tua is "a" problem is for me the same as asking whether he is "the" solution at QB. QB is too important to the team to just make do with average or slightly above average, so if Tua is at best a slightly above average QB (yet to be truly seen, but right now he's on track for that) then I'd say he is "a" problem.

I think we'd be legitimate SB contenders if we had Aaron Rodgers for example.

This discussion about Tua is WAY more peaceful than the Tannehill debates in 2016-2018. That was really ugly bad then.

I actually agree with every point here. We would absolutely have been SB contenders with Rodgers.

"Two Tacos wrote:

Too funny. Yeah, they were padding that meanlingless passer rating stat! It's not like short high % passes are the staple of many Offensive passing schemes. Fun stat time Herbet 2021 air yards per attempt 4.3, Tua air yards per attempt 4.1 and that scrub Mahomes 3.8. Which doesn't mean that is the ranking of QBs, it just means your point is not so pointed.

Do you even watch the games or just look at stats? Again, the degree of difficulty on the majority of Tua's throws was very low. More credit should be given to the coordinators for scheming up tons of easy on schedule throws.

When you watch Herbert play you see him regularly stretching the defense, going off schedule when necessary, and making much harder throws overall.

Stop paying so much attention to misleading stats and go by what you are actually seeing on the field. Tus, as he has been his whole career, is more a product of the system than actual talent. Talent wise he is just an average to above average QB, not elite.

That's ultimately the point. Are you satisfied with a QB who is just an above average talent?

"cbrad wrote:

THE problem is Ross. But asking whether Tua is "a" problem is for me the same as asking whether he is "the" solution at QB. QB is too important to the team to just make do with average or slightly above average, so if Tua is at best a slightly above average QB (yet to be truly seen, but right now he's on track for that) then I'd say he is "a" problem.
We'll agree to disagree. Look at Jacksonville for an example of what can happen with talent at QB and a dearth of talent around him.

I think we'd be legitimate SB contenders if we had Aaron Rodgers for example.
We'll agree to disagree. We'd be better if Rodgers could stay off the trainer's table, but he's never had a cast like we're rolling out each Sunday.

This discussion about Tua is WAY more peaceful than the Tannehill debates in 2016-2018. That was really ugly back then.
It's all good. I'm pulling for Tennessee now because of Tannehill.

I understand your point and respectfully disagree (for the most part), amigo.

"resnor wrote:

Yeah, I agree, Tua isn't the problem. He's also not the answer. Like I said earlier, I hope Grier pulls his head out if his ***, and gets an oline and RB and at least one starting quality receiver so that this offense can function.

It's all opinion. The difference between us is I'm willing to give him the chance to develop and some of you are quicker to flush someone who doesn't come out on top of his game. San Diego replaced Drew Brees with a great QB, not knowing that Drew Brees was a great QB in his own right*.

*And NO, I'M NOT COMPARING TUA TO DREW BREES, so please, let's not go down that rabbit hole.

"We would have been Super Bowl Contenders with a league MVP, Hall of Fame QB in massive "chip on shoulder" mode isn't really a bold take. You could say that for like 4/5ths of the league.

The biggest problem surrounding Tua (OL aside ... ) is the availability of an elite upgrade. If Rogers is available to us, I'd say we should go for it, but I suspect we aren't super high on his list even if he decides to leave GB. Maybe that changes if we bring in Hackett or Pederson?

Outside of him, your other choice is Watson and that's just ... ew.

You may as well upgrade the line and WR/RB groups while bringing in a better (hopefully) coaching staff across all offensive spots and give Tua that third year to take a BIG step forward or tread water. At that point, you have a stronger looking 2023 QB class coming out.

"texanphinatic wrote:

"We would have been Super Bowl Contenders with a league MVP, Hall of Fame QB in massive "chip on shoulder" mode isn't really a bold take. You could say that for like 4/5ths of the league.

The biggest problem surrounding Tua (OL aside ... ) is the availability of an elite upgrade. If Rogers is available to us, I'd say we should go for it, but I suspect we aren't super high on his list even if he decides to leave GB. Maybe that changes if we bring in Hackett or Pederson?

Outside of him, your other choice is Watson and that's just ... ew.

You may as well upgrade the line and WR/RB groups while bringing in a better (hopefully) coaching staff across all offensive spots and give Tua that third year to take a BIG step forward or tread water. At that point, you have a stronger looking 2023 QB class coming out.

I'm surprised we haven't heard Russell Wilson's name mentioned yet. He's a turbo-charged older version of Tua. Of course, he wants out of Seattle because they refused to prioritize his OL, so we're probably the last place he wants to play, as well.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

I'm surprised we haven't heard Russell Wilson's name mentioned yet. He's a turbo-charged older version of Tua. Of course, he wants out of Seattle because they refused to prioritize his OL, so we're probably the last place he wants to play, as well.

He is staying.

"resnor wrote:

Here's the actual point:

Do you believe that Tua is the answer, and the Dolphins shouldn't be trying to upgrade the QB position?

I believe that we haven't seen enough to say "Tua is not the answer". The opposite is true as well though- it's just so darn hard to evaluate a QB in an offense this bad.

In terms of whether or not we should try to upgrade, for me that is an easy "NO". There's nobody that stands out in the draft and I don't want another career-average journeyman to step in. Also, I don't want all the drama associated with Watson, even though he's a clear upgrade. So there's really only 2 names that are a clear upgrade, Wilson or Rodgers, but neither would want to come here because of the line, the talent, the owner, etc.

That's how I get to the opinion that there's nobody available that's better than Tua. Now, if you're talking about drafting a prospect in the 2nd or 3rd round, I'm all for that...but I'm always all for that anyway.

"hitman8 wrote:

Do you even watch the games or just look at stats? Again, the degree of difficulty on the majority of Tua's throws was very low. More credit should be given to the coordinators for scheming up tons of easy on schedule throws.

When you watch Herbert play you see him regularly stretching the defense, going off schedule when necessary, and making much harder throws overall.

Stop paying so much attention to misleading stats and go by what you are actually seeing on the field. Tus, as he has been his whole career, is more a product of the system than actual talent. Talent wise he is just an average to above average QB, not elite.

That's ultimately the point. Are you satisfied with a QB who is just an above average talent?

Stats are the results of what happend on the field, not your memories of what happend. What actually happend. First Tua is getting his stats "padded" by only throwing short. So I point out some other QBs throwing almost as short or shorter, and now he is the proverbial "system QB". You'd think a fan base that saw Montana win Superbowls when Dan couldn't, and that saw Brady become Brady in the division would have better takes. Throws are hard for other reasons than how fast or far the ball travels.

I do agree that Tua is currently average. Absolutely has to improve. There's nothing that shows he cannot. That's the point. It doesn't matter that he isn't Herbert. If he becomes elite in the NFL, Herberts game won't be his game. It's going to accuracy, quick decisions and quick throws, his elite pocket presence/movement, and that release. It's going to be the speed that he can go from riding a hand off to setting and firing a ball exactly where he wants it to go. That's why Herbert is a terrible comp for him. I get that the choice was between the two, but that's over. Decision made, there were multiple TV shows covering it if you don't believe me. The Chargers are not going to swap now.

People are out on a 2nd year QB that was average running an RPO heavy offense, that could not run, that could not pass block, throwing to a rookie WR and Gesicki. If Tua does continue to develop, you guys shouldn't even be permitted to make crow eating posts (that's a joke resnor, post what you want).

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

I'm surprised we haven't heard Russell Wilson's name mentioned yet. He's a turbo-charged older version of Tua. Of course, he wants out of Seattle because they refused to prioritize his OL, so we're probably the last place he wants to play, as well.

He would be an option and I've mentioned him before, but I haven't heard any link to us whatsoever. Speculation is NYG due to the media market and potentially it being Ciara's preference.

"Two Tacos wrote:

Stats are the results of what happend on the field, not your memories of what happend. What actually happend. First Tua is getting his stats "padded" by only throwing short. So I point out some other QBs throwing almost as short or shorter, and now he is the proverbial "system QB". You'd think a fan base that saw Montana win Superbowls when Dan couldn't, and that saw Brady become Brady in the division would have better takes. Throws are hard for other reasons than how fast or far the ball travels.

I do agree that Tua is currently average. Absolutely has to improve. There's nothing that shows he cannot. That's the point. It doesn't matter that he isn't Herbert. If he becomes elite in the NFL, Herberts game won't be his game. It's going to accuracy, quick decisions and quick throws, his elite pocket presence/movement, and that release. It's going to be the speed that he can go from riding a hand off to setting and firing a ball exactly where he wants it to go. That's why Herbert is a terrible comp for him. I get that the choice was between the two, but that's over. Decision made, there were multiple TV shows covering it if you don't believe me. The Chargers are not going to swap now.

People are out on a 2nd year QB that was average running an RPO heavy offense, that could not run, that could not pass block, throwing to a rookie WR and Gesicki. If Tua does continue to develop, you guys shouldn't even be permitted to make crow eating posts (that's a joke resnor, post what you want).

You air yards per attempt stat is misleading, not even worth arguing about if you would actually watch the games. That is why I never pay much attention to stats. You can spin a player anyway you want to by just looking at some number. Air yards per attempt is just a stupid average that does not reflect the reality of what is actually going on. Herbert stretches the defense a lot more than Tua, and goes downfield a lot more. The velocity and accuracy on his longer throws are also leagues above Tua's. You will never see Tua make the kinds of throws Herbert made against the Raiders for example to bring them back and tie the game. He is just not physically capable of it.

Also, are you seriously comparing Tua to Montana and Brady? Give me a freaking break. Montana and Brady were great as soon as they stepped on the field. There were no doubts about their greatness going into their third season as there are with Tua. Montana and Brady also had much better arm talent and Football IQ than Tua does. There is no comparison.

I am not holding my breath on Tua becoming an elite QB. His arm is too weak, he is too physically fragile, and he has not shown great football IQ to warrant an elite projection. His cieling in my opinion is above average starter and competent game manager at best.

A new QB statistic that was introduced by Next Gen Stats just the other day:

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-passing-score-metric

An article relevant to the playoffs:

https://www.nfl.com/news/ranking-the-14-playoff-quarterbacks-based-on-ngs-new-passing-score-metric

I don't see anywhere on the web where the statistic is applied to all of the league's QBs this year, unfortunately. The statistic looks awfully good in my opinion but has the weakness that it doesn't address sacks, which are highly influential plays in the game.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

No, it's not. The question is whether Tua is the problem in Miami. We should constantly try to upgrade every position. The question in this thread is whether upgrading at QB without improving what's around him is the solution to our offensive problems.

This issue involves a difficult proposition for the league's GMs because they have to weigh whether it's more likely to obtain an elite QB who can win big with the expected level of talent around him, or whether it's more likely that they can obtain the talent around the non-elite QB who needs more than the expected level of talent around him.

Going either direction involves a low likelihood of achieving the desired result, and in some situations those directions are mutually exclusive. Consider for example that the Dolphins next year (2023) will have multiple first-round draft picks. Do they use them in the effort to obtain an elite QB, or do they use them to surround the current QB, assuming he remains non-elite, with what he needs?

Imagine being an NFL GM and having your livelihood rest largely on that decision.

"Two Tacos wrote:

Stats are the results of what happend on the field, not your memories of what happend. What actually happend. First Tua is getting his stats "padded" by only throwing short. So I point out some other QBs throwing almost as short or shorter, and now he is the proverbial "system QB". You'd think a fan base that saw Montana win Superbowls when Dan couldn't, and that saw Brady become Brady in the division would have better takes. Throws are hard for other reasons than how fast or far the ball travels.

I do agree that Tua is currently average. Absolutely has to improve. There's nothing that shows he cannot. That's the point. It doesn't matter that he isn't Herbert. If he becomes elite in the NFL, Herberts game won't be his game. It's going to accuracy, quick decisions and quick throws, his elite pocket presence/movement, and that release. It's going to be the speed that he can go from riding a hand off to setting and firing a ball exactly where he wants it to go. That's why Herbert is a terrible comp for him. I get that the choice was between the two, but that's over. Decision made, there were multiple TV shows covering it if you don't believe me. The Chargers are not going to swap now.

People are out on a 2nd year QB that was average running an RPO heavy offense, that could not run, that could not pass block, throwing to a rookie WR and Gesicki. If Tua does continue to develop, you guys shouldn't even be permitted to make crow eating posts (that's a joke resnor, post what you want).

What has Tua EVER shown, in college or NFL, that suggests he is anything more than a slightly above average QB?

I watch almost every Bama game, and I never saw an elite QB that I wanted us to draft.

Never.

"OwesOwn614 wrote:

It's all opinion. The difference between us is I'm willing to give him the chance to develop and some of you are quicker to flush someone who doesn't come out on top of his game. San Diego replaced Drew Brees with a great QB, not knowing that Drew Brees was a great QB in his own right*.

*And NO, I'M NOT COMPARING TUA TO DREW BREES, so please, let's not go down that rabbit hole.

People said the same thing about Rosen.

"Dolfanalyst wrote:

A new QB statistic that was introduced by Next Gen Stats just the other day:

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-passing-score-metric

An article relevant to the playoffs:

https://www.nfl.com/news/ranking-the-14-playoff-quarterbacks-based-on-ngs-new-passing-score-metric

I don't see anywhere on the web where the statistic is applied to all of the league's QBs this year, unfortunately. The statistic looks awfully good in my opinion but has the weakness that it doesn't address sacks, which are highly influential plays in the game.

It looks like this will become part of a more comprehensive measure of QB play:

The NGS Passing Score is a smaller component of an even bigger score -- the Quarterback Score. But that requires components representing rushing performance, the ability to avoid pressure and sacks, and even the elusive analysis of determining the optimal target at every time stamp.

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-intro-to-passing-score-metric

"resnor wrote:

What has Tua EVER shown, in college or NFL, that suggests he is anything more than a slightly above average QB?

I watch almost every Bama game, and I never saw an elite QB that I wanted us to draft.

Never.

The two years Tua was a full-time starter in college he averaged over 11 yards per pass attempt, which is extraordinary. But again, when he can throw 388 passes in an NFL season (this one) and have not a single one of those result in a short pass that a receiver took a long distance, then lots of what contributed to that 11+ YPA in college is missing, and he then settles in with a sub-7 YPA in the NFL, which is below average. Nobody is expecting him to have 11+ YPA in the NFL, but he needs to experience the kinds of plays that generate high pass efficiency from shorter passes, or the pass offense simply won't perform adequately.

Then you have to wonder if the RPO-based offense translates from college to the NFL effectively, and whether there's any other offensive scheme he could excel in that would promote the necessary pass efficiency. If he's "stuck" in an offensive system that's highly competitive in college but not in the NFL, obviously we have a problem. It's not like there are glaring examples of the RPO's success all over the league.

We do know that offensive linemen are permitted to block three yards downfield on passing plays in college, but only one yard in the NFL. So there is a question of whether the RPO-based offense translates from college to the NFL, just on the basis of structure alone. Then there is the question of other variables as well, like speed of defenses, the ability to have multiple receivers who fit the scheme (a la Alabama), etc. There are lots of questions.

"Dolfanalyst wrote:

The two years Tua was a full-time starter in college he averaged over 11 yards per pass attempt, which is extraordinary. But again, when he can throw 388 passes in an NFL season (this one) and have not a single one of those result in a short pass that a receiver took a long distance, then lots of what contributed to that 11+ YPA in college is missing, and he then settles in with a sub-7 YPA in the NFL, which is below average. Nobody is expecting him to have 11+ YPA in the NFL, but he needs to experience the kinds of plays that generate high pass efficiency from shorter passes, or the pass offense simply won't perform adequately.

Then you have to wonder if the RPO-based offense translates from college to the NFL effectively, and whether there's any other offensive scheme he could excel in that would promote the necessary pass efficiency. If he's "stuck" in an offensive system that's highly competitive in college but not in the NFL, obviously we have a problem. It's not like there are glaring examples of the RPO's success all over the league.

We do know that offensive linemen are permitted to block three yards downfield on passing plays in college, but only one yard in the NFL. So there is a question of whether the RPO-based offense translates from college to the NFL, just on the basis of structure alone. Then there is the question of other variables as well, like speed of defenses, the ability to have multiple receivers who fit the scheme (a la Alabama), etc. There are lots of questions.

When you have a quarterback who you have to run a very specific and limited system for in order to have some success, you know you have the wrong QB.

"Dolfanalyst wrote:

The two years Tua was a full-time starter in college he averaged over 11 yards per pass attempt, which is extraordinary. But again, when he can throw 388 passes in an NFL season (this one) and have not a single one of those result in a short pass that a receiver took a long distance, then lots of what contributed to that 11+ YPA in college is missing, and he then settles in with a sub-7 YPA in the NFL, which is below average. Nobody is expecting him to have 11+ YPA in the NFL, but he needs to experience the kinds of plays that generate high pass efficiency from shorter passes, or the pass offense simply won't perform adequately.

Then you have to wonder if the RPO-based offense translates from college to the NFL effectively, and whether there's any other offensive scheme he could excel in that would promote the necessary pass efficiency. If he's "stuck" in an offensive system that's highly competitive in college but not in the NFL, obviously we have a problem. It's not like there are glaring examples of the RPO's success all over the league.

We do know that offensive linemen are permitted to block three yards downfield on passing plays in college, but only one yard in the NFL. So there is a question of whether the RPO-based offense translates from college to the NFL, just on the basis of structure alone. Then there is the question of other variables as well, like speed of defenses, the ability to have multiple receivers who fit the scheme (a la Alabama), etc. There are lots of questions.

Throwing at first round draft picks who are routinely 2-3 yards or more behind defenders is not impressive at all to me. Especially when he had absolute beasts at running back and oline.

"resnor wrote:

Throwing at first round draft picks who are routinely 2-3 yards or more behind defenders is not impressive at all to me. Especially when he had absolute beasts at running back and oline.

That's what's indeed troubling, because he had one of those players -- and not just one of those kinds of players, but one of the actual players! -- in the offense this year, and not a single pass of 388 resulted in his taking a short pass a long distance. What are the odds of that?

That suggests a deficiency in the offensive system against NFL talent, and it transcends any sort of offensive line deficiencies this team had, because we're talking about quick, short passes that have little to do with pressure on the QB or sustaining pass protection for a sufficient duration of time.

"Dolfanalyst wrote:

That's what's indeed troubling, because he had one of those players -- and not just one of those kinds of players, but one of the actual players! -- in the offense this year, and not a single pass of 388 resulted in his taking a short pass a long distance. What are the odds of that?

That suggests a deficiency in the offensive system against NFL talent, and it transcends any sort of offensive line deficiencies this team had, because we're talking about quick, short passes that have little to do with pressure on the QB or sustaining pass protection for a sufficient duration of time.

That is pretty easily explained, imo, by the fact that defensive backs in the NFL are better than in college. It's harder to get open in the NFL that it is in college.

It's the main reason I wasn't interested in drafting Tua. People crowed about his accuracy, while ignoring what was actually occurring fire him to have those stats in college.

"resnor wrote:

That is pretty easily explained, imo, by the fact that defensive backs in the NFL are better than in college. It's harder to get open in the NFL that it is in college.

It's the main reason I wasn't interested in drafting Tua. People crowed about his accuracy, while ignoring what was actually occurring fire him to have those stats in college.

I think he still displays the pinpoint accuracy, but if that 1) involves too great a percentage of short passes that don't generate high pass efficiency because receivers rarely take them anywhere (perhaps because defenses are better, as you mentioned), and 2) can't be compensated for by the downfield passing he's capable of, then you have a major problem with the pass offense despite the pinpoint accuracy.

Drew Brees has similar pinpoint accuracy with a comparatively weaker arm, but he could hit downfield passes with regularity throughout his career, and so his pass offense performed at the necessary level for winning big in the NFL.

The remaining question is really whether Tua's downfield passing was compromised by the Dolphins' offensive line. That's the one explanation that potentially salvages him as an NFL QB. If he can get better protection and hit downfield passes like Drew Brees, then you can live with the fact that his shorter passes rarely generate high pass efficiency.

If he can't do that, then his shorter passes regularly need to be taken longer distances by his receivers, and again he just had a season of 388 passes in which that didn't happen once.

"Dolfanalyst wrote:

I think he still displays the pinpoint accuracy, but if that 1) involves too great a percentage of short passes that don't generate high pass efficiency because receivers rarely take them anywhere (perhaps because defenses are better, as you mentioned), and 2) can't be compensated for by the downfield passing he's capable of, then you have a major problem with the pass offense despite the pinpoint accuracy.

Drew Brees has similar pinpoint accuracy with a comparatively weaker arm, but he could hit downfield passes with regularity throughout his career, and so his pass offense performed at the necessary level for winning big in the NFL.

The remaining question is really whether Tua's downfield passing was compromised by the Dolphins' offensive line. That's the one explanation that potentially salvages him as an NFL QB. If he can get better protection and hit downfield passes like Drew Brees, then you can live with the fact that his shorter passes rarely generate high pass efficiency.

If he can't do that, then his shorter passes regularly need to be taken longer distances by his receivers, and again he just had a season of 388 passes in which that didn't happen once.

Even when he has time, and not pressured. Tua is still throwing underneath and short. He's just not a capable thrower on intermediate passes. He lacks the arm strength in the NFL.