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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    This is a great post, Key. Thank you for taking the time to spell it all out.
     
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  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've been a writer for decades and started off as a journalist. It takes work to tell an unbiased story, both sides of the equation, and I briefly mentored Travis W. on that years ago with the Tannehill recaps. If you're showing bias, it's not worth reading. If you're trying to prove a pre-conceived conclusion that others don't believe, then you're wasting everyone's time. The best journalism is honest and unbiased...and its in very short supply these days.

    For instance, Tua's the league's best RPO quarterback, even though he's the only full time RPO quarterback...and he's 3rd overall in RPO yards. Why would anyone ever write that and expect to be taken seriously? The writer literally gives a stat to prove that the 1st thing he says is a lie.

    I just hate shady journalism and it's why all of us disagree on so many things.
     
  3. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  4. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    That's the essence of blogs, IMO. They're maintained by folks with an agenda and they'll go too hard toward one direction or the other. Even their headlines show bias. With that being said, a lot of news outlet writers fall into the trap by adding unnecessary descriptors to their stories. I can live with something described as "underthrown". Even "underthrown by five yards". When it's described to be "terribly underthrown", it shows bias and seems like the writer's influencing the reader.

    This wasn't something that I paid attention to until I wrote to Greg Cote and told him that although I disagreed with his opinions, he was entitled to hold them but they shouldn't have been inserted into a recap. He was polite enough to respond and tell me that he was a columnist, not a reporter. He was 100% correct.

    My problem with Omar is that although he is a good writer, his tweets indicate his critical views and make me question whether I should believe his account of a game or practice is objective. And Mando is just a ball of opinion wrapped in an agenda surrounded by bias. It's hard to be objective. But if you're given 10 paragraphs to account for something, subjective words and phrases should be the first thing edited out.
     
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    A columnist is a reporter with an opinion, so Cote was only partially correct. Because in order to be able to share an opinion and actually have people respond favorably, readers have to believe that you're a subject matter expert that writes without an agenda. Your note to him pretty much shows that you didn't have that level of respect for his writing.

    For example, Cote's latest article on the Miami Herald- about where is Don King now. I counted 68 ads on that page plus 5 subscription buttons. But still, I read the article. Don King got his start with Ali and represented top fighters like Ali and Tyson. Then it mentions him promoting the upcoming fight at 90, still with vigor and passion. It drops a few negative aspects as well, such as Ali and Tyson suing him over the years, and how he stepped back after his wife died in 2010. It also mentions his two homicides- one justified, one 2nd degree murder he was pardoned on 4 years later. It ends asking if this will be his final fight card.

    Overall, it was a big pile of nothing- King's greatest hits from the past five decades. And yet I had to wade through 68 ads, multiple popup videos and other distractions to read through facts the average fight fan already knows. Columnist? No. Columnists don't write puff pieces filed with spam about legends past. They write for Sports Illustrated or get a TV contract. Cote is a hack cranking out 1,500 word "feature pieces" for a dead industry that pays about 20% of what respectable publications pay.

    At least he still has that illusion of being a respected writer in Miami- he's put in decades of more menial work to be able to write about whatever he wants. But as soon as his clicks diminish, he'll be taken out like the trash just like newspapers do with any half-talented writer with some ideals.

    FYI, I also read three more recent articles- the Don King piece was clearly the best of them. His DeShaun opinion piece was 900 words to say that the NFL should suspend Watson for a full year, but not life. Didn't share any real facts, no breaking info...just that there was 24 women and all of them can't be lying. It should have been 250 words max, but he drudged on to hit a word count so 68 more ads fit on the page. Sorry, I have zero respect for someone like that...it's no longer journalism.
     
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  6. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Just checking in on this thread since we had some videos of Tua actually throwing and saw your post. Why do you think the Dolphins run RPO the majority of the time?. You linked the wrong article but the one you are quoting about Tua being the best RPO said this:

    "Tagovailoa was the best RPO quarterback in the NFL in 2021. He had 847 RPO passing yards in 2021. That led the NFL, even though he didn’t lead in RPO attempts. He was third with 90 RPO passing attempts."

    I remember, but cannot be bothered to find it, so disregard if you like, an article about the Dolphins RPO game that was published towards the end of the season last year. Basically, why they felt Tua was the best RPO QB was because Tua pulled and threw a much at a much higher rate, at a significantly deeper depth of target, with the worst run game in the NFL.

    Point is, Tua was the most hyped RPO QB for some decent reasons. But, the amount of RPOs run by the Dolphins were by no means league leading. Again, from memory, but KC among others ran many more RPO plays than Miami in 2021.

    This could all be moot. I don't remember SF being a RPO heavy team last year.
     
  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree- Tua did well as an RPO quarterback with very little to work with around him. They ran RPO often...even though we didn't have much of a run game...because it bought Tua maybe a split-second to throw the ball to someone.

    I was just critiquing the article that was shared yesterday and pointed out the inconsistencies throughout it. My gripe has never been with Tua, it's shady journalism. =)
     
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  8. Lithoman

    Lithoman New Member

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    I feel y'all. I say it, BUT it usually falls on deaf ears. I did not want to draft Tua. I thought the risk was too high with his lingering injury. The young man had potential, but with Jonathan Taylor tearing it up, much rather would of liked that in our backfield. Anyhow, now a few years later, Tua seems to be doing fine, and has had what, an extended season of play.... think it's 20 games...

    I don't get why so many be hatin..All you had to do is watch one Alabama game... one...I do NOT like w3 basically got him no help on the OL... in the draft. We did get Terron, huge plus. Love the addition of Mostert. Rather of tried to get Kenneth Walker, but it is what it is.

    I just keep seeing all these stories about Tuas arm, Sean Payton, Mike McDaniel hit pieces... I'm sick of it...reminds me of Jimmy Johnson backdooring Marino for Jay Fiedlery....ya, it's a combo of Feely and Fiedler...

    The Incompetence comes from Heizenga and Ross... after the draft, pretty clear who the problem is... it sure wasn't the previous coach...Flores was probably the best thing Miami had going for them...just like true cowards, Ross/Grier tossed out the general...

    See what McDaniel can do... it's going to be hard...seen it numerous times.. so tired of the Brady, Payton, Ross rumors and innuendo

    When did Miami become east coast Hollywood?
     
  9. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    FYI - there is a Hollywood, Florida. :-)
     
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  10. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Is this cherry picking? Prolly.

     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2022
  11. Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    Tua was 30th in the league on downfield attempts.
     
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  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So 40% of 1st down yard goals- 4 yards. 60% of 2nd down....if it's 2nd and 6, that's another 4 yards. Or if first down failed and you're 2nd and 10, that's 6 yards. And this stat is true, every football coach in America preaches it, if you average 4 yards per play, the drive SHOULD always end in points.

    The problem with that stat is that it favors quarterbacks who prefer short, quick passes. Mahommes was the master of that with Tyreek. Interesting to see Herbert there since he's associated with intermediate passes. We know Tua thrives in short passes as well. That's why this stat sort of lies.

    Let me make up a quick scenario. Herbert throws for 11 on 1st down and it's dropped, the play failed. He runs on 2nd down for 3 yards, so that play failed too by this definition. But then Herbert throws for 19 on 3rd down and it's caught, making your success rate 1 for 3, or 33%. Meanwhile, QBs like Tua throw short on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down, success, success, success because who he's throwing to.

    Here's the thing though. In 3 plays, Tua has gone 12 yards with three "good" plays. In three plays, Herbert has gone 22 yards with two "bad" plays. Who's doing better on the drive so far? For me, it would be the QB 10 yards closer to scoring.

    That's why this is a great general football philosophy, but lousy as an actual stat. What actually matters is scoring and if both the pretend drives end on the next set of downs, those little wins mean nothing. The real goal isn't 4 yards per play, it's to score points however you can. My boy Mat Moore comes to mind with this discussion- he'd throw three horrible passes in a row, then nail a receiver in stride at 40 yards for a quick TD. And guess what, those four plays average out to well over 4 yards per play, even though most of them were failures. That's pretty much why the stat in question is the truth and a lie all at the same time, it doesn't focus on what really matters (scoring).
     
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  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pretty good video from Ace Per Head breaking down Tua.



    In a nutshell, he's saying that Tua did not have the right tools or right formations to succeed last year. He prefaced that by explaining that you take Marino and put him on any team, any era and he's probably going to have a lot of success. But you take someone like Simms or Montana, who were clearly inferior to Marino in talent, and they can win in the right system with the right scheme. He explained if Montana was in Miami now, he'd have very little success because the system isn't designed for his strengths.

    Once he turned to Tua, he showed that he averaged 2.2 seconds to throw out of 12 personnel (2 TE's and a RB blocking, two receivers). Defenses knew Tua couldn't go long because there wasn't enough time, so they played everything short and were able to dial up pressure. When you look at someone like Mahommes or Jackson, they can still go long because they can buy the extra time with their legs. Josh Allen can go long because he's a Marino-like player that's truly elite. But with Tua, something has to give- either a 3rd receiver (which equals at least one less rusher), a catching TE running a route (equals another non-rusher), a better run game, or just superior blocking.

    He explains that Herbert would have six rushing while Tua had eight...all because of the system and the defense covering what you put in front of them. This year, Tua shouldn't be stuck in 12 personnel because of poor blocking, and we should see a more balanced offense. He doesn't make a prediction other than Tua should have no excuses this season.

    He also talks about arm strength and said that Tua was better pre-injury, but even now he has "enough" arm strength to do his job well in the right offensive system.
     
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  14. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    This continuous back and forth on Tua and downfield throws is truly getting tiring. It’s nonsensical!

    Did Tagovailoa throw down field a lot? No
    Did Tua have a solid offensive line? No
    Was Tagovailoa under duress more than any other quarterback in the league? Yes
    Did the Dolphins have a competent offensive coaching staff developing an offense to Tua’s skills set? No

    Enough already. What’s done is done. The team has invested heavily in the offense, revamping the line, bringing in solid running backs to upgrading the receiving corps. Personnel wise, the TEAM is set. Whether or not McDaniel is the right coach and his play calling is competent remains to be seen however, the McDaniel is up for the task, and Tagovailoa falters, then we’ll be drafting a new QB next season but until then…

    ENOUGH already
     
  15. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Not disputing your post, but that doesn't account for the fact that the five QBs ahead of him are top-10 signal callers. Suggesting that his presence among them is because of the nature of his passes doesn't account for their presence above him. And we have many here who believe that THE actual important stat - winning games - is less important because of who won when Tua is the QB. As I said before, every stat can be viewed through a prism of being cherry picked if taken out of context. And for sakes of arguments, most of them are. It's all just offseason fun and games.
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I wasn't trying to say it was a bad list to be on at all- I was just speaking to the context of how "successful plays" don't equal winning or even scoring. The way the stat is presented, a 50 yard pass that's caught is a successful play. So is a caught 4 yard pass...or a 1-yard pass with three yards after the catch. If we're comparing success/failure just on that metric, the short passes/runs come out on top because they get more volume per drive. For example, Mahommes threw more short passes than anyone last year and he's #1 on this list. That's definitely not a knock on him or anyone else, it just means he's efficient with them and it keeps the offense moving.

    I agree with your other point as well- this is something to talk about when there's nothing else to talk about.
     
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  17. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Trigger warning (it's just his opinion):
     
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  18. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm thinking about the first tweet.

    The second is absolutely cherry picked. The fewer deep attempts you throw, the easier it is to have a high completion%. It's like shooting free throws. Hitting one is easy. Getting 4-5 is pretty easy. But hit 10 in a row. Now 20 in a row. Now go for 40 in a row.
     
  19. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    By that reasoning, shouldn't the list consist of the six QBs with the fewest attempts?
     
  20. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Tua Tagovailoa more accurate than Patrick Mahomes? Tyreek Hill says one thing, numbers might say another
    9:15 PM ET
    [​IMG]
    Marcel Louis-JacquesESPN

    Tyreek Hill is many things -- arguably the fastest player in the NFL, an All-Pro wide receiver and the highest-paid receiver in NFL history. He might also be quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's most vocal supporter.

    Hill compared the Miami Dolphins quarterback to his former teammate in Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes, during an episode of his podcast "It Needed to Be Said."

    "Obviously, like I'm gonna go with 15 as the strongest arm but as far as accuracy-wise, I'm going with Tua all day," Hill said.

    How much of that is rooted in truth, versus Hill simply supporting his new teammate?

    For starters, Mahomes owned the league's fifth-best QBR last season at 62.2 while Tagovailoa finished with a 49.7 -- 18th-best in the NFL. Their completion percentages were comparable, with Tagovailoa's 67.8% besting Mahomes' 66.3%.

    Tagovailoa did own a completion percentage over expectation of +0.9%, compared to Mahomes' -2.1%, which lends credence to Hill's statement that the Dolphins' quarterback is the more accurate passer.

    The third-year quarterback has weathered criticism during his first two professional seasons, mainly surrounding his ability to push the ball downfield. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Tagovailoa was actually the most accurate passer in the NFL last season on attempts of at least 25 air yards, connecting on 50% of his attempts.

    At the same time, he attempted the second-fewest of such passes -- which he attributed to playcalling, rather than his own capability.

    "I have seen some improvements on being able to push the ball down the field once again," he told Muscle and Fitness magazine. "I honestly think it's just practice. I wasn't really able to push the ball down the field last year because we didn't have plays specifically to push the ball down the field. A lot of plays that were called last year were meant for one person. Either this person is open or the play might be dead.

    "It's a little different now. My second year was different than my rookie year and this year will be different than last year with how we go about doing things. I definitely feel a lot more confident being able to push the ball down the field. It's going to be exciting."

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...yreek-hill-says-one-thing-numbers-say-another
     
  21. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    That's about useless. Tyreek was talking about HIS experience with Tua, not some statistical data based on his whole career.
     
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  22. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Much ado about nothing. I honestly don't know how the kid became a national obsession/punching bag. I dig Dolphins fans' divided opinion on him; it's what we do. But you and I both know that 95% of the talking heads with an opinion about Tua don't watch Dolphins games. Nobody watches 10+ games on Sunday and shows up on Monday morning with a first-hand account of how well the QBs have done. Skip, Shannon, Stephen A., Florio, Chris Simms, and the rest of them get their narratives from other reporters and roll with it.

    They know that we have passionate fans and if you're going to say anything about us/our players, go low enough because that's where the clicks and comments come from. Consider: We've had half a week of commentary - some of it vehement - about how Tyreke Hill had the audacity to suggest that Tua is better than Mahomes. The fact that it's become such a joke in spite of the fact that he never said that is indicative of the fact that (a) it's a long offseason, and (b) these cats aren't even paying attention. It's just like the chatter behind the flutter ball tweet: They see what they want to see and until Tua shows them something to shut them up, they're going to do what they always have done.
     
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  23. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    My point in posting those last two Tweets was, as I stated, not to prove that Tua is the best QB since Dan Marino, but to point out the fallacy in the opposite position. Even if the stats don't show everything that some might claim they show, what they DO show is that Tua is a talented QB who has real potential and is FAR from being the low-end QB that many make him out to be.

    That's it. That was my point. There's good stuff in Tua's game, there's reason for hope this next season.
     
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  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree, and I think that's what Tyreek meant by his statement as well. He wasn't talking accuracy as in career catches, he was referring to precise ball placement in time to make something happen. For example, there was a video recently showing all of the picks Mahommes had from tipped balls to Tyreek. Several of them were intermediate passes thrown hard that hit Tyreek around the face or above his head, they were absolutely catchable balls but he couldn't haul them in. Tua doesn't throw with a cannon and generally hits receivers in their hands in stride...that's what the Cheetah was referring to in accuracy. It's easier to catch Tua's passes and sets people up for YAC.
     
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Not necessarily. If you play on a good team with good receivers, that makes a difference too. Yet Tua is on there, and he threw amongst the lowest. So regardless of anything else, Tua's comp% on deep balls isn't really impressive to me, because I watched him, and I wasn't seeing him throw deep. I know there were many reasons for that, but still, deep balls weren't really common in our offense.
     
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  26. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Was he really under duress more the Burrows?
     
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  27. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I haven't seen anybody on here say Tua is complete trash. The complaint is he is not elite, does not have a very strong arm, does not have a very high football IQ, and is injury prone.

    Aside from that, he has a quick release, with good accuracy when throwing on schedule and good pocket presence. I believe he can be a decent to above average starting QB in the NFL. I just don't think he has what it takes to be a truly elite QB, which is what we drafted him top 5 for.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2022
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  28. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Short answer? Yes
     
  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's a tough one. Tua was pressured more, Burrow was leveled more. Tua has better footwork and accuracy, Burrow has better everything else.

    You know, it sort of amazes me that we're even having this conversation. A #1 pick and a #5 pick, both to lead their organizations, and we're talking about which one has the lousiest situations when trying to pass the ball. This just shouldn't be a topic because organizations should never let it happen to begin with...protect your darn quarterbacks!
     
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  30. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Burrows missed several as well. I watched most of their games. He got clobbered a lot.
     
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  31. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Long answer? Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssssssssssssssss
     
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  32. Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    What an absolutely stupid thing to say. I usually like Omar but he’s off his rocker on this one.
     
  33. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  34. plc001

    plc001 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You usually like Omar??! I didn’t think anyone liked Omar, I’m not sure Omar’s mom likes Omar…
     
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  35. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I like Omar.
     
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  36. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There were only 10 footballs that traveled 55 yards in the air in the NFL last year.

    Tua had one of them
     
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  37. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Whether or not what Hill is saying is true or not, I like that we've got a player with a chip in his shoulder, willing to chirp away.

    Man, I miss the 90s. I miss the things players in those days would say and do. They've sanitized the game. Kinda taken some of the fun out of it.
     
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  39. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, my issue with that is that they don't give you the number of attempts.

    You would agree that's important, right?

    I know you probably think I'm anti-Tua, but I'm not. I just am not sold on him, and I want him to prove he's the man, and I find stats liked this to simply be disingenuous. They're manufactured to try to prove a narrative.

    Hopefully these stats are signs that this season, with his improved health and conditioning, and improved weapons, that he'll actually be throwing deep this season.
     
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