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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The_Dark_Knight, Jan 5, 2021.
And you'll be crying for the next few years, with the rest of us.
But Allen had all the physical tools. Once he got his mechanics and mind right, sky was the limit because he grew into his physical ability. Tua was supposed to be the finished product mentally and mechanically. But it's looking like he's far from it, but he's also maxed out physically. So what is he going to grow into with those limitations, and didn't we draft and invest too much in someone who may or may not pan out, but was supposed to be NFL star ready?
As I said, few QB's "get their mechanics and mind right" when it's as bad as Allen's was. That's often the most difficult part. You shouldn't just ignore that argument. The NFL is littered with physically gifted QB's that couldn't get their mechanics or mind right. Anyone suggesting they thought Allen was going to succeed after posting the 2nd worst passer rating his rookie year with terrible accuracy better prove that with a link to a post of theirs because almost no one thought Allen would make it.
And some of the most successful QB's in history weren't that physically gifted. Adjusted to a common year, Young is the most efficient QB's in history passer rating wise. He didn't have a strong arm and his performance was terrible his first two years. But ultimately his decision making ability made him one of the best QB's in history. Montana was also known for a weak arm and he's 2nd on the all-time list. So even without impressive physical tools you can be one of the best if you have high accuracy and good decision making ability.
No one here can say Tua can't develop that. In fact he was known for his accuracy in college. As has been often pointed out here it's his decision making that needs work. There are MANY cases where QB's developed that with experience. That's why you have to give Tua (and almost any rookie QB) another year at the very least to see if he develops. ONLY if they don't show any signs of improvement do you then start to seriously question if they're the right QB.
I seem to recall a lot of people writing similar thoughts and recommendations for Tannehill on one of this boards predecessors some few yeas back. We used to have a saying that resembled these thoughts...... Something about babies and bathwater.
Young didn't excel until his third team (second NFL team).
Caught this on Facebook; interesting perspective-
The only thing those stats tell us is that they mean absolutely nothing. The guy with the worst numbers is taking his team to the conference championship game and maybe the SB. There are so many other factors in play. What is their ceiling after 9 games? Obviously Allen was nowhere near his ceiling. Tua, on the other hand is already being touted for his accuracy and decision making, not too much room for improvement there, nor is he going to get much bigger, faster, stronger.
After seeing the latest QB out of Alabama, Jones, with better numbers, better size coupled with his performance in the National Title game and, no glaring injury history, would anybody choose Tua over Jones if given a choice? Actually one mock that I saw had the Patriots taking Jones at 16. Next season will be interesting.
What the stats "show" is that you can't make a true evaluation after 9 games. Cam has had several MVP-like seasons and took his team to the Super Bowl (twice or three times? I think twice.). Allen is having an incredible year. Darnold is leaning towards being a bust but he's also had some quality game film- the book is still out on that.
Then there's Tua, who played safe and produced an "okay season" where he likely cost us 1 or 2 critical wins. There's just no way we can say his fate is decided today.
I wasn't a big fan of drafting an injured player. Same with Parker. That being said, I thought Tua played pretty well. I'm to the point that all I want to see is a team that has a chance to win every week. I'm done sweating who's doing it.
Cam has been a huge disappointment for someone taken #1. He's been either around average or below average as a passer except for one year (2015) where he came in #7 in passer rating. That was the year he helped take his team to the SB and won MVP (he went to the SB only once btw).
With his running ability you have to raise his overall value, but overall his production has been just about average.
This was one eval I got right btw, though in 2015 I had to cringe a bit because I thought maybe I was wrong. But someone with great physical traits without the accuracy or good decision making just can't cut it ultimately.
Anyway, not arguing against your overall point that you can't evaluate a QB after 9 games, or just a rookie season, but Cam is more an example of failure than success. Right now it's only Allen you can point to as a potential long term success, though we'll see what happens to him over time.
While I agree with you, if you gave me the choice of having our next QB have the same career as Cam or one that's completely different...I'd say to give us that Super Bowl MVP for one season and I'll hope that our defense can get us back there a few more times.
Just in terms of raw ability, Cam Newton was one of the most enjoyable QB's I ever saw in his prime- which was probably 6+ years ago. He's the only QB I've ever seen that would look at a blitzing linebacker, brace for impact and then knock the defender to the ground like it was no big deal. Just super fun to watch since Cam doesn't take anything in life too seriously...in a way, I don't know if he's ever felt like he was "under pressure" in the pocket.
IMO Newton was also done dirty by the league - the number of brutal hits he took as a passer without roughing calls was silly, and encouraged teams to go all out trying to knock him out.
I agree that Cam Newton is not the ideal QB to draft #1 overall.
But, I think the fact that Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton both made the Super and Lamar Jackson has (at times) made that Baltimore team look unstoppable shows you that there absolutely is another path. It may not be as sustainable as the traditional path, but it can definitely get you there.
And while you can argue that the 49ers D helped Kaepernick and that the same was (to some extent) true with Newton and Jackson, the truth is no team makes the Super Bowl without a good defense.
And you know, as crazy as it sounds, teams can almost become too productive for their own good at QB with the traditional passers. We've seen a lot of teams become overly-reliant on a star QB thinking he alone can make them relevant. Not only did it famously happen with Dan Marino, but we've seen it repeated many times in the modern era, too. You can have an elite QB and still not make a lot of Super Bowl appearances, just ask Green Bay, New Orleans and Indianapolis.
Saw this for the first time recently. Mike Renner from PFF - his take on Tua as a draft prospect:
Tua Tagovailoa is every bit a franchise QB prospect | NFL Draft | PFF
Isn't every QB drafted in the first a "franchise QB prospect"?
Like, what does that quote even mean?
Did you click the link and read the article?
Didn't realize it was actually a link.
Now I see it's from Jan 2020.
Yes, we all know the pundits were talking about Tua being a can't miss prospect.
Yeah, an article from last January, before anyone had seen him play post-injury is just about meaningless.
So... evaluations done on a player over 3 years are irrelevant after a major injury, and rehab, no offseason, and then he gets to play several weeks?
The point of the posting isn't to say that it's the authoritative take on Tua. It's to see what some evaluators were seeing prior to the draft and then take a look what we're seeing now. It's a process. Players develop. Evaluations can be wrong but players don't suddenly stop being who they were. Nevertheless, for the sake of improving evaluations it's worth seeing where things match up and where they don't.
Having said that, it's still too soon to evaluate the evaluations. More needs to be seen from Tua to see how he pans out.
The points of the evaluation(s) are worth bearing in mind though.
Yeah, that's the whole point. We don't know what Tua is going to be. We KNOW what Watson is. He's a KNOWN quantity, with known talent. I'd rather get the sure thing than risk the future of the franchise on an unknown quantity.
Although it's worth remembering that while Watson's talent is a known quantity, the future isn't. Anyone can get injured etc. etc. There are no guarantees.
The other known quantity here is that Watson will cost A LOT. If he's the single key that unlocks a Superbowl for the Dolphins then it's worth paying for. But if they believe in their evaluation of Tua, and Tua is also capable of getting the team a ring or two, then Watson isn't worth paying for, especially considering the cost in picks and players that will hinder the rebuild of other areas of the team.
It's a good situation, because Flores and co can make a real comparison between a known quantity veteran and the guy they see in Tua. They get to make that call with all the cards in front of them.
Still, this is a Tua thread, and there's a separate Watson thread, so rather than focus in on Watson, I just wanted to provide that link to give another perspective on Tua, something to consider about him.
In the middle of the season, I was saying this. I do not think that the talent around him was very good.
That being said, I do have to say that there was compelling evidence to the contrary. I think it is important to take personal feelings out of an evaluation. When Fitz came in, the offense looked significantly better. In the grand scheme of things, I do think that this does matter and needs to be seriously addressed by the big decision makers.
I really think that this should not be the question.
I think that it really should be a four prong question:
What QBs do you think are significantly better than Tua/show better potential?
Are they available?
What would it take to acquire them?
Would you be willing to pay that price?
I think that a lot of people see this question as a referendum on Tua. I do not think that this the case at all. If you think there is a QB that is significantly better or has a greater upside, it is a testament to that particular QB - not an indictment on Tua.
I wanted Herbert. I support Tua, and think he still could become a good player. I think Watson is a top 5 QB in his prime. I think Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are two of the best QB prospects that I have seen in the last 5 years. I can believe all of these things at the same time.
I would absolutely inquire about Watson, but I would have a "walk-away" price. I would seriously consider taking Wilson at 3 if he was available. I think having Tua prevents me from overextending myself.
Well, yeah. But it's not the talent that's the main issue. It's the price.
As someone who is still firmly in the "Tua is going to turn out pretty good or great" camp, I would, in a vacuum, take Deshaun Watson and ship Tua off in a heartbeat. The problem is, the team is one player away from where it wants to be, and Houston's asking price would likely be astronomical - and that's assuming Watson would like to play for Miami.
That aside, I don't think there's any QB talent we can realistically go after that'd be guaranteed or even likely to be better than Tua. So, with that said, I'd stick with Tua.
Your idea of what is an acceptable price may be and likely is different from the idea the front office has.
I'll be astounded if Tua is ever "great." I think that Tua will be a good QB, and will have a decent career.
I wish we had traded back in that draft, I think we still could have gotten him.