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Tua Might Be Out Multiple Weeks

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 29, 2020.

  1. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I dont agree with the way he phrased it or his overall insinuation that any player or QB from a major program is fools gold.

    That said, I do agree with his take on Tua specifically. The fact it when you look at the tape you dont see anything different from a Matt Leinart except some pocket mobility.

    It's not fair to discount people who actually watched him play and came to the conclusion "This guy isnt NFL level in his skillset"

    It's fine to disagree, but in the end what I hear from fans is this:

    Dolphins need QB, Tua is QB, TUA GOOD!
     
  2. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I didn't say discount- you don't discount an elite player because he's surrounded by 10 other elite players. I'm just saying the sum of their parts makes it harder to evaluate individual talent. For instance, some have said here that Tua was a pure pocket passer, which is always true when your QB never has a need to leave the pocket. That's not what we're seeing today though. The same goes for those Alabama receivers- if they were 1:1, throw it their way and it was a big completion....and probably a TD. That doesn't work at the NFL level.

    Again, that's not a knock on anyone...but Alabama (and a few others like you said) have mastered high school scouting/recruiting. If you're the elite of the elite, then you're probably looking at Alabama or Clemson 1st to maximize your college career.
     
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  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I've said it many times, and I'll say it again...i became an Alabama fan like 20 years ago, as I had a couple friends in college who were big Bama fans, so I've watched most every Alabama game, and I never watched Tua and thought, "MAN, I hope the Dolphins can draft this kid.". He just never seemed to be the guy running the show.

    Like others have said, I hope I'm wrong, and I hope that Tua is the guy. I know he was hyped by all the smart people and all the talking heads.
     
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  5. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    You just named a bunch of quarterbacks with the exception of maybe 3 or 4 that have had actual consistent success the last 5 years. That have gone deep into the playoffs consistently.
     
  6. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Isn't Fritz a free agent next year?
     
  7. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    You missed the point. I'm simply saying that it's quite normal for football players to suffer injuries. Their playoff track record is irrelevant. I'm simply stating the fact that all of these starting quarterbacks have had significant injuries.
     
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  8. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I havent seen many claim hes a purely pocket passer. The claim I've seen more, and my personal claim, is that hes a lot more mobile than your standard Drew Bledsoe statue but doesnt compare to guys you would consider a "Dual Threat".

    Those guys typically have more than straight line speed, they have better agility and quick twitch acceleration.

    I've said this 100x but I really think Tua needs to hit the weight room and increase his arm talent/strength. If he can do that, in my opinion a lot more of his game will come together cohesively in my opinion.

    I'm not talking about his arm when he can step into it over the middle and sling it, I'm talking about throwing when conditions arent ideal or to the outside hashes. That is where I feel he is behind currently.
     
  9. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Tua most definitely has got a long way to go. I'm not arguing that at all. Maybe I'm simply misunderstanding the perception of him from a few of you. Is it the one bad game against Denver and that's it for you guys? Or is it more, Tua just simply isn't ready?
    For me personally, I didn't like the initial switch back in October. I thought Fitzpatrick should have remained in place as the starter. I though Tua should have been redshirted this year. Then...we make the switch. We don't lose, Tua manages the games he's played in, but his only truly impressive showing comes in thrilling fashion against Arizona. So...we've seen the talent...It's there. Is that it? Was this just a preview? I'm fine with that if so. I'm fine with Fitzpatrick finishing out the year. It's just a bit puzzling for me personally. I've never seen it done that way. It's created a bit of confusion.
     
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  10. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Yes and my point is, those starting quarterbacks with injuries are doing as expected, taking their franchise on a treadmill ride.

    Tannehill is a clear example..

    missed 25 games his last 3 seasons in Miami... we did nothing, got to a playoff game with Moore and we got destroyed, looked like we didnt belong..

    Tannehill in Tennessee - has yet to miss a game, went to the conference championships and is currently in the division lead.
     
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  11. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It is funny that Tua had all these great receivers and somehow he's not responsible for the accolades when they did well, but comes to a team where the receivers are having problems getting separation at all and he's had some limited success but somehow now he's entirely to blame for the passing woes. He hasn't been throwing people open but I think this will come with time as he get's used to the game speed.
     
  12. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    No he doesnt get credit for wide open receivers he had no part in getting open, I dont understand why he would? If it's a play where he looked them open, sure, but that isnt the majority of what was happening at Alabama.

    Let me ask you, was Timmy Chang an NFL level prospect or did his offense create a lot of wide open receivers?

    I'm not comparing them talent wise, I'm saying of course you dont get credit for throwing to wide open players, every QB alive can do that.
     
  13. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully he learned from sideline yesterday that Nfl open and.college open are 2 different things.Parker never gets much separation but he makes up for it with box outs and jump balls not to mention back shoulder.
     
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  14. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. A wide open receiver in the NFL is almost ALWAYS a soft spot in a zone or a busted coverage rather than a guy just creating immediate space, especially on the outside.

    Parker isnt the best at creating immediate separation (the type that is possible, let's say a slant), but his skill set more than makes up for that.
     
  15. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But Fitz had limited success in the passing game yesterday against an 0-10 team. And he's not hurt. And he's throwing them open according to the announcers anyway. So maybe it's just not all on Tua for the lack of output on the offensive side of the ball. Maybe our WR's aren't just open.
     
  16. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Excuse my replies with multiple periods.I am terrible on cell phones.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    One bad game is enough when the reason for the bad game -- being inexperienced in reading and reacting to NFL defenses -- is 1) something that can't be corrected by a rookie QB in the remaining games, 2) makes the team highly likely to lose, and 3) wins in the remaining games are necessary to make the playoffs.

    You have to remember that for Tua's first few games in the league, the film on him was limited. When you have three games of film, you then have a lot more to look at in devising a defensive strategy against him. Denver did that well, and now the whole league knows the "formula." He'll get better.

    It all makes sense when you consider that they were determining whether to stick with Tua in 2021 or draft his replacement. They were going to make that determination until such time that playing Tua made the team more likely to lose, and that happened against Denver.
     
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  18. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Tua will have his chance to return and hopefully play better. Im not sure he gets the starting job this year though.

    but i will say one thing... we hve seen how Brian Flores works when it comes to managing his roster/depth chart.. he is not going to tie his career with a quarterback.. if Tua does not make that gradual improvement you expect to see, Flores is going to cut ties with him quick.

    Hell i wouldnt be all too shocked if after the Lions release Stafford in the upcoming offseason, that Rumors start to come out about the Dolphins interest in bringing Stafford for a quarterback competition. Hes another often injured quarterback but Flores loves competition.
     
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  19. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    Back up quarterback coach, of course.
    The real question is "How fragile is Tua, and is this just the beginning of a need for a second-string starting quarterback, or worse - as in a quarterback rotation depending on the whim of the staff?"
     
  20. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'll explain myself.

    I was very much on the "Tank for Tua" bandwagon at the start of last season, despite the fact I hadn't seen any film on him. He was the consensus #1 guy and it didnt seem like anyone would be close and we needed a QB. Enter Joe Burrow.

    Burrow starts to succeed and make it a debate. In any debate you want to know what you're talking about and form your own opinion whether you are right or wrong after all.

    Watching Tua for me he just seems to have a really awkward skill set. Here is my overall analysis and it includes what I saw in college and what I've seen so far.

    Hes mobile but not like most mobile QB these days. In other words he can buy time in the pocket or run on a busted play but he isnt pulling a Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Mahomes, ect impression anytime soon. That is more of a plus than a negative overall though.

    What I dont like is that he doesnt seem to have the arm talent to make the best use of his mobility. Hes fine rolling left, but to the right he just doesnt have the arm to get it there without being able to reset his body.

    In other words hes a moderately mobile QB who doesnt have the arm to make best use of that mobility.

    Also while I dont penalize him for coming from a strong team, it makes it hard to evaluate how much that player is doing and how much is the talent around him.

    For instance if his second read is wide open and he finds him for a long TD, how much of that is Tua and how much of that is the receiver being wide open? It's even harder to quantify when it's the first read which it often was.

    People often cited his ability to go through his progressions. He does, but not always as quickly as youd want and I believe you did see that reflected in Denver.

    I didnt believe his deep ball accuracy would transition well for various reasons. His arm already isnt the strongest, the balls are more contested, it's usually not the first guy you look to, I believe the NFL ball is larger as well which feeds into the arm talent.

    He can sling it when he gets his body behind it but his throws to the right hash are scary. He needs to hit the weights or do something to get the arm strength up so that it compliments his mobility and opens up the field.

    I dont see a guy with no talent, I see a guy with a really awkward skill set for the modern NFL that I'm not sure fits into being an elite franchise leading QB.

    I had them ranked Herbert, Burrow, then Tua. Honestly had Herbert not been available at #5 I'd probably have been happier with the pick because we needed a QB.

    I'm stuck in "Hope Tua can improve the areas he needs to in order to be successful but I'm not overly optimistic" mode.

    I will close out this long post noone will read all of with some positives.

    He is deadly accurate when he just needs to put the ball in a specific place without thinking too much. This makes him great inside the red zone. He has overall good mechanics except rolling to his right so that's a plus. He is mobile enough if he gets his other skillset working with it as well.

    Also like I've said I think he needs to start so we can see what we have sooner rather than later.
     
  21. canesz06

    canesz06 Well-Known Member

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    I was going to use Timmy Chang as an example too. He put up ridiculous numbers in college and I'm not even sure he got drafted. Another example is Ken Dorsey when he was at Miami. The teams he played on were as good if not better than the teams tua played on and Dorsey was an excellent college QB. He lost 2 games his entire career but he was not an NFL caliber QB. He just played on some amazing teams. I think that's exactly what we have with tua
     
  22. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    There's a difference between being injured and being hurt. I get the impression Tua is hurt. Fitz is a luxury that allows us to sit Tua until he's closer to 100%. I'm not concerned at all.

    Well, no more than usual, that is.
    [​IMG]
     
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  23. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I mean in my opinion Tua is basically mobile Matt Leinart.

    Smart kid with good accuracy and leadership skills, but doesnt open up the whole field at the NFL level or necessarily have "Franchise" QB skills across the board.

    The fact they are both left handed has nothing to do with it but is a funny coincidence.

    Leinart had some bad luck with injuries and I dont know if he would have been more successful. Also like I said Tua has a leg up in mobility. So it's not a complete negative, just my evaluation/comparison. .
     
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  24. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Leinart has bad luck with injuries but Tua is injury prone. After 4 games he doesn't open up the whole field at the NFL level or has franchise QB skill. Geez. Good think its not all completely negative. LoL
     
  25. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Two elective surgeries to limit future high ankle sprains, which is one of the more regular injuries in the NFL
     
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  26. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Why do people keep saying 4 games? He has an entire college career to analyze his abilities.

    I havent based a single perception off only his NFL time.
     
  27. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're judging him not on how he's playing in the NFL but how he played in college and then projecting what you think he might do. Well this explains a lot.
     
  28. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I didnt say or imply any of that but okay.

    What I'm doing is giving my analysis of him in college AND his first four games here.

    Sorry but I dont want to live in a world where people who dont scream the company line out loud arent allowed to voice their opinion. That sounds like a dictatorship to me.

    Since you dont believe a person should base their analysis on college or the NFL, what should they base it on? You must have the answer and I'm 100% open minded in hearing what that is.
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think it's better to ignore college performance if the goal is to predict or evaluate NFL performance. There are FAR too many busts among QB's picked high in the draft by the ones who should know best — scouts, GM's, etc — suggesting you're probably introducing extra uncertainty (rather than reducing it) by including college performance.

    As far as I'm concerned, it's only Tua's 4 NFL games that matter for evaluating his ability at the NFL level.
     
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  30. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    That's absolutely asinine in my opinion, with all due respect.

    You're suggesting his arm magically becomes a cannon by the simple process of being drafted and that its impossible to judge something that can be quantified, among other things.

    The fact that humans can be wrong doesnt equal the idea that evaluation is impossible or not worth it, sorry.
     
  31. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I never suggested that. I'm saying that even the best in the business don't know HOW to use such measurables from college to accurately predict NFL performance. There have been lots of QB's with great arms that failed in the NFL, lots of QB's with all kinds of great measurables that failed. People simply don't know how to use that kind of information well, and I think that if you're using that information in addition to NFL performance, you're probably going to make less accurate predictions.

    The best predictor of NFL performance is NFL performance, and that's what we should stick to.
     
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  32. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Here is the flaw in that argument, as I see it.

    Nowhere did I ever say he was doomed in these posts or that his college career would be entirely indicative of his career.

    Nor did I say my evaluation was necessarily right or the only viewpoint.

    I merely pointed out my -personal- beliefs based on the things I've seen. In other words I'm trying to use some sort of evidence to come to a conclusion, whether it ends up being the right one or not I'm using the best process we know of.

    Let me ask you this, why would anyone want him then? If only NFL tape matters none of you were entitled to a pre-draft opinion either.

    This just seems like a massive double standard because people cant handle things they dont agree with.
     
  33. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Nothing wrong with having an opinion, but like I said I think there's good reason to think the last part of that last sentence of yours is incorrect: it's probably not the best process in this case.

    You can only use the information you have. So pre-draft you can only use college performance. There's no other option. Once you see NFL performance however, all that pre-draft analysis should go out the door because the goal of the pre-draft analysis was to predict the very thing you can now directly observe.
     
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  34. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Let's start really really basic so we can get on the same page because I feel like this is a circular debate going nowhere on either side currently.

    1) Would you agree that the phrases "This is what I believe" and "This is an absolute truth" are different?

    2) Would you agree that players dont magically change in physical attributes just by being drafted?

    3) Would you agree that regular people who are not professionals are entitled to have an opinion based on their research? Not that they are necessarily correct, but that people are allowed to accumulate data and making a wrong decision on that is more respectable than blindly following and being right? Excluding something like medical advice which is not really analogous to most situations.

    4) Would you agree that there is a difference between me using college tape along with NFL tape to analyze Tua and doing the same with a veteran like...Tom Brady?
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yes to all, but I don't think any of that is relevant to the point I made in post #69, which is that you're probably introducing rather than reducing uncertainty into your predictions of NFL play by including college play, even for a rookie like Tua.
     
  36. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Okay, we can get there now.

    The way I see it is that the college film becomes less relevant the farther away from that point you get. In other words, 4 games isnt enough to provide a full analysis on his NFL ability.

    So in my opinion the best thing to do is to take that pre-draft analysis and see how it compares to what is currently being seen on the field.

    It's not that I'm saying "In college Tua couldnt do X so in the NFL he will fail at X".

    What I'm saying is "Based on what I saw pre-draft I had these questions about Tua. These are the things I think we are seeing on the field that relate to those issues and here are ways he has surprised me positively"

    I'm not posturing that college tape is the best or ideal way to evaluate an NFL player. I'm saying let's take what we think we knew and compare it to what we think we know now.
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I understand what you were saying. I still think my point is valid even after only 4 games.

    Using more information (i.e., what we thought pre-draft) isn't necessarily better if your goal is to accurately predict something. You have to always take into account whether using more information introduces greater uncertainty, and unless you're far better than the pros at using college measurables to predict NFL performance I think what I said applies.

    Don't forget, all this started because you asked why some people kept saying "4 games". I think there's a really good reason to only use the 4 NFL games. So this is really answering a question you asked.
     
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  38. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Well I can take disagreeing as long as we know where the other is coming from. That should be the basis of any debate, laying out and understanding the thing being talked about rather than changing the mind of the other person.

    It seems like we have both accomplished that, so I'll just say I respect your point of view but differ in a few, but honestly not entirely massive, ways.
     
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  39. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Can I take a dump here...yeah, I'm gonna take a dump here

    [​IMG]
     
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