Tua is not the Problem

Tua was raw coming out of college so I gave him a pass on his struggles during his first year. With a years worth of experience now, I expect improvement. Yes our offense is below average across the board, that will not change this year, so it will be difficult to pick up on his improvement. This is where I rely on experts who do watch film and report on players. That includes our resident experts. Looking forward to Tua's "second" season.

 

Don't mind my cherry picking of stats. I can't help it because there are a lot of cherries to be picked.

 

The amount of nfl stats i see every day is amazing lol. I have no clue on a lot of these. My eyes tell me this is accurate depiction of the difference between brisset and tua.

 

New Title for this thread.

"Tua is not the answer." -can someone who isnt me make that? thanks.

We would just have to put an EVEN better team around him (significantly better) than a GREAT QB who you can put less around and still see him shine at his position. *Cough* Justin Herbert looks a lot better than Tua so far aye?

(at least not the long term)

 

WOW That graph is crazy. So is that guy who posted it saying he'd rather have Tua than Mahommes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow?

 

This page wouldn’t be 5 pages in if it was definitive either way. I’ve seen some things from him that have been impressive: intangibles, pocket awareness, movement in the pocket to keep plays alive and short/intermediate passing. I still don’t trust him to stay healthy for a full season and don’t think he’s got elite arm strength.

In terms of why is this team 4-7, he’s definitely part of the problem but not for the obvious reasons. The drop off in play from him to Brissett is significant. IF he had played all 11 games, I think we’d have 2 or more wins.

The biggest problem is our OL is a complete train wreck. They don’t do anything well and have 2-3 guys that shouldn’t even be starting at this point. Whether that’s talent, coaching or a combination, I don’t know.

I’d say the next biggest problem has been too many players on defense underperforming. Howard has not lived up to last year, Jones has never lived up to his big payday, AVG hasn’t played anywhere near enough to get rid of Lawson and Van Noy. We knew the offense would be a work in progress but our defense was supposed to be the strength of the team. Until this 3 game winning streak, they’ve been a bottom tier defense which is unacceptable.

 

“Chan Gailey is still calling the plays from the tunnel, in an effort to ruin Tua.” -TuAnon

Interesting new facts coming to light here.

 

"You're either part of the solution or you're part of the problem."

Do you all really think Tua is the solution to a two decades search for a franchise QB? Really?

Did anyone happen to catch the Chargers/Steelers game last Sunday night? Tua was never, is not now, and will never be Justin Herbert. Period. But, Miami's FO and fan boys are gonna slobber all over a undersized, oft-injured, noodle arm lefty trying desperately to convince themselves and others that he is a franchise QB by using cherry picked stats to try and support their argument.

LMFAO!!!

 

I did. Herbert had some good throws and some terrible throws. His play was a pretty big reason why the Steelers came back from a big lead.

I don't want Tua to be Justin Herbert. I want him to be Tua.

 

Don’t know about that, my only knock on Tua is availability. If he stays healthy I can see him being a real good QB, Montana and Brees didn’t need a big arm. Let’s see how he finishes the season, but the kid is improving and if he stays healthy and keeps improving, I‘m fine with him as our QB #1.

 

Oh herbies army is out in full force this week after pit made him look like prime vick. Herbert can be better than tua that doesn’t mean tua is trash. If anything be glad we got a qb from that draft because all the rookie qbs this season look meh. The only one getting any praise is mac jones and he’s getting praised for doing the same thing fans killed tua for last year. The reason they killed tua for that was because of the fan bases obsession with Herbert after the fact. When everyone in their mother wanted tua pre draft.

 

And Herbert still almost threw the game away.

Then he hits a wide open receiver without any pressure to win the game.

Herbert is a fine quarterback. If I were a Charger fan I would be excited about his future. However, he is not where he needs to be yet. He still has a lot to clean up in his game.

 

I feel like people bring up Herbert because they think if they talk about it enough we will all go back in time and Herbert will magically be a Dolphin.

You do not need to say "yeah but he's not Herbert". WE KNOW ALREADY.

 

Exactly, this Herbert narrative is easy for the detractors.

But look at this QB draft class.
Lawrence - A disaster so far, their own brass believe he simply can’t play against zone.
Wilson- Been outplayed by Mike White and Joe Flacco
Trey Lance - Hardly seen him and for good reason based on what we did see.
Fields - Rough with a capital R
Mac Jones - Has looked good *(with an all world caliber offensive line, maybe the best running game in the league and a top 5 defense)* Let’s keep in mind Flacco and Dilfer were Super bowl winning caliber QBs under these circumstances.

And for those following the draft class for 2022… probably not a single QB should get a 1st round grade. It’s that bad.

Tua has had his struggles, but most QBs do in their first couple seasons. He has also shown he is developing and accurate under terrible circumstances. Maybe the worst offensive line and worst running game support in the league. The entire offense is Tua and a rookie Wide reciever who barely played last year in college. (Think about that!)

 

OK fine. Take Herbert out of the equation then.

I don't think Tua is all that and a bag of chips. That's all I'm sayin'!

 

Finally got around to watching this. I apologize for taking so long. Life.

Simms does question his arm and says that Tua isn't throwing outs and is keeping everything in the middle of the field. Outs require more arm strength than deep balls, as you have to drive the ball or its a pick. The second video calls his arm "pretty ok". Which is true from an arm strength point of view. I'm not sure when the Simms thing was recorded, but Tua's last few passing charts don't support that at all. Even with the finger that Flores said was effecting his throwing. I'm going to guess it was earlier, and Simms wasn't just talking out his ***. The Dolphins went from heavy slants and RPO early, to heavy on outs and play action. I think this is clearly because of the online. Cannot RPO if it's really just PO. It will be interesting to see when Simms changes his tune about Tua.

Below is last week vs the Jets for example. Very little in the middle.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/single/all/miami-dolphins/2021/week/tua-tagovailoa/TAG620344

The reason Tua cannot throw deep is the Oline. Even that big pass he hit yesterday had him have to scramble, and run through an arm on his shoulder pad, before throwing 50+ air yards. 3ypc pointed out that there were only 6 pass like that all of last year in the entire NFL.

Tua has to throw with elite accuracy and anticipation to be elite with an average arm. He's got the accuracy, I just hope the anticipation continues to develop. We shall see. It's just absurd to make a final judgment now.

 

That's freaking hysterical- but I almost hate that you posted it since major media outlets will soon be reporting it as fact.

 

Sheesh only 1.8 seconds that’s embarrassing to read.

 

My eyes tell me that this is the worst line I have seen in Miami. And then the statistics are backing it up.

This says a lot because there have been some terrible lines.

 

yeah i dont get people saying blaming the line is dumb and tua is just bad i mean look at this i dare someone to tell me rodgers is just bad.

 

We get it, you have Herbititis, it's flared up after Sunday nights game against a depleted Steelers defense. Now you feel like acting like an *** on the internet. Try and control yourself if you can. Find a safe space, chant Herbert in front of your Herbert poster five times and he will appear and hold you with loving arms.

 

I have no problem with going into next season with Tua as the QB. My biggest issue isn't play on the field or arm strength but durability and I'm OK seeing what that holds for another season, but with a different backup.

I just can't even (like literally) with the rest of this garbage offensive unit. Horrendous is the only word that can really describe it, from the coaching, to the gameplanning, to the playcalling, to the WR mash unit we all saw coming, to Gaskin's inability to find a hole, to the offensive line so atrocious that being merely "bad" would be a major upgrade. Just effin yikes.

I would be surprised if the front office doesn't revisit the Watson trade, or if we pursue a Rogers or Wilson type. But outside of like those 3 dudes, all of whom will be phenomenally expensive, annihilate the cap, bring age into the equation and have significant questions of their own ... there isn't a clear path to upgrade. I mean who do you want? EJ Manuel 2.0 in this years QB class? A castoff like Daniel Jones? The Cam Newton experience?

 

These stats mean nothing. Can he stand flat footed and throw the ball 70 yards? Don't think so, until he can do that he's not a good quarterback.

 

I'd be more concerned than stoked, that it took him 8 completed passes to make 58 yards.. as it typically does. There's a reason for that.. and it isn't the line, because Tua is a smart enough QB (usually) to not make a low % attempt, even lower with that limp noodle.

This is Deja Vu X nearly every QB who has started for Miami since Dan. There's always the camp that holds on too long, then there's the hater camp, and finally the realist camp.

I only said he will only ever be average, i didn't say "Replace him immediately" and still the Tua fans react defensively.

psst: Yeah.. Montana, Brees, Tagovailoa I totally sees it.

 

Unless we go the free agent route, there is no reason not to give Tua another year, as we don't have enough ammo this year to move up and get a guy. Also, I don't think this class is very strong to warrant a big trade up this year.

 

Realistic = it’s too early to tell whether Tua is merely average or will end up producing at a sustained above average level.

Why? Because no one has shown they’re good at predicting who will end up a very good QB in the NFL. Can’t just look at physical traits and accurately predict the result, or even ceiling. Statistically he’s still on track.

So no reason assume Tua will be merely average. Let it play out.

 

I think what happens is that people like a certain QB, see them transition favorably to the NFL and then think they know everything there is to know about evaluating a QB. For instance, I was super-high on Burrow pre-draft as a can't miss, day one starter and it looks like I was correct.

However, I was also high on Jalen Hurts as a prospect/project QB (that one's playing out so-so) and I was very confident in Lawrence being a can't miss, day one QB as well (to be determined, but not great so far). I also thought Lamar Jackson was a bust (oops) and I was pretty high on Zach Wilson (oops oops).

I bring this up because it's easy in hindsight to say, "I told you guys Burrow was going to be a great quarterback!" But I've also missed on 3 or 4 as well and it's easy to 'overlook' that stuff with selective memory.

 

Tua Tagovailoa Is Playing Well, Which Is A Real Inconvenience If You’re The Dolphins
By Ty Schalter

Filed under NFL

Tua Tagovailoa is playing like a franchise quarterback again.
MICHAEL REAVES / GETTY IMAGES

After taking quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick in last year’s draft, the Miami Dolphins appeared to have given up on the Alabama star this season. They signed capable spot starter Jacoby Brissett in the offseason, then seemed to bench Tagovailoa for Brissett going into Week 10. But the kicker was the extensive trade talks the Dolphins have reportedly held with the Houston Texans about quarterback Deshaun Watson. In fact, if Watson had settled some of his lawsuits prior to the trade deadline — he currently faces more than 20 lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct — he might already be the Dolphins’ starter.

But general manager Chris Grier and head coach Brian Flores, who might have been counting on Watson to save their jobs, have had their plans ruined (again): Tagovailoa is starting to play like a franchise quarterback.
Though he had recovered enough from a fractured middle finger to be listed as active against the Baltimore Ravens two weeks ago, Tagovailoa didn’t get the start. But Brissett was knocked out of the game just after halftime, and Tagovailoa came in with the Dolphins holding a slim 6-3 lead. He completed 8 of 13 passes for 158 yards,
widening the lead in the process, and put the exclamation point on a 22-10 upset.

There was no question who would start for the Dolphins against the New York Jets this past Sunday, and Tagovailoa took command from the opening 12-play, 83-yard touchdown drive. Though he threw an interception later in the first quarter, he was almost flawless in the second half — and broke his week-old personal long-completion record with a 65-yard touchdown pass to Mack Hollins:


Miami's offensive coaching staff used tempo to keep the Jets defense off-balance and get Tagovailoa into a rhythm: quick resets when the game was close, and long clock burns when the Dolphins were leading late. Tua finished 27-of-33 passing on the day for 273 yards, two touchdowns and a 108.7 passer rating.

His big day came just two years and five days after the hip dislocation and posterior-wall fracture that ended his college career. After beginning his pro career on the bench and suffering multiple injuries — a 2020 thumb injury, a rib fracture in Week 2 of this season and a middle finger fracture in Week 8 — Sunday was just his 15th career start.

Despite not having a full season’s worth of starts yet, Tagovailoa has made significant improvement from last year. This season, his completion rate, touchdown rate, average yards per attempt and per game, passer rating and sack rate are all improved. But he hasn’t just been better; he’s been good.

Through Week 11, Tua is in the top half of the league in several key performance and efficiency metrics. He’s ranked 10th in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating — ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott. He’s seventh in completion rate, seventh in rate of off-target throws and 13th in expected points added per dropback.
Quarterback stats are among quarterbacks who average at least 14 passing attempts per team game.

Though Total QBR and expected-points metrics take game situation into account, Tagovailoa’s numbers jump significantly in clutch time:

Tagovailoa has been key in the clutch
Metrics for Tua Tagovailoa by game period during the 2021 season

COMPLETION PERCENT
QUARTER EPA/DROPBACK PASSER RATING RAW QBR YARDS/DROPBACK ABOVE AVG. ADJUSTED
1st-3rd 0.09 86.6 53.3 6.12 0.4 67.1%
4th + OT 0.24 105.0 71.7 8.58 6.6 78.9
Diff. +0.15 +18.4 +18.4 +2.46 +6.2 +11.8
Through Week 11.

SOURCE: ESPN STATS & INFORMATION GROUP

In fourth quarters and overtimes this season, Tagovailoa is the eighth-highest-rated passer in the league. He’s also ninth in EPA per dropback, sixth in raw QBR, fifth in completion rate above expected,
first in average yards per dropback and second in adjusted completion percentage.


By just about any metric, Tagovailoa has been one of the most effective closers in the game.

But there’s plenty of room for growth. Though he’s been very accurate with his throws (especially late in the game), he’s also been extremely conservative. He’s averaging just 7.02 air yards per attempt this season, ranked 30th — and despite not throwing it very far downfield, he’s as prone to interceptions as you would expect for a quarterback who’s played in only 17 professional football games. Six picks against nine touchdowns gives him a TD-to-INT ratio of 1.5. That’s tied with Matt Ryan for 24th in the league and is just barely ahead of Jared Goff, Daniel Jones and Brissett.

To keep himself on the field, Tagovailoa will have to add more explosive plays to his game (like the 65-yarder to Hollins) while subtracting mistakes (like the first-quarter interception). But he already has demonstrated the accuracy, decision-making and clutch instincts of an above-average NFL starter.

The 4-7 Dolphins are heading into a three-game home stand during which FiveThirtyEight’s Elo-based predictions favor them over every opponent: the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants and the Jets again. If they take care of those three, they’ll need only a mild upset of
the New Orleans Saints to get over .500. Plug all that into our scenario calculator, and Miami would head into its final two games with a 25 percent chance to make the playoffs.

The Dolphins entered November on a seven-game losing streak, with Flores fending off questions about his job status. Now they have a chance to go 7-0 from there. Even if things don’t go that well down the stretch, it’s quite likely that Flores and Grier keep their jobs — and unlikely they keep trying to get rid of the quarterback who saved them.

Check out our latest NFL predictions.

Ty Schalter is a husband, father and terrible bass player who uses words and numbers to analyze football. His work has been featured at VICE, SiriusXM and elsewhere. @tyschalter

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-if-youre-the-dolphins/?addata=espn:nfl:teams

 

Even the fastest player on the team runs the 40 in what, 4.3 seconds? With Tua only having 1.8 seconds, is that receiver going to be 70 yards downfield?

This is the point I continuously make about the short passes and everyone ragging on Tagovailoa. The OLine is not giving the play enough time to develop to make any big throws. You could have Waddle or Gisecki going to be open 40 yards downfield but with the defense in your face at 1.8 seconds, the only receiver that’s going to be open in that short of time is going to be the TE on the short crossing route of the RB in the flat. It’s just so confusing to me how the naysayers can’t see something so blatantly obvious.

 

Noted.

 

JaMarcus Russell could throw a ball fifty yards from his knees! Now that's arm strength right there! That's who we need!

 

I didn't want Tua.

I think much of the angst around Tua is that he was a bad pick where we picked him. If he was picked in late first or early second, no one would complain.

But giving up what we did, Tua can never live up to that. It's this gens Ted Ginn.

 

This thread has serious legs. It all comes down to what you want the quarterback to do. I'd suggest that being unable to pitch a 70 yard pass is probably a little bit nitpicky criteria. There's tons of objective stats that show that if he's not the best QB in the league (nobody should expect him to be, BTW), he's actually ahead of the curve for his experience.

Some are bent out of shape because they think that if Tua is good and Burrow and Herbert are great (neither is at this point), it means Tua was a bad pick. That makes no sense to me, but we're all entitled to our opinions.

My biggest problem with him is how many games he's missed, especially since we can't protect him. But other than durability (which is probably the most important aspect a QB can exhibit), Tua checks a lot of boxes for a guy who has just a season's worth of games under his belt. I won't suggest he is the problem mainly because I don't know objectively what he has to do in order to be the answer. In my subjective opinion, he does more than enough to warrant my support.

I'd suggest Miami has at least five things that we need to address before quarterback, and the first two that come to mind (offensive line and playcalling) impact the kid. Just like they'll impact his replacement if they're not addressed first.

Is Tua a problem? Beats me. Is Tua THE problem? Heck naw. If you believe that, you're focused a little too hard on him.