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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't think your evaluation of a QB should be based on draft position. Even if he's undrafted, if he's merely average it doesn't decrease the need for an upgrade. No matter the draft position you still need a QB that increases win% above expected given the rest of the talent on the team. Draft position and who else was available are useful questions for evaluating the GM, not the QB.
     
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  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm Not evaluating him on draft status. I'm saying, I believe he was overdrafted. I think he has good shot at a decent career. You draft a guy in the second, for for him to succeed. You draft a guy at 5? He needs to be amazing to be worth that pick.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's an unrealistically high expectation. In the last 15 years, so since 2006 (the year after Rodgers was drafted), the only years where an elite QB was even available at 5 were 2012 where Wilson was eventually picked in the 3rd and 2017 where both Watson and Mahomes were available in the early 1st (incidentally the year I really wanted us to do whatever it took to get a QB).

    Elite QBs are just so rare that it's mostly a matter of luck whether one is even in the draft, and you can't expect GMs to know this beforehand. Also, Herbert — the other QB we could have taken — isn't elite yet either. So the expectation of picking an elite QB at 5 is really unrealistic. The expectation should be finding a solid above average QB and with luck an elite QB.
     
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  4. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  5. Rouk

    Rouk Well-Known Member

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    Schad is one of the main watson pushers lol. Acting like he hasn’t taken a side is hilarious.

    Now i don’t fault anyone for wanting watson before the draft last year. However, once all this legal stuff came out i still don’t understand how anyone can want that man. Its honestly embarrassing for our franchise that they stayed in the watson talks this whole time.
     
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  6. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The more this goes on, the less I understand this thread named, "Tua is not the Problem." I mean, if you break down our entire offense and look at what is the problem-

    - 1st round tackle trying to play guard...and not doing well
    - rookie tackle in over his head can't hold his own...but progressing a little bit
    - The other guard is trending towards average but still has a long way to go
    - Our 3rd string center is showing why he's 3rd string- both above him are out
    - Our other tackle is really a guard, but he's the vet of the group and the best we have
    - Our top two receivers are always injured
    - Our rookie receiver looks good, but can't run the route tree because of the 5 linemen above
    - Our TE looks like a HOF receiver, but he can't run the full route tree either
    - Our RB is decent, but can't catch a block from the line to save his life.
    - Our WR4 is pretty good, would start elsewhere, but he's trying to fill a WR1 role and it doesn't work
    - Then there's Tua...who somehow works with these other 10 guys and manages to drive the football anyway

    If we want to talk about problems, there's seven of them that are glaringly obvious- our offensive line, Parker and Fuller. When 7 of your 11 starters are unreliable, why on Earth would you try to judge the QB who's actually winning games? Tua is pressured the most in the NFL, has one of the fastest releases and makes mostly smart decisions. I just don't get this thread when there's so many obvious people to blame.

    And for the "we want Herbert" crowd, hopefully you realize that the vast majority of plays Herbert makes would end in a sack in Miami. You can't compare the two QB's when one has to throw before the 2 second mark and the other has 3+ seconds per play. Herbert would wash out in this offense as would 90% of the QB's out there. I mean, just look at Brissett...not a bad QB by any means, but looks like a bum behind this offensive line.

    Tua is CLEARLY not the problem in Miami. Everything around Tua is except for Waddle, Gaskin and Gisecki.
     
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  7. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Well put Key, I agree, you definitely cannot compare the two situations in regards to Tua and Herbert. Right now Herbert is playing in a much better environment. A nice offensive line in front of him, arguably the best receiving back in the game in Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams. Fortunately for the Chargers they are loaded with talent at the moment. I would say that Herbert is definitely the stronger of the two QBs, has the better arm strength, but Tua makes quicker decisions, and has been the smarter of the two. Obviously quarterbacks experience good to great and then bad to horrible years in this league. So much depends on what is around them. Very rarely have I seen a Quarterback make it work without good coaching, adequate O line play, and competent receivers/running backs. In fact, I've never seen it. We've seen Tom Brady win with average wide receivers, but we're also talking about the greatest to ever do it paired with probably the best coach the game has ever seen in Coach B. Herbert is going to have a season where he is without a great O line or he'll have a year where he's got no receivers, no run game. It's going to happen. It happens to every QB that has longevity in this league. Just look at the awful year Russell Wilson is having right now. Just last year, he looked to be arguably the best if not top 3 in the league. Any one of us would have signed right up for him to come here and play. What's changed from his position just last year to this year? Seattle looks lost on offense, no run game to speak of, shotty O line play. Now people are saying Wilson is a one trick pony who can only throw a deep ball. Just last year he was an MVP candidate. It happens in this league. As of right now, I think Tua is experiencing early growing pains at his position. I feel like these early struggles/circumstances will only benefit him later on. He's not insulated the way Justin Herbert is at the moment (although I think that was the initial plan). It's all up to him. I say we remain patient and see what we truly have with him once this team finds at the very least...A functioning offensive line to block for him.
     
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  8. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Herbert won the Rookie of the Year award with the worst OL in football.

    You can not say anyone is elite in their second year, but he is certainly as close or has displayed the most potential to be elite as any rookie I have seen.
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2021
  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Never seen it? Ever heard of Watson? In 2018 he was behind one of the worst OL in modern times, sacked 62 times (most in the league), and was still one of the best QBs in the league production-wise. He even had a bad coach. It's precisely why Watson (before his legal troubles) would have been a great addition: you don't even need a half-way decent OL with that guy.

    There are many others too. As was already pointed out Herbert did really well with a bad OL, Russell Wilson won the SB with a really bad OL, and so did Eli Manning in 2011. Speaking of Mannings, Peyton covered up a lot of bad OL problems, and Elway often was running for his life. Roethlisberger in his early years also played behind a bad OL.

    It's called an injury. The first 5 games of this season Wilson was absolutely elite. His ratings were: 152.3, 128.8, 111.2, 116.0, and 93.7 in the game he got injured. After coming back from injury he's had 2 games with ratings 39.7 and 80.1 and you think this is all due to some huge change in surrounding cast? LOL. He's not fully healed yet that's pretty clear. Wait till Wilson is healthy again and magically those OL and RB problems won't prevent him from producing like an elite QB once again. btw.. his rating this year even including the post-injury games is still at 101.2, which is well above average and nothing one could call "awful".

    A bad OL is no excuse for QB performance. If your QB can only succeed with a good OL your QB isn't good enough.
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't think it's unrealistic. My opinion of Tua was based on watching almost all his games at Alabama, and I didn't think we should use #5 on a small QB with a small arm who wasn't driving the bus in the Alabama offense. Had we taken a different player at 5, and used or next pick on Tua, I don't think anyone would be complaining. But taking a QB at 5, just because you need a QB is the same draft mistake we've been complaining about for 20 years.

    Tua can have a good solid career, but that still won't make him worth spending the 5th overall pick on him.
     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    OK well statistically it's unrealistic as I pointed out. The other thing is that reading many anti-Tua or lukewarm-Tua posters' comments I think it's clear many would still be against Tua regardless of draft position. For you maybe not, but I don't think draft position is the issue with many posters, which is why I responded the way I did initially.

    But getting to your point, the question becomes: when do you draft a QB if you don't do it when you have a high pick? You realize that the chances of getting even "decent" vastly diminishes past the 1st round, not because such QBs don't exist but because no GM is good enough to spot them with any decent probability. So while I share the frustration of having to gamble on a QB with a high 1st in the year when we have one, there really isn't too much of an alternative unless the draft has no QBs worth mentioning (looking at Detroit's next draft lol). If Tua ends up solidly above average but nowhere near elite, we should be happy given how difficult it is to get an elite QB.
     
  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's cost-benefit-analysis. Let's be honest: Tua's draft position was based on hype and projections (and Alabama's team performance), not his actual college performance.

    But let's use a hypothetical: it's your team's turn to draft in the first round. You really need a QB, but the best QB available is John Beck. Do you draft him in the first just because you need a QB? No. Especially not if there's a complete stud tackle available, or a 6'4" 220lb 4.3 40 receiver available.
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The Tua hype was as real as for any other highly hyped QB, so you can’t blame the FO for picking Tua high given their own internal projections. That is, from the Dolphins FO point of view Tua wasn’t a reach. They were very happy to get him, and we all know he wouldn’t have been available even a few spots later.

    So based on predraft projections the cost-benefit analysis was in favor of drafting Tua.
     
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Burrow would have won rookie of the year hands down if he didn't have a season ending injury. He's displayed the most potential to be elite of the QB's coming out the past few years.
     
  15. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    And yet the Chargers finished 7-9 last season and currently 6-4 this seasons.

    Fans don’t care near as much about individual players as they do their team winning…and the Chargers are just barely getting by with a slightly above average record.
     
  16. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Haha!!! Great point. Ha!!
    The Chargers were bad enough to be one spot behind us in that draft when they took Herbert. After that, they improved to 7-9 and then 6-4 this season as you said. Uhhh, that’s a pretty big improvement! Ha! C’mon. Using your own faulty reasoning, what is our Phins’ record this season? Great point. Keep it up.
     
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  17. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Ok. Yeah, Burrow has been good as well.
    I agree.
     
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  18. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    LMFAO! Seattle won a Super Bowl with an amazing defense. WTF are you even talking about? Last I checked they had Marshawn Lynch running on everyone. They beat the Broncos 43-8. Lynch ran for damn near 1300 yards and 12 TD's that year. Behind a bad offensive line???? Quit trying to support your blind agenda by making stuff up. This isn't politics. You can't just lie.

    Eli Manning had a bad offensive line? Ok...Yeah, not bad, but not great. I mean at one point both Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs ran for 1,000 yards in the same season behind that bad offensive line.
    Peyton covered up bad offensive line problems? WRONG AGAIN!!!!!! Tarik Glenn, Jeff Saturday! Both had multiple pro bowl seasons and are revered the same way we used to with Keith Simms and Richmond Webb. Lets get real here, you don't like Tua, so you're going to cherry pick anything you can find, go for the low hanging fruit and pathetically make stuff up. Jake Scott and Ryan Diem were both pretty for the Colts as well last I checked. STARTERS....IN THE LEAGUE FOR YEARS.

    I love how you double back to Russell Wilson. BUT.... NO...You're wrong yet again...
    Lets go over the FACTS. Lets ignore whatever stance you personally have against Tua the human being for a second and talk about Wilson.

    Third down conversions. The Seahawks are converting only 32.4% of their third downs. Think about it – the Seahawks are 12 weeks into their season and they are converting just a little over three third downs per game. That’s about as bad as you can get, and it’s not getting better.

    Giving up sacks on third down. Pass blocking hasn’t been good in general on third down. It’s resulted in Wilson either being sacked, trying to force a short throw or just throwing the ball away. Simply put, the pass blocking has got to be better.

    The lack of offensive plays. Because of the problems on third down, the Seahawks’ offense isn’t staying on the field. Seattle’s averaged has dropped to 55 offensive plays a game, and opponents are getting twice the possession time with the football compared to the Seahawks. Pete Carroll is beyond frustrated and baffled at this point.

    The defense is getting worn down. In 11 games, the Seahawks’ defense has been on the field for 72.8 plays a game. That’s 17.8 plays more than the offense. Being on the field so much is why they wear down in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks have had fourth quarter magic with Wilson, but not this year. They have been outscored 78-50 in the fourth quarter.

    SEATTLE'S OFFENSE HAS MUCH BIGGER PROBLEMS THEN RUSSELL WILSONS FINGER! These are all facts that I just presented to you that you simply cannot argue with. It sure sounds to me that football requires a team effort. Wilson is certainly a great quarterback, but he's having a rough season due to everything I just broke down for you in bullet points. In fact, a lot of Wilsons problems seem to mirror what Tua is dealing with. But because Tua doesn't throw a ball 80 yards flat footed people hate him.
     
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  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    LOL. You're the one lying. Seattle's OL was ranked 27th by PFF in 2013 (no good objective metrics, but that's what PFF says). Wilson was constantly having to scramble behind as porous an OL as it gets back then. So stop making stuff up, and this wasn't about defense or RB, just the OL. Wilson was one of the best QBs and won the SB behind a very bad OL in 2013.

    LOL again. Giants OL was ranked 31st in 2011 when Eli won the SB. Again, stop lying to support your agenda.

    Yeah he did, though not every year. OL rankings while in Indy were often below average. Manning had one of the quickest releases and was a field general that made it difficult for the defense to get to the QB.

    More lies from you? Seriously is all you do lie about things? I've been high on Tua the entire time.

    Yeah.. FACTS are you said Wilson is having an awful season even though his rating is 101.2 lol. Facts are he had ratings of 152.3, 128.8, 111.2, 116.0 and 93.7 in the game he got injured. After returning from injury is when he's looked bad with ratings of 39.7 and 80.1. FACT is Wilson was playing elite pre-injury. So you're wrong again.

    You want to know one more FACT? You're the one that's lying.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2021
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  20. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    He has improved somewhat, although not a huge leap. At least this year he knows the offense. He is still fixating on his first read, not seeing the whole field, and missing open receivers. I think he can continue to improve and become a quality starter in the NFL, my only problem is his cieling is quality starter, not elite NFL QB due to his physical and some mental limitations. That and the fact he is never able to complete a full season without getting injured and missing games is why I don't think he was worth a #5 overall pick.
     
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  21. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    You sound like a child at a daycare arguing over who took your toy from you. I'm done with this back and forth...."you are, no you are" so stupid and childish on your part. Clown.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    LOL.. I'm the clown? Listen, pointing out that someone is lying is not the same thing as lying yourself. Anyway, good you're not going to continue with that. It would've been better had you just acknowledged I was right that there were many instances where a QB played well without a good OL (even if OL is often important for QBs) and also that Wilson has not had an "awful" season.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    btw.. nice little Tua stat: 3 games in a row with 100+ ratings, and his rating this year so far is 94.7, which is a tad above league average (92.4). Tua has a chance to keep this up against the Giants and Jets, and he just might end this year closer to 100 than 90. We'll see!
     
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  24. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I feel like after this game all lingering doubts about Tua are gone. I do not think I would consider entertaining any other option at QB.

    Let's just spend some serious resources on getting him a line this offseason.
     
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  25. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I agree about fixing the line but he still needs that #1 target and a receiver like Godwin or Adams would be a gamechanger. Id give up every other receiver not named Waddle.
     
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  26. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    ABSOLUTELY

    Allen Robinson.

    We have to end the Parker era too. The best ability is availability.

    I see the current receiving unit as Waddle, Gesicki, and I would also hold onto Bowden. Everyone else can go.
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Might as well keep track of this: after today Tua's rating is 94.7 and Herbert's is 96.5. It will be hilarious if Tua beats out Herbert in the end given all the talk about Herbert. In the end what matters is production, not how the QB "looks" so it's worth keeping track of.
     
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  28. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    In the last 2 or 3 games Tua has been showing more arm strength than he has previously as a Dolphin.
    I think the talk that the recovery from the hip injury had robbed him of some arm strength which would come back as he recovered has been proven valid.
    He still needs to wind up and step into throws that QBs with elite arm strength can make flat footed, so I’m not suggesting his arm strength is anywhere near upper echelon for an NFL QB. More that it’s adequate enough for a high intelligence, high accuracy style passer a la Drew Brees or Joe Montana.
     
  29. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    At least Herbert threw for 300 yards today. Tua would be lucky to do that!
     
  30. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Zero stupid throws today. I said that is one area that he could really get better at. Early on, he would have about one or two of these per game. Cutting out those small mistakes that are big part of his growth.
     
  31. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    **Ahem...**
     
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  32. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    Logging in from lurking just to say: Herbert compiled numbers while trying to throw them back into a game his poor decisions cost them, including an end zone int AND a pick 6, but that didnt fit your narrative
     
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  33. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    How can you not love this guy?
     
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  34. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=- Club Member

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    Not sure if sarcastic. If so, aye.
     
  35. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    He's being sarcastic.
     
  36. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting breakdown following. On the third play (Waddle's touchdown), am I the only one who wondered why we had two receivers run through the same area? We easily could have gotten a pick if Gesicki contacted a DB.
     
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  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    LMAO, everything he posts is sarcastic. Years ago I wasn't sure either and he bothered me at times, but lately it just cracks me up. He REALLY hates the Tua haters and I wholeheartedly agree with him on the "Herbert-envy" we see out of some folks.
     
  38. Vinny Fins

    Vinny Fins Feisty Brooklyn dolfan ️‍

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    Apologies then folks. I whiff on detecting sarcasm like our linemen on an edge rusher
     
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  39. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division Club Member

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    I never implied otherwise with all the holes this team needs to fill. But primarily the OL. I'm also willing to give Tua some rope for some of his blunders because of it, but having an arm is genetics. Can't teach that so much. I never insinuated Tua can't be serviceable if you keep him within his style of playbook. I simply stated he is not elite level.

    Just like Tannehill wasn't elite but we had to grind away the years to find out. He didn't have a noodle arm, neither Chad Henne. But we spun them tires longer than necessary as well. And just because Tua has a weak arm, doesn't mean he doesn't bring other athletic assets to the table as well as mental awareness (usually) is stuff that doesn't come as easy to a lot of QBs. So there is definitely some talent there, it's just not 'Franchise QB' talent, which I will continue to hope we find 2-3 years down the road, and yall can keep pretending Tua is the answer to our championship slump. Unless we some how manage to put together a top 10 O and D that competes every week.
     
  40. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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